Yadong Song (2.00) vs. Ricky Simon (1.80)
Song is 8-2-1 in UFC, 19-7-2 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-W-L
Simon is 8-2 in UFC, 20-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Song (25) performed well against Cory Sandhagen in a main event last September and was unlucky to have the doctor waive off a very competitive fight due to a nasty cut in between rounds four and five. Earlier in 2022 he made the most of a favourable match-up with Marlon Moraes, finishing the fight via KO a couple of minutes in. That was his third win in a row having picked up others over Casey Kenney (decision) and Julio Arce (KO) in the second half of 2021 after coming up short against Kyler Phillips (decision) at UFC 259. Consistently fighting top competition now having gone undefeated in his first six UFC fights, albeit he was a bit fortunate to be awarded the decision against Marlon Vera in 2020. The only other time he hasn't emerged with his hand raised in the UFC was a draw with Cody Stamann at the end of 2019. Made a big statement at UFC 239, knocking out Alejandro Perez just over two minutes into the fight. Debuted in November 2017, finishing the over-matched Bharat Khandare (submission) with ease before going on to pick up other UFC wins over Felipe Arantes (KO) and Vince Morales (decision). Excellent athlete, fast and strong. Competed for a number of notable Chinese promotions (Kunlun Fight, WLF, RUFF), as well as a lone losing appearance in ONE FC against Xian Ji (21-5). Notable regional wins over UFC veteran Heili Alateng (decision), Edgar Skrivers (15-5) and Rae Yoon Ok (16-4). Other losses in the last seven years to Alexey Polpudnikov (34-9-1) and Renat Ondar x2 (10-4). First fought professionally in 2013 aged 15. 8/19 wins and 4/7 losses by decision. Trains at Team Alpha Male.
Simon (30) has won five on the bounce after handing Jack Shore (submission) the first loss of his career last July. He had an outstanding 2021, going 3-0 with the final of those a statement performance against Raphael Assuncao (KO). Other wins in this current streak against Ray Borg (decision), Gaetano Pirrello (submission) and Brian Kelleher (decision). His only two UFC losses came back-to-back in the second half of 2019, dropping a decision to Rob Font in December having been upset by the returning Urijah Faber (KO) inside a minute four months earlier. Started his UFC career very well with wins over Merab Dvalishvili (submission - in bizarre fashion with the referee only realising he was unconscious after the final bell), Montel Jackson (decision) and Rani Yahya (decision). Signed as reigning LFA BW Champion, winning the title in a five round unanimous decision win over UFC veteran Chico Camus and defending it with a quick KO of Vinicius Zani (11-7-1). Appeared on the first season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, winning a split decision over Donavon Frelow (6-5) but not doing enough to earn a UFC contract. Also competed for Titan FC, where he beat UFC veteran Alex Soto (decision) and picked up his only other pro loss against UFC's Anderson dos Santos (submission). 10/20 wins by decision. Trains at Gracie Barra Portland.
This moves a week later to be a main event on short notice having originally been a three rounder. Song has arguably the best athleticism in the division and - importantly for a scheduled five rounder - doesn't appear to be a fighter who slows down if forced into deeper waters. Song is definitely the most dangerous striker Simon had faced since losing back-to-back fights, his speed and power make a finish likely.
Prediction: Song by KO in round 2.
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Caio Borralho (1.28) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (3.75)
Borralho is 3-0 in UFC, 13-1-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Oleksiejczuk is 6-3-1 in UFC, 18-5-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Borralho (30) enjoyed an excellent first year in the UFC in 2022, going 3-0 with the final of those wins coming over Makhmud Muradov (decision) at UFC 280. He also had minimal trouble in beating two very solid prospects in Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (decision) and Armen Petrosyan (decision). Earned his way into the UFC with two wins on the 2021 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, initially defeating Aaron Jeffrey (13-4) at WW but not doing enough to be given a contract. He returned a weight class higher three weeks later and this time was signed after finishing Jesse Murray (9-5) inside two minutes. Caught the UFC's attention with a 3-0 run in Brazilian promotion Future FC, beating Wildemar Santos (9-3) and Otavio Sagas (7-3). One defeat against Joao Carvalho (9-5) in his second professional fight. 7/13 wins inside the distance (4 KO). Good frame for MW, it's hard to imagine how he ever managed to fight at WW. Trains at Combat Club.
