Beneil Dariush (3.25) vs. Armen Tsarukyan (1.36)
Dariush is 16-5-1 in UFC, 22-5-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Tsarukyan is 7-2 in UFC, 20-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Dariush (34) was one win away from earning a LW title shot but he was finished by Charles Oliveira (KO) in the first round at UFC 289. That brought an end to a really impressive nine fight win streak - the last of those wins came over Mateusz Gamrot (decision) at UFC 280, which was his return from an 18-month layoff. 2-0 in 2021 with those wins coming over Tony Ferguson (decision) and Diego Ferreira (decision) - the latter a rematch of an earlier clash at UFC 179, which Dariush also won by decision. 2020 saw him pick up a pair of highlight victories over Drakkar Klose (KO) and Scott Holtzman (KO), building upon wins at the beginning of the streak against Frank Camacho (submission), Drew Dober (submission) and Thiago Moises (decision). It has been an impressive rebound from a tough spell he endured in 2017-18, getting flattened by the debuting Alexander Hernandez (KO) and Edson Barboza (KO) and drawing with Evan Dunham. Other excellent UFC wins over James Vick (KO), Rashid Magomedov (decision), Jim Miller (decision), Michael Johnson (decision), Daron Cruickshank (submission) and Tony Martin (submission). The only other setbacks in the UFC came against Michael Chiesa (submission) and a surprising KO loss to Ramsey Nijem in his second UFC appearance. Came into UFC as a BJJ specialist but has made big strides in his striking since joining Kings MMA - now a good technical striker (has a particularly good body kick from southpaw). 13/22 wins inside the distance (5 KO, 9 SUB), 4/5 losses by KO.
Tsarukyan (27) gets the big fight he deserves having picked up wins over lower profile opponents Joaquim Silva (KO) and Damir Ismagulov (decision) over the last 12 months. He was unlucky to lose his first UFC main event against Mateusz Gamrot (decision) halfway through last year; many thought he deserved the decision in what was a technical, high-faced fight but all three judges disagreed. 2-1 in 2022 having looked better than ever in February, leaving Joel Alvarez (KO) a bloody mess in a second round stoppage. 2-0 in 2021, picking up his first finish in the UFC against Christos Giagos (KO) in September after beating Matt Frevola (decision) at UFC 257. Established himself as one of the brightest prospects in the LW division in 2020, putting on a very assured performance to beat a tough opponent in Davi Ramos (decision) having previously notched his first UFC win at UFC 240 over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (decision). Impressed in an extremely tough UFC debut, winning the first round against current LW Champion Islam Makhachev before fading in the second half of the fight and losing a decision. Caught the UFC's attention with regional wins over three UFC veterans in Felipe Olivieri (KO), Junior Assuncao (decision) and Takenori Sato (decision). Also has a number of other impressive career wins against Haotian Wu (26-13-2), Kyung Pyo Kim (13-4) and Marcio Breno (21-6). Good striker who also has a freestyle wrestling background, he can win fights a number of different ways. One other loss in his second professional fight against Alexander Belikh (9-5) that was later avenged. 13/20 wins inside the distance (8 KO, 5 SUB). Trains at Khabarovsk MMA.
Dangerous fight for Dariush after the downer of losing his chance at a LW title shot. This is a big chance for Tsarukyan to announce himself at the top of the LW division, I can see him handing Dariush a fifth career KO loss.
Prediction: Tsarukyan by KO in round 2.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Jalin Turner (1.53) vs. Bobby Green (2.62)
Turner is 6-4 in UFC, 13-7 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-L
Green is 12-9-2 in UFC, 31-14-2 overall. Last 5: L-L-NC-W-W
Turner (28) will look to end 2023 on a good note having endured a tough year so far, dropping back-to-back fights against Mateusz Gamrot (decision) and Dan Hooker (decision). He was one of the most in-form fighters in the LW division between 2020 and 2022, finishing all five wins with the last of those coming against Hooker's teammate Brad Riddell (submission) at UFC 276. Last year he also beat Jamie Mullarkey (KO) with other wins in that streak coming over Uros Medic (submission), Brok Weaver (submission) and Joshua Culibao (KO). Other UFC setbacks against Matt Frevola (decision) and in a very tough debut match-up against current top WW Vicente Luque (KO). Has finished all six UFC wins with the other coming over Callan Potter (KO). Signed after a successful appearance on the 2018 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, forcing the doctor to stop his fight with Max Mustaki (6-4) at the end of the first round. Has appearances in Bellator (2-0), WSOF (1-0) and Tachi Palace Fights (1-0). Shaky start to his professional career with regional losses in his first seven fights against Ronnie Borja (5-5), Richard LeRoy (7-1) and Andrew Lagdaan (4-4). Owns a regional win over UFC veteran Gabriel Green (KO). 13/13 wins inside the distance (9 KO), 3/7 losses by KO. Huge for the LW division (6'3). Trains at Adrenaline Combat Sports.
