Lightweight Bout
#UR Esteban "El Gringo" Ribovics vs #UR Loik "Jaguar Paw" Radzhabov- Radzhabov is stepping in here on short notice to replace Kamuela Kirk, and will make his UFC debut against Esteban Ribovics. Ribovics is also making his UFC debut as he just earned a UFC contract on the Contender Series in his last fight. Ribovics is a guy I had my eye on for a while so I was glad to see him get the opportunity on the Contender Series. He passed with flying colors by knocking his opponent out just 1:30 into the opening round to secure his UFC contract. He puts his undefeated record on the line as he makes his debut.
Radzhabov is the former GMC and WMMAA champ, he went 4-4-1 in PFL, and scored a win in EFC before getting this opportunity. He's got a foundation in boxing and wrestling and he's finished 12 of his 16 pro wins with 7 KO/TKOs and 5 submissions.
Ribovics is the former SFH Lightweight champ and the former FFC Interim Lightweight champ. He's finished all 11 of his pro wins with 6 KO/TKOs and 5 submissions.
This one is a bit of a toss-up. I like both fighters as prospects and additions to this division but they have very different styles. Ribovics is wild, he throws power shots on the feet and has dangerous submissions on the ground and is always looking for the finish. Radzhabov on the other hand, is a wrestler who will smother his opponents and wear them out. In that equation, there's always a chance for the wild finisher to hit the homerun shot and either score a knockout or catch a submission, but with Radzhabov being the more experienced fighter, it's more likely that he is able to wrestle Ribovics and stay out of any danger.
Pick: Loik Radzhabov by Decision
Bantamweight Bout
#57 Da'Mon "Da Monster" Blackshear vs #UR "Ferocious" Farid Basharat - Blackshear made his UFC debut on short notice and took on Youssef Zalal, who he fought to a draw. That's definitely better than debuting with a loss, but Blackshear is going to be out to prove that he really belongs here as he welcomes the younger Basharat brother to the octagon. Basharat is undefeated, earned his UFC contract on the Contender Series, and is looking to start his UFC career on the right foot with an impressive win.
Basharat is just 25 years old, he's got a great team behind him at Xtreme Couture, he's a dynamic fighter and a dangerous grappler. He's finished 6 of his 9 pro wins with 1 knockout and 5 submissions.
Blackshear is a brown belt in BJJ, he is the former CFFC Bantamweight champ, and the former Conflict MMA Featherweight champ. He's finished 9 of his 12 pro wins with 1 TKO and 8 submissions.
This looks like a softball match-up for Basharat for his debut, as both fighters like to go for the submission. This is going to allow Basharat to fight to his strengths and he shouldn't really have to worry much about the striking from Blackshear. Basharat will improve to 10-0 and keep Blackshear winless in the UFC.
Pick: Farid Basharat by Decision
Women's Strawweight Bout
#16 Jessica Penne vs #21 Tabatha "Baby Shark" Ricci - These two were scheduled to face off back in October but Penne had to withdraw due to an illness and the bout was rescheduled here. Penne returned to the octagon in 2021 after a 4 year layoff and scored back-to-back wins over Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She dropped a decision to Emily Ducote in her latest outing and is now looking to rebound against Ricci. Ricci lost in her UFC debut to Manon Fiorot, but has since rebounded with back-to-back wins over Maria Oliveira and Polyana Viana to set her up with this opportunity against the former title challenger Penne.
Penne is a black belt in BJJ, a brown belt in judo, she was a sem-finalist on TUF 20, a former UFC title challenger, the former Invicta FC champ, and she fought in the first ever Bellator women's fight at Bellator 5. She's a true veteran of the sport and has finished 10 of her 14 pro wins with 2 KO/TKOs and 8 submissions.
Ricci started training at the age of 6, and Muay Thai at the age of 15. She's a black belt in BJJ and judo and has finished 3 of her 7 pro wins with 1 TKO and 2 submissions.
