UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs. Imavov

Seth Geko

February 1

Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

This will go down as the breakdown that almost didn't happen. One minute, I was watching film on Roman Dolidze, and the next, I was caught in the middle of some kind of amateur pyrotechnics. Bright flashes all around, volleys of concussive explosions like one thousand M-80s going off simultaneously, pieces of the popcorn ceiling, asbestos, raining down, covering every piece of Ikea furniture. Then I was face down on the ass end of my Bryce Mitchell bearskin rug.

"Don't move! Don't move, motherf**ker!" a deep, raspy voice, as if spewed over a sandpaper tongue, yelled. I wasn't moving. "Stop resisting!" I wasn't resisting. I was crying. A boot to the ribs. "Move again, motherf**ker! I dare you!"

"I'm not mov—"

From the corner of my eye, through thick wisps of smoke dancing like seductive geishas, I saw a man, fully tact out, camo everything, an AR slung over his shoulder, sprint across the room, throw his back into the wall, and rebound as if it were a turnbuckle. In a blink, he was standing over me doing a little shimmy, a shake, before dropping the People's Elbow in my back. I felt like Van Damme's brother in Kickboxer when Tong Po breaks his brother's back. Blind, deaf, and paralyzed, two men held me down, pressing my face deeper into Bryce's ass, still smelling of pre-fight Chipotle, while the another hogtied me, wrist to ankles.

Next thing I knew, I was in a nondescript room, a HoJo conference room by the smell of it, the musty cheeks from the swinger's convention the night before still lingering. Like a substitute teacher, a man in a black suit wheeled in a T.V. with a VCR. No shit; a VCR. He hit play, and it all made sense. It was Roman Dolidze vs. Jack Hermansson. It was cued to the part when Dolidze was back mounted, Hermansson's leg caught in some kind of BDSM maneuver. Dolidize was yelling, "Weeeeeee! Eeeeeeee! Weeeeeee!" in a high-pitched squeal.

"You know, this will get you a minimum of ten years..."

I didn't know. But I should have. I had felt dirty while watching it and thought I had scrubbed it from my hard drive. Guess not. I told the man in black that I downloaded it using an old version of LimeWire, and the file said, "New! Unreleased Eminem!"

The man said he was canceling after the seven-day trial period; he wasn't buying it. But they had to let me go anyway. Turns out, they didn't announce themselves before lobbing the flashbangs and smoke grenades through my windows and repelling into my living room through a blown-out hole in the roof. They didn't want any public backlash, so they just swept everything under the Bryce Mitchell rug they confiscated.

They dropped me off in the parking lot of a Chuck E. Cheese, and I had to walk about six miles the rest of the way home. But fook it! LFG!

Main Card

Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov

I felt like I was about to get SWAT'd at any moment when I rewatched the Dolidze vs. Hermansson fight. Dolidze had a back-mounted calf slicer locked in while simultaneously pounding Hermansson with heavy punches. It was one of the most brutal TKOs in UFC history. It was heinous, appalling, and generally uncalled for. I was almost offended. That ending was on some Deliverance type-ish. Romam Dolidze is one of the scariest-looking MFs in the promotion; he walks around with that big Andrei Arlovski energy. I'm talking prime Arlovski with the taco meat Tom Selleck chest hair and fang mouth guard. Dolidze is like the UFC's Mothman; bad shit tends to happen whenever he's around.

Even though he only has three career subs, Dolidze attacks subs with evil intentions. He rips limbs. Tears limbs off and throws them into the crowd. He's the embodiment of the Middle Ages; he pillaged and sacked cities in a previous life. On the feet, Dolidze is a heathen, a barbarian, a literal savage. He's all hooks like Nate Dogg. Wide, framed punches with everything on 'em are Dolidze's M.O. He walks around wielding two hammers, and everything around him is a nail. Dude is all power everything with an angry streak. He's not the most technical or creative striker, but Dolidze is aggressive and nasty in close quarters. Dolidze doesn't strike; he bludgeons.

