For the first time since mid-August, the UFC is airing a card on ESPN. Okay, only the main card is being shown on there, while the prelims are relegated to ESPN+. Despite losing its original co-main, a key Middleweight bout between former title challenger Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze, as well as a Khalil Rountree fight, there's a lot to like about this card.
The main event is an extremely important Lightweight bout between fourth-ranked Beneil Dariush and eighth-ranked Arman Tsarukyan, which could yield some slick grappling exchanges while establishing a contender in the division. The new co-main event is also a Lightweight bout, with Jalin Turner stepping in on short notice to take on Bobby Green. The featured bout is good enough to warrant a featured slot on a PPV main card, as former two-time Flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo makes his Bantamweight debut against the always exciting Rob Font. Add in a ranked Bantamweight bout between former Ultimate Fighter winner Kelvin Gastelum and Sean Brady, as well as a quality bout between longtime fan favorite Clay Guida and Joaquim Silva, and you have a main card worth watching in its entirety.
While the prelims are on ESPN+ for a reason, there is some name recognition on there, primarily former Women's Bantamweight champion Miesha Tate. Plus, the start time is fan-friendly, and the event is taking place in an actual arena instead of the APEX. Long story short, this should be a very nice card, least throughout the main card.
Preliminary Card (4/3c, ESPN+)
Veronica Hardy (7-4-1) vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-0)
The opening bout pits former LFA Women's Flyweight champion Jamey-Lyn Horth against Veronica Hardy. It's a tough fight to pick, since Hardy is 2-4 in the UFC and has had one fight since 2020, while Horth has just two decent wins on her resume. Horth is the finisher of the two, having ended five of her six wins before the final bell. However, it's fair to wonder if her lack of inexperience will hinder her UFC career. Hardy may have won two of her last three fights, but she only has one good win of her own. Horth is the slight favorite, and while I don't know what her ceiling is, I do think she'll have enough to win this fight. Prediction: Horth via decision or late tko.
Jared Gooden (22-9) vs. Wellington Turman (18-7)
Next up is a key Welterweight bout, where both fighters in desperate need of a win. Gooden went 4-1 after getting cut from his initial UFC stint, but fell short in his return bout. If he loses this fight, he'll have a UFC record of 1-5. Turman is 3-6 inside the octagon, including two straight losses. It's possible that the loser of this fight will get cut soon thereafter. Even though Turman has a clear ceiling, at least he's shown he can been UFC opponents on occasion. I may not be much of a fan, but I have to pick him by default. Prediction: Turman via decision.
Ihor Potieria (20-4) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (11-2)
Next up is a fight between former LFA Light Heavyweight champion Rodolfo Bellato and Ihor Poteira. Both are finishing machines, having finished 31 of their 37 combined fights. Bellato is less experienced on paper, but his resume is genuinely better than Potieria's. Other than a win over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in Rua's retirement fight, Potieria's fought cans and can crushers throughout his career. His record looks good, but it's undoubtedly padded. This should be a wild and fun fight, but I trust the debuting Bellato more than I trust Potieria at this point. Prediction: Bellato via tko, round 2.
Drakkar Klose (13-2-1) vs Joe Solecki (13-3)
The best fight of the prelim features Drakkar Klose against Joe Solecki. This fight should be on the main card and, if not for the high possibility of it going the distance, it probably would've gotten better treatment. Klose has a great record and is 7-2 inside the octagon, but he's also gone the distance in nine of his last eleven fights. He's got really good wrestling chops and reliable power that he can use when needed, so he's definitely skilled.
Solecki is one-dimensional compared to Klose, but his grappling chops are undeniable. He's got a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, has eight submission wins and is 5-1 inside the octagon. If not for a close loss against Jared Gooden in 2021, he'd be on a nine-fight winning streak. While I trust him on the ground a bit more than Klose, I don't trust him to be able to submit Klose. In the striking department, Klose blows Solecki out of the water. I'm not saying Solecki can't win this fight, but I do believe that Klose will win it in the end. Prediction: Klose via decision.