Green (37) has had an excellent second half of 2023 so far, submitting Tony Ferguson in the closing seconds of their contest at UFC 291 before knocking out Grant Dawson as a big underdog in their October main event. as a springboard to begin a new winning streak. In the first half of the year his finish of Jared Gordon was immediately overturned by the cage side officials as it was a culmination of a sequence that started with an accidental headbutt. Endured a challenging 2022, getting dominated by Islam Makhachev (KO) in a short notice main event and then knocked out by Drew Dober in December. Ended 2021 with a KO of Al Iaquinta at UFC 268 - his first finish in eight years - to snap a two fight losing streak that saw him finish second best against Rafael Fiziev (decision) and Thiago Moises (decision). Very busy in 2020, beating Clay Guida (decision), Lando Vannata (decision) and Alan Patrick (decision) before the Moises loss. Initially had success after coming across in the Strikeforce merger, beating Jacob Volkmann (submission), James Krause (KO), Pat Healy (decision) and Josh Thomson (decision). However, he then went on to win only one of his next seven - against Erik Koch (decision) - with losses against Drakkar Klose (decision), Francisco Trinaldo (decision), Rashid Magomedov (decision), Dustin Porier (KO) and Edson Barboza (decision). 4-1 in Strikeforce. Losses to UFC veterans Tim Means (KO), David Mitchell (submission) and Dan Lauzon (submission) earlier in his career. Slick boxer with the wrestling chops to keep fights standing. 20/31 wins inside the distance (11 KO, 9 SUB), 8/14 losses by decision. Trains at Pinnacle MMA.
Contrasting fortunes for these two so far in 2023. Turner is very dangerous in round one but Hooker showed if you can survive then he has a tendency to fall apart. I could see Turner fighting a bit more conservatively following back-to-back losses and he has the length to beat Green from distance.
Prediction: Turner by decision.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rob Font (1.72) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (2.10)
Font is 10-6 in UFC, 20-7 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-W-L
Figueiredo is 10-3-1 in UFC, 21-3-1 overall. Last 5: W-D-L-W-L
Font (36) stepped up on short notice to main event against Corey Sandhagen in August but was out-grappled for five rounds in a poor spectacle. 1-1 this year, showing heart to survive some tough moments before finishing Adrian Yanez (KO) inside three minutes at UFC 287. That followed some time off to reset following a main event loss to Marlon Vera (decision) in April last year - his second UFC main event loss in a row having also lost to Jose Aldo (decision) at the end of 2021. 1-3 in UFC main events having proved too sharp and technical on the feet for Cody Garbrandt (decision) in his first top billing. The Aldo loss snapped a four fight win streak with the others coming against Marlon Moraes (KO), Ricky Simon (decison) and Sergio Pettis (decision). Has managed to stay healthier over the second half of his UFC career after struggling to stay active during the earlier part, which had prevented him from building the necessary momentum to earn the big fights. All of his UFC losses have come against top BWs with other defeats to Raphael Assuncao (decision), Pedro Munhoz (submission) and John Lineker (decision). Wins earlier in his UFC career over Thomas Almeida (KO), Douglas de Andrade (submission), Matt Schnell (KO), Joey Gomez (KO) and George Roop (KO) - he's been a good finisher at this level. Fought for CES MMA before signing with the UFC, going 6-0. One other pro loss to UFC veteran Desmond Green (decision) in his second pro fight. Long, lean build for BW. Good boxer, 9/20 wins by KO. Trains at Team Sityodtong.