Oleksiejczuk (28) has made a great start to his time as a MW, smashing Sam Alvey (KO) and Cody Brundage (KO) in the first round last year. He finished his time as a LHW with a narrow loss to Dustin Jacoby (decision) at UFC 272. Enjoyed a positive 2021, going 2-0 with wins over Shamil Gamzatov (KO) and Modestas Bukauskas (decision). Those wins followed a two-fight losing streak - both submissions - against Ovince St.Preux and Jim Crute, which highlighted the holes in his defensive grappling skill-set. Made a good start to his UFC career, beating Khalil Rountree (decision) at UFC 219 as a big underdog before the result was changed to a no contest due to a failed drug test. Returned from his suspension in February 2019, finishing Gian Villante with a brutal punch to the body and following that with another finish of Gadzhimurad Antigulov (KO) inside a minute. The Pole entered the UFC riding a nine fight win streak with notable wins over Bellator veteran Lukasz Klinger (11-6) and Riccardo Nosiglia (8-4). Made his MMA debut at the start of 2014, picking up a couple of losses to Jan Kwiaton (6-2) and Marcin Wojcik (16-8) in his first year of competition. 13/18 wins by KO.
Unfortunately for Oleksiejczuk, Borralho has that grappling skill-set that he's shown to be vulernable against multiple times in the past.
Prediction: Borralho by submission in round 2.
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Waldo Cortes-Acosta (2.50) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (1.57)
Cortes-Acosta is 2-0 in UFC, 9-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
de Lima is 9-6 in UFC, 20-8-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-L-W
Cortes-Acosta (31) stepped in to defeat Chase Sherman (decision) in November three weeks after winning his UFC debut against Jared Vanderaa (decision). Signed after a successful appearance on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series last year, walking through Danilo Suzart (10-2) in a first round KO finish. The Dominican Republic-born HW went 2-0 in LFA, becoming their HW Champion when he stopped Thomas Peterson (7-1) with strikes. Also successful in a lone appearance for Bellator, defeating Muhammed DeReese (9-5). Other solid career wins over Jordan Powell (12-10) and Edison Lopes (11-8-1). Professional boxing experience. 4/9 wins by KO. Genuine HW usually weighing in close to the 265 division limit.
de Lima (37) was impressive in submitting Andrei Arlovski inside two minutes in October. He managed to win back-to-back fights for the first time in seven years in 2021 - beating Maurice Greene (decision) and demolishing Ben Rothwell (KO) in just 32 seconds - before suffereing a setback against Blagoi Ivanov (decision) at UFC 274. 1-1 in 2020, walking through Ben Sosoli (KO) in February but getting choked unconscious with a rare forearm choke by Alexander Romanov in November. Now 6-3 as a UFC HW with his other wins against Adam Wieczorek (decision) and in his UFC debut against Richardson Moreira (KO) back in 2014; the other loss was against Stefan Struve (submission). Went 3-3 as a LHW with wins over Jeremy Kimball (KO), Igor Pokrajac (KO) and Clint Hester (submission) but missing weight on multiple occasions. LHW setbacks all came by submission against Ovince St.Preux, Nikita Krylov and Gadzhimurad Antigulov - the common theme of these losses was that he appeared to give up once put in a bad spot on the ground. Very powerful striker in the early going of fight, 14/20 wins by KO. Lost a lone appearance in Strikeforce against UFC veteran Mike Kyle (decision). Competed on TUF Brazil 3, losing to eventual winner Antonio Carlos Jr. (submission). Currently based at American Top Team.
