AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Gambling/DFS Preview 2024

Anthony Falcone

January 31

Pebble Beach Golf Links - Monterey Peninsula, CA
Spyglass Hill Golf Course - Monterey Peninsula, CA

Last week at The Farmers, I had a T5 finish for Stephen Jaeger, who fell apart on the back nine in the final round after leading. Not bad. This week the PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach for a signature event in a modified version of the AT&T Pebble Peach Pro-Am. Let's hit a winner!

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Course Breakdown

Pebble Beach Golf Links (All Rounds): Par 72, 6972 yards, fairways aren't as wide and rough is a little thicker than usual already because the USGA is already starting to get it ready for the US Open, smallest greens on the PGA Tour, two Par 5s are reachable by all golfers, one will barely be reachable by any golfer, one reachable for long hitters, Par 4s here are a lot shorter than average with six Par 4s under 400 yards, course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, wind strongly effects how difficult this course plays, above average size fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes, annually the course with shortest average drive on Tour (268 yards vs. 284 yards average) and fewest amount of drives over 300 yards (17%), driving accuracy here is higher than tour average (~72% vs. ~62%), rough isn't very penal since it is playable to the shitty amateurs in the Pro Am (lowest proximity on tour from the rough), out of bounds comes into play on almost half the holes, very small POA greens (half size of tour average and smallest greens on the PGA Tour) that have the lowest putts made % on tour (second lowest 5-10 feet, lowest 10-15 feet, third lowest 15-25 feet), lots of bunkers and false fronts around the greens

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Rounds 1-2): Par 72, 7050 yards, has played more difficult than Pebble nine of the last twelve years, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and 17 is a reachable Par 4, coastal sandy areas on the first few holes but the course then moves inland, lot of trees on this course so wind could be less of a factor but it's a harder course if it isn't windy at Pebble, average sized fairways with just a few bunkers, lot of trees and some water if golfers miss the fairway, slightly larger POA greens than Pebble (still the fifth smallest on tour) but with a lot more slope and undulation

Tournament Notes

This year this is an "signature" event with no cut and a smaller field, with the Pro-Am cut down to just two rounds and Monterey Peninsula out of the course rotation
This tournament is typically the worst to watch on TV all season because of the stupid Pro-Am with rounds taking 6+ hours and the annoying celebrities with their shitty golf shots being featured more than the PGA players - this year with the cut down field, the Pro-Am cut down to just two rounds and just a two course rotation instead of three (thank God I don't have to watch fucking Bill Murray's swing get analyzed)
Weather is a big factor here, in good weather these are all easy courses but in bad weather they get very difficult so lot of variability in this tournament
Course history is very important for this event since its typically so different with it taking so long with all the celebrities and ridiculous rounds, it takes a different toll to deal with that on a weekly basis. There will be a lesser effect to that this year
A lot of variety in winners here with a lot of winners outside the Top 100 and not many in the Top 20, but favorites do have success here
Americans win here (not Euros, only 4 non-Americans have won in the last like 50 years)
No one has won here for the first time here since the 1950s
The leader or co-leader after 54 holes, has gone on to win 13 times since 2000 including 9 of the past 11 years (Phil was 3 back from Casey in 2019)
In 2021, besides Paul Casey, the other six players that finished T5 were all American and only 3 of the 11 that finished T10 here were not American (and only 6 of the T25)
12 of the last 15 winners here played at least 3 events in January and February prior to playing here (Justin Rose last year, who had played just two, Vaughn Taylor and Phil are the only ones not to)
Justin Rose (who had a T18), Ted Potter, Phil (in 2012), Vaughn Taylor and Nick Taylor are the only 5 winners the last 14 years that didn't have a T15 in one of their 3 prior events that calendar year
Including US Opens, every winner at Pebble Beach since 2000 has a T16 or better in one or more of their previous three starts here
The field being much strong for this year in this event could buck a lot of the trends for this tournament

Key Stats

Approach (4x more impactful here than SG: OTT), SG: ARG, Par 4 Scoring, GIR

Main proximity distance range on approach (Pebble Beach): 100-125 yards (22.1%), 200+ yards (21.4%)

Field

80 golfers - Very strong field strength with by far the best we've seen this event with it as a "signature event"

Defending Champion: Justin Rose (-18)

Runner Up Last Year: Brendon Todd, Brandon Wu (-15)

One and Done: Viktor Hovland

One and Done Considerations: Hovland, Scheffler, Homa

Players

Viktor Hovland: 10200: +1400 - One of the best players in the field, finished 13th and 38th his two times here (last year and 2020), 22,1,1,13,13,25,29,19,1,16,2,43,59,7,3,10 finishes in his last 16 PGA Tour events, 11th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 20th in Par 3 scoring, 44th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 25th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 11th in Par 5 scoring, 40th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 44th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 26th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in GIR Gained

Collin Morikawa: 9100: +2000 - He let me down last week with a great first round and then falling apart to miss the cut, first time playing this event but he pops in my model enough that I think it's worth it, MC,5,1,6,25,13,MC,2,MC,14,29,26,MC,31,10,13 finishes in his last 16 events, 3rd in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 3 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 28th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 4th in Par 5 scoring, 5th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 13th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 31st in Proximity 200+ yards, 36th in SG: ARG, 67th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in GIR Gained

J.T. Poston: 7900: +5000 - Playing great golf right now and pops again on my model this week, 11,6,5,44,3,22,24,7,2,41,6,6 in his previous twelve events, 68 and 66 finishes his two times here in 2018 and 2017, 13th in Approach, 60th in SG: OTT, 15th in Par 3 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 33rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 10th in Par 5 scoring, 27th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 14th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 42nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 13th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in GIR Gained, also taking the T6 each way

Eric Cole: 7300: +6600 - Finally missed his first cut last week since last May, I'm still chasing him as he's still in the Top 5 in my model every single week, can't stay off betting him, he's going to win eventually and I'm still going to be down betting on him, played fantastic in the swing season, I rode him all fall and he wasn't able to get a win but consistently played great, finished 15th here his only time here last season, MC,21,13,14,3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 19 events, 9th in Approach, 58th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 3 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 37th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 56th in Par 5 scoring, 9th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 47th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 24th in Proximity 200+ yards, 25th in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 51st in GIR Gained, also taking the T6 each way

Lucas Glover: 6500: +25000 - Pops in my model this week, MC,50,7,11,MC finishes here, MC,29,45,59,18,22,1,1,MC,5,6,4 finishes in his last twelve events, 2nd in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 35th in Par 3 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 10th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 51st in Par 5 scoring, 4th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 1st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 34th in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in SG: ARG, 47th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in GIR Gained, also taking his T5

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 3 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards (5%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (5%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Proximity 100-125 yards (10%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

GIR Gained (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

No TV cameras or ShotLink data on Spyglass, which could lead to nice live betting opportunities
Dial back exposure a bit on this tournament cause its typically a fucking joke because of the Pro-Am format (should be slightly less so this year, but the no cut with the smaller field throws a bit more of a wrench in it)