It's been a week since the UFC kicked off a month-long overseas tour, and this week's event will mark the promotion's second appearance in France. Their first event in France was a year ago, with Ciryl Gane winning a great fight against fellow contender Tai Tuivasa in the main event and former Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker beating fellow ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori. This week's card also features Gane against a contender, as well as a former champion taking on a rising contender. That said, it also features more relative unknowns, while the last card card was a lot more balanced, especially with the prelims. Nonetheless, for people that have an ESPN+ subscription, it's a decent card worth checking out.
Preliminary Card (12:30/11:30am CT, ESPN+)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (5-1) vs. Zarah Fairn dos Santos (6-5)
The first bout of the card features newly-crowned LFA Women's Bantamweight champion Jacqueline Cavalcanti against Zarah Fairn dos Santos. Cavalcanti has done well in her young career, but she's only had six pro fights, and only one against somewhat decent regional competition. In other words, this is a must-win fight for dos Santos.
Dos Santos' UFC career has been, for lack of a better word, dreadful. She's had three fights in the last five and a half years, has lost all three of them, got finished in the first round of two of them and has fought just once since early 2020. If that's not enough, she's had four fights get scrapped in recent years, three of them because of health issues. If she can't win this fight, not only is she getting cut, she needs to consider retirement. I should know better than to pick her, but Cavalcanti is raw and inexperienced enough to make me consider it. Prediction: dos Santos via split decision.
Farid Basharat (10-0) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2)
An Afghan vs. a Brazilian in Paris? Okay UFC. In all seriousness, this is a quality fight. Rodrigues is a former Jungle Fight Featherweight champion with a 1-1 UFC record and six finishes out of eight wins. He's never been finished either, making him a decent spot holder in the Flyweight division. Basharat is predominantly a grappler and has gone the distance in his last three fights. I don't think he should be as favored as he is, but I do think he'll win it on the scorecards. Predictions: Basharat via decision.
Nora Cornolle (6-1) vs. Joselyne Edwards (13-4)
Let's keep this one short. Edwards has gone the distance in six straight fights, her last fight felt like a gifted decision and she shouldn't be on a three-fight winning streak, but she is. Cornolle is a fun finisher and the first French fighter on the card, so it'd be pretty cool if she could keep her momentum alive. Sadly, she's basically a can-crusher and I think she's losing this fight. Prediction: Edwards via decision.
Ange Loosa (9-3) vs. Rhys McKee (13-4-1)
It's hard to think of any fighter that, barring health issues, got worse luck in the UFC in recent years than Rhys McKee. The former Cage Warriors star was viewed as a prime prospect a few years back, only to run into Khamzat Chimaev to kickstart both of their UFC careers. McKee didn't just lose, he was utterly dominated for three minutes before succumbing to a finish. His next fight was far from a step down, as he lost a decision to Alex Morono before being let go.
McKee went back to Cage Warriors, won his return fight, won the Welterweight title thereafter and then had a successful title defense. Unlike a lot of fighters that get in through the Contender Series or not these days, McKee not only earned his first UFC shot, he's proven he deserves to be brought back. He's finished all 13 of his wins, 10 via knockout and has never been finished. If he wins his return fight, it could be full speed ahead for his UFC career. On the other hand, while Loosa has power too, he's become a decision machine whose gone the distance in six straight fights and hasn't recorded a finish since 2016. This fight could get murky if it goes into deep waters, but I'll pick McKee to finally garner his first UFC victory. Prediction: McKee via decision or late tko.
Caolan Loughran (8-0) vs. Taylor Lapilus (18-3)
The headlining prelim bout features the returning Taylor Lapilus against undefeated Cage Warriors Bantamweight champion Caolan Loughran. It probably deserves a main card slot, but when the whole thing is on ESPN+, it's hard to complain.
Loughran has finished seven of his eight fights, mostly on the feet and feels like he could make a mark inside the octagon. Lapilus is a really tough test who, honestly, should come away with the win if he sticks to his strengths and the gameplan. He left the UFC in 2017, despite having a 3-1 record there, to give boxing a shot before going back to regional competition. He's got a balanced skillset, has never been finished and all three of his losses are against extremely laudable opponents that went the distance. If he stays motivated, I think he'll be ranked sooner rather than later. Barring a flush shot to the chin, I think he has this fight in the bag. Prediction: Lapilus via decision.
Main Card (3/2c, ESPN+)
Morgan Charrière (18-9-1) vs. Manolo Zecchini (11-3)
The main card opener pits two-time former Cage Warriors Featherweight title challenger Morgan Charriere against Italy's Manolo Zecchini,. Charriere, a Frenchman, has had a lot of experience in Cage Warriors and some fun finishes over the years. Zecchini's entertaining as well, finishing 12 of his 14 fights, ten of them via knockout. Win or lose, he tends to deliver. The problem is that his resume pales in comparison to Charriere's, and it's hard to argue that that he has a single notable win in his career. This should be entertaining, but the Frenchman should prevail. Prediction: Charriere via decision or late tko.
