With the MLB season fast approaching, I thought it was a good idea to give my full predictions for each and every team. Usually, when I do this, I get about halfway done and stop writing because of burnout. Last year, I had a better idea to prewrite the blogs so I wouldn't stop halfway between the teams on the blogs, but that did not work. I got nowhere close and only wrote about eight teams. I'm going to do something different this time. Instead of writing one blog about my predictions, I'm going to write a division-by-division breakdown. I really enjoy the art of baseball, and I think my ideas are ALWAYS* right. After I write the six blogs about the divisions, I will write a blog about my World Series team and the bets I like.
So, with that, let's break down the NL East—a division I know far too well. As a diehard New York Mets fan, it's hard to put bias aside, but with how New York handled the offseason, it should be easy to do. But let's not spoil too much about the blog. This blog will consist of all five teams' offseason acquisitions and losses, their current lineups and rotations, and how I see their season going. With that, let's get into the predictions.
1st Place: Atlanta Braves:
Offseason Acquisitions and Losses:
- Signed RHP Reynaldo Lopez: 3 years $30M
- Resigned Joe Jimenez: 3 years $26M
- Lost RHP Kirby Yates to Texas: 1 year $4.5M
- Signed RF Adam Duvall to Atlanta: 1 year $3M
- Lost RHP Ken Giles: 1 year $1.75M
- Signed INF Luis Guillorme: 1 year $1.1M
- Lost OF Eddie Rosario to Washington: MLD
- Acquired LHP Chris Sale from Boston for INF Vaughn Grissom
- Acquired CF Jarred Kelenic, LHP Marco Gonzales, and 1B Evan White from Seattle for RHP Jackson Kowar (LHP Marco Gonzales traded to Pittsburgh, and 1B Evan White traded to Los Angles (AL))
- Acquired LHP Aaron Bummer from Chicago (AL) for RHP Mike Soroka, RHP Riley Gowens, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, and SS Braden Shewmake
- Acquired LHP Ray Kerr and 3B Matt Carpenter from San Diego for a prospect (3B Matt Carpenter was released)
Still Free Agents:
- RHP Collin McHugh
- LHP Brad Hand
Projected Lineup:
C: Sean Murphy
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Orlando Arcia
LF: Jarred Kelenic
CF: Michael Harris II
RF: Ronald Acuna Jr.
DH: Marcell Ozuna
Projected Rotation:
RHP Spencer Strider
LHP Max Fried
RHP Charlie Morton
LHP Chris Sale
RHP Reynaldo López
Offseason Grade: B
The Braves never made a true splash this offseason. One might argue Chris Sale and Jarred Kelenic are splashes, but I don't see it that way. Chris Sale has had a lot of injury troubles these past few seasons. The Braves should not rely on him to have a good season; more than that, he will be a backend rotation player. With Kelenic, it felt more like a spite move than a logic move. Kelenic still has his potential, but eventually, he has to realize that potential. He definitely had a much better 2023, but a .253 batting average will not cut it. I'm sure he will dominate the Mets, but I need to see more this year to believe in him. With that all said and an offseason grade of a B, the Braves will be the best team in the NL East. It's going to be hard to compete with that stacked lineup that tied an MLB record 307 home runs. The Braves will be in first but will feel some heat from the team below.
2nd Place: Philadelphia Phillies (1st Wild Card)
Offseason Acquisitions and Losses:
- Resigned RHP Aaron Nola: 7 years $172M
- Lost 1B Rhys Hoskins to Milwaukee: 2 years $34M
- Lost RHP Craig Kimbrell to Baltimore: 1 year $13M
- Signed UTL Whit Merrifield: 1 year $8M
- Signed RHP Spencer Turnbull: 1 year $2M
- Acquired RHP Michael Rucker from Chicago (NL) for cash
Still Free Agents:
Projected Lineup:
C: J.T. Realmuto
1B: Bryce Harper
2B: Bryson Stott
3B: Alec Bohm
SS: Trea Turner
LF: Brandon Marsh
CF: John Rojas
RF: Nick Castellanos
DH: Kyle Schwarber
Projected Rotation:
RHP Zack Wheeler
RHP Aaron Nola
LHP Ranger Suarez
RHP Taijuan Walker
LHP Cristopher Sánchez
Offseason Grade: C
The Phillies didn't do anything to improve upon last year. Yeah, they made the NL Championship for the second consecutive season, but the Phillies needed to do more if they want to finally win that ring. Their bullpen was their biggest problem last year, and they did nothing to improve it. Craig Kimbrell was such an important piece to that bullpen and has yet to replace the all-star. It's fine that they let Rhys Hoskins walk because their offense is so stacked. The Phillies will need to improve that bullpen if they want to win the division, and because of that, I have them in second place in the East. Their offense and starting rotation will get them to 90+ wins, but that bullpen will be a determinant.
