Flyweight Bout
Andre "Mascote" Lima vs Mitch Raposo - Raposo is stepping in here on short notice. This will be his third chance as Raposo was on TUF 29 and lost to Liudvik Sholinian, then fought on Contender Series and lost to Jake Hadley. He's won 4 fights since, but they've been over pretty low-level competitors. Lima isn't exactly a proven commodity either, but he won on the Contender Series and then won his UFC debut, even if it was by disqualification. Raposo is good and if he can get his wrestling going he can win this fight, Lima was struggling with the takedowns a bit in his UFC debut and grabbed the fence which is what led to him being bit by his opponent. Still, Lima is the favorite for a reason. He should have the edge on the feet and is game enough to win the rounds.
Pick: Andre Lima by Decision
Women's Bantamweight Bout
Joselyne "La Pantera" Edwards vs Ailin "Fiona" Perez - Awful fight. Both of these fighters have little to no upside. They may crack the top 15 at some point, but that's only because there's about 17 fights total in the division, but they will never be real contenders. It's a toss up because both fighters are so bad it's going to depend on who fights smarter and who shows up on the night and both are extremely unreliable in those areas. I like Perez a little more, she has a bit more upside.
Pick: Ailin Perez by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Mickey Gall vs Bassil "The Habibi" Hafez - Hafez is the favorite and that makes sense to me, but Gall is underrated despite his record not being good. This is actually a good stylistic matchup for Gall and he'll have the crowd on his side. The thing that worries me is the power of Hafez and his wrestling but his takedown offense isn't actually that good, and his cardio is questionable as well. Gall is coming off a long layoff, but he's the better striker here, is probably the better grappler and if his wrestling defense can hold up, he should win this fight.
Pick: Mickey Gall by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Niko "The Hybrid" Price vs Alex "The Great White" Morono - Price hasn't won a fight in over two and a half years, he's coming off a pair of knockout losses, his durability seems to be gone, and he's 34. Morono isn't great by any means, but he's good enough to get it done here and a knockout wouldn't shock me.
Pick: Alex Morono by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Phil "The Fresh Prince" Rowe vs Jake "The Celtic Kid" Matthews - Matthews is frustratingly inconsistent and Rowe is overrated so this is a tough one to pick. Rowe has only beaten trash fighters in the UFC so if Matthews loses this fight, his UFC career is basically over. Rowe is older despite having less experience, so I have to go with Matthews, but there's times where he shows up and looks like a bum, so I won't be shocked if he blows it.
Pick: Jake Matthews by Decision
Lightweight Bout
Grant "KGD" Dawson vs Joe Solecki - This is a very interesting fight as I see Dawson as a bit overrated and Solecki as a bit underrated. My gut is telling me Solecki is going to win, he's more accurate, he's better defensively, his wrestling stats on paper are better, and he's the better grappler. That being said, Dawson has the bigger wins, Dawson is the more dangerous fighter, Dawson is the more aggressive fighter, and I see that helping him edge it out.
Pick: Grant Dawson by Decision
Middleweight Bout
Roman Kopylov vs Cesar "Cesinha" Almeida - I don't really have a high opinion of either fighter here but this should be fun stylistically as both fighters are strikers. Almeida went 1-2 against Alex Pereira in kickboxing, if he can beat Pereira in striking and compete with him, he should be able to out-strike Kopylov. Kopylov is going to play right into the game of Almeida, which is why I favor the fighter with the kickboxing background.
Pick: Cesar Almeida by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Randy "Rude Boy" Brown vs Elizeu "Capoeira" Zaleski - This is an interesting fight as Brown is the favorite and rightfully so, but Zaleski is super dangerous and is a live dog. Brown has a big reach advantage, but Zaleski throws slightly more volume and is a bit better defensively. That could be enough to edge this out as Brown tends to let fights be closer than they need to. I've never been overly impressed with Brown and I think Zaleski is a guy that gets overlooked but he's a dog and can be a tough out for a lot of fighters. His age worries me, and if Brown was a faster starter with more knockout power I might be inclined to go away from Zaleski, but I see Brown letting Zaleski get into this fight. The longer it goes, the more Zaleski is going to find his range and make this ugly.
Pick: Elizeu Zaleski by Decision
Heavyweight Bout
Jailton "Malhadinho" Almeida vs Alexandr "King Kong" Romanov - Almeida is the favorite here, but this is an interesting stylistic matchup for him. Romanov is huge and normally can ragdoll his opponents, and with Almeida being a smaller Heavyweight, he could have some serious problems. Still I see Almeida having the tools to win this fight, but he can't overlook Romanov and I think it's going to be tougher than most are expecting.
Pick: Jailton Almeida by Decision
Middleweight Bout
Kevin "Trailblazer" Holland vs Michal "Hussar" Oleksiejczuk - Oleksiejczuk is dangerous, and I think he's a good gatekeeper and borderline top 15 guy, but this is a bad matchup for him. Holland is taller, has a big reach advantage, a great chin, knockout power, creative striking, he's faster, and he's the better grappler. If Holland takes this fight to the floor he'll have a huge advantage and should submit Oleksiejczuk rather quickly, That's not Holland's style though, he'll probably stand and trade with him, maybe take a few unnecessary shots, but still get the win in the end.
Pick: Kevin Holland by KO/TKO RD 1
Co-Main Event
Sean Strickland vs Paulo "The Eraser" Costa - This was the toughest fight for me to pick on the whole card. Strickland is the favorite and that makes sense, but everyone sees this as Strickland being able to throw more volume and outwork Costa and take over the longer the fight goes. When you look at the stats on paper though, Costa lands more shots per minute, he's more accurate with his shots, and he's more powerful. Costa is training at the UFC PI and looks to be in great shape for this fight, but it seems he has a staph infection. That could compromise him, especially the longer this fight goes, and he seems like he's at a cardio disadvantage anyway. I see Costa having the better chin, I do think Costa can land a shot that will hurt Strickland, but everyone is picking Strickland for a reason, and I can't go away from the favorite for a fighter with a potential staph infection.
Pick: Sean Strickland by Decision
Main Event
#C Islam Makhachev vs Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier - I wanted to pick Poirier here, the stars seem to be aligning for him. He's got the title shot, the arena is on Lafayette Street, he's 6-0 in June, he's learned lessons to win this type of fight, he's near the end of his career and this may be his last shot for gold, and Makhachev seems to have a staph infection and it could compromise his game. I'm the furthest thing from a fan of Makhachev, but Poirier has had struggles with grapplers consistently. On the feet Poirier has the advantage, especially as he's facing another southpaw and has historically done well against fellow southpaws. Makhachev's striking is improving though and I don't see him making a mistake before he starts wrestling. Once on the ground, Makhachev should be able to break Poirier and get a submission win. I seriously hope I'm wrong though; my gut is telling me it's Poirier's moment, but the analytical side is too strongly suggesting against it.
Pick: Islam Makhachev by Submission RD 2
No comments:
Post a Comment