Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2.40) vs. Shamil Gaziev (1.58)
Rozenstruik is 7-5 in UFC, 13-5 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-W-L
Gaziev is 1-0 in UFC, 12-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Rozenstruik (35) had no answer for the grappling of Jailton Almeida once on the ground, losing via first round submission in their main event last May. At the end of 2022 he had rebounded from a two-fight losing streak to knock out Chris Daukaus in just 23 seconds. Perhaps had an argument for an early stoppage in a first round KO loss against Alexander Volkov in their main event. 2-3 in UFC main events having picked up wins over Alistair Overeem - a KO with four seconds remaining in a fight he was losing - and Augusto Sakai (KO) and one other loss against Cyril Gane (decision). Has struggled to break through a ceiling to the very top of the division having suffered other losses to elite HWs Curtis Blaydes (decision) and Francis Ngannou (KO) since 2020 - one other UFC win over that period against Junior dos Santos (KO). Made a perfect 4-0 start to his UFC career in 2019, including a pair of very fast KO victories over Andrei Arlovski (29 seconds) and Allen Crowder (9 seconds). Debuted in the UFC in February 2019, coming back from a tough first round to beat Junior Albini via second round KO. First came to prominence when he fought Andrei Kovalev (9-1) in Rizin, winning a split decision against the previously undefeated Ukrainian. The first UFC fighter to fight out of Suriname, although there have been a number of top Dutch kickboxers with Surinamese heritage. Professional Muay Thai/Kickboxing background. 12/13 wins by KO. Trains at American Top Team.
Gaziev (33) gets elevated to main event status with just one UFC win under his belt - a sign of the potential UFC feel he has. He looked outsanding in his debut at UFC 296, pressuring Martin Buday from the opening bell and eventually forcing the referee to step in due to unanswered strikes a minute into round two. Earned a UFC contract after submitting Greg Velasco (6-1) in the first round on the 2023 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. Arrived on the UFC radar after putting together a 2-0 run in Brave FC including a win over a UFC veteran in Darko Stosic (KO). His best career win is over another accomplished Russian HW Kirill Kornilov (15-1-1), which is the only one of his professional fights that has seen the scorecards. Other notable successes over Pavel Dailidko (7-2) and Grigoriy Ponomarev (6-3). 11/12 wins inside the distance (8 KO, 3 SUB). 9-2 as an amateur. Gigantic HW weighing in close to 265 lbs. Some question marks around his cardio having faded in the second half of the Kornilov fight - has never seen the championship rounds. Fights out of KHK MMA Team.
Big step up in competition for Gaziev - I think he will burst out of the gates quicker, the question is can be finish Rozenstruik before he starts to fade.
Prediction: Gaziev by submission in round 1.
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Alex Perez (3.75) vs. Muhammad Mokaev (1.28)
Perez is 6-3 in UFC, 24-7 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-L
Mokaev is 5-0 in UFC, 11-0-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Perez (31) didn't fight at all last year having had to withdraw from a fight with Manel Kape at the twelfth hour in March. He's only fought once in over three years, easily getting submitted by the current FLW Champion Alexandre Pantoja in just 91 seconds at UFC 277. Also submitted in the first round by Deiveson Figueiredo in his FLW title shot at UFC 255 - poor submission defence is a recurring theme with 5/7 losses by submission. Earned his title shot by winning six of his first seven UFC fights, including first round finishes of Jussier Formiga (KO) and Jordan Espinosa (submission) in 2019. One other UFC setback against one of the all time best FLWs Joseph Benavidez (KO) at the end of 2018. The first product of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series to fight for a UFC title; he was involved in the first season back in 2017, running straight through Kevin Gray (9-7) in less than three minutes. Won his other four UFC contests against Mark De La Rosa (decision), Jose Torres (KO), Eric Shelton (decision) and Carls John de Tomas (submission) with minimum fuss. Experienced in a number of U.S. regional promotions, including Tachi Palace Fights (10-3), RFA (1-0) and CFFC (1-0). Regional losses in the few years prior to arriving in the UFC against UFC veteran Jared Papazian (submission) and Adam Antolin (15-6). 12/24 wins by decision but he's shown real killer instinct in the UFC. Trains at Team Oyama.
