June has been a turbulent month for the UFC. The month began with UFC 302, which looked solid on paper, but wound up being a decision-fest that ended with Dustin Poirier strongly hinting at retirement. The following week's card was a record-setting Fight Night in Louisville and had a very entertaining main card, but ended with controversy. Next week's card, which is a stacked televised event in Saudi Arabia, lost its original main event. The final event of the month, which was supposed to feature the return of Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler, got scrapped.
With all that happening recently, it's understandable that tonight's card is falling way under the radar. That and the fact that this is the only June card to happen in the sterile UFC APEX. Oh, and the fact that the other two Fight Nights all have good start times, while this one has a main card that starts at 10pm Eastern time. Each of the other four cards have much more name recognition. This one, despite being fully televised and having some pretty fun fights on paper, is one of the most hollow and uninspiring televised cards of the ESPN era.
It doesn't help that this card lost two of its three best fights, including the co-main event. The co-main event was supposed to pit Andre Muniz and Ikram Aliskerov against each other, and Aliskerov was kept on the card after Muniz got hurt. However, after Khamzat Chimaev got sick on Thursday and had to bow out of next week's headliner slot, Aliskerov got moved to that card. Then yesterday, the headlining prelim bout between Tagir Ulanbekov and Joshua Van, which was the second-best fight left on the card, got scrapped after Ulanbekov missed weight by several pounds. As a result, the prelims are entirely skippable aside from the new headliner, which should be entertaining but doesn't have high stakes to it.
On the bright side, the main card is entertaining on paper. The main event between former Flyweight title challenger Alex Perez and unbeaten Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira is a fascinating fight, and good test for the latter. The new co-main event between Douglas Silva de Andrade and Miles Johns is solid. The Flyweight bout between Asu Almabaev and Jose Johnson is a quality fight too, and the same goes for Lucas Almeida vs. Timothy Cuamba. The other two main card bouts should be fun, if nothing else. Only the hardest of hardcore fans will care about this card, or at least the main card, but at least they won't need ESPN+ to view it. Regardless, here's how I think the main card will play out.
Main Card (10/9c, ESPN2 and ESPN+)
Josh Quinlan (6-2) vs. Adam Fugitt (9-4)
If nothing else, this is a fun fight to start the main card. Quinlan and Fugitt have only gone the distance in three of their combined 21 fights, and just once in their six combined UFC bouts. Both are lower-level fighters in the UFC at this point, and both are 1-2 inside the octagon. I guess I'll pick Fugitt, but this one is a coin flip. Prediction: Fugitt via tko, round 2.
Asu Almabayev (19-2) vs. Jose Johnson (16-8)
Aside from the main card opener, the rest of the main card is all Flyweights and Bantamweights. Almabayev has a great record, is 2-0 in the UFC, has four wins over current and former UFC fighters and is a pretty slick grappler. He hasn't lost in over seven years, has won 15 straight fights and should be facing a better opponent. Meanwhile, Johnson is 1-1 in the UFC, doesn't have nearly as good a resume, has seen three of his last five scheduled fights get scrapped, and is a heavy underdog. Almabayev should win this one comfortably. Prediction: Almabayev via submission, round 2.
Brady Hiestand (7-2) vs. Garrett Armfield (10-3)
Armfield is on a two-fight win streak inside the octagon, and is coming off the biggest win of his career against two-time Ultimate Fighter winner Brad Katona. Hiestand is a former Ultimate Fighter runner-up who had a fantastic Finale bout against Ricky Turcios, before winning his next two fights. He hasn't fought since April of last year, but he is a decent fighter overall. I think Armfield will edge him out, but I still expect Hiestand to put on a good performance and keeps it close. Prediction: Armfield via decision.
Timothy Cuamba (8-2) vs. Lucas Almeida (14-3)
Due to the changes on this card, the new featured bout pits Lucas Almeida against Timothy Cuamba. Almeida is a former Jungle Fight Lightweight champion and has never gone the distance, but has lost his last two fights. Cuamba is a solid prospect with Contender Series experience, and got his UFC opportunity on three days notice back in February. Almeida is the underdog here, but I'm still more sold on him than Cuamba. Cuamba has good striking and reliable cardio, but he's still young and doesn't have the experience level that Almeida does. Even though Almeida has lost his last two fights, those fights were against proven veterans Andre Fili and Pat Sabatini. Cuamba is promising, and his day will come. I just don't think it will be tonight. Prediction: Almeida via submission, round 2.
Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-5, 1 NC) vs. Miles Johns (14-2, 1 NC)
In the new co-main event, Miles Johns will take on Douglas Silva de Andrade. Johns is a former LFA Bantamweight champion who has gone 5-2 with a no contest inside the octagon, and both of his losses have aged well. His fights tend to go long, as only four of his seventeen career bouts have ended within two rounds, but they're usually entertaining to watch.
De Andrade has been in the UFC for over a decade, but has only fought 12 times inside the octagon. He only fought four times in his first four years with the UFC, and has never had more than two fights per year since joining the company. When he signed with the UFC, he possessed an unbeaten record of 22-0 with a no contest. He went 4-4 to start his UFC career, but has quietly gone 3-1 since then. His losses have been against high-level competition, including former champion Petr Yan, undefeated prospect Lerone Murphy, Rob Font and Said Nurmagomedov, all of whom have done well inside the octagon. He's not elite, but he is UFC caliber and has been proving it. He's the slight underdog, but I'm going to pick him to win this fight. Prediction: De Andrade via decision.
(5) Alex Perez (25-8) vs. (13) Tatsuro Taira (15-0)
Despite how topsy-turvy June has been for the UFC, this main event has somehow stayed intact. In the main event of the evening, unbeaten prospect Tatsuro Taira will take on former Flyweight title challenger Alex Perez. Taira is a slick grappler, has finished 11 of his 15 wins and is 5-0 in the UFC. He hasn't looked great in all of his UFC fights, but the potential is there and he's shown clear flashes of it. He's the top Japanese prospect in the UFC by a mile, and if he can become a contender, it would be a big step towards getting Japanese MMA back on the minds of UFC fans.
At this stage, Perez is a very good opponent for Taira. He's a former title challenger, has a 7-4 UFC record and three of those losses came against former champions or challengers. The only exception was his loss to Mohammad Mokaev in March, where he did better than expected. Perez is a well-rounded fighter, has reliable cardio and his only weakness is that he gets gun-shy at times. He looked great in his win over Matheus Nicolau in April though, and while I might be higher on Perez than most, I think he'll have the tools to win a decision over Taira tonight. I'd probably feel different this fight happened a year later, but right now, I'll go with the veteran. Prediction: Perez via decision.
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