UFC 302 Makhachev vs. Poirier

Seth Geko

May 30

Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Main Card

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier

One 'ev' to rule them all. One 'ev' to fine them; one 'ev' to bring them all and in the Octagon bind them.

Islam Makhachev was conceived during an earthquake, a category five hurricane, a meteor shower, and a solar eclipse simultaneously. Even before he took his first breath, Islam Makhachev kept his eyes on the ultimate prize. He spent the days in utero exercising ... his demons - shadowboxing and jumping rope with the umbilical cord. And when he grew impatient, he kinked that bish and went on a hunger strike, forcing doctors to deliver him ahead of schedule. Upon pulling him from the womb, Makhachev held up the doctor by his ankles, slapped his ass, and said, "Good shit." It wasn't long before he landed an apprenticeship as Khabib's shadow, and the rest is HIStory.

The only evidence we have of Makhachev being made of flesh and bone is a single loss nearly ten years ago. But knocking out Islam Makhachev comes with a price to pay. Adriano Martins, the man who KO'd Makhachev, went 0-5-1 until March of this year when he got his first win since he met Makhachev in the Octagon in 2015. Fruits of a poisonous tree. Adriano Martins beat Makhachev and turned into Gollum, guarding his prized dub in solitude in the depths of his mammy's basement for noine years. Immediately after that loss, Makhachev could have been the champion, and what's even more scary is that he's still evolving – like zombies that aren't afraid of water and walk along the sea bottom. This guy isn't just a wrestler anymore. Look, Mom! No double legs!

Islam can stand and bang now. His head kick TKO of Alexander Volkanovski was an inevitability bound to happen sooner rather than later. Makhachev won't wow you with Slick Back footwork or Pernell Whitaker head movement; he'll blend in perfectly with his environment and snipe you from a bell tower a mile away. All you will see is a little orange starburst off in the distance, then fade to black. His left hand and left leg are calibrated to the precise calculations of wind speed, elevation, and the curvature of the earth. "This is my rifle. There are many like it, but this one is mine. My rifle is my best friend..." One shot, one kill. Makhachev averages just two and a half SLpM because he's trained to conserve ammo. Only on leap years will you catch Islam extending combinations beyond a single strike. But that allows him to avoid dangerous exchanges that might allow his opponents to cash in on their only chance of beating him, a puncher's chance, an Adriano Martins chance.

But even though he's evolving into an elite striker, Islam's Kush and Black & Mild is his wrestling/grappling. Makhachev is a wrestling Mentat, a human supercomputer who has stored in his memory the techniques of every wrestler who ever walked the earth, from Dan Gable to Milo of Croton, the most renowned wrestler in antiquity and six-time Olympic champion. His wrestling is everybody's kryptonite, especially Dustin Poirier's. Islam's path to victory is pressuring Poirier against the cage, initiating level changes/the clinch, and taking his back, which Poirier is prone to giving up. The x-factor in this fight will be Makhachev's ego. He's at a point of dominance that borders on boredom and needs to get his jollies by beating fighters at their own game. I can see Islam trying to prove a point on the feet – that he can strike with one of the best strikers in the history of the lightweight division.

But that wouldn't be advised against a man who requires congressional approval before Dana can ship him off to war. Dustin Poirier, aka Dustin Diamond, is the final boss at a Diddy party - you know someone's cheeks are getting clapped—standing-o—when he steps into the cage. Do you remember that "I wanna be like Mike" commercial? Well, I wanna be, I wanna be like Dustin. Poirier is 006; he graduated ahead of James Bond. He's the guy they send to clear the way for the Navy Seals and Green Berets. Whenever he goes to the airport, he gets pulled into a little room and stripped-searched after the bomb-sniffing dogs get a whiff of his thermite-laced hands. They have to use remote-controlled Wall-Es to approach Poirier between rounds lest his cornermen accidentally snip the wrong wire, and the whole arena turns into a mushroom cloud.

