Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin - Both of these fighters have their problems, but Dumas is 28 and still improving whereas Tiuliulin is 36 and set in his ways, and those ways aren't UFC level. Tiuliulin is a hard-nosed brawler and he can crack, so if Dumas gasses out or overlooks him, he can lose, but he has all the tools to win if he fights smart. Dumas is bigger, has the reach, is faster, the better athlete, and the better grappler. Dumas should put Tiuliulin away within two rounds, and he could KO or submit him, but I'll say he gets it done with strikes.
Pick: Sedriques Dumas by KO/TKO RD 1
Jai Herbert vs Rolando Bedoya - This is an interesting pairing as Bedoya is moving down to Lightweight and trying to get his first UFC win. Herbert is the slight favorite as Bedoya is 0-2 in the UFC and moving down, but Herbert is 36 and hasn't fought in over a year. There's a chance Herbert catches Bedoya and puts him away, but Bedoya pressures a lot, throws a ton more volume, and was able to survive at Welterweight without getting knocked out. Give me Bedoya to outpace Herbert and win the rounds
Pick: Rolando Bedoya by Decision
Victoria Dudakova vs Sam Hughes - This was a pretty easy pick for me. I've never been very high on Hughes, but I do see paths to victory for her here. Dudakova just looks like the better fighter though. Dudakova is younger, still improving, is the more accurate striker, hits harder, is better defensively, and is the better wrestler. Hughes could outpace her and throw more volume to win the rounds, but the damage and control time for Dudakova should get her the nod.
Pick: Victoria Dudakova by Decision
Guram Kutateladze vs Jordan Vucenic - Vucenic is stepping in here on short notice to make his UFC debut and this is a great matchup. Kutateladze defeated current top ranked contender Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut but he's fought infrequently since and lost his last 2 bouts. This was the hardest fight on the card for me to pick. Kutateladze is the favorite but it's hard to trust this guy as he hasn't fought in over a year and his cardio isn't good. Vucenic usually pressures heavily in his fights which could find him success here but the short notice and location of the fight worry me. I have a feeling Vucenic is going to win, but the location of the fight makes me think the judges will favor Kutateladze. Kutateladze should win round 1 and as long as he can win enough of round 2 and survive to the final bell, he should get the nod.
Pick: Guram Kutateladze by Decision
Shamil Gaziev vs Don'Tale Mayes - Gaziev's last performance was so bad that it was embarrassing. That being said, this looks like a setup to get him back on track. Mayes has tools to win this fight, he's a big Heavyweight, he's got some power, and he can fight from range which could give Gaziev problems. The problem is Mayes fight IQ isn't good, and he'll probably play into the game of Gaziev. If Mayes takes his time though, he has the reach advantage, throws more volume, and probably has better cardio. He can win the rounds in an ugly decision but we have to see how Gaziev looks and how he approaches this fight. If Gaziev steamrolls him early I can see him putting him away or if he wrestles and fights slower I can see him winning rounds, but both options can also go terribly wrong for him too. It's hard to pick Gaziev after that last outing but being close to home for him should aide him in this one as well as this being a decent matchup.
Pick: Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO RD 1
Mohammad Yahya vs Kaue Fernandes - Fernandes is too big of a favorite here and Yahya is being a bit underrated, but I'm still going with Fernandes to win. Yahya isn't as bad as they are making him out to be in the odds and this is essentially a home game for him so the judges could go in his favor if it's close. I could see it being close too, Fernandes doesn't have great defense and Yahya has solid wrestling and could rack up some control time. Fernandes is aggressive though and should win the striking exchanges and that aggression should look good on the scorecards.
Pick: Kaue Fernandes by Decision
Alonzo Menifield vs Azamat Murzakanov - I've given up on Menifield, the guy's fight IQ is just awful. He's super explosive and has one shot knockout power, but his cardio issues remain and while we've seen him pace himself, he seems to always revert back to rushing for the finish and gassing out early. Against a guy like Murzakanov who's super dangerous as well and better defensively, he'll likely run into a knockout blow before the final bell.