Figueiredo (35) has moved up to BW after losing his FLW title to Brandon Moreno (KO) at UFC 283 in what was the final of a four fight series that saw him go 1-2-1. He reclaimed the FLW title from Moreno (submission) at UFC 270, narrowly earning the judges favour in a highly competitive bout having originally lost the belt (decision) to the same opponent at UFC 263. As Champion he defended his title twice; easily submitting Alex Perez in the first round at UFC 255 and battling to a draw with Moreno in their original clash a month later at UFC 256. Won the vacant UFC FLW title against Joseph Benavidez in July 2020, choking his opponent unconscious after a knockdown on the feet and vicious follow up ground and pound. Blew a previous opportunity to become FLW Champion at the beginning of the same year, missing weight before going on to knock Benavidez out in the second round. One other UFC setback at the beginning of 2019 against Jussier Formiga (decision), other wins since then against Alexandre Pantoja (decision) and Tim Elliott (submission) put him in a position to fight for the belt. Before the Formiga setback he had been tearing through the FLW division, finishing John Moraga (KO), Joseph Morales (KO), and Marco Beltran (KO) and picking up a narrow decision over Jarred Brooks (decision) since debuting halfway through 2017. The Brazilian has an impressive finishing rate for a FLW with 17/21 wins inside the distance (9 KO, 8 SUB). Owns a good win over Brazilian FLW prospect Denis Oliveira Fontes (21-6) on the regional scene. Previously a member of the Marajo Brothers Team with Iuri Alcantara but now has his own Team Figueiredo camp (has also spent time at Team Alpha Male in the past).
How Figueiredo will look at BW is the x-factor here. I can see Font being the minute winner and it will come down to whether Figueiredo can get the KO or knockdowns to win rounds.
Prediction: Font by decision.
------------------------------------------------------------
Sean Brady (1.80) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (2.00)
Brady is 5-1 in UFC, 15-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Gastelum is 12-8-1 in UFC, 18-8-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-L-W
Brady (31) will look to rebound from his first professional setback against Belal Muhammad (KO) at UFC 280 - a disappointing performance against a fighter who has struggled to finish fights at this level. He picked up the biggest win of his career in the final quarter of 2021, showing what a good wrestler he is in controlling Michael Chiesa for three rounds. That extended his UFC winning streak to five, which also featured a dominant win against Jake Matthews at UFC 259 that saw him lock in an arm triangle in the third round to force the tap. Distinguished himself as a WW prospect to watch in his first few years in the organisation; he went 2-0 in 2020, submitting Christian Aguilera in the second round with a mounted guillotine and earning a convincing unanimous decision win over Ismail Naurdiev. Debuted in the UFC in October 2019, drawing a potentially tricky veteran opponent in Court McGee but dealing with him comfortably in another unanimous decision win. Emerged from the North American east coast regional scene, graduating from the top promotion in that area CFFC (going 8-0 between 2014 and 2019). His best career win before arriving in the UFC was a 2019 KO win over Taj Abdul-Hakim (8-2) to defend his CFFC WW title. Also has notable career wins over TUF 29 finalist Gilbert Urbina (decision) and UFC veteran Colton Smith (decision). 8/15 wins by decision. Trains with Paul Felder at Renzo Gracie Philly.
Gastelum (32) is back down at WW for the first time since 2016; he finished his time as a MW with a win over Chris Curtis (decision) at UFC 287, which was his first fight in over 18 months. He had been playing the role of MW gatekeeper for the top 10, picking up losses against Jared Cannonier (decision), Robert Whittaker (decision), Jack Hermansson (submission), Darren Till (decision) and Israel Adesanya (decision) in a bad run of five losses in six fights with a win over Ian Heinisch (decision) the lone success. Other MW wins over Michael Bisping (KO), Jacare (decision), Nate Marquardt (KO), Tim Kennedy (KO) and Uriah Hall (decision) in the TUF 17 final (he also had a KO win over Vitor Belfort overturned due to a failed drug test) and the other loss against Chris Weidman (submission). 5-2 at WW but forced to abandon the division after repeatedly missing weight and/or having fights cancelled - losses at WW to Neil Magny (decision) and Tyron Woodley (decision) and notable wins over Johny Hendricks (decision), Jake Ellenberger (submission) and Rick Story (decision). Wrestling background but has developed into primarily a boxer (7/17 wins by KO). Trained at Kings MMA in the past but currently associated with Yuma United Mixed Martial Arts.