Dustin Poirier is a walking legend with GOAT status looming on the horizon should he pull off the impossible and secure the only accolade that has eluded him, the moniker of Undisputed World Champion. This is the only guy who will have faced Khabib and Makhachev. That's like fighting Chuck Norris and Bruce Lee - like fighting Zeus and Apollo. Or Apollo and Drago. That's like playing 21 against MJ and Kobe. Getting slammed on your head by Khabib or Islam would be an absolute honor. And Beating Islam will be harder than beating Battletoads on NES. The key will be not repeating the mistakes he made in the Oliveira and Chandler fights, giving up his back against the cage. Poirier was fortunate to escape the Chandler fight after giving up the entire second round on his back. And Charles only needed one mistake against the cage to capitalize on and finish Poirier. Also, Poirier needs to suppress his alter ego, Gillie da Kid. Poirier jumps gillies like your lady jumps to conclusions. It's my party, and I'll gillie if I want to. But don't do it, Dustin. A gillie a round, keeps the dubs away.

The biggest knock against Poirier is that, in a way, when it comes to the big game, Poirier is the Tony Romo of the UFC. When you least expect it, he'll fumble the fookin' snap on a chip shot go-ahead field goal. He also gave up his back multiple times against Benoit St. Denis and was in danger of dropping the first two rounds before... Dustin did Dustin shit. The follow-up shot he landed on the prone St. Denis was a war crime. They were trying to send him to the Hague after that shit. The local DA was trying to bring him up on charges of desecrating a body. Poirier's shovel hooks travel at unorthodox angles, and the low hand trajectory allows him to propel them with all his body weight behind them. He's also a unique right-handed southpaw who fights with his power hand in the front, closest to its target. If he can get the fight to the middle/late rounds and force extended time on the feet, this fight will get nukin' futs real quick.

Los numéros: Makhachev is 25-1 with five TKO/KOs and eleven subs and averages over three takedowns per fifteen minutes. Poirier is 30-8 with fifteen TKO/KOs and eight subs— fook a gillie, he's handy with D'arce/Anaconda chokes. Poirier averages five and a half SLpM, but it will be nearly impossible to push that pace against a guy with the best MMA wrestling the world has ever known. Poirier will have to pick his shots wisely and focus on attacking the legs and body, making it difficult for Islam to duck under his punches. Poirier has to win this fight by TKO/KO; he won't out-point Islam over twenty-five minutes. Survive and advance in the latter minutes. Islam faded in the fifth round in the first Volkanovski fight. If there was a minute left when it ended, Volkanovski could have finished Islam. There is a chance. And at (+700), you already know I got a Hamilton on a Poirier TKO/KO. You know, just in case.

The main event dub-steak came to a screeching halt when Edson Barboza got every freckle on his ass kicked against Lerone Murphy. Barboza looked like Ray Charles, Homer, and Stevie Wonder combined when it came to seeing/reacting to Murphy's punches. This week kind of feels like a gimme, but it's when the result feels like a foregone conclusion that the potential for an all-time classic upset is the greatest. But all of Poirier's weaknesses play right into Makhachev's strengths. Islam Makhachev via rear-naked choke, round two. Put it on wax.

Makhachev: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (-120) Dec (+500)

Poirier: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+2200) Dec (+1800)

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa

Gone are the days when I used to confuse Sean Strickland for Tom Breese. Equally as gone are the days when Paulo Costa, aka Paulo Pasta, would show up to a championship fight with his game plan spelled out in uncooked macaroni glued to blue construction paper. This is a classic style matchup on the feet. Sean Strickland is like an old Chevy El Camino with white wall tires and a multi-colored Mexican blanket draped over the backseats. And Paulo Costa is a Cyber truck that will hold you hostage and auto-drive your ass over a cliff and into the ocean, where you'll spend the rest of your life cruising around Bikini Bottom. This is a scrap years in the making, and there will be nothing but fireworks from the press conference until the final bell.

Your worst nightmare is coming home and seeing Carlos Ulberg skimming the surface of your pool with a long net and Paulo Costa in your kitchen fixing a clogged pipe under your sink. Paulo is built like the cover of one of your Grammy's romance novels, and if muscles were dubs, this guy would be the GOAT. Costa is a Real Housewife of the UFC, sipping box wine at the pressers and getting into reunion special scraps in the cage. Rollin' in the cage, smokin' indo, sippin' on merlot and juice... laid back. With his mind on his biceps and his biceps on his mind. If Paulo pulls off the win against Strickland, they may fook around and give Costa his own Vanderpump spin-off special. Paulo has all the feels of a dopey 90s movie bully who is bound to be thwarted in the end, but don't let that fool you. Costa is still a dangerous striker who has all the skills and power to beat anyone in the division.