Mokaev (23) added a relatively big name to his resume when he submitted Tim Elliott in the third round at UFC 294. That was his third third round submission in a row having tapped Jafel Filho with a neck crank - showing impressive grit to not tap to an earlier fully locked-in knee-bar - and Malcolm Gordon with an armbar from his back at UFC 280. Faced almost zero adversity in his first two UFC fights, The dropping the second round before eventually forcing a tap with an armbar in the third round. Made a very strong start to his UFC career earlier in 2020, winning virtually every second of his contest with Charles Johnson (decision) and submitting Cody Durden inside a minute in his UFC debut. Made it to the highest level of the sport within 18 months of beginning his professional career having attracted a lot of attention as a standout amateur, going 23-0 and a multiple time IMMAF-WMMAA Champion. Most of his regional career took place in Brave CF, where he went 4-0-1 with good wins over Abdul Hussein (9-2) and Blaine O'Driscoll (9-5) as well as a no contest due to an accidental groin kick. British citizen but very much has the strong grappling style you would associate with his Dagestani heritage. Has competed at both FLW and BW but is competing in the UFC at 125. Trains at KHK MMA Team.
This is good matchmaking if you want to continue to build Mokaev - his offensive grappling strengths align perfectly with the struggles Perez has had in this area.
Prediction: Mokaev by submission in round 2.
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Vitor Petrino (1.30) vs. Tyson Pedro (3.50)
Petrino is 3-0 in UFC, 10-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Pedro is 6-4 in UFC, 10-4 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-L-W
Petrino (26) had a very impressive first year in the UFC, completing a 3-0 year with a second round KO of Modestas Bukauskas in November. Prior to that he had distinguished himself as a LHW prospect to watch with wins in a back-and-forth UFC debut against Anton Turkalj (decision) and a much more one-sided win over Marcin Prachnio (decision) at UFC 290. One of the standout graduates from the 2022 season of year's Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, finishing a guy now also in the UFC in Rodolfo Bellato (KO). That was his second win over Bellato having also knocked him out in 25 seconds in hiss 2019 pro debut. Has a win over UFC veteran Gadzhimurad Antigulov (KO) in a lone appearance for UAE Warriors, plus another notable win over Ewerton Polaquini (8-4-1). 7/10 wins by KO. Fights out of CM Systems.
Pedro (32) is 3-1 since returning from a long absence in 2022; he rebounded from a loss to Modestas Bukauskas (decision) at UFC 284 to beat Anton Turkalj (KO) at UFC 293. Prior to that he had picked up easy first round finishes in generous matchmaking against Harry Hunsucker (KO) and Isaac Villanueva (KO). His final UFC appearance before disappearing for almost three and a half years was a third round KO loss to Shogun towards the end of 2018. Other UFC losses against Ovince St.Preux (submission) and Ilir Latifi (decision) after making a very bright start to his UFC career with first round finishes of Khalil Rountree (submission) and Paul Craig (KO). Signed with a very inexperienced 4-0 record on his native Australian MMA circuit. Also has a UFC submission win over Saparbek Safarov. Owns a good Australian regional win over Steven Warby (8-4-1). All nine pro wins inside the first round (5 SUB). Has spent time at Jacksons MMA but primarily based at Lions High Performance Centre.
Survive the first round and your chances of beating Pedro increase substantially - I think Petrino is able to do that and finishes in the second half of the fight.
Prediction: Petrino by KO in round 3.
