Heavyweight Bout
Thomas "The Train" Petersen vs Jamal "The Stormtrooper" Pogues - I've never been very high on Pogues as I felt that he should have gone back down to Light Heavyweight and would play a better role in that division. At Heavyweight, he's a bottom of the barrel gatekeeper who's currently 1-1 in the promotion. Petersen is a guy I feel could potentially move down as well but he's competed his whole career at Heavyweight and showed some good improvements to his game on the Contender Series. Petersen's defensive abilities worry me a bit, especially as Pogues is probably the faster and more explosive fighter, but technique for technique, Petersen should be able to win no matter where the fight goes.
Pick: Thomas Petersen by Decision
Lightweight Bout
Landon "The Lone Wolf" Quinones vs Marquel Mederos - This is actually a pretty interesting pairing and Quinones is being overlooked a bit. Quinones is still young, has a great team behind him, and seems to have the mindset and confidence to keep improving. That being said, Mederos has all that as well, looks to be a step ahead, and has a nice winning streak and momentum on his side. If I could spot a weakness in Quinones's game, it would likely be his grappling as he dove headfirst into a triangle choke on TUF to get eliminated, but Mederos isn't the type of fighter to be able to exploit that, so expect these two to stand and trade for the full 15. The other weakness in Quinones's game is his fight IQ, and I think that plays a factor for Mederos winning the rounds.
Pick: Marquel Mederos by Decision
Women's Flyweight Bout
Julija Stoliarenko vs Luana "Dread" Carolina - Both of these fighters are not good. Stoliarenko is coming off an impressive finish of Molly McCann and that's made her the favorite here, but let's not forget she was 1-5 in the UFC going into that fight. McCann showed that her ground game is still rather incompetent for the UFC as she put herself into the submission that ended the fight. That being said, McCann scored a knockout of the year contender on Carolina, so it's not like Carolina has done much herself. Bottom line, this is an awful fight, force me to make a pick, I guess I'll take Stoliarenko but her losing even in dominant fashion wouldn't shock me. Give me Stoliarenko to get the submission.
Pick: Julija Stoliarenko by Submission RD 1
Featherweight Bout
Blake "El Animal" Bilder vs Jeong "The Korean Tiger" Yeong Lee - Bilder impressed me with his fight on the Contender Series and then followed that up with a fun debut win over Shane Young in the UFC, but his bout after that was extremely disappointing. He fought Kyle Nelson, who seemed to have one foot out the door, and lost a unanimous decision. Now Nelson has rebounded with some success making that loss look not as bad as it did at the time, but with Bilder being 33 years old already, it's a loss that has completely derailed his career trajectory. Lee is only 28, and he's coming off a win in his own debut winning the Road to the UFC tournament. Now when fighters have been competing in Asia or competing against other fighters who had like Lee did in his UFC debut, that success doesn't always translate well to the UFC. That being said, Lee has the better team, he's younger, he's bigger, and has all the tools to get this win. Bilder is scrappy and will have his moments, so Lee is far from a lock because we haven't seen him beat this type of competition yet, but I'm going to say he has what it takes to do so.
Pick: Jeong Yeong Lee by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Themba "The Answer" Gorimbo vs Pete "Dead Game" Rodriguez - Rodriguez is stepping in here on somewhat short notice for Kiefer Crosbie. Honestly, not a big stylistic difference for Gorimbo as Crosbie is mainly a striker who looks for the knockout and that's literally all that Rodriguez has to his game as well. Rodriguez is a guy that probably shouldn't be in the UFC, he only made his debut due to taking a short notice opportunity and got smoked by Jack Della Maddalena. I do give him respect for knocking out Mike Jackson afterwards so we didn't have to see that clown in the UFC anymore, but besides having heavy hands, I don't see Rodriguez having much else. Gorimbo has dealt with heavy handed fighters before, he's got a 4" reach advantage, and if he has half a brain, he gets this fight to the floor as quickly as possible. Give me Gorimbo to end it with a submission.