On the mat, Dolidze is a gifted grappler for his size. He has heavy top control and filthy heel hooks. Two of his three career subs are heel hooks. He has broken more ankles than AI's crossover. Broken more ankles than osteoporosis. Dolidze rarely looks for takedowns; he usually ends up in the top position after being taken down and forcing a scramble. He uses an active guard and heel hooks to reverse position. Subs aren't just effective when they end the fight. You can also use them as reversals or to defend takedowns.

Against Nassourdine Imavov, Dolidze's game plan will be to keep the fight standing and try to land a bomb to set off a fight-ending sequence. Imavov was the first man to take down Chris Curtis in Imavov's last fight, scoring three takedowns in less than two rounds. Roman is infinitely more dangerous on the mat than Curtis, but Imavov may still try to mix things up and steal close rounds with top control time. If Imavov isn't careful, the FCC might have to shut shit down and fine ESPN for broadcasting obscene images. Dolidze is 12-2 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and three subs. He's a quality-over-quantity striker, barely averaging three SLpM with a career-high of seventy-one in his most recent scrap against Marvin Vettori.

Nassourdine Imavov reminds me of a penny-a-day Gegard Mousasi. Imavov has the overall look of a future title challenger, but he's kind of like bag cereal; something's a little off. He's missing that extra slap of real Cap'n Crunch. He's on that Colossal Crunch shit. But Imavov is a slick striker with straight, Original Recipe crispy hands and speed to burn. And straight punches and speed are Roman Dolidze repellants. Imavov has crotch-rocket hand speed. That bish is past you by the time you hear it coming. His hands whistle. Imavov's hands are so fast they add time to the clock like they're riding in a DeLorean. Adding to his hand speed is his hand position. He holds his hands, especially his lead hand, halfway extended, shortening the distance they travel to the target. Imavov's jab is like Bruce Lee's one-inch punch. He keeps it at near full extension and just snaps the wrist. His special move is the Dirk Nowitzki fade-away counter. Waiting for you to engage, he slides back out of the pocket and fires a right hand with the little leg kick at the end.

This fight will get very interesting if Imavov decides to use his wrestling. I'm not sure who the better wrestler/grappler is. Dolidze's style is more submission wrestling, and Imavov's is more Jitz. Although it will be a big risk, I think Imavov has to at least threaten with level changes to keep Dolidze hesitant to rush forward with aggressive barrages. Dolidze has a thirty-three percent career takedown defense. That is because he comes forward so aggressively and leaves his hips open. But I think this fight will stay standing for the most part, and Imavov is the more diverse striker. He has excellent rear leg kicks and more traditional hand combinations.

Imavov is 12-4 in his career with five TKO/KOs and four subs and is coming off a no-contest against Chris Curtis after an accidental headbutt. But don't get it twisted like Kenny Smith's legs; Imavov was pulling away on the scorecard, his hand speed the big difference in that fight. Imavov is the higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM with a career-high of one hundred twenty-three in a five-rounder last year against the former (that hurt) champ, Sean Strickland. Imavov's Fantasy value will be in strikes landed without a finish. His output could prove to be the difference in close rounds unless Dolidze can steal them with a knockdown or by visibly hurting Imavov from time to time.

Imavov is the (-165) favorite, and Dolidze is the (+135) live dog. Dolidze has a way of making fights ugly and will have a big advantage in the clinch. He does the most damage when he can get inside and land knees and elbows instead of standing at range and exchanging back and forth. Both fighters are finishing threats. Dolidze has the power, and Imavov has the speed. Imavov is more likely to finish by accumulative damage, while Dolidze can bring about a sudden end. The main event-winning streak ended controversially when Dricus Du Plessis became the new Middleweight Champion. I had it scored for Strick—

"IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU HAD IT SCORED!"

This one is another toss-up. I don't trust Imavov, and this will be Dolidze's first time fighting for five rounds. But I think Imavov's speed and volume will be the difference. Nassourdine Imavov via decision. Put that ish on wax.