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Umar Nurmagomedov (1.08) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (8.00)
Nurmagomedov is 4-0 in UFC, 16-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Almakhan makes his UFC debut, 14-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Nurmagomedov (28) picked up the biggest win of his career so far when he knocked out Raoni Barcelos at the beginning of last year. He enjoyed a successful 2022 with dominant wins over Nathan Maness (decision) and Brian Kelleher (submission). Debuted in the UFC at the beginning of 2021, submitting Sergey Morozov in the second round. A highly touted cousin of current UFC LW Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov who has won all 16 professional MMA fights since debuting at the end of 2016. 5-0 in Fight Nights Global and 2-0 in PFL. Good career wins over UFC veteran Saidyokub Kakhramonov (decision), Fatkhidin Sobirov (14-5-1), Wagner Lima (16-8-1), Taras Gryckiv (19-8) and Sidemar Honorio (13-8). Strong wrestler - as you would expect with his lineage - but also a much more well-rounded fighter compared to his famous cousin. 7/16 wins by submission. Trains at Eagles MMA and American Top Team.
Almakhan (26) is the latest Kazakh with an impressive looking professional record to arrive in the UFC. Unlike some of his contemporaries, he has a number of impressive wins on his record including Aydin Kodekov (11-6), Bekzhan Utemisov (7-3), Sabuhi Guliev (11-7-1), Geovane Vargas (11-5-1), Jenilton Matos (12-7), Mauro Mastromarini (16-3), Mateus Gloria (12-5-2) and Yan Ferraz (15-6). One career loss against Sultan Zholdoshbek (18-2). 12/14 wins by KO.
Almakhan looks a very good addition to the BW division but this is a massive step up in competition against a likely future BW Champion.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by submission in round 2.
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Eryk Anders (1.20) vs. Jamie Pickett (4.80)
Anders is 7-8-1 in UFC, 15-8-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-W-L
Pickett is 2-6 in UFC, 13-10 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-L-L
Anders (36) has lost three of his last four following a loss to Marc-Andre Barriault (decision) at UFC 289; the only success over that period was a finish of Kyle Daukaus (KO) with the other losses coming against Jun Yong Park (decision) and Andre Muniz (submission). Went 1-1-1 across 2021 having also beaten Darren Stewart (decision) in a rematch of their earlier fight that was ruled a no contest due to an illegal knee. Only fought once in 2020 - dropping a decision against Krzysztof Jotko - after finishing 2019 with a pair of wins against Gerald Meerschaert (decision) and Vinicius Moreira (KO). Those were much needed wins after a three-fight losing streak, which culminated in one of the most lopsided fights you'll see go to a decision against Khalil Rountree. Two of the fights in that losing streak came up at LHW (the other being a third round KO loss to Thiago Santos), with a decision loss to Elias Theodorou (decision) at MW sandwiched in between. I could see the logic in trying his hand at LHW given the speed issues he has been having at MW. His other UFC loss was a fairly contentious decision to Lyoto Machida in the Dragon's final UFC fight. Other UFC wins over Tim Williams (KO), Markus Perez (decision) and Rafael Natal (KO), who he impressively dispatched in his UFC debut inside three minutes. Graduated from LFA, where he was 2-0 and MW Champion after beating UFC MW Brendan Allen (decision). 9/15 wins by KO, 6/8 losses by decision. Trains at Spartan Fitness.
Pickett (35) would have almost certainly been cut by now if he hadn't shown a willingness to fights guys who missed weight and take short notice opportunities; he's lost four in a row with setbacks in 2023 against Josh Fremd (decision) and Bo Nickal (submission). 2022 started well with a win over Joseph Holmes (decision) but he then went on to lose against borderline UFC-level talents in Denis Tiuliulin (KO) and Kyle Daukaus (submission). One other UFC win over Laureano Staropoli (decision). Lost his UFC debut on the final show of 2020 against fellow debutante and Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series graduate Tafon Nchukwi (decision) before getting finished in 64 seconds by Jordan Wright (KO) at UFC 262. Awarded a UFC contract on the 2020 edition of DWTNCS, beating Jhonoven Pati (8-6) by KO. Also appeared on the first and third seasons of DWTNCS, losing against Charles Byrd (submission) and Punahele Soriano (decision) who both ended up being given UFC contracts. Lacks any other notable wins from his time on the regional circuit. 8/13 wins by KO but appears to lack finishing ability at this level. 6/10 losses inside the distance (4 SUB). Trains at Port City Sports Performance.
