Lightweight Bout
Luigi "The Italian Stallion" Vendramini vs Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett - This is a very interesting fight as Pimblett has a lot of hype and popularity and he is finally making his UFC debut against a tough test in Vendramini. I'm having a hard time gauging where Vendramini will really settle into this division as he got knocked out by former top ranked Welterweight Elizeu Zaleski in his UFC debut, followed that up with an upset knockout victory over Jessin Ayari but then just dropped a majority decision to Fares Ziam. While this is Pimblett's UFC debut, the guy has faced some solid competition in the past as he has notable wins over Ashleigh Grimshaw and Julian Erosa while two of his three pro losses have come against Nad Narimani and Soren Bak. Pimblett is the former CWFC champ and I don't think octagon jitters are going to effect him here so Vendramini is going to have his hands full. Vendramini has a style that could seriously give Pimblett problems though as he hits hard and has some decent grappling skills. The UFC is great at signing prospects with hype behind them like Pimblett, and then giving them an awful stylistic match-up in their debut and ruining them. I could see that happening here if Vendramini is able to keep this fight on the feet but I'm still leaning towards Pimblett as I'll say he can initiate the grappling exchanges and win the scrambles to earn the decision.
Pick: Paddy Pimblett by Decision

Light Heavyweight Bout
Khalil "The War Horse" Rountree vs Modestas "The Baltic Gladiator" Bukauskas - This is an important fight for both of these Light Heavyweights as they both still have a lot of potential, but they are both coming off back to back losses and could be cut with another. Rountree is a confusing fighter to gauge as he looked fast and explosive and knocked out big name kickboxer Gokhan Saki before getting knocked out by Johnny Walker. He came back from that loss after training in Thailand and looked like a whole new fighter, fighting from a Muay Thai stance, ripping low kicks and really battered Eryk Anders for a unanimous decision win. Since then he has switched teams a couple times and hasn't looked nearly as good as he was knocked out by Ion Cutelaba and dropped a decision in a favorable match-up against Marcin Prachnio. Bukauskas came to the UFC with some hype behind him as the former CWFC champ and knocked out Andreas Michailidis in his octagon debut. Things haven't gone as well since as he was knocked out by Jimmy Crute and then dropped a controversial split decision to Michal Oleksiejczuk. Despite Rountree having more experience in the UFC and Bukauskas being just 1-2 in the UFC, Bukauskas seems like the more reliable fighter at this point. We sort of know what we are getting with Bukauskas and with him being still just 27 years old, we still may see some improvements. Rountree on the other hand, looked incredible against Anders and then looked awful in his last fight against Prachnio. Even if a good version of Rountree shows up I could see Bukauskas giving him problems, so I'll go with the more consistent fighter here.
Pick: Modestas Bukauskas by Decision

Welterweight Bout
David "Sagat" Zawada vs Alex "The Great White" Morono - This fight doesn't make any sense to me at all. Morono has been making a name for himself lately and is coming off the biggest win of his career by knocking out Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and he is currently ranked #35 in the Welterweight division on Tapology. Meanwhile, Zawada is coming off a split decision loss to Ramazan Emeev and is currently ranked as the #73 Welterweight on Tapology. I'm not opposed to pairing a fighter coming off a loss against one coming off a win, but for that to make sense, usually the guy coming off the loss would have to be ranked higher and be the bigger name. Zawada is a dangerous fighter so Morono can't overlook him, but overall this seems like a step backwards for Morono. This should set Morono up to be coming off back to back wins and look to get a bigger name next,
Pick: Alex Morono by Decision

Heavyweight Co-Main Event Bout
#13 Tom Aspinall vs #14 Sergey "Polar Bear" Spivak - This is a big fight for the Heavyweight division as these two young rising contenders have been climbing up the division quickly and a win here is going to put them facing someone in the top 10 next. Both of these fighters could be the future of this division as they are both just 28 and 26 years old respectively and are already ranked in the top 15 showing they have high level skills and still plenty of room to improve. Aspinall is a -280 favorite at the time writing this and 88% of the picks on Tapology are going towards Aspinall as well. Spivak is dangerous and if Aspinall gets careless he could make him pay but this looks like a favorable match-up for the Team Kabon product. Aspinall is much faster, he's the better striker and he has a black belt in BJJ and will be able to hold his own should there be any grappling exchanges. I expect Aspinall to pick Spivak off before that even occurs however as his speed advantage should allow him to land strikes on Spivak as he attempts to grapple and put him away.
Pick: Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO RD 1

Middleweight Main Event Bout
#5 Derek Brunson vs #7 Darren "The Gorilla" Till - This is a huge fight for the Middleweight division and for both of these fighters as the winner could push towards the title picture. For Brunson, his last loss was to the current champ Israel Adesanya and since then he has looked like a changed fighter, no longer rushing into brawls carelessly but instead fighting at a much smarter and controlled pace. This has led Brunson to a four fight winning streak with victories over Elias Theodorou, Ian Heinisch, Edmen Shahbazyan and Kevin Holland. Since his title loss to Tyron Woodley in 2018, Till has only won 1 fight. Till was knocked out by Jorge Masvidal before moving up to Middleweight where he took an impressive split decision win over Kelvin Gastelum but then dropped a decision to former champ Robert Whittaker after. Till somehow is still up in the title picture as current champ Israel Adesanya keeps mentioning his name and the two have been going back and forth a bit so a win here would put him right in the mix in the top 5. Till has all the skills to be champion but he has yet to really put everything together and has been struggling as of late. That being said, he looked good in his fight agaisnt Gastelum and looked good in his fight against Whittaker as well and it seems as if he is starting to find his rhythm. Brunson is going to be a very tough test, as long as he fights patient like he has been he can frustrate Till on the feet, he has the power to turn his lights out and the wrestling to control him and make him uncomfortable. Till controls distance better however, despite being at a slight reach disadvantage in this fight, his strikes are more accurate, he's better defensively and his takedown defense is solid. I could see this one going either way, it depends on what version of each fighter shows up on fight night. If Brunson is able to remain composed and mix up wrestling with his striking to continually frustrate and control Till then he should ride out a decision. But if Till shows up in the right mindset and is able to stop a few of those takedowns early and force Brunson to trade with him on the feet, then we can see a bit of the old careless Brunson come out and Till will score the knockout. Flip a coin, Brunson seems like the more consistent fighter as of late but 5 of his 7 pro losses are by KO/TKO and against an accurate striker like Till who has solid takedown defense, that worries me. I'll take a flier on Till and say he can keep Brunson off him, force some striking exchanges and find the knockout somewhere in rounds 2-4.
Pick: Darren Till by KO/TKO RD 3

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