Bantamweight Bout
Ricky Simon vs Vinicius "Lok Dog" Oliveira - This was one of the hardest fights on the card for me to pick as I could really see it going either way. Simon has more experience and the clear wrestling edge and he could control this fight that way. Oliveira is always going to be attacking though and looking to finish this fight and with how dangerous he's shown himself to put, I could see him putting Simon away. If Simon shows up like he did in his last fight where he was overly cautious and let Mario Bautista take advantage of that, I think Oliveira gets it done, but if he puts the pressure on he'll win the rounds. We won't know how that will go until fight night so for a pick, I'll go with Simon as Oliveira has shown some holes in his takedown defense.
Pick: Ricky Simon by Decision
Flyweight Bout
Carlos Hernandez vs Rei Tsuruya - Tsuruya is a massive favorite and while I agree he should be favored; I think the odds are a bit much. Tsuruya is younger and has a lot more potential and he's going to have a big edge on the ground if he can get it there. If Hernandez can keep this fight on the feet though, he's got much better striking. Hernandez has some good boxing and his takedown defense isn't bad, so there's a potential he can score the upset. That being said, I'm still favoring Tsuruya. Tsuruya is going to keep spamming takedowns until he can get this fight to the floor and Hernandez doesn't have the power to get the respect and stop Tsuruya from coming forward. Once he gets Hernandez on the mat, he should be able to take over. Tsuruya has finished 8 of his 9 pro wins and he has vicious ground and pound and good submissions. I see him getting Hernandez to the mat and forcing him to a bad position before locking up a choke to end it.
Pick: Rei Tsuruya by Submission RD 2
Heavyweight Bout
Andrei "The Pitbull" Arlovski vs Martin "Badys" Buday - Buday is coming off a bad loss and his style really isn't the most impressive, this is a winnable fight for the veteran Arlovski. Arlovski has the better footwork and technical striking and if he can keep Buday on the outside and pick his shots, he can win the rounds. Arlovski hasn't won a fight in over 2 years though, he's coming off 3 straight losses, he's 45 years old, and this will be his 58th pro fight. It's hard to have any faith in Arlovski winning a fight at this point, even in a decent matchup for him. Buday is younger, he works at a decent pace and usually keeps walking forward throwing shots, so at the least, he should be able to outwork the veteran.
Pick: Martin Buday by Decision
Women's Strawweight Bout
Michelle "The Karate Hottie" Waterson-Gomez vs Gillian "The Savage" Robertson - I feel like everyone is looking at the fat that Waterson has lost 4 times by submission and thinking that Robertson is going to be able to do the same, but this is an interesting pairing. Waterson is the better striker and has really good takedown defense, so if she can keep this fight on the feet, Robertson is going to have a lot of problems. Robertson's striking really isn't that good and I feel like she only uses it to try to set up takedowns, and her takedowns aren't great either. Once on the mat, Robertson should have the edge, but she might have a hard time getting it there. 3 out of the 4 times that Waterson has lost by submission she was caught in a guillotine choke too and Robertson has never won with a guillotine. It's so hard to pick Waterson as she's 38 now and hasn't won a fight in close to 4 years, but I like this style of fight for her. Robertson isn't a much bigger or stronger opponent which are the types of fighters that Waterson has typically struggled with and her takedowns aren't great either so the bet is that Waterson can keep on the outside and pick her shots to win the rounds.
Pick: Michelle Waterson-Gomez by Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Payton Talbott vs Yanis "The Desert Warrior" Ghemmouri - After Talbott's last performance, it's hard to doubt him and he's one of the largest favorites in UFC history for this fight. Ghemmouri is decent, I hope he gets another shot after this, but I don't see what he really offers against Talbott. That being said, Talbott still hasn't really been tested and he seems extremely overconfident going into this fight so it wouldn't shock me if he blows it. I just don't see Ghemmouri having the tools to take advantage of it.
Pick: Payton Talbott by KO/TKO RD 2
Featherweight Bout
Charles "Air"Jourdain vs Jean "Lord Assassin" Silva - This is a hard fight to pick as Jourdain has been very inconsistent and Silva isn't proven. Silva has a lot of power and he's very dangerous early, but he does slow down a bit in the later rounds and throws a lot less volume and looks for power shots. Jourdain has never been knocked out and usually sets a decent pace, so unless Silva can be the first to stop him with strikes or hurt him bad enough that he's compromised for the rest of the time, I think Jourdain can take over and win the second and third.