Props

Dolidze: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+550) Dec (+700)

Imavov: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+600) Dec (+240)

Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober

"What would Renato Moicano do? If he was here right now? He'd make a plan, and he'd follow through; that's what Renato Moicano do." The top five, dead or alive, MMA bridge troll Renato Moicano is back. He's the type to bump his gums, pick a fight, and then go full Ferris Bueller's Day Off come fight day. He has become the Brazilian Chael Sonnen online, "Drew Dober! You absolutely suck!" Should he actually step into the Octagon come Saturday night, he'll be up against the UFC's Bobby Fischer, the Dustin Hoffman Rain Man, Drew Dober. This one should be a crunchy little banger filled with perilous striking exchanges on the feet and technical grappling scrambles on the mat.

Moicano yip yaps a lot for a man with zero career TKO/KOs, but he tends to let his chokes do the walking for him; he has ten career submissions, and all are rear-naked chokes. He's a choker who would fit perfectly on the Lions' fifty-two-man roster. In many ways, Moicano is a defective Charles Oliveira, an Oliveira who didn't pass quality control. On the feet, Moicano rocks a "Do Bronx" body kit, an added spoiler, and some spinning shit. His striking is stiff like vintage JCPenney catalog pages, and he lacks any kind of defensive measures. But he commits to his strikes, has excellent leg kicks, and uses aggression to fill in any gaps in technique. But sometimes his faux outrage on the feet leads him to get sloppy, and he tends to get pieced up against high-level strikers like Rafael Dos Anjos, who pieced up Moicano in a short-notice main event back in 2022. He just tends to get out of pocket like loose change, and what technique he does have goes out the window.

But on the mat is where Moicano shines. Like Oliveira, Moicano is a back specialist. "Doctor said I need a backiotomy." Moicano has a knack for taking the back along the cage, and once he gets it, "Wrap. It. Up. B." Moicano's path to victory against Drew Dober will be on the mat, where Dober has been finished four times in his career. Drew isn't a chump on the mat; he once saw a third round against Islam Makhachev, which is better than most fighters against Islam. But Dober rocks a fifty-six percent takedown defense and struggles getting back to his feet. In nearly all of Moicano's seventeen career dubs, he scored at least one takedown. He can stand and bang with Dober, but Moicano will be at a severe power disadvantage.

Drew Dober's chin line is sharper than a motherf**kin' razor blade. Say, money brings Bettys, and Bettys bring lies. One homie getting jealous, and motherf**kers die. Picture Drew rollin'. Drew depends on his left hand like the first and fifteenth. Drew Dober's left hand has put his kids through college and medical school. He has a Beer League left hand, gunning one hoppers to the plate with no cutoff man, and nobody can attest to that more than my favorite fighter, Bobby Green. Dober got pieced up for two and a half rounds but only needed Bobby to make one mistake to put him to sleep. That mistake: getting trapped against the cage. Dober is excellent at using the cage to corral opponents and unload once he has them trapped. If you try to exit to his lead-hand side, he directs you back into his left by using his right hook. STAY OFF THE CAGE against Drew Dober. I tried to tell Bobby, but he didn't listen. This will be a classic orthodox vs. southpaw matchup, and the key against Dober is winning the lead foot battle. Dober consistently steps outside the opposite stance fighter's lead leg and uses the superior angle to line up his left hand. If Moicano allows Dober to get outside of his lead shoulder, Drew will punch holes in him like dudes named Tyler and drywall. But none of that will matter if Drew can't keep his back off the mat. And when he does end up on the mat (which he will), he has to get back to his feet without exposing his back. If he can keep this standing, he will have a power advantage that has led to fourteen wins via TKO/KO in his career.

Fantasy-wise, both fighters average just over four and a half SLpM, but Moicano also averages over one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Moicano is 17-5 for his career with ten subs, and Dober is 27-12 with fourteen TKO/KOs and six subs. The favorite will be Moicano, returning (-145), and Dober will be the dog, returning (+120). Both fighters are finishing threats, Moicano on the mat and Dober on the feet. Moicano has been finished via TKO/KO three times, and Dober has been sub'd four times. Dober has won four out of his last five and is a perennial sleeper, but I don't think he can stay on his feet long enough to avoid Moicano's submission game. Moicano's last five dubs all came via rear naked choke. What would Renato Moicano do? He would choke out Drew Dober in the second round; that's what Renato Moicano do. Renato Moicano via rear-naked choke, round two. On wax.