Cortes-Acosta has won both UFC fights but not really in the dominating way you'd want to see against borderline UFC talents. de Lima is capable of losing to anyone but he's currently in the best form of his UFC career and very dangerous while fresh.
Prediction: de Lima by KO in round 1.
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Cody Brundage (3.00) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (1.40)
Brundage is 2-2 in UFC, 8-3 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Vieira is 3-2 in UFC, 8-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-L
Brundage (28) folded under a ground and pound barrage from Michal Oleksiejczuk (KO) in December - it isn't often you see fights finished with strikes from guard in the modern UFC. Previously he won both other fights in 2022, showcasing his power in defeating Tresean Gore via first round KO and overcoming some early adversity to submit Dalcha Lungiambula with a guillotine. 2-1 at MW having had no answer for the wrestling of Nick Maximov (decision) in his very short notice LHW UFC debut at UFC 266. Unsuccessful in an appearance on the 2020 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series against UFC's William Knight (KO) despite dominating the early stages of that contest. 1-0 in LFA with that win coming against Joseph Kropschot (4-3) but largely untested on regional scene. 7/8 wins inside the distance (4 KO, 3 SUB). Trains at Factory X.
Vieira (33) took a step up in competition and struggled when he couldn't get Chris Curtis to the mat in a lopsided decision loss last June. He has notably improved his striking since arriving in the UFC, looking confident on the feet against Dustin Stoltzfus before snatching a submission halfway through 2021. Fell victim to one of the biggest upsets in that calendar year against Anthony Hernandez (submission), who survived some very difficult moment in the first round before coming back to submit his exhausted opponent in the second round. The nature of the loss was particularly shocking as Vieira is a world Champion BJJ competitor (5 gold medals) whose grappling has translated very well into MMA (7/8 wins by submission). Showed heart to submit Saparbek Safarov in the first round at UFC 248 despite suffering a nasty eye injury in the opening exchanges on the feet (the doctor would have stopped the fight if it had made it to the end of the round). Successfully debuted in August 2019, submitting Oskar Piechota with an arm-triangle having shown off some impressively vicious ground and pound to soften his opponent up. Made it to the UFC just two and a half years after starting his pro career. 3-0 in ACB/ACA, picking up a good win over Vitaliy Nemchinov (13-3). Trains at Team Nogueira.
Interesting style match-up. Both guys prefer to grapple, although Brundage might want to avoid testing himself on the ground with an elite grappler like Vieira. Both are rough around the edges on the feet but Brundage carries fight changing power. Vieira submission and Brundage KO are the two most likely outcomes.
Prediction: Vieira by submission in round 1.
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Julian Erosa (1.72) vs. Fernando Padilla (2.10)
Erosa is 6-6 in UFC, 28-10 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-W-L
Padilla makes his UFC debut, 14-4 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Erosa (33) failed to end a good year on a high note when Alex Caceres finished him with a head kick in December - earlier in 2022 he had picked up decision wins over Steven Peterson and Hakeem Dawodu. Now 5-2 in his third UFC spell with other wins over good competition in Charles Jourdain (submission), Sean Woodson (submission) and Nate Landwehr (KO) - the only other setback was a flash KO loss to Seung Woo Choi. Made his first return to the organisation late in 2018 but wasn't been able to find any success, getting knocked out by Devonte Smith and Julio Arce either side of a decision loss to Grant Dawson. Had a short UFC stint after being a part of TUF 22, going 1-1 with a win over Marcin Wrzosek (decision) and a loss to Teruto Ishihara (KO). 7-2 on the regionals after his release, including a close decision loss to Paddy Pimblett and a KO win over another fighter currently on the UFC roster in Jamal Emmers on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2018. Made it to the semi-finals of TUF 22, beating Jason Soares, Mehdi Baghdad and Aber Lloveras before getting knocked out by Artem Lobov. Other decent career wins over UFC veteran Austin Springer (KO), Bryan Nuro (9-5), Erick Sanchez (11-6) and Justin Harrington x2 (10-5-1). Impressive finish rate with 23/28 wins inside the distance (11 KO, 12 SUB) - 17 of those outside of the first round - but vulnerable against good strikers (6/10 losses by KO). Tall build for FW (6'1). Trains at Xtreme Couture.
