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Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Olympics Golf – Gambling/DFS Preview 2024

This week golf goes international as every country competes in the Olympics at Le Golf National in Paris, France. https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-HLHhZtlw-/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== Course Breakdown Par 71, 7…
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Olympics Golf – Gambling/DFS Preview 2024

By Anthony Falcone on July 31, 2024

This week golf goes international as every country competes in the Olympics at Le Golf National in Paris, France.

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Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7174 yards, the Par 3s aren't too long with two around 170 yards and two around 210 yards, there's two short Par 4s around 380 yards and four between 400-450 yards and another four between 450-500 yards, the Par 5s are reachable in two, narrow fairways with rough, bunkers and water if you miss the fairways, the fairways have severe undulations and mounds with rarely a flat lie, the first cut of rough is 2.5 inches that goes about 5 yards from the edge of the fairway with the second cut at 3.5-4 inches, average sized to above average sized greens with a poa bentgrass blend, greens are guarded with water and bunkers with thick rough

Tournament Notes

  • This course hosts the French Open on the DP World Tour most years and hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup
  • No cut event
  • 13 of the last 17 winners of the French Open have had a T25 finish here prior to their win

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG

Corollary Courses

TPC Sawgrass - course is setup pretty similar

Field

60 golfers - Top four golfers from each country across tours in OWGR rankings, very good high end of the field of PGA and LIV players with a pretty lousy low end

Gold Medal (2021): Xander Schauffele

Silver Medal (2021): Rory Sabbatini

Bronze Medal (2021): CT Pan

Players

Scottie Scheffler: 12500: +400 - The best golfer in the world, has dominated small no cut events this year, 7,1,41,1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1,10,3,6,17,5 finishes this season, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 3rd in Good Drives Gained, 7th in Fairways Gained, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, I think the price is good considering he really only has to beat half of this small field

Collin Morikawa: 10200: +1000 - Playing excellent golf lately, 16,4,13,14,2,4,4,16,9,3 finishes in his last ten events, 17th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 1st in Good Drives Gained, 1st in Fairways Gained, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance

Tommy Fleetwood: 9500: +2000 - Outside of the US so I can see him medal and even possibly win, won at this course in 2017 at the French Open and went 4-1 in the Ryder Cup here, MC,34,15,16,20,21,26,13,49,3,7 finishes in his last eleven events, 13th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 6th in Good Drives Gained, 4th in Fairways Gained, 24th in Par 3 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 11th in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 39th in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T5

Corey Conners: 8900: +3300 - Has the talent to medal here and pops in my model, 25,10,27,9,20,6,26,13,44,38,25,13,18 finishes in his last 13 events, 3rd in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 12th in Good Drives Gained, 9th in Fairways Gained, 13th in Par 3 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 19th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T5

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Good Drives Gained (5%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogey Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 35 rounds

Bets

Outrights

2u Scottie Scheffler (+400)

1u Collin Morikawa (+1000)

.5u Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)

.4u Corey Conners (+3300)

T5s (including ties)

.5u Tommy Fleetwood (+300)

.4u Corey Conners (+450)


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