Pick: Themba Gorimbo by Submission RD 1
Flyweight Bout
Charles "InnerG" Johnson vs Azat "Qazaq" Maksum - Johnson is stepping in here on somewhat short notice to replace Nate Maness and will take on Azat Maksum. Honestly, probably a smart move for Johnson here as even though it doesn't look like the best matchup for him, he's coming off 3 straight losses and taking this fight will gain him some points with the UFC brass. When Johnson first joined the UFC, I saw some potential in him and thought he could become a contender, but since then he has regressed in a major way. He's lost his last 3 straight fights, but all 3 felt like winnable fights for him at least stylistically. Something isn't clicking right in his game, his fight IQ isn't great, and he'll fight to the pace and style of his opponent, which is going to be a dream for Maksum. Maksum should pretty easily come out ahead on the scorecards.
Pick: Azat Maksum by Decision
Women's Strawweight Bout
"Meatball" Molly McCann vs Diana "The Warrior Princess" Belbita - Both of these fighters are in desperate need of a win as McCann is coming off a pair of losses and is 33 years old and Belbita is 2-4 in the UFC. McCann is moving down to Strawweight for this fight and these two have fought once before as Belbita made her debut at Flyweight against McCann and lost a decision. McCann's grappling defense is embarrassing at this point as it was so bad in her last fight that she put herself deeper into a submission and lost to a fighter that everyone was expecting her to crush. Belbita has the grappling to make McCann look foolish again, so unless we see improvement from her, this could be another rough night. That being said, McCann has the team to improve her grappling and has the striking to really punish Belbita on the feet. I'm actually leaning towards Belbita for her grappling, but Belbita has only been successful against such low-level opponents that it's hard to trust her. Belbita is only 27, so she has the upside and could continue to improve, but McCann is the more proven fighter and while her last two appearances have been extremely lackluster, she has shown the ability to shut down lower-level grapplers in the past so she'll get the benefit of the doubt from me one last time.
Pick: Molly McCann by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Gilbert "The RGV Bad Boy" Urbina vs Charles "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke - We're scraping the bottom of the barrel here. I don't see either of these fighters as UFC caliber despite both of them coming off their first wins in the octagon. Radtke made a much bigger impression with his post-fight speech than he did with his actual fight as he was facing the 3-2 Mike Mathetha in his debut, couldn't put him away, and went to a rather lackluster decision. Mathetha had one foot out the door and Radtke was supposed to hammer that final nail into the coffin, but he underwhelmed big time. Urbina on the other hand got a second chance after losing in the finals of TUF and destroyed Team Alpha Male product Orion Cosce. UFC jitters could have played a role in Radtke's lackluster performance in his debut, and he still got the job done and got the win, but he's already 33 years old and to just cruise by a low-end guy like Mathetha doesn't inspire confidence. Urbina is only 27 years old, still improving, and while he's got plenty of holes in his own game, he has the time to fix those and has already shown he's the much more aggressive fighter. Urbina is always looking for the finish either striking or grappling and I think that pressure should be enough to break "Chuck Buffalo".
Pick: Gilbert Urbina by KO/TKO RD 2
Women's Flyweight Bout
Viviane "Vivi" Araujo vs Natalia Silva - I'll just make this quick as I don't care much for this fight. Silva is 10 years younger, is currently undefeated in the UFC, and has the tools to outclass Araujo. Araujo is a veteran and has serious power in her strikes, so Silva can't get overconfident, but assuming she takes this as the biggest fight of her career, which it is, she should dominate her way to a decision victory.
Pick: Natalia Silva by Decision
Middleweight Bout
Aliaskhab "The Black Wolf" Khizriev vs Makhmud "Mach" Muradov - I get that Khizriev is undefeated, but I don't see why he's the favorite in this matchup. He has some decent wins on his record but the only fighter he's beaten in the UFC was Denis Tiuliulin, and that was almost 2 years ago and he's only fought 3 times in the last 6 years. Muradov recently rebounded with a nice win over Bryan Barberena, he's got solid takedown defense, and he's the much better striker. This was the hardest fight on this card for me to pick, but with this being at the Apex, with a smaller cage, it will allow Khizriev to close the distance easier. I wouldn't be shocked if Muradov wins this fight, but I'll go with Khizriev to win a boring decision.