Pickett is obviously not UFC level; while Anders has not delivered on his early career promise, he is proven to be multiple levels above Pickett.
Prediction: Anders by KO in round 3.
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Matt Schnell (4.00) vs. Steve Erceg (1.25)
Schnell is 6-5-1 in UFC, 16-7-1 overall. Last 5: W-NC-L-W-L
Erceg is 1-0 in UFC, 10-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Schnell (33) beat Su Mudaerji (submission) last year in what was one of the best UFC comebacks of all time and certainly one of the best fights of 2022 but this was sandwiched in between defeats against Brandon Royval (submission) and Matheus Nicolau (KO). In 2021 he picked up a split decision win over Tyson Nam in January before losing to Rogerio Bontorin (decision) at UFC 262 - the latter later got overturned to a no contest due to a failed drug test. Missed all of 2020 after getting knocked out by Alexandre Pantoja on the last event of 2019 - 4/6 of his UFC losses have been by KO. Before that he had been in great form, winning four in a row including back-to-back first round submissions of Jordan Espinosa and Louis Smolka in 2019. Picked up his first UFC win at the third time of asking at UFC 216 - winning a unanimous decision against Marco Beltran - and followed that up with a convincing decision win over Naoki Inoue in June 2018. A short notice replacement fighting above his usual weight class for his UFC debut; he was given a rude welcome to the UFC by ranked BW Rob Font (losing via first round KO). Knocked out by Hector Sandoval with punches from guard in his FLW debut - something you rarely see these days, let alone at 125. Competed on TUF 25, losing to eventual winner Tim Elliott in the quarter finals. 5-2 in Legacy Fighting Championship prior to appearing on TUF. Tall FLW (5'8). 9/16 wins by submission. Trains at American Top Team.
Erceg (28) made a very assured debut at UFC 289, picking up a unanimous decision win over David Dvorak. The Australian FLW had nothing left to prove on his regional scene after winning eight fights in a row. He competed for the two top Australian promotions Eternal MMA (7-0) and Hex Fight Series (1-1) - for the former he picked up wins over UFC veterans in Shannon Ross (submission) and Seung Guk Choi (decision). Other decent career wins over Soichiro Hirai (4-3) and Tim Moore (12-8). One career loss against Sean Gauci (8-1) in his second professional fight. 6/10 wins by submission. Fights out of Wilkes Martial Arts.
Schnell is difficult to back given his chin issues.
Prediction: Erceg by submission in round 2.
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Javid Basharat (1.12) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (6.50)
Basharat is 3-0-1 in UFC, 14-0-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-NC
Zahabi is 4-2 in UFC, 10-2 overall. Last 5: L-L-W-W-W
Basharat (28) saw his UFC 294 fight with Victor Henry end in disappointing fashion when his opponent couldn't continue after a low blow. Earlier in 2023 he extended the successful start to his UFC career with his third win in a row over Mateus Mendonca (decision). Entered the UFC in 2022 and immediately underlined his high potential with wide decision wins over Trevin Jones and Tony Gravely. Impressed on the 2021 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, laying a sustained beatdown on Oron Kahlon (14-2) before finally forcing the tap in the final minute of the fight. The U.K-based but Afghan-born BW picked up good wins over Alexander Bezkorovayny (14-2-1) and Wisam Mamoka (5-2) on the European MMA scene. 3-0 for UCMMA, 1-0 for Oktagon MMA and 1-0 for BAMMA. 11/14 wins inside the distance (5 KO, 6 SUB). Trains at London Shootfighters.