3rd Place: New York Mets (3rd Wild Card)
Offseason Acquisitions and Losses:
- Signed LHP Sean Manaea: 2 years $28M
- Signed RHP Luis Severino: 1 year $13M
- Signed DH JD Martinez: 1 year $12M
- Signed CF Harrison Bader: 1 year $10.5M
- Resigned RHP Adam Ottavino: 1 year $4.5M
- Signed LHP Jake Diekman: 1 year $4M
- Signed RHP Shintaro Fujinami: 1 year $3.35M
- Lost DH Daniel Vogelbach to Toronto: 1 year $2M
- Lost RHP Carlos Carrasco to Cleveland: 1 year $2M
- Signed RHP Jorge Lopez: 1 year $2M
- Signed UTL Joey Wendle: 1 year $2M
- Lost INF Luis Guillorme to Atlanta: 1 year $1.1M
- Acquired Acquired RHP Adrian Houser and CF Tyrone Taylor from Milwaukee for a prospect
Projected Lineup:
C: Francisco Alvarez
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Jeff McNeil
3B: Brett Baty
SS: Francisco Lindor
LF: Brandon Nimmo
CF: Harrison Bader
RF: Starling Marte
DH: JD Martinez
Projected Rotation:
LHP Jose Quintana
RHP Luis Severino
LHP Sean Manaea
RHP Adrian Houser
RHP Tylor Megill
Offseason Grade: B-
So, let's get ahead of all this. I honestly think this Mets team can be good. I know they have some glaring holes, and I wish they did more in the offseason, but they tried to get top-end pitchers but got outbid. They shifted their focus to the future and got short-term deals on average to work-in-project players. The Mets starting rotation will suck. They lost their ace for at least the first month, but New York's offense and bullpen should be good. The Mets have a good lineup outside of 3B and CF. I think the Mets' offense can lead them to the final spot of the Wild Card. The inclusion of JD Martinez legitimizes the lineup. The trade deadline will be a real indicator of where the Mets stand in the 2024 season, and I hope New York is still in the race on August 1st.
4th Place: Miami Marlins
Offseason Acquisitions and Losses:
- Lost DH Jorge Soler to San Francisco: 3 years $42M
- Lost RHP David Robertson to Texas: 1 year $11M
- Lost LHP Matt Moore to Los Angeles (AL): 1 year $9M
- Signed SS Tim Anderson: 1 year $5M
- Lost C Jacob Stallings to Colorado: 1 year $2M
- Lost UTL Joey Wendle to New York (NL): 1 year $2M
- Lost SS Garrett Hampson to Kansas City: 1 year $2M
- Lost RHP Matt Barnes to Washington: MLD
- Signed RHP Mychal Givens: MLD
- Acquired UTL Nick Gordon from Minnesota for LHP Steven Okert
- Acquired 3B Jonah Bride from Oakland for cash
- Acquired C Christian Bethancourt from Cleveland for cash
- Acquired UTL Vidal Brujan and RHP Calvin Faucher from Tampa Bay in exchange for minor-league prospect
Still Free Agents:
- RHP Johnny Cueto
- 1B Yuli Gurriel
Projected Lineup:
C: Christian Bethancourt
1B: Josh Bell
2B: Luis Arraez
3B: Jake Burger
SS: Tim Anderson
LF: Bryan De La Cruz
CF: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
RF: Jesus Sanchez
DH: Avisail Garcia
Projected Rotation:
LHP Jesus Lezardo
RHP Eury Perez
LHP AJ Puk
LHP Trevor Rogers
LHP Ryan Weathers
Offseason Grade: F
The Miami Marlins decided to punt on the entirety of the 2024 season. They put no effort into this offseason, letting all of their free agents walk, and for the moves they made, they do very little to improve the roster. Writing this much is already a waste of time for me. The Marlins will get around 70 wins and be out of playoff contention by mid-July.
5th Place: Washington Nationals
Offseason Acquisitions and Losses:
- Signed OF Joey Gallo: 1 year $5M
- Signed UTL Nick Senzel: 1 year $2M
- Lost 1B Dominic Smith to Chicago (NL): 1 year $1.75M
- Signed LF Jesse Winker: MLD
- Signed OF Eddie Rosario: MLD
Lost INF Michael Chavis to Seattle: MLD
Projected Lineup:
C: Keibert Ruiz
1B: Joey Gallo
2B: Luis Garcia Jr.
3B: Nick Senzel
SS: CJ Abrams
LF: Eddie Rosario
CF: Victor Robles
RF: Lane Thomas
DH: Joey Meneses
Projected Rotation:
RHP Josiah Gray
LHP Patrick Corbin
LHP MacKenzie Gore
RHP Jake Irvin
RHP Trevor Williams
Offseason Grade: D+
A bit better than the Marlins. Washington did not do much this offseason, either. The Nationals will once again be at the bottom of the National League as they continue to waste away the years of Abrams, Ruiz, Thomas, and Gray. What more is there to say than the Nationals will once again suck.
* never
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