Including my series plays, I had another solid day on the NHL last night, going 4-1 to win 3 units. The Panthers advancing was huge, and although I lost my Vegas/Stars series hedge, in hindsight it was the smart play after Game 2. Tonight we have fo…
Including my series plays, I had another solid day on the NHL last night, going 4-1 to win 3 units. The Panthers advancing was huge, and although I lost my Vegas/Stars series hedge, in hindsight it was the smart play after Game 2. Tonight we have four Game 5s with every series 3-1. Let's win and see some more handshake lines with one of my biggest cards ever!
The Leafs are in complete disarray and find themselves now a game away from elimination in Boston tonight. They were completely outplayed on Saturday with a 3-1 loss at home, as Jeremy Swayman was great in goal once again. Mitch Marner was a complete liability, and that even boiled over onto the bench with William Nylander telling him that "stop fucking crying bro, this isn't fucking juniors". This core for the Leafs is donezo and I'd assume Mitchy Marner's getting shipped out of the 6 in the offseason. The season's over tonight. Toronto's switching goalies with Joseph Woll confirmed in goal tonight, but I don't see that mattering. The B's win this one easily tonight once again at home in Boston to advance and play a rematch of last year's first round against the Panthers. I have a pretty big bet on this series to go over 5.5 games, which wins with a Leafs win tonight, but that's not happening and it'll lose 5.64 units. I'm up a solid amount this round so I'll go pretty hard on this and I'll hedge out of that series bet completely with my biggest play of the playoffs, with 7 units on the Bruins moneyline and 2 units on the puck line. I've hit "game of the years" the last two years in a row against the Leafs, so let's stay hot here and get an easy win. Let's Go B's! Blow Leafs Blow! I'd slightly lean the over on the game but not enough to bet it.
Game 5 - Hurricanes vs. Islanders (7:30)
The Islanders hung in Game 3 on Saturday to win a game of this series on Mathew Barzal's game winner 1:24 into double overtime, avoiding the sweep with a 3-2 win in a game that really could've gone either way. I don't see the Isles sticking around in this one in Raleigh, and I fully expect the Canes to end this series tonight. I cash in my four unit prop on Carolina to win this series in six games or less with a win tonight, along with another 3 units on them to get it done in exactly 5 games. I really like those props and not only am I letting them ride, I'm doubling down on Carolina here with 3 units on them in regulation. I'd lean the under very slightly, but not enough to bet it.
Game 5 - Jets vs. Avalanche (9:30)
The Avalanche took a commanding 3-1 win in this series on the back of Valeri Nichushkin's first playoff hat trick on the way to a 5-1 win at home. I thought this would be a much better series than it has been, but the goaltending and defense for the Jets has been pathetic. The likely Vezina winner in Connor Hellebuyck has had a horrible series, allowing at least five goals in every game of this series, including their win in Game 1. I think the Colorado offense ends this series tonight. If this series ends tonight, I'd lose just under six units. If the Jets win, I'll win two units. I'm going to hedge against that hard here, similar to how I did in the Bruins game. The price on this game is way cheaper than I expected. I'll take the Avalanche moneyline and team total over 3.5 for 4 units each, along with a unit on the puck line, a unit on their team total over 4.5 and 1.5 units on the over on the game. Let's crush it. Go Avs Go!
Game 5 - Canucks vs. Predators (10:00)
The Preds completely fucked me on Sunday night as they blew a 3-1 lead in the final three minutes of the game, going from a triple winner for me to win over 4 units, to a triple loser as they gave up the game tying goal with around six seconds left in regulation and then losing in overtime. Nashville's the better team in this series and especially with the Canucks having all the injury issues with their goaltenders, it's wild to me that this series is now 3-1 Canucks heading back to Vancouver. DeSmith is projected to be back in between the pipes tonight. I still think Nashville should win this series, although that will be a tough task to pull off at this point. I have a relatively small 1.5 unit bet on the Preds to win it, which I added after Game 2. I'll partially hedge against that tonight with 1.5 units on the Canucks team total over 2.5. I don't see them winning again with just two goals, and ideally they lose a high scoring game where they score 3 to cash this bet and my series bet on the Preds stays alive. Whoever comes out of this series, I'm hammering the Oilers (or if they pull off a miracle, the Kings) against in the second. I'd lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
7u Bruins ML (-166)
2u Bruins -1.5 (+164)
3u Hurricanes in regulation (-150)
4u Avalanche ML (-118)
4u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (+105)
1u Avalanche TT over 4.5 (+230)
1u Avalanche -1.5 (+205)
1.5u Avalanche/Jets over 6.5 (-122)
1.5u Canucks TT over 2.5 (-160)
Series Bets
4u Hurricanes in six games or less (-155)
1u Hurricanes in five games (+300)
3u Bruins/Maple Leafs over 5.5 games (-188)
2u Avalanche/Jets over 5.5 games (-188)
.5u Avalanche/Jets over 6.5 games (+200)
1u Jets +1.5 games (-165)
3u Oilers (-190)
1.5u Predators (-105)
Futures
4u Vegas Golden Knights - Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
4u Dallas Stars - Stanley Cup Champions (+850)
3u Carolina Hurricanes - Stanley Cup Champions (+650)
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