Zahabi (36) is on a three-fight win streak having finished Qileng Aori (KO) just 64 seconds into their UFC 289 contest. He has treated his UFC career as a part time hobby, content to fight sparingly with the other wins in that streak coming over Ricky Turcios (decision) in 2022 Drako Rodriguez (KO) in 2021. His UFC career was initially in some jeopardy following back-to-back losses against Vince Morales (decision) and Ricardo Ramos (decision). Won his UFC debut back in 2017, beating TUF Brazil winner Reginaldo Vieira (decision). The brother of famed TriStar trainer Firas Zahabi, trains at TriStar Gym. Technical kickboxer who has finished 8/10 wins inside the distance (5 KO, 3 SUB).
This will be competitive on the feet but I think Basharat is the far more well-rounded fighter and will make that tell on the ground.
Prediction: Basharat by KO in round 2.
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Ludovit Klein (1.10) vs. A.J. Cunningham (7.00)
Klein is 4-2-1 in UFC, 20-4-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-D-W
Cunningham makes his UFC debut, 11-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-W
Klein (29) was fortunate when a harsh point deduction for a groin shot allowed him to salvage a draw with Jai Herbert at UFC 286 but he then went on to pick up a good win over Ignacio Bahamondes (decision) later in 2023. Enjoyed a good 2022, winning both appearances against Devonte Smith (decision) and Mason Jones (decision) after deciding to move up to LW. In contrast he had a disappointing 2021, suffering setbacks against Mike Trizano (decision) and Nate Landwehr (submission) in his final contests at FW. Made a great start to his UFC career at UFC 253, finishing Shane Young with a head kick and follow up punches in just 76 seconds. Distinguished himself as one of the best LWs in Europe on the Czech/Slovak MMA scene, going 5-0 in top regional promotion Oktagon MMA including a highlight reel KO of UFC veteran Lukasz Sajewski. Owns a number of other notable wins including Joao Paulo Rodrigues (37-21-2), Willian Lima (14-3-1), Arbi Mezhidov (17-5), Matej Kuznik (16-9), Krzysztof Klaczek (12-7), Ahmed Abdulkadirov (9-2) and Khusein Maltsagov (5-2). Two other career losses, one in Cage Warriors against Aiden Lee (11-8) and another against Igor Tarytsa (4-2). Good finisher with 16/20 wins inside the distance (8 KO, 8 SUB). Boxing background. Trains at Spartakus Fight Gym.
Cunningham (29) seizes a short notice opportunity having come up short against Steven Nguyen (KO) in an appearance on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series last year. A veteran of several North American regional promotions including LFA (1-1), Fury FC (1-0) and iFF (1-0). Lacking any real statement wins on his record with the best coming over Shea Conley (7-6), Jonathan Jackson (6-5) and Charles Bridges (5-3). Other career setbacks against Javier Garcia (11-5) and Chris Hatley Jr. (12-8). 8/11 wins inside the distance (4 KO, 4 SUB). Has alternated between FW and LW throughout his career but debuting at LW.
Cunningham's record doesn't look UFC level, nor did he look UFC level on his Contender Series appearance. Klein is rightfully a big favourite here.
Prediction: Klein by KO in round 1.
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Christian Leroy Duncan (1.33) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (3.40)
Duncan is 2-1 in UFC, 9-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-W
Ribeiro is 1-2 in UFC, 11-4 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-L
Duncan (28) can be satisfied with his first year in the UFC; he did suffer his first career setback against Armen Petrosyan (decision) but either side of that emerged with victories over Denis Tiuliulin (KO) and Dusko Todorovic (KO) - granted the latter was lucky when his opponent injured his knee early in the fight. Graduated from Cage Warriors as reigning MW Champion having won the belt against Djati Melan (8-1) and defended against Marian Dimitrov (10-4). All of his regional career took place in that organisation since debuting in 2020, owns two wins over another good English MW prospect in Will Currie (11-3). 7/9 wins by KO. Extensive experience as an amateur (17-6). Fights out of Range Martial Arts Academy.
