Bolaji Oki vs Chris Duncan - This should be a fun fight. Oki looked a bit flat in his UFC debut but he still got the win and I'm going to chalk that up to UFC jitters. This is a solid step up in competition for him and yet, he's still the favorite. Duncan is the more experienced guy and he has good low kicks and wrestling which are what I see as his keys to victory. Oki is the better athlete, more explosive, faster, hits harder, and has better hands. On the feet, I just see him landing the more impactful shots and I don't think Duncan's chin will hold up.
Pick: Bolaji Oki by
Nora Cornolle vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti - Cavalcanti is stepping in here on short notice to fight Cornolle for the second time in their careers. Cavalcanti won their last meeting, but that was over 3 years ago and she's coming in here on short notice after just competing recently. Honestly, I haven't been impressed with Cavalcanti and she just went to a split decision against Josiane Nunes who's much smaller and throws a lot less volume. Cavalcanti's style allows her to be in fights that become much closer than they should be. Pair that with the way Cornolle has been overachieving, her being closer to Cavalcanti's size, and Cornolle having the crowd on her side, I think she can edge out a close decision.
Pick: Nora Cornolle by Decision
Daniel Barez vs Victor Altamirano - This is an interesting fight. I believe Altamirano started as a slight underdog but I see he's moved to a slight favorite now. I don't see much upside in either guy but if I had to give the edge to one of them it would be Altamirano. Barez might be the more dangerous finisher though, but the longer this fight goes, the more it will favor Altamirano. I expect Barez to maybe get round 1, but Altamirano to take over and win 2 and 3.
Pick: Victor Altamirano by Decision
Ailin Perez vs Darya Zheleznyakova - This was a harder fight to pick than it maybe should have been for me. Perez isn't very good, but she's aggressive and will continually look for takedowns. Zheleznyakova is a decent striker with some good power, but her takedown defense is awful. Both fighters have a path to victory. If it's on the feet, Zheleznyakova will outclass Perez and land some powerful shots, but if Perez can crash in and close the distance, she can get the fight to the floor. I'm going to take a shot on Zheleznyakova as the underdog. Perez is good at getting takedowns but isn't great about keeping her opponent there and Zheleznyakova has at least shown a willingness to attempt to fight back to her feet. On the feet, Zheleznyakova will piece Perez up and even though Perez will be landing takedowns, I see her tiring out first and slowing down as the fight goes. The crowd will be on Zheleznyakova's side and should help sway the judges.
Pick: Darya Zheleznyakova by Decision
Taylor Lapilus vs Vince Morales - This is a setup to get Lapilus in the win column. Morales is back in the UFC and he's a well rounded fighter and a tough scrappy type of guy, but he's not great anywhere. Lapilus looks like he's better everywhere and has multiple paths to victory. Which one he'll choose I'm not entirely sure, and while I'd like to see him push for a finish, I'm leaning more towards him playing it safe and taking a decision.
Pick: Taylor Lapilus by Decision
L'udovit Klein vs Roosevelt Roberts - Roberts is stepping in here on short notice to replace Nikolas Motta. Why is Klein fighting either of these guys? Absolutely awful matchmaking. Klein should be facing top 15 competition or at least close to it and instead he's fighting backwards. Klein dominates and anything less than a finish is a disappointment.
Pick: L'udovit Klein by KO/TKO RD 2
Oumar Sy vs Da Un Jung - I used to have a higher expectation for Jung and while he's lost to some decent competition, his losing streak has pretty much made me sell all my stocks. Sy has only had 1 UFC fight so far but he looks like a solid prospect. I wouldn't be shocked if Jung's experience shows here and he pulls off an upset to halt his losing streak, but his trajectory looks like it's going to keep going down. Sy has the tools to win this fight and the crowd on his side to help him win rounds.