Costa's problem is that he can't get out of his own way. He gets easily distracted in the cage by all the lights and screaming people and forgets why he is there. The only time you've ever really seen Costa get his ass kicked was against Stylebender. But other than that fight, Costa has been in nothing but close competitive fights. His kryptonite is fighters who can out-work him like Marvin Vettori and Robert Whittaker. Sean Strickland falls into that category as well. Costa actually averages more strikes landed per minute, just over six SLpM compared to Strickland's just under six, but he has lulls in fights when he lets them slip away. I think the key for Costa against Strickland will be Costa's kicks. Strickland is heavily fortified defensively down the middle but can get got around his guard. Costa's kicks are his best weapon, and the head kick KO will be warming up in the on-deck circle the whole fight.

You already know Sean Strickland's steez. This guy does Spice Melange rails backstage before making the walk to the cage and displays prescient defensive abilities. His Philly shell could survive reentry into the earth's atmosphere. It could deflect the meteor that killed the dinosaurs. Stricky could dodge bird shit if he was a freshly detailed car. He could dodge doodie if he were Johnny Depp's bed. Fook Floyd Mayweather, Sean Strickland is the MMA Neo. I've never seen Floyd Mayweather dodge a head kick. Strickland was pitching a perfect game against Dricus Du Plessis until a head butt in the third round changed the fight completely. After that, his vision was affected, and he started getting beat by Du Plessis' wide punches. Strickland is a rare defense-first striker and the most effective arm puncher in the game. He is rarely out of position to counter or attack because he limits his movement to his upper body and always has his feet beneath him. His major malfunction on the feet is that he's one-dimensional. He'll throw occasional Royce Gracie front teeps to the body, but other than that, Strickland is on the all-hands team – out there with thirty seconds left in the game with an onside kick coming.

The key for Strickland against Costa will be bringing back Shit-Talking Sean Strickland. This guy paved the way for future shit-talkers like Kevin Holland; he's a shit-talking trailblazer, a shit-talking founding father. There's something psychological about talking shit during the heat of battle. It's intimidating from the opponent's standpoint and makes fighters get out of pocket trying to shut him up. When Strickland is out there talking shit, you know he is in the zone, and the easily distracted Paulo Costa is the perfect opponent to rank on in the cage – hit with a couple "Your Mama" jokes between exchanges. Stickland's path to victory is out-working Paulo for fifteen minutes. Strickland outlanded Du Plessis one hundred seventy-three to one hundred thirty-seven and still lost. His game is volume and systematically breaking you down.

Strickland is 28-6 for his career with eleven TKO/KOs and four subs. Costa is 14-3 with eleven TKO/KOs and one sub. I think the bigger finishing threat is Costa. Strickland has been finished via TKO/KO twice in his career, and Costa has only been finished once. But Costa has the one-strike KO power. He can lose every minute of the fight and still pull off a walk-off at the buzzer. Strickland will have to navigate around danger for the full fifteen minutes. But both fighters are solid Fantasy options. Costa has gone over the one hundred strikes mark twice in his career. Strickland is the (-225) dog, and Costa is the (+185) live-ass dog. Costa could give you more bang for your Fantasy buck because he will go strike-for-strike with Strickland and notch similar numbers even in a loss. But defense wins championships, and I have to take the defensive savant. Sean Strickland via decision. Put it on wax.

Strickland: TKO/KO (+175) Sub (+1400) Dec (+150)

Costa: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2800) Dec (+750)

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Kevin Holland

This one is an undercover banger. Don't sleep on Michal Oleksiejczuk. This guy hits harder than his name is to spell. And Kevin Holland is a verbal KO artist with hands to match his razor-sharp tongue. This one is a personality mismatch but will be much more even on the feet. If takedowns weren't a thing, these guys would be at the top of the division as two of the deadliest strikers in the middleweight division. Yes, Holland is stepping in once again at 185 lbs. after seven fights at welterweight. I don't know if the move is permanent or a short-notice type deal, but Holland had four TKO/KOs at 185, including a TKO over the turtle in a full shell, Joaquin Buckley. This one has the potential to steal the show on the main card.

Michal Oleksiejczuk's striking is awkward like making eye contact through a bathroom stall door. "Is somebody in there?"

(Pounding and prying on the door).

"Yeah, buddy. Somebody's in here. That's why the fookin' door is locked!"

"Hey! I ain't your buddy, pal!"