Padilla (26) has earned his UFC opportunity having competed for a number of top North American regional promotions, most recently winning the Fury FC FW title against Cameron Graves (10-7). 3-1 in LFA with wins over UFC veteran Darrick Minner (submission), Donald Sanchez (31-20) and Nate Richardson (10-4) along with a setback against Talison Soares (11-2). Other career losses against UFC veterans Dan Ige (decision) and Spike Carlyle (decision), plus Kurt Kinser (9-1). 12/14 wins inside the distance (8 SUB), hasn't been finished so far in his MMA career. Tall build for FW (6'1). Trains at Team Oyama.
Padilla goes straight in against proven mid-level competition. They're similar frame wise but Erosa is the better striker and Padilla doesn't have the profile of fighters that have given him trouble in the past.
Prediction: Erosa by decision.
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Marcus McGhee (2.50) vs. Journey Newson (1.57)
McGhee makes his UFC debut, 6-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Newson is 1-3-1 in UFC, 10-4-1 overall. Last 5: L-NC-L-W-L
McGhee (32) takes this opportunity on less than a weeks notice following the withdrawal of Brian Kelleher. His most notable MMA experience came in LFA, where he went 1-1 with a loss to their current BW Champion Rafael do Nascimento (8-2) and a win over Luciano Ramos (6-8) in January. Other career wins over Rodney Mandola (7-5) and Raphael Montini (6-6-1). 6/6 wins by KO. Only started fighting professionally in 2020. Fights out of MMA Lab.
Newson (34) is in must-win territory having picked up only one win in five trips to the Octagon - most recently we saw him looking limited in a unanimous decision loss to Sergey Morozov in December. He finally picked up his first official UFC win nearly three years after making his UFC debut, getting the better of Fernie Garcia (decision) at UFC 274. That was his first fight in 18 months after going 0-1-1 in 2020; his 38-second KO win over Domingo Pilarte back at UFC 247 was overturned to a no contest due to a failed drugs test and he was finished in 41 seconds by Randy Costa (KO). Debuted halfway through 2019, getting outclassed across fifteen minutes by Ricardo Ramos (decision) in a fight he took on short notice. Unremarkable regional MMA record, losing his only encounter with a UFC-level opponent (Benito Lopez) by first round KO. Short stature (5'5) but powerfully built. 5-2-1 as an amateur including a decision loss to UFC's Ricky Simon. Trains at Impact Jiu-Jitsu.
McGhee has lost when he's stepped up against good competition but Newson is only a borderline UFC-level talent. Tough to call, especially on such short notice.
Prediction: Newson by decision.
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Cody Durden (2.10) vs. Charles Johnson (1.72)
Durden is 3-2-1 in UFC, 14-4-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-W-W
Johnson is 2-2 in UFC, 13-4 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Durden (32) was under a bit of pressure when he was quickly submitted by Muhammad Mokaev a year ago but responded well with wins over J.P. Buys (KO) and Carlos Mota (decision) over the remainder of 2022. His other win at this level was against Qileng Aori (decision) in a competitive fight at the end of 2021. Winless in his first two UFC fights in 2020, earning a draw with Chris Gutierrez in his debut - a result that has aged very well - due to a 10-8 first round in his favour but then getting submitted by Jimmy Flick with a first round flying triangle. Paid his dues on the regional scene, mainly fighting for Georgia promotion NFC (6-1). Solid wins on his record over Varon Webb (10-4), Dre Miley (10-6) and John Sweeney (12-3). Other pro losses against Jared Scoggins (10-3) and Ryan Hollis (14-13). 11/14 wins inside the distance (6 KO, 5 SUB). 3-2 at FLW after making his short notice debut at BW. Trains at an American Top Team affiliate gym in Atlanta.