Pick: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO RD 2
Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener - This was a tough fight to pick but the more I looked into it, the more I liked Brener as an underdog. Alvarez is a huge lightweight and his long lanky frame could give Brener some problems, but Alvarez doesn't fight very often, Brener is the better striker, and Brener is a high level grappler as well. Brener either knocks Alvarez out early or does damage and stays ahead until the final bell, either way I like him as an underdog pick.
Pick: Elves Brener by KO/TKO RD 1
Mackenzie Dern vs Lupita Godinez - I thought this would be a closer pick for me, but the more I looked at it, the more I favored Dern. She's brought Jason Parillo back in her camp to help with her striking which gives me a little more confidence and this is a good stylistic fight for her. Godinez will still have the edge on the feet, but she pressures forward and throws volume and is at her best when she's using her wrestling. This is all going to open up the grappling opportunities for Dern. Once their on the mat, Dern will have a big advantage. Godinez also has bad fight IQ and fights into her opponent's game constantly, so I see her walking right into the grappling exchanges and giving Dern the chance she needs to lock something up.
Pick: Mackenzie Dern by Submission RD 2
Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa - This isn't the worst matchup for Ferguson as he's the better striker and his best submissions are the exact submissions that Chiesa is known to get caught in. That being said, it's impossible to pick Ferguson at this point. Ferguson's game relied on his durability, athleticism, and ability to create chaos. Even at his best, his defense was bad, but he could take a shot, put pressure on his opponents, get them out of position, and find openings. With his durability declining, he doesn't walk through shots as well anymore, with him getting older, his ability to create pressure and outwork his opponent is gone too, and that means the chaos that he thrived in just isn't there anymore. In a more reasonably paced fight, Chiesa is bigger, stronger, the better wrestler and grappler, and should be able to have success.
Pick: Michael Chiesa by Submission RD 3
Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo - This is a big test for Figueiredo and I'm a little surprised to see him as the favorite. I do think he can win this fight though. Figueiredo is older, he's smaller, and I'd argue he's not as durable, which makes picking him extremely risky. That being said, he's faster, he hits hard, he's got the better wrestling and better ground control. For Vera to win this fight, I feel like 1 of 2 things will need to happen. 1, he could catch Figueiredo with a knockout shot or submission and that's the most likely way he wins, or 2, he'll have to change the entire way he fights. Vera lets his opponents dictate the fight far too often, he lets rounds slip away as he looks for the big shot to end the fight or he'll spend too much time on his back looking to land elbows or a submission. He gets those finishes frequently, but he doesn't win rounds frequently. Figueiredo is going to win the rounds, and while the chances will be there for Vera to get a stoppage, Figueiredo is a former champ and has the heart and fight IQ to push through. This is also a massively important fight for Figueiredo at his age if he wants to get a shot at the 135lb title, and him training with Khabib before this tells me he knows that and is planning on taking advantage of Vera's complacency being on his back.
Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision
Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk - This fight was put together on short notice and that could play a factor, especially for Magomedov. He's had some cardio issues and I don't know how well prepared he'll be going into this. That being said, it's hard to pick against him in this spot. Oleksiejczuk is hard to knockout though, it's only happened once in his career and that was back in 2014. Magomedov has questionable cardio and his defense isn't good, so there's a chance he gasses and Oleksiejczuk marches him down and lands some shots to put him away. Magomedov is better with his kicks and controlling range though so he should win the first round and enough of the second to then coast to a win.
Pick: Shara Magomedov by Decision
Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov - This is a massive fight for the Bantamweight division as the winner could be looking at a title shot next. Originally looking at this I was thinking about taking a shot on Sandhagen as an underdog. He's long and lanky, he's super dangerous everywhere, he's smart, and he's going to make this a tough fight. Looking at it more, Nurmagomedov is efficient and smart as well and Sandhagen has struggled with higher level grapplers. Aljamain Sterling was able to take him down and submit him quick and TJ Dillashaw was able to give him problems with his wrestling as well. Nurmagomedov is efficient with his defense and he should be able to stay safe on the feet, land some shots of his own, then get his grappling going and keep Sandhagen on the defensive long enough to win the rounds.
Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
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