This dude is awkward, like when you were six and thought Pops was hurting Mammy, so you ran up in their room ready to throw hands to save her. Oleks is a dirty south southpaw whose cadence looks like he's bobbing and weaving to a classic Bun B and Pimp C UGK banger. He sways and bounces like he's Tippin' Vogues while unloading long, wide punches from extreme angles that evade traditional defenses. Fiend feints; that's Oleks's specialty, scratching and writhing like he's on his Thriller arc. His cadence on the feet reminds me of the mechanic on Men in Black before the giant cockroach crawls out of him. He fights as if a symbiote is controlling his faculties, sitting behind John Robot's eyes on some Lupe Fiasco Daydreamin' type-ish. Oleks throws from blasphemous angles; he's the Galleleo of striking. Lock him up and throw away the key! Oleks is a striking heretic.

But he's a pull-the-plug vegetable, a kumquat, on the mat. Do not resuscitate. The good news is, this ain't going to the mat. If Kevin Holland didn't even pretend to takedown MVP once, he ain't going to start shooting doubles now. Oleks is 19-7 for his career with fourteen TKO/KOs and one sub sitting out in the EB trailers eating lunch by itself. He averages five SLpM to Holland's just under four and a half. Michal is coming in off a one-minute loss to Michel Pereira, but there isn't any shame in that; that's like saying you got dunked on by MJ.

Kevin Holland needs to go to actual Holland, get him some of that Dutch Kush top shelf, and get his mind right. Like Sean Strickland, bring back that Ludacris Word of Mouf Kevin Holland. I need homie composing the shit-talking New New Testament out there. I want to see Holland go straight Vin Scully giving the play-by-play of the ass whoopin' he's administering. I want to see a Shelter rap battle in that bish while he's dealing hands like royal flushes. Cue that Lupe "Go-Go Gadget Flow." Holland has those go-go gadget hands that extend to infinity and beyond! Holland needs to go straight Food & Liquor and get back on his classic shit, throwing hands like a meal ticket is at stake. People thought he had to reel in the antics to take the next step, but the antics were the secret sauce. They were his edge – the source of his swag. He protected himself with punchlines at all times.

This fight is simple for Holland: If he fights long, he will win. His problem is he doesn't always use his range well, leaping into the pocket like he's competing in the triple jump. He often over-commits and is left out of position and off balance. He can't afford to give up his range and stumble into Oleks' wheelhouse. Holland is 25-11 with fourteen TKO/KOS and seven subs. The x-factor is Holland's choke game on the mat. Of Oleks's seven career L's, five came via submission. Holland's D'arce/Anacondas are always a threat. But Holland prefers to woo the crowd and engage in fan-friendly bangers on the feet.

Holland is the (-250) favorite, and Oleks is the (+200) live-ass dog. Holland just can't be trusted. He has lost two in a row and four of his last six. Most of those L's should have been dubs had he just let his hands go like 2020 Kevin Holland. If he comes out half-steppin' like he did against MVP and Jack De La Soul, Oleks will beat him. Oleks is a one-thousand-piece puzzle that's hard to figure out on the feet with the power to KO anyone. But Holland has only been finished on the feet once, and that was to Wonderboy. I think his range will be a problem for Oleks as long as he uses it consistently. Kevin Holland via decision. On wax.

Props

Holland: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+250) Dec (+275)

Oleks: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2800) Dec (+800)

Alexander Romanov vs. Jailton Almeida

I'm on my hands and knees, praying to the old and new gods that one of these guys can score a takedown. Because if they don't, this will turn into the ugliest kickboxing match of all time. Yes, I'm talking Li Jingliang ugly. Bubba Sparxx Ugly. When it comes to Missy Elliott one round men, these are numbers one and two, dead or alive. In the first round, these guys are world champions. But in the second, they're PFL fighters. Romanov more so than Almeida, but Almeida falls off a cliff like Gavin Esco real quick too. The first round could look like a sumo match with both guys trying to get a tight grip on the other's makeshift diapers until the other gasses (likely Romanov) and flops on top for the rest of the round. Have the doobie rolled and the Bic on deck in case this one reaches the second round.