The weigh-in will be key for Gastelum but if he's as motivated as he claims then he's a handful for all but the elite WWs.
Prediction: Gastelum by decision.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Punahele Soriano (1.25) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (4.00)
Soriano is 3-3 in UFC, 9-3 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-W-L
Stoltzfus is 1-4 in UFC, 14-5 overall. Last 5: L-L-L-W-L
Soriano (31) has lost three of his last four after a setback against Roman Kopylov (KO) on the first show of 2023. His only success over that spell was a second round finish of Dalcha Lungiambula (KO) following losses against Nick Maximov (decision) and Brendan Allen (decision). Took advantage of the hands-down defensive approach of Dusko Todorovic to knock him out as the first round was drawing to a close at the start of 2021. Absent during 2020 after debuting in the UFC right at the end of 2019 with a KO win over Oskar Piechota. Signed after headlining the first episode of the 2019 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, beating UFC veteran Jamie Pickett (decision). Has career appearances for notable organisations PFL (1-0), LFA (1-0) and Titan FC (1-0). Owns a good regional win over Rafael Celestino (12-5-1). 8/9 wins inside the distance (6 KO), powerful and aggressive. Trains at Xtreme Couture.
Stoltzfus (32) fights for the first time this year having been finished inside 20 seconds by Abusupiyan Magomedov (KO) last September. He finally picked up his first UFC win at the fourth time of asking two months earlier, beating Dwight Grant (decision). Blew a golden opportunity to earn that first victory against Gerald Meerschaert at the end of 2021 - two rounds up, he allowed Meerschaert to take his back and secure a rear-naked choke in the third round. Losses in his first two UFC fights against Rodolfo Vieira (submission) and Kyle Daukaus (decision). Awarded a UFC contract despite winning his Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series against Joseph Pyfer - now doing very well in the UFC - in fortunate circumstances when his opponent dislocated his elbow defending a takedown. A standout in Germany, picking up notable wins over Nihad Nasufovic (9-5), Jonas Billstein (21-8-1), Selim Agaev (14-7-1) and Arda Adas (11-7). One other professional loss early in his career against Christian Skorzik (5-1). 6/14 wins by decision. Well-rounded without standing out in any single area.
I'm surprised Stoltzfus is still being given fights - this is Soriano's to lose.
Prediction: Soriano by KO in round 3.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Clay Guida (3.75) vs. Joaquim Silva (1.28)
Guida is 18-17 in UFC, 38-23 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-W-L
Silva is 5-4 in UFC, 12-4 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-W-L
Guida (41) will look to rebound from a loss to Rafa Garcia (decision) in April. He has shown he is still able to win fights at this level with successes against Scott Holtzman (decision), Leonardo Santos (submission) and Michael Johnson (decision) in the last three years. 1-1 last year, once again seeing his vulnerability to BJJ cost him when Claudio Puelles submitted him with a kneebar in April - the seventh time he's been submitted in his UFC career. Had a recent run of being matched up with fellow veterans, suffering setbacks against Bobby Green (decision), Jim Miller (submission) and Michael Madsen (decision) after beating the ghost of B.J. Penn (decision) at UFC 237. Debuted in the UFC all the way back in 2006; he's faced lots of high-level competition throughout his UFC career with other losses against Charles Oliveira (submission), Brian Ortega (KO), Dennis Bermudez (submission), Chad Mendes (KO), Gray Maynard (decision) and Benson Henderson (decision). Boasts some excellent wins at LW including former Champions Anthony Pettis (decision) and Rafael dos Anjos (submission), plus Nate Diaz (decision). Scrappy, hyperactive wrestler with 16/38 wins by decision and 11/23 losses by submission. Part of Team Alpha Male.
Silva (34) has lost three of his last four following a third round KO loss to Armen Tsarukyan in June. The only success over that period was over Jesse Ronson (KO) in the last quarter of 2022, which was his first UFC win in nearly four years. The main reason for that drought is the fact he has been so inactive; his only other fights since 2018 were losses against Rick Glenn (KO) and Nasrat Haqparast (KO). That win at the end of 2018 was a real classic, knocking out Jared Gordon in a back-and-forth war. Started his UFC career well with split decision victories over Nazareno Malegarie and Reza Madadi either side of a 34 second KO of Andrew Holbrook. One other UFC setback against Vinc Pichel (decision). Competed on TUF Brazil 4, making it to the semi-finals before losing to eventual winner Glaico Franca (submission). Owns a win over UFC veteran Leandro Vasconcelos (KO). Powerful frame, 7/12 wins by KO. Trains at Evolucao Thai with Francisco Trinaldo and Sergio Moraes.