Props

Moicano: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+120) Dec (+400)

Dober: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+2200) Dec (+900)

Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov

Kung Fu Panda is back. Never fook with dudes rocking a peninsula hairline. My man, Muslim Salikhov, has that State of Florida fade. With one stroke of the clippers, he could turn Florida into an island and fulfill all the ManBearPig prophesies. But don't let any of that shit fool you; Muslim Salikhov is a deadly striker with more spins than LPs in the seventies. And Randy Brown is a long striker who will turn this fight into a battle of range. Brown has the length to stifle Salikhov's spinning attacks and turn this into a dope little stand-up banger.

Muslim Salikhov is a spinning technique specialist. He doesn't just throw spinning shit because it looks cool. He works his entire offense off the threat of the spinning attack. His style is an amalgamation of boxing and Taekwondo, a combination rarely seen. He fires his hands from the chest, and the low hand profile allows him to get the drop on the opponent's defenses by attacking from a low peripheral that is difficult to pick up. Uppercuts are the hardest punch to defend because they travel six to twelve, and Muslim achieves that effect even with his straight punches. Then come the spins like weed before liquor. Muslims unleashes a barrage of spinning wheel kicks, and when you start anticipating them, he turns them into back kicks targeting the body. Then he turns the spinning kicks into spinning back fists. Then he turns ALL that shit into Super Man punches once you start reacting to his kicks. Then you don't know what's coming next, and you look like that Mr. Crabs meme...

Salikhov's best weapon is his lead leg. For a man who looks like he wears shirts in the pool, he has excellent leg dexterity. His lead leg is especially light and fluffy like Grandmammy's hot cakes. The key for Salikhov against Randy Brown will be leg kicks. After every fight, Randy Brown walks out of the Octagon looking like the Blade Runner Oscar Pistorius. If Randy Brown had to defend a leg kick to save his life, his homies would be rocking a picture of his leg on a t-shirt the next day. Also, keep an eye out on Salikhov's top game; he may try to eke out close rounds with cheap takedowns here and there.

The problem with "Rude Boy" Randy Brown is that he's actually quite polite. He needs Dan Campbell in his corner. Brown is missing that Sicko Mode; he needs a Tiger Blood transfusion. Tiger Style. Brown needs to enter the 36 Chambers on some ill shit. He has all the skills on the feet, but he's missing the fifth and sixth gear. Overall, Brown reminds me of an outlet Jalin Turner. A house Jalin Turner. Like Turner, Brown is longer than a work week with mandatory OT. When he's on the attack, he uses up-the-middle kicks and long punches to maintain range. The problem is that Randy gives up his range defensively. He lacks counters. If this guy learned a check hook, he would be a serious problem. He mixes in intermittent fancy footwork and can make you miss, but he doesn't capitalize on it. He doesn't make you pay when you're out of position after a failed attack.

The key for Randy Brown will be range; he has to be all in or all out; there is no middle ground. Randy is nasty in the clinch and can use it to get inside Muslim's spinning attacks. Or he has to stay outside where he can step away from the wheel kicks and attack from the high ground. Brown is the higher output striker, averaging nearly four and a half SLpM to Salikhov's just below three and a half. But Salikhov averages nearly one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Brown has to keep this fight standing or commit to his own takedowns and put Salikhov on his back.

The numbers: Salikhov is 19-4 for his career with thirteen TKO/KOs and two subs. Brown is 17-5 with six TKO/KOs and five subs and is coming in off a close dub to the Turmanator, Wellington Turman. Salikhov is coming in off a loss to the Head Sleeper in Charge, Nicolas Dalby. Side note: Dalby DM'd me and said he got his nose fixed since that fight, so I can stop saying his breathing sounds like tortoises mating. I'm a little shocked by the line; Brown is the (-240) favorite, and Salikhov is the (+190) live-ass dog. After being Dead Wrong like Big and Em about Arnold Allen two weeks ago, I'm in no position to argue the odds, but I thought this would be closer to a pick 'em. Especially since Brown struggled against a mid-fighter like Turman in his last outing and got a gift from the judges. This is a good spot to take a dog straight up, but Fantasy-wise, without a finish, Salikhov will only put up mid-level striking stats around the fifty significant strikes mark. But fook it! Give me the dog. I don't trust Randy Brown any more than I trust a Detroit Lions receiver. Muslim Salikhov via decision. On wax.

