This week's UFC event is a snakebitten one. The original headliner, a ranked Lightweight matchup between Arman Tsarukyan and Renato Moicano, got scrapped two weeks ago. The new main event got moved its slot on 12 days notice. Over the last four days, two fights got postponed and two additional fights got altered. If that's not enough, two fighters missed weight as well. This was never a loaded card, seeing how it only had one fight involving ranked fighters, but it certainly feels cursed.
Despite that, there are things to look forward to. The new main event, a Bantamweight showdown between Yadong Song and Ricky Simon, is a pretty intriguing fight. The majority of the bouts on the card are fun on paper, and viewers can choose between watching on ESPN2 or sticking with ESPN+. It's a relatively low-stakes card that should yield some entertainment for anyone who tunes in. The time slot is friendly too, which is always nice. It's not a tv quality card, but if you look at it as an appetizer before next week's PPV offering, it's decent enough.
Preliminary Card (4:30/3:30c, ESPN2 and ESPN+)
Hailey Cowan (7-2) vs. Jamey'Lyn Horth (5-0)
It's rare that a pair of debutants face each other in their UFC debuts, but that's how this card is getting underway. Horth is coming off an LFA Women's Flyweight title win, while Cowan is fighting for the first time since winning a split decision in the Contender Series last August. Both of them are fairly green, and each of them is coming off the only decent of their careers. I'll take a chance and pick Horth, but this might as well be a coin flip. Prediction: Horth via decision.
Marcus McGhee (6-1) vs. Journey Newson (10-4, 1 NC)
This fight was supposed to pit Newson against Brian Kelleher, but Kelleher got hurt and Marcus McGhee stepped up on short notice. While McGhee is fighting with house money, this fight is a must-win for Newson. Newson is 1-3 with a no contest in the UFC, his lone win was a decision against Fernie Garcia and he hasn't finished a win in nearly four years. McGhee has finished all of his wins, and he's entertaining to watch, but he's only two years into his pro career. If Newson can't win this fight, he's likely getting cut. Prediction: Newson via decision.
Stephanie Egger (8-3) vs. Irina Alekseeva (4-1)
What is this matchmaking? Egger is 3-1 since her UFC debut, finishing each of those wins within two rounds. Alekseeva is a raw can crusher with five fights on her pro resume. Egger should dominate this matchup. Prediction: Egger via submission, round 2.
Cody Durden (14-4-1) vs. Charles Johnson (13-4)
Flyweights take the stage next, as former LFA Flyweight champion Charles Johnson enters his fifth UFC fight in just over nine months. His activity level has been incredible, and while he's split his first four UFC bouts, the propensity of how often he fights is a great way to stay in the UFC's good graces. He's a balanced fighter who has never been finished, and I trust him more than I trust Durden. Prediction: Johnson via decision.
Martin Buday (11-1) vs. Jake Collier (13-8)
In the headlining prelim bout, Jake Collier will look to snap the first losing streak of his career, as he takes on the surging Martin Buday. Okay, so surging isn't the best way to describe Buday's UFC career. However, he has won nine straight fights, and he was pretty exciting during his pre-UFC career. Unfortunately, he went the distance in both of his first two UFC fights, and Collier's done the same in five of his last eight. I'm genuinely surprised that Collier's entering his seventh UFC fight since returning to activity in 2020, and it's kind of cool that he's managed to stick around this long despite having one good performance in that span. I think his run ends tonight, but you never know with him. Prediction: Buday via decision or late tko.