Ribeiro (31) fought three times in his first year with the UFC, picked up a win over Joseph Holmes (KO) sandwiched in between KO losses to Abdul Razak Alhassan and Roman Kopylov. He made it an easy decision for Dana White to award him a contract following a 25-second KO win over Ivan Valanzuela (8-3) on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2022. The Brazilian is a KO artist having won 11/11 fights by knockout including winning the vacant Future MMA MW title against Kelles Albuquerque (25-20) plus other solid wins over Moacir Rocha (12-7-1) and Diego Rodigues (4-2). Setbacks earlier in his career against Kevem Felipe (7-6) and Guilherme Miranda (18-9). Fights out of Brazilian Black Thai.
Duncan is a clear favourite for me, he's much more technical and cleaner on the feet.
Prediction: Duncan by KO in round 2.
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Loik Radzhabov (2.40) vs. Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady (1.58)
Radzhabov is 1-1 in UFC, 17-5-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Al-Selwady makes his UFC debut, 15-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Radzhabov (33) came through a tough test from Esteban Ribovics (decision) in his short notice debut at UFC 285 but was comprehensively beaten by Mateusz Rebecki (KO) three months later - the first finish loss of his MMA career. Best known for his involvement in two seasons of PFL, where he went 4-4-1 with wins over UFC veteran Chris Wade (decision), Alex Martinez (10-5-1), Akhmed Aliev (21-8-1) and Ylies Dijroun (21-8). Losing finalist in both years against Natan Schulte (25-5-1) in 2019 and Raush Manfio (17-5) in 2021, other losses against UFC veteran Rashid Magomedov (decision) and Martinez. Notable wins earlier in his career over Sado Ucar (19-6), Damir Mihajlovic (18-8) and Burak Kizilirmak (9-2). 12/17 wins inside the distance (7 KO, 5 SUB). Well-rounded.
Al-Selwady (28) earned a UFC contract with a very assured performance over George Hardwick (12-2) on last year's Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. He was given that opportunity as reigning Fury FC LW Champion, winning the vacant belt against Michael Murphy (8-8-1). Competed for Brave FC earlier in his career, picking up wins over UFC veteran Lucas Martins (KO), Erick da Silva (23-9) and Charlie Leary (17-13-2) but finishing his time there with losses to Luan Santiago (21-7) and Dumar Roa (13-15). 8/15 wins and 3/3 losses by KO. Trains at Fortis MMA.
This should be a competitive affair but I think Al-Selwady will be the minute winner, I was very impressed with his activity in his Contender Series fight.
Prediction: Al-Selwady by decision.
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Vinicius Oliveira (1.80) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (2.00)
Oliveira makes his UFC debut, 19-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Sopaj makes his UFC debut, 11-2 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-W
Oliveira (28) is an aggressive Brazilian who punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round KO of Victor Madrigal (15-5) on last year's Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. Prior to that he went 5-1 in UAE Warriors, winning their BW Championship against Xavier Alaoui (14-5) and defending against Sylvester Chipfumbu (10-5) before losing his belt to Ali Taleb (9-1). Other good wins in that organisation over Hikaru Yoshino (12-4), Sultan Zholdoshbek (18-2) and Furkatbek Yokubov (10-4). Other career losses to UFC veteran Cristian Quinonez (KO) and Adriano Ramos (13-5). 15/19 wins by KO as well as all three losses. Fights out of Sombra Team.
Sopaj (23) fills in on about a week's notice to make his debut - the Albanian who fights out of Sweden has fought for a number of organisations with the most notable a 1-1 spell with Brave FC where he defeated Tariq Ismail (7-1) and lost to Francesco Nuzzi (10-1-1). Other good career wins over Geovane Vargas (11-5-1), Julian Pierre Lopez (6-3-1) and Apostolos Geropouls (5-3). One other career defeat to Alexey Shaposhnikov (9-4). 10/11 wins inside the distance (7 KO). Fights out of Allstars Training Center. Quite short for BW (5'6), I wouldn't be surprised if he moves down to compete at FLW for his second fight.
Oliveira will be too big and aggressive for the late replacement.
Prediction: Oliveira by KO in round 2.
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