Props

Brown: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+400) Dec (+120)

Salikhov: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+2000) Dec (+550)

Viviane Araujo vs. Natalia Silva

This is a crunchy little banger; don't sleep on this one. Natalia Silva is the truth. Her Karate style travels along the Wonderboy spectrum, and she has been MMA-conditioned to face fighters who want to take her to the ground. And Viviane Araujo gives off that Lisa Left Eye vibe. Like she'll turn your ass into Andre Rison and burn down your house real quick. You better call State Farm before you get into a scrap with Viviane Araujo. Speaking of fires, this one will be a nasty little firefight if Natalia Silva's takedown defense can hold up against a high-level grappler like Araujo as it has against wrestlers in all four of her UFC bouts.

You've probably heard of Viviane Araujo before. She once headlined a card against the current champ, Alexa Grasso. Araujo is all power everything and no finesse nothing. On the feet, she's a closer, coming in late in the ball game and throwing nothing but triple-digit fastballs. ABCs: Always be closing. The Angels should sign Araujo before they lose Trout like they did Shohei. Yeah, I'm an Angels fan. Yeah, I'm bitter. Wait. You're a Cowboys AND Angels fan!? Yeah, you thought you had it bad, huh? Anywho, Araujo's stand-up consists of two and four-seam fastballs, basic 1s, 2s, 1-2s, 2-3s, and not much else. She does just enough to get by on her feet. Cue that Talib Kweli, "Just to get by! Just to get by!" Araujo's modus operandi is winning fights using her superior athletic ability. She's not exceptionally great at anything, but she is strong as fook, homies. She would manhandle anybody reading this, like Tina from Norway.

"Holy shit, it's Bigfoot!"

"That's a huge b***h!"

"Keep it in the circus, buddy!"

For the record, I ain't your buddy, guy. Viviane will get pieced up on the feet in this one. Her power can keep Natalia Silva honest, but Silva's speed will cause Araujo all sorts of problems. Araujo wins fights with power double legs and by maintaining top control. Araujo managed to win her last bout against Jennifer Maia by unanimous decision and only landed twenty-four significant strikes and two takedowns. She's a Fantasy Josh Reynolds. Viviane is 12-5 for her career with three TKO/KOs and four subs, and averages just under four and a half SLpM.

Natalia Silva is so fast she will whoop your ass and call her own fight at the desk with DC and Anik. She is faster than your first time. Silva is your dream woman if you have a foot fetish; she keeps her feet in your face for the entire fifteen minutes. She has Salsa hip feints and a front snap kick that she uses as a second jab. Her footwork is on some Dancing with the Stars type-ish. She runs track round the outside, round the outside, and never stops for a breather. Silva is a human feint. She never stops feinting the entire fight, hip feints, hand feints, kicks feints; it never ends. Her hands stay in constant motion and hypnotize you like Biggie and Puff. She feints so much that she uses her emergency blinkers to change lanes. But her best attribute is that she sandwiches her hand combinations between kicks. She starts combinations with kicks and ends with kicks.

The most important stat of this matchup is Silva's noinety-two percent takedown defense in four UFC bouts. And every opponent she has faced has been a wrestler/grappler who tried desperately to get her to the mat. BUT (big but), she hasn't faced a woman as strong as Araujo. Silva has to use her speed and movement to stay on the outside and make Araujo have to shoot from angles and attack singles instead of doubles. If she can stay on her feet, Silva can outclass Araujo. But she will have to be wary of Araujo's right hand. Silva's major malfunction on the feet is she never moves her head off the centerline, and it will be served on a platter for Araujo's right hand.