Pick: Aliaskhab Khizriev by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Randy "Rude Boy" Brown vs Muslim "King of Kung Fu" Salikhov - These two were originally supposed to fight on the prelims of the last PPV of 2023 UFC 296. I wrote my prediction for that and it hasn't changed so copying and pasting here. "This is a big fight for these two Welterweights who are currently trending in opposite directions. Brown is 4-1 over his last 5 fights, he's coming off a rebound victory over Wellington Turman, he's 33 years old in his prime, and he's looking to make a run at the top 15. Salikhov is 3-2 over his last 5 fights, 1-2 over his last 3, is coming off a decision loss to Nicolas Dalby, he's 39 years old, and needs a win here to avoid the retirement talks. If Brown can score a win over Salikhov, it would still be a big victory for him and allow him to move up in the division and potentially be facing a ranked contender next. For Salikhov, a win here is a must to show that he still has some gas left in the tank. Otherwise, Salikhov is going to drop down the division into the shark infested waters that is the Welterweight division and likely never be able to rise up this far again.
Brown is the former ROC champ, he's a brown belt in BJJ, and he's a huge Welterweight at 6'3″. He's finished 11 of his 17 pro wins with 6 KO/TKOs and 5 submissions.
Salikhov is a 7-time gold medalist in Wushu Sanda including winning a gold medal at the 2008 Olympics, an honored master of sport in Wushu Sanda, a master of sport in complex martial arts, and a blue belt in BJJ. He's finished 15 of his 19 pro wins with 12 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions.
Brown is looking to be a sizeable favorite in this fight, and I feel that's due in part to Salikhov's last performance. He lost a decision to Nicolas Dalby, but that loss is aging well as Dalby went on to become the first to defeat Gabriel Bonfim and did so in extremely impressive fashion. Salikhov is still dangerous, Dalby is just a tough out for just about anyone in the division. Salikhov has ways to win this fight, it wouldn't be shocking if he straight up dominates until the final bell or even stops Brown outright. That being said, Brown is younger, he's bigger, he has a significant reach advantage, and should be able to edge the rounds out."
Pick: Randy Brown by Decision
Lightweight Co-Main Event
Renato "Money" Moicano vs Drew Dober - This is an interesting fight as both of these guys are top 15 fighters but both are in the later stages of their careers at 34 and 35 years old respectively, and they need a win here if they ever want to move closer towards the title picture. I don't like that Moicano has been out for over a year, Dober can start the fight fast and may be able to capitalize on that potential ring rust, but I'm still favoring Moicano in this matchup. Moicano throws more volume, he's more accurate, and he's better defensively, but technique-wise, I'd say Dober is a bit better and he hits harder. The wrestling and grappling edges go to Moicano as well, so unless Moicano has a slow start and Dober is able to blitz him and land some big shots, this is Moicano's fight to lose. I do worry about Moicano's ring rust, along with his previous knee injury, and his chin, so this is far from a lock. Moicano's wrestling isn't great and Dober could shut it down and start swinging for the fences, but Moicano has developed a competent enough striking game to still be the pick.