Zach Reese (6-0) vs. Cody Brundage (9-5)
This is a must-win fight for Cody Brundage. He's lost three of his last four, with the lone win coming via disqualification. Reese is a random Contender Series alum who has only beaten cans and can crushers. If Brundage can't win this fight, he's definitely getting cut. Prediction: Brundage via tko, round 2.
Miesha Tate (19-9) vs. Julia Avila (9-2)
Sigh. The headlining prelim bout pits former UFC and Strikeforce Women's Bantamweight champion Miesha Tate against Julia Avila, but it's really hard to feign excitement for it. Tate returned from a five-year retirement in 2021 and beat Marion Reneau, but has looked glacially slow in two straight losses since then. She's 37, is 1-4 since her iconic comeback title win in March 2016, and has next to nothing left in the tank. The UFC knows this, and instead of having her fight a hot prospect, is taking a more gentle approach and giving her an opponent that's been sidelined for two and a half years due to injury and subsequent maternity leave.
Avila was 3-1 in the UFC before her hiatus, but who knows how she'll look after so much time away. As sad as it sounds, I still trust her more than I trust Tate at this point. Tate winning a fun fight before retiring in front of a raucous audience would be a dream scenario, but I can't see it happening. Prediction: Avila via decision.
Main Card (7/6c, ESPN)
Dustin Stolzfus (14-5) vs. Punahele Soriano (9-3)
While the rest of the main card is really good, the main card opener between Punahele Soriano and Dustin Stolzfus is a must-win for both. Stolzfus is a Contender Series guy who's gone 1-4 inside the octagon, and three of those losses have come via finish. His lone UFC win came against Dwight Grant, who got cut after that loss. In Soriano, he fights a finisher who looked like a killer in his first two UFC bouts, but has lost three of four and has a clear disadvantage in the grappling department. Stolzfus' grappling is his best skill, so if he can take this fight to the canvas, he can give Soriano some major fits. There's a reason why Soriano's a clear favorite though. I don't think he'll finish the fight too quickly, but I do think he'll extend his UFC career tonight. Prediction: Soriano via tko, round 2.
Joaquim Silva (12-4) vs. Clay Guida (38-23)
Next up is a Lightweight bout between longtime fan favorite Clay Guida and entertaining finisher Joaquim Silva. Guida has been in the UFC for over 17 years, possessing a wild 18-17 UFC record along the way. He'll always be remembered by long-term fans for his wars in the late 2000s, and while he hasn't had a winning streak since 2017, he has managed to alternate wins and losses over his last seven fights. He's also done a phenomenal job of avoiding getting knocked out, as he's only been finished with strikes on two occasions.
As for Silva, this feels like a must-win fight. He won four of his first five UFC fights, but is 1-4 since then. That includes three knockout losses, and he's only fought four times since 2018. While he's a fun fighter, there's only so many losses he can take before the UFC decides to do something about it. I don't think he'll get finished by Guida, but I don't think he'll beat him either. Let's hope the UFC gives Silva one more shot in 2024, assuming he does fall short in this one. Prediction: Guida via decision.
(9) Sean Brady (15-1) vs. (11) Kelvin Gastelum (17-8, 1 NC)
The third main card bout really ups the ante, as ranked Welterweights Kelvin Gastelum and Sean Brady battle for the spotlight. Brady is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt who won his first 15 fights, but got dominated by Belal Muhammad last October. He hasn't fought since then, and needs a win to reclaim some much-needed momentum.
As for Gastelum, this is his chance to earn his first winning streak since early 2018. The former Ultimate Fighter winner has been with the company since 2013, but has been wildly inconsistent since winning his first five UFC bouts. He's coming off a decision win over Chris Curtis, but was 1-4 in a five-year span beforehand. He's a good wrestler, has submission ability and also has sneaky good power. If he brings his A-game, he can and probably should win this fight. That's a tall order though, and I have my doubts as to whether he can do that or not. It'd be really cool to seem him kickstart a winning streak, but I think Brady will have enough to win a decision against him. Prediction: Brady via decision.