Silva averages over five SLpM and will be the higher output striker. She will also be the massive (-375) favorite, making Araujo a live dog, returning (+270). If Araujo's double leg is on point, she can ride out top control to a decision. And she will have a power puncher's chance on the feet. But speed kills; it's the single most difficult physical attribute to overcome. Natalia Silva via decision. Put that ish on wax.

Props

Araujo: TKO/KO (+1600) Sub (+1800) Dec (+400)

Silva: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+650) Dec (-150)

Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Makmud Muradov

If Makmud Muradov wants to walk away with a dub, this will be a striker vs. wrestler matchup. Aliaskhab Khizriev looks/fights like a swollen Khabib. He's stubbed Khabib. Sprained Khabib. And I shouldn't have to tell you this but don't f**k with anybody rocking a chinstrap beard. There's a one hundred percent chance you will come away with your facial features rearranged like Mr. Potatoe Head, looking like Sloth from Goonies. This guy is a literal world-beater on the mat; he'll punch a fookin hole in the earth all the way down to the crab people lair. Makmud Muradov is no grappling intern on the mat; he has some wrestling of his own, but his success in this fight will be dependent on keeping it standing and throwing his wide hooks with the aggression he used to have when he first made his debut.

Makmud Muradov looks like an aerodynamic Dan Henderson and has the H-Bomb in his right hand. Muradov is a right-hand extremist. He throws that bish from twelve to six out of a low-profile hand position. His hands create mushroom clouds when they land; emergency broadcast alerts blow up iPhones when he lands. Muradov is a gunslinger who draws from the hips and throws nothing but wide hooks and overhands. And when it comes to bodywork, Muradov has the Midas touch. He alternates hooks to the body and then brings them up to the head. Also, Muradov fights well while moving backward. He doesn't give up any ground without a fight and makes you earn every inch. This guy has some of the best dancing highlights around. I'm talking making opponents chicken dance after landing a bomb. He had Andrew "Dirty" Sanchez looking like he was playing DDR and blew out bofa his knees trying to break the world record.

Muradov is 26-8 with seventeen TKO/KOs and three subs and averages just over four SLpM. He also averages three takedowns per fifteen minutes, but his path to victory will be on the feet where Aliaskhab's skills are suspect. Aliaskhab is an undefeated (12-0) fighter, but anybody can get on the feet against Makhmud. This will be Aliaskhab's second UFC fight, and he has only seen a third round once in his career. Muradov will have to long-play the fight and try to drag Aliaskhab into the AB-infested waters where the real sickos dwell. If he can do that, I think he can finish late. But that's a long shot.

Aliaskhab Khizriev is built like the Kelce brother watching from the press box. He's built like the eighth Russian dwarf, Munchie. But don't let any of that fool you; if this guy lays a finger on you, you're going down. You'll be struggling to hold your head above the rising tide of panic real quick. I don't often see a double ankle pick takedown, but when I do, it's usually Aliaskhab pulling it off. And when he gets you down, he immediately restrains you in Dagestani leg irons, the move Khabib made famous but is fundamental to all Russian grapplers. From the top position, they sit on your legs and tie them together with their own legs while keeping your back pinned against the fence. From that position, you're helpless, and they can tee off on you with strikes while you struggle to pull your legs free. Overall, Aliaskhab treats you like a real doll; he violates you. He's a Violator like Chris Lighty. He throws you into the air and chokes you on your way down.

On the feet, Aliaskhab is a pub crawl striker, launching nothing but inebriated wide arching hooks and haymakers. He has a one-minute KO of Rousimir Palhares, and Palhares is built like the No Limit tank. From what I've seen, Aliaskhab isn't a very technical striker, but he has wild Dim Mak bottom-brick power. He's Motel 3; he won't leave the light on for you. For his career, Aliaskhab has five TKO/KOs and four subs, and he's coming in off a debut second-round TKO dub of Denis Tiuliulin. Aliaskhab can finish this fight from the top position with strikes or a sub. Muradov has been finished five times in his career, and four came via submission, including one to Mr. Gambled and Lost, Gerald Meerschaert.