Johnson (32) remains very busy, fighting for the fifth time in less than a year with the UFC. He's already 1-1 this year, dropping a split decision that could easily have gone in his direction rather than to Ode Osbourne in February having easily dealt with Jimmy Flick (KO) a month earlier. On the right side of a contentious split decision against Zhalgas Zhumagulov in November, which earned him his first UFC win. Unable to get off any offence in a difficult stylistic debut match-up against Muhammad Mokaev (decision). Earned a shot in the UFC as reigning and defending LFA FLW Champion, winning the belt against Yuma Horiuchi (9-5) before defending the belt with KO wins over Joao Camilo (8-7) and UFC veteran Carlos Mota (KO). Overall 6-1 in LFA with the loss coming against ranked UFC FLW Brandon Royval (decision). Other good career wins over Karlee Pangilinan (6-3), Marc Tong Van (9-6) and Jeremiah Cullum (5-2). One other career loss to Sean Santella (23-9-3). 9/13 wins inside the distance (6 KO). Professional Boxing experience (although not much success, 1-3). Trains at Tiger Muay Thai. Tall FLW (5'9).
Two FLWs who have shown they belong but now need to prove they are more than just middle-of-the-pack fighters. Most Johnson fights are competitive and I expect another one here, could see it going either way.
Prediction: Johnson by decision.
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Martin Buday (1.90) vs. Jake Collier (1.90)
Buday is 2-0 in UFC, 11-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Collier is 5-7 in UFC, 13-8 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-L
Buday (31) is not an aesthetically pleasing watch but his style has been successful so far. He was lucky a foul didn't cost him the win over Chris Barnett in his UFC debut; after dominating the fight he landed an illegal strike in the third round and fortunately for him it was decided that the fight would go to the scorecards rather than be ruled a disqualification. Returned to action in August, earning the judges favour in a competitive contest with Lukasz Brzeski. The giant Slovakian HW graduated to the UFC after finishing Lorenzo Hood (12-5-1) on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2021. Most of his regional career was spent in top Czech/Slovak organisation Oktagon MMA, where he was 5-0 and HW Champion after defeating Kamil Minda (8-4). One career loss against UFC veteran Juan Espino (submission) in his second professional fight. 8/11 wins inside the distance (7 KO).
Collier (34) was very close to finishing his fight with Chris Barnett multiple times in the first round but then fell victim to one of the best comebacks of 2022 when Barnett finished the fight with ground and pound in the second round. He's now lost back-to-back fights in the UFC for the first time having been unlucky to come out on the losing side of a split decision with Andrei Arlovski earlier in the year. 2-4 as a HW; other losses against Tom Aspinall (KO) and Carlos Felipe (decision) whereas the wins have come over Chase Sherman (submission) and Gian Villante (decision). Looking at him now it is hard to believe that he started his UFC career as a lanky 6'3 MW in 2014, going 2-2 with wins over Ricardo Abreu (decision) and Alberto Emiliano Pereira (KO) but KO setbacks against Vitor Miranda and Dongi Yang. 1-1 in a brief spell at LHW, beating Marcel Fortuna (decision) but dropping a decision against Devin Clark. Owns a submission win over Gabriel Checco (12-7) in RFA with his other pro loss coming against former PFL HW Kevin Tiller (12-5) early in his career. Wrestling background. 9/13 wins inside the distance (5 KO, 4 SUB), 4/8 losses by KO.
Collier is going to be the more mobile guy on the feet but I'd expect Buday to dominate physically if he can force the grappling.
Prediction: Buday by KO in round 3.