Pick: Charles Jourdain by Decision
Featherweight Bout
"Killer" Cub Swanson vs Andre "Touchy" Fili - This is going to be a fun fight and I'm seeing Fili as the favorite, but I'm not sure I agree with that. Swanson is 40 years old and I've heard some things about this potentially being his last fight, but that could motivate him even more and he's still looked good. Fili has looked good recently too and he has a reach advantage in this fight, but I think he would have more success if he wrestled in this one which I don't expect him to do. Expecting this to be a striking battle I took a look at their stats and Swanson throws more volume, he's more accurate, he's better defensively, and I think he has the better chin. He may be older, but I feel like people forget how good Swanson has been because there has been times where he hasn't really shown up. If this is one of those times then Fili could give him real problems, especially have the reach advantage, but I like Swanson as the underdog.
Pick: Cub Swanson by Decision
Middleweight Bout
Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer vs Marc-Andre "Powerbar" Barriault - This is an interesting fight and it should answer some questions about if Pyfer learned anything from his last loss. Pyfer had a little bit of a cardio issue in his last fight and ended up losing and Barriault is a guy who sets a high pace and is going to look to put a pace on Pyfer and throw a lot of volume at him. Pyfer could catch him early and put him away, but if he doesn't, Barriault could overwhelm him late. Pyfer is tough though and he should have enough cardio to win at least two rounds, but I actually think he'll catch Barriault early and we won't even have to find out.
Pick: Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO RD 1
Welterweight Bout
Ian "The Future" Machado Garry vs Michael "Venom" Page - I have a feeling this fight won't be great as both fighters tend to be counter-strikers and I see neither wanting to engage and there being a lot of inactivity. In that style of fight, I actually favor Page as he's the more accurate striker and his showboating will have the crowd cheering and sway the judges. Garry throws more volume normally, so if he actually engages and pushes the pace he could win, especially if he uses low kicks too as Page's stance leaves him open to that, but that also leaves Garry more open to the returning fire from Page.
Pick: Michael Page by Decision
Women's Bantamweight Bout
Mayra "Sheetara" Bueno Silva vs Macy Chiasson - This fight sucks and should be on the prelims. Bueno Silva hits harder, throws a little more volume, and is the better grappler. Her cardio sucks, but it should be good enough for her to win two rounds and survive the third.
Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony "Lionheart" Smith vs Roman "The Caucasian" Dolidze - I don't understand why Smith is the underdog here. Both fighters are taking this on short notice, but Dolidze is taking it on even shorter notice and moving up a division against a more experienced fighter who's been fighting at 205lbs. Dolidze has power and a surprisingly good grappling game, but Smith's BJJ is solid, he's the better striker, and has better cardio. If Dolidze doesn't catch Smith early, I think Smith takes this fight over and wins the last two rounds and potentially even gets a late finish.
Pick: Anthony Smith by Decision
Featherweight Co-Main Event
Brian "T-City" Ortega vs Diego Lopes - I won money the last time Ortega was an underdog against Yair and I'm picking him again here. Lopes is on fire right now and fights like a wild man, but Ortega is a guy who's historically hard to put away. Lopes is looking for a fight of the night here and is going to start quick, I'd probably even expect him to win the first round, but Ortega is just too durable, and Lopes is too reckless that Ortega should be able to come back and take over. Ortega is the more technical striker and Lopes pressure is going to find him grappling with Ortega which hasn't really worked out for a lot of people. With the fight being on short notice, the wild pace of Lopes could hurt him as well as I expect him to start to slow down in the second and third and Ortega will capitalize with a submission.
Pick: Brian Ortega by Submission RD 2
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Main Event
Alex "Poatan" Pereira vs Jiri "BJP" Prochazka - Both of these fighters fought at UFC 300 and now they are stepping in here on short notice to save the card and be the new main event after the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight fell through. There hasn't been enough time to really make me think this will go much different then their first meeting, especially since Prochazka took a lot more damage than Pereira did at UFC 300. Prochazka's entire game revolves around creating chaos and forcing the other fighter into a brawl. Prochazka takes a lot of shots, his defense isn't good, and most of the time he can eat shots and even if he's rocked, stay in the fight and land some of his own. With Pereira, that's about the worst plan possible as this guy hits like a truck. I think Pereira gets it done even quicker this time as I expect Prochazka to get after it early.
Pick: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO RD 1
No comments:
Post a Comment