Aliaskhab is the (-180) favorite, and Muradov is the (+145) live dog. I say live dog because there is still a lot unknown about Aliaskhab at this level. What does his cardio look like in a dogfight? What happens if the takedown well dries up; can he survive on the feet deep in a fight? I don't know the answer to any of those questions, but Muradov has the skills and power to answer some of them. The bet for Aliaskhab is a win by submission, but the play for Muradov might be a decision. He could finish the fight on the feet, but I see him defending takedowns, picking his shots wisely, and outpointing Aliaskhab from the outside. But I have to ride with takedowns and the better wrestler. Aliaskhab Khizriev via rear-naked choke, round two. Wax on, wax off.

Props

Khizriev: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+300) Dec (+275)

Muradov: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1600) Dec (+350)

Charlie Radtke vs. Gilbert Urbina

I'll keep this one short...

"Thank Gawd!"

Charlie Radtke rocks mediocrity like a three-piece Salvation Army suit. Cue that "Classic Man" by Jidenna. "Charlie's an average man. You can be mean when you look that clean; he's an average man." Radtke's life motto: If you ain't last, you're first. Like a sneaker that doesn't sneak, Radtke is a wrestler who struggles to wrestle. In his debut against Blood Diamond, a straight kickboxer, no chaser, Radtke spent the entire fifteen minutes trying to land a takedown, and I don't care what the stats say, he didn't complete a single one. On the feet, he's Pusha T, pushes all his punches, no snap. He's all right hands and 2-3s.

Gilbert Urbina was a contestant on the Ultimate Fighter who made it to the finals and lost to Bryan Battle. If he can keep Radtke from nipping his ankles against the cage, he will serve Radtke like a bar and grill on the feet. I'm talking serve him a family bucket with a two-liter bottle of Mountain Dew. I don't see Radtke overcoming Urbina's mullet. Urbs rocks the mullet like an Armani Miguel Torres. He's got that V for Vendetta look, and this should be target practice, shooting empty bottles, clay pigeons, and all that on the feet.

The numbers: Urbina averages nearly six and a half SLpM in two UFC bouts and landed fifty-one in his most recent bout, a second-round TKO of Orion Cosce. In his debut, Radtke landed just thirty-five significant strikes and was credited with a single participation takedown. Urbina is 7-2 with two TKO/KOs and two subs, and Radtke is 8-3 with three TKO/KOs and two subs. Urbina will be the (-200) favorite, and Radtke will be the (+165) dog. But the stat to remember is: Every time I completely write off a fighter in flowing medieval calligraphy, they win. Here's to breaking the streak: Gilbert Urbina via TKO, round two. I can give it to ya, but whatcha 'gone do with it? Put it on wax.

Props

Radtke: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+650) Dec (+550)

Urbina: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+400) Dec (+550)

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Landon Quinones ($7.7k): Quinones vs. Mederos will be fireworks. I'm talkin' a basket of TJ M-80s and bottle rockets stashed under the seat as you cross the border. Landon Quinones debuted on short notice against Nasrat Haqparast and did more than hold his own. He landed one hundred forty-eight strikes on his way to a loss and showed he has that Black Mirror Metal Head dog in him. Maquel Mederos will be making his debut after an impressive first-round TKO on the Contender Series, and this fight will be a back-and-forth toss-up on the feet, chock full of 50/50 exchanges. In his debut, Quinones averaged over noine SLpM and kept an aggressive pace for the full fifteen minutes, even while taking heavy damage. He is 7-2 in his career with five TKO/KOs and one sub, and his only other loss came to Muhammadjon Naimov, a guy with a 2-0 UFC record, including dubs over Jaime Mullarkey and Nathaniel Wood.