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Stephanie Egger (1.30) vs. Irina Alekseeva (3.50)
Egger is 3-2 in UFC, 8-3 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-L-W
Alekseeva makes her UFC debut, 4-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-W
Egger (34) quickly got over the disappointment of a submission loss against Mayra Bueno Silva, taking a short notice fight up at WFW and emerging with a second round submission of Ailin Perez. 2-1 in 2022 having demonstrated slick ground skills to submit Jessica-Rose Clark in February, building on an emphatic first UFC win over Shanna Young (KO) in the last quarter of 2021. Made her UFC debut on short notice in 2020, getting outwrestled by Tracy Cortez (decision). Notable regional wins over UFC veteran Mara Romero Borella (KO) and Reina Miura (13-5). Her only other professional defeat was in her lone appearance for Invicta FC against Alexa Conners (6-4) back in 2016. 7/8 wins inside the distance (3 KO, 4 SUB). Judo and BJJ background.
Alekseeva (32) is a slightly surprising UFC signing only five fights into her professional MMA career, including a successful lone appearance for Bellator against Stephanie Page (7-5) in 2021. Made her MMA debut in 2019, winning her first three fights against modest competition before suffering a setback against a more experienced opponent in Liliya Kazak (11-7-2). Calls herself "Russian Ronda" but only one win by submission so far. Has competed between 125 and 145 lbs in her career so far.
Egger is a legit grappler and a big ask for an inexperienced fighter making her bow at this level.
Prediction: Egger by decision.
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Josh Quinlan (1.57) vs. Trey Waters (2.50)
Quinlan is 1-0 in UFC, 6-0-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-NC-W
Waters makes his UFC debut, 7-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-W
Quinlan (30) made an impressive start to his UFC career in August, knocking Jason Witt out just over two minutes into their contest. He was signed after a successful performance on the 2021 Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series - he blasted through Logan Urban (6-2-1) in just 47 seconds - even though that win was later overturned to a no contest due to a positive test for a banned substance. 3-0 in top UFC feeder promotion LFA including with the most notable win coming over Dallas Jennings (4-3). 6/6 wins inside the distance (4 KO, 2 SUB). 6-0 as an amateur. Trains at Milestone Martial Arts.
Waters (28) gets the call on short notice to make his UFC debut just two weeks after winning the LFA WW title against Jalin Fuller (7-3). He featured on last year's Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, losing a tough match-up with a top Brazilian prospect Gabriel Bonfim (submission) who will be one to watch in the UFC WW division over the coming years. 2-0 in LFA with the other win coming against Benjamin Bennett (4-1). Very unusual build, an extremely tall WW (6'5). 6/7 wins inside the distance (3 KO, 3 SUB). Trains at Ludus MMA.
You don't usually see very tall guys have much success when they reach the top level, they tend to have issues getting their head off centre line and in defending takedowns.
Prediction: Quinlan by submission in round 2.
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Hailey Cowan (2.25) vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (1.66)
Cowan makes her UFC debut, 7-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Horth makes her UFC debut, 5-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Cowan (31) is one of the 2022 Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series alumni having been given a contract following a split decision win over Claudia Leite (8-3). She mainly competed her regional career for LFA, going 5-2 with the best win coming over Bellator veteran Jessica Middleton (5-6) and losses against UFC veteran Victoria Leonardo (submission) and Kelly Clayton (2-2). 1-0 in Invicta FC with that win coming over Monica Franco (2-1). 3/7 wins by decision, both losses by submission. Fights out of Blitz Sport MMA.
Horth (33) makes her UFC debut at WBW having last been seen winning the LFA WFLW title against Mayra Cantuaria (10-5-2) at the end of 2021. The Canadian is inexperienced with just five professional bouts under her belt, three of which took place in regional promotion BFL with the pick of those wins over Jade Masson-Wong (3-2) to win that organisation's WFLW belt. Has also fought for another strong Canadian regional promotion TKO, beating Corinne Laframboise (8-4). 5/5 wins inside the distance (3 KO, 2 SUB). Has two amateur wins over UFC's Lupita Godinez.
I don't foresee Cowan being able to survive at this level. Horth might have to clear some cobwebs but I think she can finish Cowan in her UFC debut.
Prediction: Horth by submission in round 2.
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