Alexander Romanov is a premature fighter. Premature, like when Jim touches Nadia. As soon as Romanov's feet touch the mat, he's done. He has a pack of cigs and a pair of streaked chonies waiting for him in his corner. He's a Charles Dickens Tale of Two Rounds fighter. He's Diddy in the first round and Meek Mill in the second. The first round against Romanov is like surviving the opening scene of a Final Destination movie. He could slam you into the mat, destroying the structural integrity of the Octagon, causing it to collapse on a sleeping Jon Jones beneath it, and simultaneously releasing a deadly strain of gain of function asbestos that infects the first responders trying to free Jon Jones, subsequently setting off a zombie apocalypse. And the second round against Romanov is like treading water in an inflatable kiddie pool. Herbert Burns, Makwan Amirkhani, Derek Brunson, and Alexander Romanov: The January 1st cardio Mr. Rushmore.

Other than his cardio, Romanov is a monster from the top position but a victim from the bottom. It just struck me. Romanov looks like a badass Chris Farley. But ain't shit funny if he ends up on his back with Jailton Almeida on top. If the fight stays standing, I'd give Romanov the edge. He has a Beverly Hills Ninja bladed stance, throws drunken haymakers over the top, and is overall the better striker. Romanov is 17-2 with six TKO/KOs and noine subs and averages four SLpM to Almeida's two and a half. If somehow, someway, the fight makes it to the third round and the Almeida takedown well dries up, Romanov will have a good shot at finishing it on the feet.

Pops from Don't Be a Menace is back. At age ten, Jailton Almeida used to drop his parents off at work on his way to school. He signed his parents' progress reports. He once grounded his pops for touching the thermostat. Jailton was born grown and grew down. This guy is Shai-hulud, a giant sandworm from the dunes of Arrakis on the mat. He burrows on some Tremors type-ish and swallows you alive. Almeida is a deep-sea ankle diver who never has to come up for air. He'll stay locked on the same single leg for an entire round. But if he gets his hands locked around you, the Octagon turns into Shark Week real quick. Air Jailton. When Jailtons Attack. Discovery has Jailton Almeida Week now. Cue that Lionel Richie "Stuck On You." Once Almeida gets hold of you, there is no escape. Unless you blast him with elbows like Curtis Blaydes did. But that aside, when Almeida gets hold of you, he becomes you, like a parasite invading a host. Before those Blaydes Hellbows, Almeida held him against the cage for the entirety of the first round.

But Almeida's major malfunction is he has zero point-zero MMA instincts. He doesn't create damage. He's a horizontal girl living in a vertical world. On the feet, he's an amateur at best. His stand-up is more like sit-down. It looks like it pains him to stand because he has had arthritis since he was six. If this guy ever learned some Tito Ortiz/Mark Coleman old-fashioned ground and pound, he would be nearly unstoppable. Almeida will be an early finishing threat if he can get Romanov to the mat. But after that, he will have to control the top position for the rest of the fight. Almeida is 20-3 with seven TKO/KOs and twelve subs and averages nearly seven takedowns per fifteen minutes to Romanov's nearly four and a half. But Romanov's takedown defense is a Madden twenty, literally twenty percent. Almeida's is seventy-five percent. But who has really tried to take him down?

Almeida is the (-275) favorite, and Romanov is the (+220) live dog. Romanov will have to survive and advance to the later minutes, but if he can force long stand-up stretches or score his own takedowns late in the fight, he can steal the fight. I like playing this fight for a decision. Romanov may be a chump from his back, but he can survive and avoid submissions. I can also see the pace slowing down heavily if one can't find a finish before the halfway mark. Jailton Almeida via decision. On wax.

Props

Almeida: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+140) Dec (+400)

Romanov: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1000) Dec (+700)

Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski

You may remember Elizeu Zaleski as the star of the Benoit St. Denis snuff film. Zaleski walked black carpets in dark Hollywood after that Oscar-worthy performance. That fight was uncomfortable to watch, like watching The Passion for the first time. The crowd begged for mercy like St. Denis was William Wallace in that bish. They almost had to euthanize St. Denis like a thoroughbred with a broken leg after that fight. ESPN had to switch live coverage to a Cornhole tournament in the middle of that fight. The UFC got banned from YouTube for posting highlights of that fight. My point is that Zaleski is an undercover barbarian, savage, heathen, and all that. Zaleski will step in against Randy Brown after fighting the under-the-bed monster Rinat Fakhretdinov to a draw.