Everyone seems to be counting out Penne in this fight and I think that's a huge mistake. This is a step up in competition for Ricci as her only solid win was over Polyana Viana who has been hit and miss. Penne is bigger, has more experience against higher level competition, will be the better striker, has the better team behind her and is a crafty veteran who isn't going to roll over for the newcomer. Ricci has her work cut out for her here and an upset wouldn't shock me at all. That being said, Ricci is 12 years younger than Penne and should be the better grappler and be able to beat Penne where she is best. The size and power of Penne is something that Ricci is going to have to overcome and I think it prevents her from getting the finish, but with her being the higher level grappler, she should win the scrambles still and get the victory on points.
Pick: Tabatha Ricci by Decision
Bantamweight Bout
#45 Mana "Manaboi" Martinez vs #49 Cameron "MSP" Saaiman - Both of these fighters are young prospects and could be in the division for years to come. Martinez is currently 2-1 in the UFC, with a loss to Ronnie Lawrence sandwiched between two split decision victories over Guido Cannetti and Brandon Davis. On the other side, Saaiman earned a contract on the Contender Series with a knockout victory and followed that up with another knockout over a late-replacement opponent in his UFC debut.
Martinez is a purple belt in BJJ, a black belt in karate, and is the former FFC Bantamweight champion. He's finished 8 of his 10 pro wins, all by KO/TKO.
Saaiman is a South African K-1 kickboxing champion and the former EFC Bantamweight champion. He's finished 6 of his 7 pro wins with 5 KO/TKOs and 1 submission.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Martinez win this fight as he has some serious power in his hands and can change the fight in an instant. That being said, he's yet to really be able to show that in the UFC through 3 fights and I'm wondering if it's ever going to happen at this point. Add onto that, his head coach was James Krause and he normally trained with Glory MMA, so he's going to need a new coach and corner for this camp and that adds more uncertainty around him. That makes me picking Saaiman that much easier. This kid looks like a real killer and I think he's going to be all over Martinez from bell to bell and while he might need to survive a few scares, he should be doing enough damage to edge out the rounds.
Pick: Cameron Saaiman by Decision
Welterweight Bout
#32 Ian "The Future" Machado Garry vs #IA Kenan "The Assassin" Song - Song hasn't fought in almost exactly 2 years from when this fight will take place. Song is 4-2 in the UFC, but every opponent he's beaten in the octagon is no longer on the roster, and he hasn't won a fight since February of 2020. On the other side, Garry joined the UFC after Song's last fight and has rattled off 3 straight wins to extend his record to 10-0.
Garry picked up multiple youth boxing titles before turning to MMA where he captured the CWFC title. He's finished 6 of his 10 pro wins with 5 KO/TKOs and 1 submission.
Song has been training traditional Chinese martial arts since he was in the fifth grade, and he has a well-rounded skill set. He's finished 16 of his 18 pro wins with 9 KO/TKOs and 7 submissions.
Garry has fought all three of his UFC fights since Song has been sidelined, so ring rust is a real concern here for Song. Garry is known as "The Future" and Song may as well be considered the past in this fight. The three fighters who've been able to stop Song with strikes have been Israel Adesanya, Brad Riddell and Max Griffin, all three are pretty high-level fighters. Garry has faced some criticism as of late for only winning by decision, so he should have a chip on his shoulder in this fight and look to be the next to stop Song. I think he gets it done within two.
Pick: Ian Machado Garry by KO/TKO RD 1
Middleweight Bout
#32 Julian "The Cuban Missile Crisis" Marquez vs #40 Marc-Andre "Power Bar" Barriault - Both of these fighters need a win or they can pretty much kiss any hope of making a real run in this division goodbye and they may also find themselves on the chopping block. Marquez earned his UFC contract on the Contender Series back in 2017 with a brutal head kick knockout over Phil Hawes, but has since gone 3-2. He's coming off a first round knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues and his last win was back in April of 2021. Barriault joined the UFC back in 2019, he's 3-5 inside the octagon and he's coming off a submission loss to Anthony Hernandez.
Marquez is a purple belt in BJJ under James Krause and has some real devastating power in his strikes. He's finished all 9 of his pro wins with 6 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions.
Barriault is the former TKO Light Heavyweight champ, the former Hybrid Combat Middleweight champ and he's a real brawler type of fighter. He's finished 10 of his 14 pro wins with 9 KO/TKOs and 1 submission.