Pick: Renato Moicano by Submission RD 2
Middleweight Main Event
Roman "The Caucasian" Dolidze vs Nassourdine "Russian Sniper" Imavov - This is a really intriguing pairing as Dolidze has more of the momentum on his side right now despite coming off a loss, but he's 35 years old, compared to Imavov who is 27 but hasn't won a fight in over a year. Father time is going to start catching up to Dolidze at some point and it usually happens rather quickly so this could be the time. Assuming he's in shape, this is a close matchup. Imavov throws more volume, is more accurate, and is better defensively, but Dolidze is good about not absorbing a lot of significant strikes and he hits harder, which is the equalizer. The wrestling, Dolidze is the better offensive wrestler, but Imavov is the better defensive wrestler. The grappling I'd give the edge to Dolidze, but he's going to have trouble getting the fight there for any meaningful period of time. I was originally favoring Dolidze in this matchup, but breaking it down more, I'm starting to like Imavov. It feels like Dolidze is going to need an X-Factor to win this fight, and he definitely has those in his toolbelt, but will he be able to pull it off? He'll need a big shot to land and seriously hurt Imavov, or he'll need to get a submission locked up, otherwise Imavov is going to continue to pick his shots, stay on the outside, and rack up points to win the rounds. Fight IQ could play a big factor, as Dolidze is going to have to be aware of the rounds, he can't let Imavov get too far ahead on points or he's going to lose. Dolidze has the gamechangers in his arsenal, and he's a fighter who likes to hunt for the finish, but at his age, and Imavov being a smart and calculated fighter, I think we see Dolidze let this slip through his hands and Imavov cruise to a decision victory.
Pick: Nassourdine Imavov by Decision
Cancelled Bouts
Flyweight Bout
Nate "Mayhem" Maness vs Azat "Qazaq" Maksum - CANCELLED - I doubted Maness going into his last fight as I felt he shouldn't be at Flyweight but he proved me wrong and ended up knocking out Mateus Mendonca. I'm still doubting him here against Maksum. Mendonca was an unproven prospect also coming off a loss and I thought he had more upside than Maness. Maksum is an undefeated prospect who just debuted with a win over the veteran Tyson Nam, and even though it was a split decision, that's a big win for your debut. Maness may have an edge on the feet, but Maksum has shown well rounded skillset so far in his career, finishing 12 of his 17 pro fights with 5 KO/TKOs and 7 submissions. Maksum should be able to hold his own on the feet, and control the fight with his grappling to get the win.
Pick: Azat Maksum by Decision UPDATE: CANCELLED
Welterweight Bout
Themba "The Answer" Gorimbo vs Kiefer "BDK" Crosbie - CANCELLED - Crosbie's UFC debut was extremely disappointing as I thought he'd be able to exploit Kevin Jousset's lack of distance control, but Jousset turned into a grappler and just stuck to Crosbie like glue until he got the submission. Crosbie's takedown defense and submission defense was poor, but in his defense, he was fighting a former kickboxer who trains with a team full of kickboxers and probably wasn't expecting a grapple-heavy fight. He's going to be more prepared for the grappling this time out, but will he be able to stop it? Gorimbo has been knocked out once before by a lesser fighter, so if Crosbie is able to force some exchanges on the feet, he can get it done. That being said, I don't trust him to stop the takedowns of Gorimbo long enough to do so. Gorimbo should be able to get Crosbie to the mat and lock up a submission within two.
Pick: Themba Gorimbo by Submission RD 1 UPDATE: CANCELLED
Featherweight Bout
Melsik "The Gun" Baghdasaryan vs William "Jaguar" Gomis - CANCELLED - Baghdasaryan was an interesting prospect when he earned his contract on the Contender Series, but that was almost 3 and a half years ago and he's only fought 4 times in the UFC since. I feel like his time has sort of already passed him by as he's 32 years old, in his prime, and would need to make a run at the top of the division right now. Gomis is only 26 years old, he has all the upside, and he's already 3-0 in the UFC despite debuting just about a year and a half ago. Gomis has shown improvement with each outing as well with his last performance being his best yet in the octagon. Baghdasaryan throws more volume, hits harder, and is the more accurate striker, so Gomis has to cross all the T's and dot all the I's, but he's the much better defensive fighter and the more well-rounded fighter. Gomis should be able to control range being the bigger fighter with the reach advantage and stay safe on the outside, or clinch up and control his opponent on the inside to win the rounds.
Pick: William Gomis by Decision UPDATE: CANCELLED
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