(2-FLW) Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1) vs. (8) Rob Font (20-7)
The featured bout is a massive one, as former two-time Flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo makes his Bantamweight debut against Rob Font. Figueiredo is one of the greatest Flyweights in UFC history, and arguably the top finisher in the history of that division. However, after going 1-2-1 in his four-fight stretch of fights against current champion Brandon Moreno, Figueiredo decided to make the jump to Bantamweight. It's the right call, as he's done everything to do as a Flyweight, and there's no need for a fifth fight against Moreno. Why not take a chance to see how he does in a higher weight class, especially when he doesn't have to cut weight anymore?
This is a fascinating fight. Figueiredo had clear advantages in power and physicality in the Flyweight division, but he'll be losing those things in his new weight class. Now, he'll have to utilize speed and technique more than ever. Font is a tough and gritty fighter who hasn't lost a three-round fight in over five years, and is known to start off strong. In a three-round fight, it's entirely possible that he can excel in the early round or two before coasting to a win. Against someone like Figueiredo, he'll have to bring it from start to finish. I keep going back and forth on who I think will win, and I think I have to give the edge to Figueiredo. It's the epitome of a coin flip, but I'm going with the former Flyweight champion. Prediction: Figueiredo via decision.
(12) Jalin Turner (13-7) vs. (13) Bobby Green (31-14, 1 NC)
In the co-main event, Jalin Green will step in on short notice to take on Bobby Green. Green was supposed to face Dan Hooker in a five-round fight for whatever reason, but Hooker broke his arm last week and Green is stepping in on short notice. Not only is this matchup more fitting from a rankings perspective, it's a three-round fight.
It feels like most people would pick Turner if he had a full camp, but the fact that he's taking this fight on short notice is making more people side with Green. I get it, since Green has won two in a row and shocked everyone in his 33-second knockout win over Grant Dawson. Still, it's hard to forget about his topsy-turvy and inconsistent UFC run beforehand. He's had winning streaks before, and they always tend to end abruptly. What's more abrupt than losing to a dangerous opponent who's taking the fight on short notice?
Turner's lost two straight fights via split decision, but he'd finished five straight fights beforehand. He used to be known as a pure action fighter who always kept it standing, but three of his last four wins have come via submission. He's only 28, so his prime might not have arrived yet. Even with the short prep time, I think he'll remind fans about Green's inconsistencies and find a way to win. Prediction: Turner via tko, round 3.
(4) Beneil Dariush (22-5-1) vs. (8) Arman Tsarukyan (20-3)
In the highly anticipated main event of the evening, fourth-ranked Lightweight Beneil Dariush will take on eighth-ranked Arman Tsarukyan. This is a scintillating fight that feels razor thin. Dariush's skillset was a big reason why contenders used to be wary of him. He's a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and possesses great grappling chops, but he also has evident Muay Thai skills and can knock people out when need be. Add in reliable cardio, and you can see why many fans thought he'd beat former champion Charles Oliveira in June. Instead, he got dominated and finished late in the first round, snapping his eight-fight winning streak and ruining his chances at a title opportunity.
Now, Dariush has to pick up the pieces against someone that nearly mirrors him. Tsarukyan isn't a submission grappler, but he is a fantastic grappler, has knockout ability and has gone 19-2 since his second pro fight. The two losses were in his UFC debut against current champion Islam Makachev back in early 2019, and a razor-thin decision against Mateusz Gamrot last June. He's rebounded with two straight wins, is gunning for a title shot and could climb into the top five with a win.
The more I think about it, the more I feel like the odds are too lopsided in Tsarukyan's favor. His skills are undeniable and he has contender potential, but should he really be a -300 favorite here? Dariush seems to thrive when he's an underdog, and that's the kind of scenario that fuels his success. I get why Tsarukyan is favored, but the odds feel disrespectful towards Dariush. Maybe I'm looking too deep into it, but I think Dariush will come out hungry and motivated, and will find a way to win this fight. It should be technical and intriguing while it lasts, but I'm picking the veteran to come out on top. Prediction: Dariush via decision.
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