Silva's size and strength is going to make him difficult to take down and he's likely to be the one landing the better shots on the feet.
Prediction: Silva by decision.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Miesha Tate (2.10) vs. Julia Avila (1.72)
Tate is 6-6 in UFC, 19-9 overall. Last 5: L-L-W-L-L
Avila is 3-1 in UFC, 9-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-W
Tate (37) returns nearly 18 months after losing her WFLW debut against Lauren Murphy (decision). Now 1-2 since returning to the sport after a three and a half year absence halfway through 2021, stopping Marion Reneau (KO) in the third round before a main event loss to Ketlen Vieira (decision). Former WBW Champion, beating Holly Holm (decision) to win the title at UFC 196 before immediately losing it to Amanda Nunes (submission) at UFC 200. Strung together four wins in a row against Liz Carmouche (decision), Rin Nakai (decision), Sara McMann (decision) and Jessica Eye (decision) to earn the title shot. Failed in an earlier UFC title shot against Ronda Rousey (submission), other UFC losses against Cat Zingano (KO) and Raquel Pennington (decision). Also a WBW Champion in Strikeforce (5-2 overall in the promotion), beating Marloes Coenan (submission) to win the title but she also lost that in her first defence against Rousey (submission). A WMMA pioneer having debuted all the way back in 2007. 8/19 wins by decision. Trains at Xtreme Couture.
Avila (35) returns after a two and a half years having had an extended break due to pregnancy - we last saw her submit Julija Stoliarenko in the third round halfway through 2021. Her only UFC setback in four trips to the Octagon came against Sijara Eubanks (decision). 1-1 in 2020 having looked outstanding in running straight through Gina Mazany (KO) in just 22 seconds. Made her debut at UFC 239, picking up a comfortable decision win over Pannie Kianzad. Signed having appeared twice for Invicta FC in 2018, going 1-1 with a KO win over Alexa Conners (7-5) and a freak dislocated finger injury loss to Marciea Allen (7-2). Owns two good wins on the regional scene against UFC veterans Nicco Montano (decision) and Marion Reneau (decision) at the beginning of her MMA career. 4/9 wins by KO.
Very difficult to call - Tate is in the twilight of her career and Avila returns from a very long absence.
Prediction: Avila by decision.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Cody Brundage (3.25) vs. Zach Reese (1.36)
Brundage is 3-4 in UFC, 9-5 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-L-W
Reese makes his UFC debut, 6-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Brundage (29) was awarded the DQ win when Jacob Malkoun landed shots to the back of the head but it was a fight he was being completely dominated in. That snapped a three fight losing streak with the most recent of those coming against Sedriques Dumas (decision) in June. Other losses in the last year against Rodolfo Vieira (submission) and Michal Oleksiejczuk (KO). The two other UFC fights he did win both came in 2022, showcasing his power in defeating Tresean Gore via first round KO and overcoming some early adversity to submit Dalcha Lungiambula with a guillotine. Moved down in from LHW after being out-wrestled by Nick Maximov (decision) in his short notice UFC debut at UFC 266. Unsuccessful in an appearance on the 2020 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series against UFC's William Knight (KO) despite dominating the early stages of that contest. 1-0 in LFA with that win coming against Joseph Kropschot (5-3) but largely untested on regional scene. 8/9 wins inside the distance (4 KO, 3 SUB). Trains at Factory X.
Reese (29) is a graduate of the 2023 Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, where he submitted Eli Aronov (6-1) with an armbar off his back 74 seconds into the first round. He went 3-0 in Fury FC to earn that opportunity with the pick of those wins over Aaron Phillips (8-4). Only debuted in 2021 although he did compete as an amateur as long ago as 2012 (where he picked up a loss to UFC WW Kevin Holland). 6/6 wins inside the distance (4 KO, 2 SUB). Tall MW (6'3). Fights out of WAR Training Center.
Brundage is clearly not good enough for this level; it remains to be seen whether Reese is but his DWTNCS performance was encouraging.