One of the big stories surrounding this fight will be the absence of James Krause in the corner of Marquez and where he is training now instead. Krause was a big presence in his corner regularly so he's going to have to adapt to a new corner team. That being said, he's got a decent stylistic match-up here. Barriault is dangerous, he's not a fighter you can overlook as he's going to bring the fight and really make you work, and if you make mistakes he will make you pay. That being said, he's good everywhere but not great anywhere. Barriault can overwhelm Marquez on the feet though as he throws more volume and is slightly better defensively. High pressure and volume is going to be the key to victory for Barriault but that also means giving Marquez more opportunities to counter. Marquez should be able to hurt Barriault and follow up with a submission to end it as Marquez will have a big advantage on the ground.
Pick: Julian Marquez by Submission RD 2
Women's Flyweight Bout
#8 Viviane "Vivi" Araujo vs #9 Amanda Ribas - Both of these fighters are 1-2 over their last three with a win sandwiched between 2 losses. They both need to rebound here if they want to stay relevant at the top of the division. Araujo is coming off a decision loss to Alexa Grasso, who is going to be competing for the title next, and her other loss in that span was to former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian, so she's really only losing to the very top tier of the division. Her win splitting those losses was a decision victory over Andrea Lee. Ribas is coming off a loss to Katlyn Chookagian, has a win over Virna Jandiroba splitting the other loss which was a TKO loss to Marina Rodriguez.
Araujo is the former Strawweight Queen of Pancrase, she's a black belt in Luta Livre, a black belt in BJJ, and has some serious power for this division. She's finished 7 of her 11 pro wins with 3 KO/TKOs and 4 submissions.
Ribas is the former Jungle Fight Strawweight champ, the former MF Strawweight champ, and she's a black belt in BJJ and in judo. She's finished 7 of her 11 pro wins with 3 KO/TKOs and 4 submissions.
These two are somewhat similar, if you look at the way they've finished fights, it's identical. Araujo is definitely the more powerful of the two while Ribas is faster and likely a bit more technical. As of writing this, I'm seeing Ribas being favored by most, but honestly I don't exactly see why. Araujo should have the edge on the feet as she throws slightly more volume, she's more accurate and she hits harder. The wrestling edge likely goes to Araujo as well, as she is especially good at defending takedowns, which means Ribas is going to have a tough time getting her grappling going. It wouldn't shock me to see this one go either way, I was even favoring Ribas in this fight at first glance, but the more I break it down, I see this fight being harder for her than most are expecting it to be. The power and takedown defense of Araujo are what I see as the x-factors as it should allow her to win the exchanges on the feet and dictate positioning.
Pick: Viviane Araujo by Decision
Middleweight Bout
#5 Derek Brunson vs #10 Dricus "Stillknocks" Du Plessis - This is a big fight for both of these top ranked Middleweights but for very different reasons. For Brunson, he just saw his winning streak snapped as he got knocked out by Jared Cannonier in his last outing. He looked bad in that fight as he never really got anything going for himself and at 39 years old, a loss to Du Plessis will drop him out of the top 5 and the likelihood of him ever getting back there is slim to none. For Du Plessis, a win over Brunson, especially after his win over Till, would put him square in the title picture and he could be looking for a number one contender fight.
Brunson was an NCAA division II wrestler, he's a black belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie, and he has one shot knockout power in his strikes. He's finished 16 of his 23 pro wins with 12 KO/TKOs and 4 submissions.
Du Plessis is a 2nd degree black belt in kickboxing, is a former WAKO world champion in K-1 style kickboxing, he's the former EFC Welterweight and Middleweight champ, and the former KSW Welterweight champ. He's finished 17 of his 18 pro wins with 7 KO/TKOs and 10 submissions.
If Brunson commits to wrestling in this fight then he might have a chance of winning, but I think we are seeing father time catch up to him. Brunson is 39 years old, and he looked bad in his last fight against Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis's takedown defense is definitely something that worries me picking him here, as he's only defended 50% of his opponent's attempts in the octagon and he hasn't really fought any great wrestlers. That being said, he's undefeated in the UFC and always seems to find a way back to his feet and get his game going. Brunson might have some moments early if he fights smart, but I expect Du Plessis to be too much for him and once he starts landing some shots, the fight should be over shortly after.