Elizeu Zaleski is a Hollywood Blvd. Hugh Jackman with adamantium hands who doesn't lose to strikers. If you look at his record, he only loses to fighters who can take him down. This guy has a first-round spinning wheel kick KO over Sean Strickland when Strickland used to fight at welterweight. Two of his three losses were to the undercover savage with a cape on – the super savage – Nicolas Dalby, and the mansion gargoyle Li Jingliang. Dalby scored six takedowns in that bout, and Jingliang scored two. Fakhretdinov only scored one takedown, and the two fought to a draw. Zaleski has battering rams for hands and tenderizes you over fifteen minutes. SWAT uses Zaleski's hands to breach doors. He pressures you, compressing the cage and making it feel like the walls are closing in on you. His strikes are like being in repeated fender benders until your car eventually has to be condemned, and the insurance company has to cut you a check.

Zaleski is 24-7 for his career with fourteen TKO/KOs and three subs. Pressure will be the key for Zaleski against Randy Brown. You can bully Brown and beat him in the pocket. If Zaleski gets stuck on the outside, he will get picked apart. He has to take chances to get in the pocket and extend combinations. Both fighters average around four and a half SLpM, and I would give Zaleski a slightly better shot at finishing the fight. Brown is 18-5 for his career, and four of those L's were via finish, two subs, and two TKO/KOs. Zaleski has been finished three times, twice by sub.

They call Randy Brown Rude Boy, but he often fights like he's trying to bring back chivalry. Oftentimes, he's more passive-aggressive than aggressive-aggressive – like he wants to hurt you emotionally because it's more damaging than physical pain. Randy Brown often tries to be too pretty in the cage and ends up in close fights that shouldn't be close fights. He's good, but he should be better. Brown is like the Jokic/Dončić of the UFC, getting all the calls. He gets the 2002 Lakers vs. Kings refs as judges, and he's the Lakers. He's the Billy the Kid of the UFC, robbing stagecoaches for dubs. They got a dead or alive bounty on his head for dub stealing. Khaos Williams, Fransisco Trinaldo, and Wellington Turman – he could have and possibly should have lost all those fights. But you never apologize for dubs. I'm just saying he could have won all those fights easily but fought safely instead of taking risks to finish them.

But he's still formidable on the feet. His special weapon is his length. Brown has hands like fire truck ladders that can extend one hunnid stories. They call Randy Brown to get cats out of trees. He uses intermittent boxing footwork, but his head doesn't follow his feet. His movement is more aesthetic than it is functional. And he doesn't put any stank on his punches. His strikes are like pimp slapping you without the baby powder. They're just missing some anger, some hate behind them. But don't tell Muslim Salikhov that, who Randy Brown just KO'd in the first round back in February. But that was Brown's first finish in his last six fights.

Brown will be the (-175) favorite, and Zaleski will be the live-ass (+145) dog. Zaleski has the style to bully Randy Brown and catch him when he gets lazy with his defense. I see Zaleski getting stronger as the fight progresses and Brown fading. Zaleski's value will be in significant strikes, hovering around the seventy range with an outside shot at a late finish. But I think the play for both fighters is a decision. I think they may run some clock feeling each other out, and it will ultimately be a nip/tuck close affair. So far, I've picked chalk, and this is a good spot to take a dog. Give me Elizeu Zaleski via decision. Wax on, wax off.

Props

Brown: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+800) Dec (+150)

Zaleski: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1100) Dec (+350)

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Elizeu Zaleski ($7.7k): I'm looking at striker vs. striker matchups in the $7k price range. It's a Motley Crue of heavy dogs this week, and you'll have to score points mostly with significant strikes. Zaleski isn't a high-output striker by any means, but he's guaranteed to be in a stand-up war with a good chance of pulling off the upset. Randy Brown will have a speed and length advantage, but he doesn't have that Michael Vick FC dog in him like Zaleski. Zaleski is an accumulative damage striker who will get stronger as the fight progresses, while Brown will tail off. It will be Zaleski's time to shine if this fight makes it to the third round.

Paulo Costa ($7.4k): Paulo is a live-ass dog, and as crazy as it sounds, he's the higher-output striker in his matchup against Sean Strickland. Costa isn't a combination striker – he's a one-punch striker who throws just a beat off from a combination. But even when he is gassed, Costa still manages to throw bombs. I think the key for Costa will be his kicks. Costa has heavy round kicks, and his high kicks will be available all night long. Strickland is a master at defending down the middle. The way to attack him is around his guard as Dricus Du Plessis started to find success in the third round. Also, Costa has better hand speed and power than Strickland, and even though I think this fight will go the distance, Costa has a slightly better chance of scoring a finish. But win or lose, this will be a one-hundred-percent stand-up affair that should produce solid striking stats for both fighters.

