NHL Daily Gambling Preview – 5/4/23

Anthony Falcone

May 4

Not the worst night for me yesterday on the NHL, with the Devils playing a dud of a game but the Vegas/Oilers game crushing the over, so I went 1-2 to lose 0.66 units. Tonight we have the two Game 2s with the home teams needing to bounce back from Game 1 losses.

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Game 2: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (7:00)

In Game 1 of this series, the Panthers surprised a lot of people, continuing the momentum of beating the Bruins, as they picked up a huge 4-2 win on the road. The Leafs outshot Florida 36-28 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 5.8-2.8, but with a huge performance in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky, they couldn't get the win. This is a must-win game for Toronto tonight. They outplayed the Panthers significantly in Game 1 and couldn't get the win. The Leafs need to win this game and just as they bounced back from their loss in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Lightning, I expect them to again tonight to tie up this series before it shifts back down to Lauderdale. I'll take them in regulation for 2 units along with their team total for a unit. I'm expecting the games in this series to trend over, just like both teams trended over in the first round. The over went 6-1 in the Bruins/Panthers series and 4-2 in the Leafs/Bolts series. Game 1 of this series should have hit the over, with so many great opportunities for both teams, especially Toronto to score. I still can't believe Michael Bunting couldn't score on the chance he had with like a minute left. Both offenses have been fantastic. The Leafs have scored the ninth-most goals in the NHL, having generated the eighth-most expected goals and the fourth-most high-danger shots in the league and they scored the third-most goals in the first round of the playoffs. The Panthers scored the sixth-most goals in the NHL. They generated the most expected goals and the most high-danger shots in the league. In their first-round series against Boston, they scored the fifth-most goals in the first round. I'll go right back to the over again for a unit.

Game 2: Stars vs. Kraken (9:30)

On Tuesday night we got a wild Game 1 in this series. My under on that game was dead in the first 15:20 of the game, as the Kraken got up 4-2 early, with Jake Oettinger having his worst period of the playoffs, giving up four goals. After that period, Oettinger didn't let another goal in and with an incredible four goal performance from Joe Pavelski, the Stars tied it up to force overtime. Yanni Gourde ruined the comeback though 12:17 into OT for the 5-4 Seattle win on the road to take a 1-0 series lead. The Kraken outshot Dallas 44-35 but the Stars outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.26-2.78. With them down a game in the series, I'm going to double down on the Stars to win the series with 2 units on them now at the much better -120 price and I'll take them to bounce back here tonight with 1.5 units on them in regulation in Game 2. I'd lean the under again, despite it flying over in Game 1, but I'll stay off it.

Game Bets

2u Maple Leafs in regulation (-113)

1u Maple Leafs TT over 3.5 (-137)

2u Maple Leafs/Panthers over 6.5 (-130)

1.5u Stars in regulation (-121)

Series Bets

2u Stars to win series in six games or less (+105)

1.5u Maple Leafs to win series in six games or less (+120)

3u Devils to win series (-124)

2u Stars to win series (-120)

Futures

2u Vegas Golden Knights - Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)