Main Card (7/6c, ESPN2 and ESPN+)
Trey Waters (7-1) vs. Josh Quinlan (6-0)
In the main card's opening bout, LFA Welterweight champion Trey Waters will make his short notice UFC debut against Josh Quinlan. Quinlan was supposed to face Ange Loosa, but Loosa bowed out a couple days ago. Waters is an exciting fighter who has only gone the distance once, and his only loss was against current undefeated prospect Gabriel Bonfim, who is also in the UFC. Waters just won the LFA Welterweight title a couple weeks ago, so he's still in prime fight shape. In Quinlan, he faces an unbeaten prospect with a 100% finishing rate, but only one decent win. It's an exciting fight on paper, and I'm going to pick Waters get the win. Prediction: Waters via tko, round 3.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (9-0) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (20-8-1)
Don't look now, but Marcos Rogerio de Lima has quietly won three of his last four fights. He had alternated wins and losses over his previous 10 UFC fights, but is finally getting things on track. Granted, two of those wins were against Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell, who are a combined 85 years old, but it's still something. Cortes-Acosta, a former LFA Heavyweight champion, is an interesting opponent for him. Cortes-Acosta is unbeaten as a pro, is 2-0 in the UFC and has the same amount of knockout and decision wins. He's only got two first round finishes on his resume, so his fights tend to go longer than most Heavyweight bouts. If de Lima can't finish him quickly, things got get very interesting. I have to go with my gut though. Prediction: de Lima via tko, round 2.
Julian Erosa (28-10) vs. Fernando Padilla (14-4)
This is my favorite fight on the card. Erosa went 1-4 over his first two UFC stints, but is 5-2 in his third chance. He's finished 23 of his 28 wins, has a well-rounded skillset and his fights tend to end in highlight-reel fashion. Padilla's an entertaining fighter as well, having finished 12 of his 14 wins, while never being finished in his career. I expected him to get a UFC call-up back in 2017, when he was 10-1 as a pro and coming off a nifty submission win over Darrick Minner, but at least he finally go here. I don't see him winning, but I do think this fight will be a ton of fun while it lasts. Prediction: Erosa via tko, round 2.
Rodolfo Vieira (8-2) vs. Cody Brundage (8-3)
Rodolfo Vieira is one of the most accomplished grapplers in MMA today. Cody Brundage is not. Prediction: Vieira via submission, round 1.
Caio Borralho (13-1) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-5)
In the co-main event, Caio Borralho will look to win his fourth straight UFC bout, as he takes on noted striker Michal Oleksiejczuk. As far as recent additions to the UFC rosters are concerned, Borralho had a much better pre-UFC resume than the majority of them. He had a good run in the Brazilian regional scene, won a title, and even won a pair of Contender Series bouts before joining the UFC. He's gone the distance in all three of his UFC bouts, but wins are wins.
As for Okelsiejczuk, this fight is a chance for him to go to 3-0 since moving down to Middleweight. He went 4-3 with a no contest as a member of the UFC's Light Heavyweight division, but the move seems to be a good one. Both of his Middleweight bouts have ended via first round knockout, and a repeat of that feat would make him someone worth watching in the division. The longer this fight goes, the less it favors him. Borralho's a sizable favorite, but I'm going to pick Oleksiejczuk to pull off the upset. Prediction: Oleksiejczuk via tko, round 2.
(8) Yadong Song (19-7-1, 1 NC) vs. (10) Ricky Simon (20-3)
In the new main event, top ten Bantamweights Yadong Song and Ricky Simon will look to earn a top five opponent with a victory. Song was 10-1-1 over his last 12 fights before facing Cory Sandhagen last September, but got finished in the fourth round of their main event bout. The loss gave him his first UFC loss, but a win would get him back into contention. He's predominantly a striker, but also has the cardio that allows him to stick around when a fight goes into deep waters.
Simon is more balanced, possessing a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, while also having the striking ability to finish fights on the feet. The former LFA Bantamweight champion is 8-2 inside the octagon, only losing to Bantamweight legend Urijah Faber and ranked stalwart Rob Font. He's won four in a row since losing those fights, and he looks poised to march towards contender status.
I see this fight going one of two ways. One is that Song can blast Simon at any point and finish him, no matter which round it is or how deep into a round the fight is. On the other hand, Simon is multi-dimensional and, if he can avoid getting caught with a big shot or flurry, he should be able to win a decision. Either way, this is a really interesting fight. I'm going to play it safe and pick Simon to win a decision, but the idea of Song finishing the night in violent fashion is one that I'm really tempted to go with. Prediction: Song via decision.
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