Michal Oleksiejczuk ($7.2k): Don't let his last fight against Michel Pereira fool you, Michal Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous and often slept-on striker. Kevin Holland is long as fook, but he doesn't always use his reach well. Holland often over-pursues and leaves himself wide open for counters. If Oleks can get inside on Holland consistently, he will win a lot of exchanges. Holland's kryptonite is striking in the pocket. His arms are too long to hot box with Oleks in close quarters. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Oleks who is pushing the pace and pressuring Holland for most of the fight. The key for Oleks will be avoiding the clinch and not ending up on his back, where Holland has deadly head and arm chokes. But I suspect a firefight on the feet will be too hard to pass up for Holland, and this one will be a close affair and look a lot like the Jack De La Soul fight in which both fighters eclipsed the one hundred strikes mark.

$6k Clearance Rack

Dustin Diamond ($6.7k): This one is easy. Go back to the second Makhachev vs. Volkanovski fight. It looked like Makhachev had no plans of trying to take down Volkanovski. He believed he could (and did) outstrike Volkanovski, and it looked like wrestling was the B-side of the game plan. I'm not so sure that won't be the case (at least early) this time around, too. If Islam gets overconfident on the feet, Poirier will have a 50/50 shot at pulling off the epic upset. What worries me for Poirier is Makhachev's high kick. It was only two fights ago when Justin Gaethje KO'd Poirier in the second round with a head kick. Islam's grappling worries me more, of course, but the stand-up exchanges will be fairlyeven, and Poirier only needs to find Makhachev's chin once. Dustin is the bigger finishing threat on the feet, but that won't matter if he can't keep Makhachev from taking his back against the cage. But plus money Poirier is a fookin' green light every time.

Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers

Roman Kopylov (+105): There's a good chance Kopylov will be even money or may even dip into the negative by fight night. But at even slight plus money against another striker in Cesar Almeida, Roman Kopylov, aka Gangster Chase Hooper, will be dripping with value. This will be a One FC Muay Thai match with four-ounce gloves. Cesar Almeida came up through the Glory Kickboxing ranks and fought Alex Pereira three fookin' times and even has a dub over Pereira. So, Kopylov will have his work cut out for him, but so will Almeida. Kopylov has the fastest hands and feets in the middleweight division and is a problem for any striker. Kopylov could compete at the highest level of kickboxing as Almeida has, and this could turn out to be the banger of the prelims. Also, Kopylov won four straight fights via TKO/KO before running into the grappling Harry Potter, Fluffy Hernandez, in his last bout.

Paulo Costa (+175): As long as Paulo Pasta doesn't show up, gone off box wine spritzers following a Real Housewives of the UFC reunion special, this fight will be highly competitive. Other than the Adesanya fight, Costa usually only gets beat in very close decisions. Power for power, Costa is the bigger finishing threat. He has the one-strike power to change the tide of the fight in a blink. Also, his hand speed is superior to Strickland's, and Costa implements kicks, whereas Strickland is almost exclusively a boxer. This is a better matchup for Costa than the Robert Whitakker fight because there's zero threat of Strickland taking him down. Keep an eye on those Costa head kicks...

Dustin Poirier (+450): Never count out Dustin Diamond, the perennial cheek clapper, the standing ovation conductor. Likely, he will get taken down, give up his back, and get choked out. But for however long the fight stays standing, he'll have a chance to land a heat rock. Never forget Adriano Martins with the step-in counter hook that laid out Makhachev in Makhachev's second UFC fight. He can be beaten. It has been done before and by a far less dangerous fighter than Poirier. He'll have to make this look like the St. Denis fight - survive on the mat early and pick his shots wisely between takedowns. And I'm not completely sure Makhachev won't try to prove a point on the feet, which would give Poirier a good chance of pulling off the unimaginable.

Pick 'Em

Cesar Almeida (-120) vs. Roman Kopylov (+105)

Winner: Cesar Almeida

Method: Decision

Grant Dawson (-450) vs. Joe Solecki (+350)

Winner: Grant Dawson

Method: Decision

Philip Rowe (+135) vs. Jake Mattthews (-165)

Winner: Jake Matthews

Method: Decision

Niko Price (+240) vs. Alex Morono (-300)

Winner: Alex Morono