Prediction: Reese by KO in round 1.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Joe Solecki (2.10) vs. Drakkar Klose (1.72)
Solecki is 5-1 in UFC, 13-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Klose is 7-2 in UFC, 13-2-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Solecki (30) will look to build on wins over the last 18 months over Alex da Silva (decision) and Carl Deaton (submission). He had the winning start he had made to his UFC career halted by Jared Gordon, who beat him by split decision in the final quarter of 2021. 1-1 in 2021 having also picked up the biggest win of his career over veteran Jim Miller (decision). Other UFC wins over Austin Hubbard (submission) and Matt Wiman (decision). Graduated to the UFC after a successful appearance on the third season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, submitting James Wallace (8-4) with a first round guillotine. Spent the majority of his regional career competing for CFFC (5-1) and also appeared once for New Jersey organisation Ring of Combat (1-0). Owns a good win over Gilbert Patrocinio (11-4) while his other losses have come against UFC LW Nikolas Motta (KO) and Cesar Balmaceda (6-2). 8/13 wins by submission. Fights out of Gym-O.
Klose (35) fights for the first time in nearly 18 months; last year he went 2-0, finally picking up a finish at this level against Brandon Jenkins (KO) and then defeating Rafa Garcia (decision) at UFC 277. Prior to that he had another long absence of over two years; he was supposed to fight Jeremy Stephens in 2021 but was injured when pushed during the weigh-in stare-down. Lost a crazy back-and-forth fight with Beneil Dariush (KO) at UFC 248, came close to securing a stoppage shortly before getting finished. Started his UFC career with wins over Devin Powell (decision) and Mark Diakiese (decision) in 2017. One other UFC loss against David Teymur (decision), who was able to defend his takedowns and get the better of the striking. Other UFC wins over Lando Vannata (decision), Bobby Green (decision) and Christos Giagos (decision). Big, powerful LW with heavy leg kicks. 8/13 wins by decision. 1-0 in RFA, beating Hugh Pulley (10-6-1). The one pro fight he didn't win on the regional scene was a split draw against veteran Joshua Aveles (27-12-2). Wrestling background. Trains at MMA Lab.
Klose has proven very difficult to out-wrestle and I think this is what Solecki is going to need to do to stand a good chance of winning this.
Prediction: Klose by decision.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Ihor Potieria (4.50) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (1.22)
Potieria is 1-2 in UFC, 19-4 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-L
Bellato makes his UFC debut, 11-2 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-W
Potieria (27) had nothing for Carlos Ulberg in May, getting finished with strikes just over two minutes into the contest. 1-1 this year having sent Shogun (KO) off into retirement at UFC 283. Didn't look great in his UFC 277 debut, eventually being made to pay for his overly reckless and aggressive style by Nicolae Negumereanu (KO) in the second round. Earned a UFC contract when he finished Lukasz Sudolski (10-3) in the first round with ground and pound on the 2021 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. The Ukrainian LHW was very active on his local MMA scene since debuting in 2015, albeit the level of competition left a lot to be desired with Georgi Lobzhanidze (10-7) and Nikita Buliga (4-3) the only opponents he has beaten who have more wins than losses. Two career losses in his first six fights against Evgeniy Vyatokha (5-3) and Vadim Shabadash (9-6). The fact he was taken to a split decision by Felipe Nsue (13-22) in 2018 isn't a great look. 16/20 wins inside the distance (10 KO, 6 SUB), 3/4 losses by KO.
Bellato (27) earned a UFC contract when he finished Murtaza Talha (6-1) with strikes on the 2023 Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. That was his second DWTNCS appearance having lost last year against Vitor Petrino (KO) - who accounts for both of his career losses. Rebounded from that disappointment by going to LFA, picking up wins over Mateus Messaros (14-11) and Acacio dos Santos (15-6) - the latter to win the vacant LHW title. Other notable career wins over Thiago Vieira (11-5), Carlos Eduardo (5-3) and Marcos Matos (5-3). 10/11 wins inside the distance (6 KO, 4 SUB). Trains at Team Nogueira.
Potieria has a punchers chance but Bellato is more skilled everywhere.