William Gomis (12-2) vs. Yanis Gemouri (12-1)
Frenchman vs. Frenchman in a UFC Paris card. This should be interesting. Gomis is a good fighter with reliable striking and quality cardio, along with a 2-0 UFC record. Ghemmouri is more balanced, spent the past few years at Brave CF to prove that he's got what it takes, and is set to make his UFC debut. This fight almost feels like a coin flip, even if I'm leaning towards the veteran. Prediction: Gomis via decision.
Volkan Oezdemir (18-7) vs. Bogdan Guskov (14-2)
Next up is a crossroads fight between former Light Heavyweight title challenger Volkan Oezdemir and hard-hitting newcomer Bogdan Guskov. Goskov is experienced, has one loss since in his last 13 fights and is tons of fun to watch. Oezdemir used to be a knockout artist, but has lost three of his last four and six of his last nine fights. He's only been finished due to strikes on two occasions, and just once since 2018. That loss was to former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka, and Oezdemir has gone the distance in all three of his fights since then. He needs this win, and while he could get caught and finished, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, albeit reluctantly and pick him to win. Prediction: Oezdemir via decision.
Benoit Saint-Denis (11-1, 1 NC) vs. Thiago Moises (17-6)
The featured bout is a scintillating Middleweight matchup between former RFA Middleweight champion Thiago Moises against entertaining French prospect Benoit Saint-Denis. Moises is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, while Saint-Denis has a black belt in Judo. Saint-Denis has finished three straight fight since dropping his short notice UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Saint-Denis is promising, but he's facing someone who's a better grappler than he is. Moises is also more battle-tested, has a slew of good wins on his resume and is 6-3 in the UFC since his short notice debut against Beneil Dariush. This should feature some slick grappling exchanges if/when it hits the mat, but I'll give Moises the edge and pick him to win the fight. Prediction: Moises via decision.
(#2-SW) Rose Namajunas (11-5) vs. (3) Manon Fiorot (10-1)
While the main event of this card is fitting of that slot, the co-main event of the evening might be the most scintillating fight of the night. Rose Namajunas has had a storied UFC career from the very beginning. Her UFC debut was for the final fight of The Ultimate Fighter 20 tournament, which was also for the inaugural UFC Strawweight career, despite the fact that she had only fought three times as a pro at that point in time. She lost that fight, but won four of her next five before pulling off a stunning upset over then-champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in late 2017. Since that fight, five of her last six have all been for that title. That said, she's just 3-2 over the last five years, has gone to a split decision in three of her last four fights and is coming off one of the worst title fights in UFC history. Instead of trying to rebound within the division, in hopes of garnering another shot, she's moving up a weight class.
Fiorot's a tough challenge for Namajunas, possessing some of the best striking in any of the women's divisions. The Karate black belt has won several kickboxing and Muay Thai competitions in her career, and was also a part of the French National team around a decade ago. Her MMA career has gone great as well, including a 5-0 record inside the octagon. She's coming off a huge win over former title challenger and longtime elite gatekeeper Katlyn Chookagian, and a win over Namajunas would virtually guarantee her a title opportunity. Namajunas is tough for anyone to beat, and has the championship experience that Fiorot doesn't, but I still think Fiorot's size advantage and striking skillset will be too much for Namajunas to overcome. Prediction: Fiorot via decision.
(2) Ciryl Gane (11-2) vs. (7) Sergey Spivak (16-3)
In the main event of the evening, former UFC Interim Heavyweight champuion Ciryl Gane will look to rebound from a tough loss to Jon Jones, as he takes on the surging Sergey Spivak. Gane is technical, well-rounded and highly skilled. He might have the best cardio in the division too. Despite all that, he's winless in his two undisputed title opportunities inside the octagon. Of course, the fact that those losses were against the elite of the elite is nothing to sneeze at. Still, he looked so woefully unprepared in the Jones fight that people will wonder if he's mentally focused anymore.
Whereas Gane is at a mercurual stage in his career, Spivak has won six of his last seven, including three straight finishes. He's balanced, with seven knockout and submission wins apiece, and has only gone the distance on three occasions. His ranking is fair, but if he beats Gane, he'll skyrocket towards the top three.
Honestly, as good as Spivak is, I feel like Gane is getting too much disrespect for his shortcomings against Jon Jones. There's no defending how poorly Gane fought that night, but don't forget that against everyone other than Jones and Francis Ngannou, Gane has been thoroughly dominant. Who knows, maybe Spivak is that dude and can get the win in this fight. I wouldn't bet on it though. Prediction: Gane via decision.
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