Roman Dolidze ($7.6): Dolidze isn't a high-output striker, but he'll have two extra rounds to work with to put up some solid striking stats. Also, Dolidze may have the best shot at scoring a finish than anyone else in the $7k salary range. He's got heavy strikes and is a sleeper on the mat, especially from his back. You don't expect a guy Dolidze's size to be as agile from his guard as he is. He has nasty leg submissions, and that Hermansson TKO was just as much a submission. One of the first dubs in the UFC by TKO/Sub. I once saw Nassourdine Imavov completely gas in the third round against Joaquim Buckley and barely survived to the final bell. Dolidze pushes a heavy pace and stays in your face. If he can survive Imavov's speed into the middle rounds, this will turn into a toss-up, and Dolidze has the power to end it with one strike.

Pete Rodriguez ($7k): I wish you would step back from that ledge, my friend. This guy Pete "Rock" Rodriguez fights like he's standing on the ledge of the Empire State Building. Rodriguez is a street brawler at heart with no regard for his safety. He debuted on short notice against Jack Della Maddalena, and although he was finished in the first round, he had some moments; he landed some heavy shots on Jack before being outclassed by a better striker. But Pete rebounded with a first-round TKO in his sophomore effort, and he's a real live dog against Themba Gorimbo. Gorimbo is a below-average striker with good wrestling, but not great wrestling. Gorimbo's skills aren't built for a View-level stadium scrap; he has to wear floaties in anything deeper than three-foot shallow waters. If Pete can stay on his feet, his power can flip the script real quick. Pete Rodriguez is a live-ass dog and a serious finishing threat. He is 5-1 with five TKO/KOs and his Fantasy upside is a finish on the feet.

$6k Clearance Rack

Viviane Araujo ($6.9k): Listen, listen, listen, Linda. The $6k's seem to represent more often than not. Two weeks ago, Neil Magny pulled victory from the jaws of sure defeat with a last-second TKO dub. And it seems like every week, a $6k sleeper flips the whole board. Viviane Araujo won't rack up huge striking stats, but if she can get the much faster Natalia Silva to the mat, she can rack up control time and steal a dub. Also, she has sleeper power on the feet, and Natalia Silva relies on in/out movement for defense instead of head movement and footwork. Silva tends to run into a lot of strikes, and so far, she has gotten away with it against lower-tier fighters. She won't get away with it against Araujo if she gets caught slippin'.

Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers

Drew Dober (+155): This dude is sneaky good and is consistently underestimated. Stand-up-wise, this is a toss-up, and Dober is clearly the better finisher on the feet. The questions: Can he stay on his feet, and if he does end up on the mat, can he avoid giving up his back? He survived for over ten minutes on the mat with Makhachev, and that ain't nothing to thumb your nose at. If he can maintain discipline and scramble to his feet without exposing his back, Dober will get him some on the feet.

Pete Rodriguez (+210): P-Rod ain't nuthin' to f**k wit! I don't know what it is, but this guy fights like a husky kid who's had enough of your shit. He takes a page from Michael Jordan's book and fights like he takes shit personally. Pete will come out throwing bombs and give himself a chance to win this fight until the final bell. If there comes a time when Themba Gorimbo can't get him to the mat, Pete will finish him on the feet.

Muslim Salikhov (+210): Salikhov vs. Brown has split decision written all over it. It's easy to see Randy Brown's size and length and write off Muslim Salikhov, but Brown doesn't consistently use his range well. The difference in this one could be who can get the other to the mat because, on the feet, this will be nip/tuck. Salikhov's UFC 5 game controls are all special moves, spinning shit, fight changers. He has the x-factor strikes in his back pocket, while Randy Brown is fairly vanilla. Brown won't provide any looks that you haven't seen a million times before in the gym. His novelty is in his measurements. Salikhov's is in his spinning attacks. Muslim is a live dog, and I think he is being undervalued at (+210).

Pick 'Em

Molly McCann (-275) vs. Diana Belbita (+220)

Winner: Molly McCann

Method: Decision

Azat Maksum (-215) vs. Charles Johnson (+175)

Winner: Azat Maksum

Method: Decision

Themba Gorimbo (-250) vs. Pete Rodriguez (+190)

Winner: Pete Rodriguez

Method: TKO Rd.2

Jeong Yeong Lee (-150) vs. Blake Bilder (+125)

Winner: Jeong Yeong Lee