Prediction: Bellato by KO in round 1.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Wellington Turman (1.53) vs. Jared Gooden (2.62)
Turman is 3-5 in UFC, 18-7 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-L-L
Gooden is 1-4 in UFC, 22-9 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Turman (27) got off to a losing start at WW against Randy Brown (decision) in June. He decided to move down having gone 3-4 as a UFC MW, finishing with a loss to Andre Petroski (decision) at UFC 281. Prior to that he won back-to-back fights for the first time in his UFC career over Misha Cirkunov (submission) and Sam Alvey (decision) - before that his UFC career had looked to be in some jeopardy when he suffered crushing back-to-back KO losses against Bruno Silva and Andrew Sanchez. Picked up his other UFC win in December 2019, beating fellow Brazilian Markus Perez by unanimous decision having lost his debut against Karl Roberson by split decision four months earlier. Put himself on the UFC's radar with a win over UFC veteran Marcio Alexandre Jr. (submission). Good regional wins over Rafael Atilio (15-6) and Sergio de Fatima (16-6-2). Two regional losses against current UFC WW Carlston Harris (decision) and Gian Siqueira (19-5) - both by decision. Chin is a concern - especially after moving down in weight - you don't see guys get knocked out from guard very often at the highest level (despite Silva clearly having extreme power at MW). 8/18 wins by submission, BJJ black belt. Trains at Gile Ribeiro Team.
Gooden (29) jumped at a short notice opportunity to get back in the UFC in March but was outclassed by Carlston Harris (decision). He earned the recall by going 4-1 after his release with wins over UFC veteran Curtis Millender (KO) and Douglas Usher (13-6) and a lone setback against another UFC veteran Impa Kasanganay (KO). Released at the end of 2021 after losing another short notice opportunity against Randy Brown (decision). One UFC success over Niklas Stolze (KO) in just 68 seconds. Other UFC losses against Abubakar Nurmagomedov (decision) and Alan Jouban (decision). Made it to the big show having acquired lots of experience on the U.S regional scene - after spending most of the early part of his career fighting for the lesser known NFC, he stepped up to more prominent regional promotions including Titan FC (1-2), LFA (1-0) and Island Fights (1-0). Notable regional wins over Steven Newell (9-2), Will Santiago (9-7) and Micah Miller (21-9-1). Other losses since 2019 against UFC veteran Michael Graves (decision) and Bruno Oliveira (9-3). 17/22 wins inside the distance (11 KO, 6 SUB). Trains at X3 Sports.
Two guys who are struggling to prove they belong at this level. Turman's chin is always going to be a concern but I think skillwise he's the better, more well-rounded fighter here.
Prediction: Turman by decision.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Jamey-Lyn Horth (2.62) vs. Veronica Hardy (1.53)
Horth is 1-0 in UFC, 6-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Hardy is 2-4 in UFC, 7-4-1 overall. Last 5: L-L-W-L-W
Horth (33) drops down to her usual WFLW weight class having won her UFC debut over Hailey Cowan (decision) at WBW in April. She graduated from the regional scene after winning the LFA WFLW title against Mayra Cantuaria (10-5-2) at the end of 2021. The Canadian is inexperienced with just six professional bouts under her belt; three of those took place in regional promotion BFL with the best win over Jade Masson-Wong (3-2) to win that organisation's WFLW belt. Has also fought for another strong Canadian regional promotion TKO, beating Corinne Laframboise (8-4). 5/6 wins inside the distance (3 KO, 2 SUB). Has two amateur wins over UFC's Lupita Godinez.
Hardy (28) returned from a three year absence to defeat Juliana Miller (decision) at UFC 286. That was her return to the WFLW division having lost to the much bigger WBW Bea Malecki (decision) in March 2020. 2-2 as a UFC WFLW with other win a quick submission of Polyana Viana and other losses to Andrea Lee (decision) and Gillian Robertson (submission). Lost her UFC debut at WBW against Ashlee Evans-Smith (KO) in another size mismatch. Decent regional win over UFC veteran Karine Gevorgyan (submission). Interesting martial arts background, has trained in karate, taekwondo and BJJ. All of her pro fights prior to signing with the UFC took place in a six month period between March and September 2016. 4/7 wins by decision. Trains at MMA Factory in France, originally from Venezuela.
Hardy will be looking to stick and move from the outside with Horth the one moving forwards. I can see a decision that isn't easy to score - flip a coin.
Prediction: Horth by decision.
No comments:
Post a Comment