Pick: Oumar Sy by Decision
Ion Cutelaba vs Ivan Erslan - Cutelaba is trash, I've said it for the longest time and don't understand why he's still in the UFC besides him getting attention by painting himself green. Erslan isn't that good either, don't necessarily get the signing other than a guy who can potentially put on a fun fight and is a European fighter to stick on the Paris card. If Cutelaba fights smart, which I don't think I've ever seen happen, he'll wrestle Erslan and do damage on the ground. Instead he'll probably rush out and strike with him and Erslan is the better striker and has better cardio. Even if Cutelaba wrestles, he'll probably gas out and allow Erslan and opportunity to come back anyway. Give me Erslan to win by KO within two.
Pick: Ivan Erslan by KO/TKO RD 1
Fares Ziam vs Matt Frevola - I pretty much only see this fight ending in 1 of 2 ways. Either Ziam wins by Decision or Frevola wins by Knockout. Ziam is the more technical striker, has much better defense, has never been knocked out, and is taller and has the reach advantage. It won't be as exciting, but give me Ziam to win on points.
Pick: Fares Ziam by Decision
Morgan Charriere vs Gabriel Miranda - Miranda is stepping in here on short notice to replace AJ Cunningham. Cunningham is basically a punching bag so this is sort of a step up in competition. Miranda is dangerous with his grappling but he'll be outclassed on the feet and I don't see him having much success getting the fight to the floor. This looks like a setup to get Charriere in the win column and I'll say he does so in impressive fashion.
Pick: Morgan Charriere by KO/TKO RD 1
Kevin Jousset vs Bryan Battle - Honestly I've never been that high on either fighter here but they've proven me wrong and have been winning. Battle has been more impressive to me as he looked like a well rounded fighter on TUF who could fight to his opponent's weakness but it didn't look like it would translate to the big leagues. Since then he's made massive improvements and has had a solid UFC career so far. I see Battle having more ways to win this fight. Jousset is probably the better striker, but Battle has ways to have success on the feet in this fight. He can't stand in front of Jousset looking to exchange or counter, that's a losing battle, but a winning tactic for Battle would be to use his low kicks and stay on the outside or crash the distance and grapple. Battle is the better grappler, he's durable and his fight IQ has been pretty good. Jousset hasn't really shown the power needed to get the respect of Battle and take him out of his game. I expect Battle to mix it up and beat Jousset up on his way to a decision win.
Pick: Bryan Battle by Decision
William Gomis vs Joanderson Brito - I feel like for Gomis to win this fight, he'll have to be almost perfect. He'll need to avoid the power and the grappling of Brito, stay on the outside and play the matador, pick his shots, and win the rounds. Brito is really aggressive, hits hard, has a sneakily dangerous grappling game and is going to keep coming after him. Gomis style can be frustrating and with the crowd on his side I do expect him to make this close, but I'm sold on Brito. Brito looks like a future contender and I think his aggression and power shots win out.
Pick: Joanderson Brito by Decision
Nassourdine Imavov vs Brendan Allen - Allen has come out and said this should be the main event and I kind of agree with that, especially with this fight having title implications. This was the hardest fight on the card for me to pick. Both fighters have the tools to win. Imavov is the better striker, he's got good defense, he throws good volume, and he has excellent takedown defense. Allen hits hard, he's aggressive, and he's definitely the better grappler so if he gets this to the floor, Imavov will be in trouble. Allen being in a close fight with Chris Curtis and then coming into Paris to face Imavov doesn't look great to me. If Allen lets this be close, the judges will probably side with Imavov. My gut was originally siding with Allen, but the more I looked at it, it will probably be close and Imavov should get the nod.
Pick: Nassourdine Imavov by Decision
Renato Moicano vs Benoit Saint-Denis - This is going to be a fun fight for however long it lasts. The longer it lasts, the more it could favor Moicano, but Moicano is a slow starter and that might bite him in the ass. Saint-Denis has shown some cardio issues that Moicano could exploit, but he's going to have to weather an early storm and I'm not sure he'll be able to. Even if this fight goes longer, Saint-Denis is ridiculously tough and Moicano isn't a striking threat at all. Saint-Denis is a good grappler so he'd have to be completely gassed to get submitted I think, but I'll say he gets Moicano out of there before it even gets that far.
Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis by KO/TKO RD 1
No comments:
Post a Comment