Pick: Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO RD 2
Bantamweight Bout
#UR Cody "No Love" Garbrandt vs #43 Trevin "5 Star" Jones - This is an extremely important fight for both of these Bantamweights. For Garbrandt, he's the former champ, but he's 1-4 in his last 5 fights, and he's been knocked out in three of those losses. He's coming off back-to-back losses and another here might be the nail in the coffin for his fighting career. For Jones, he saw the biggest win of his career, a knockout over Timur Valiev in his UFC debut, overturned to a no contest due to a failed drug test for marijuana. After that he bounced back with a knockout over Mario Bautista and it seemed like he could be a real factor in this division. Since then though, he's lost 3 straight fights, getting submitted by Saidyokub Kakhramonov and then dropping decisions to Javid Basharat and Raoni Barcelos. If he loses here, he'll likely be cut from the promotion.
Garbrandt is an NCAA Division II wrestler, he's got very slick boxing with brutal one punch knockout power, he's the former UFC Bantamweight champ, and he has one of the best teams in the world behind him at Team Alpha Male. He's finished 10 of his 12 pro wins all by KO/TKO.
Jones is a black belt in BJJ and he's the former PXC Bantamweight champ. He's finished 7 of his 13 pro wins with 3 KO/TKOs and 4 submissions.
This is really a toss-up because we don't know how much Garbrandt has left in the tank at this point. His chin looks to be gone so all Jones needs to do is land a clean shot and he could be scoring the biggest win of his career. That being said, Garbrandt is the better striker and has more power so he should be able to win the exchanges on the feet. He's also the better wrestler so he should be able to dictate position and stay out of trouble in the grappling exchanges. Jones has never been stopped by strikes either, so that complicates this pick even more. This fight really is going to go one of two ways. Either Garbrandt looks good, dominates large portions of the fight and possibly even scores the knockout, or Jones tags him and puts him to sleep. At this point, Jones doesn't look that good, and his wins over Valiev and Bautista almost look like flukes, but the fact he was able to catch them and put them away with strikes is a bad sign. Garbrandt is overall the better fighter, but his chin doesn't look like it has anything left and he'll have to essentially make it through three rounds without getting hit to win this fight. I'll say Jones can at least land one good shot and that will be all he needs.
Pick: Trevin Jones by KO/TKO RD 1
Cancelled Bouts
Lightweight Bout
Jalin "The Tarantula" Turner vs Dan "The Hangman" Hooker - CANCELLED - This is a big fight for both of these Lightweights as well as for the entire division. Hooker just rebounded with a much-needed win over Claudio Puelles to keep his place among the top 15. On the other side, Turner is currently on a five-fight winning streak, all of which have been finishes, the latest of which was a first-round knockout over Brad Riddell that earned him a place among the top 15 as well.
Turner is a brown belt in BJJ, he's a huge Lightweight at 6'3", and he has one punch knockout power. He's finished all 13 of his pro wins with 9 KO/TKOs and 4 submissions.
Hooker is a purple belt in BJJ, he picked up multiple kickboxing titles as well as two regional MMA titles in Australia and New Zealand. He's finished 18 of his 22 pro wins with 11 KO/TKOs and 7 submissions.
I see Turner being a pretty big favorite here and that's somewhat surprising to me. Yes, Turner's recent fights have been much better than Hooker's, but the level of competition hasn't been the same. Turner's last 5 wins are over Joshua Culibao who's a Featherweight, Brok Weaver who's been cut and who's only UFC win was by disqualification, Uros Medic who had less than half the amount of fights of Turner, Jamie Mullarkey who's 3-3 in the UFC, and Brad Riddell who's 5'7" and who went on to lose another fight and potentially retire. On the other side, Hooker doesn't really have a significant win since February of 2020 and that was against Paul Felder and it was a bit of a robbery. I see this fight going one of two ways, either Turner gets Hooker out of there early, or the longer the fight goes the more Hooker starts to take over and wins late or by decision. Hooker is a bit of a slow starter and Turner is not, I'll give the slight edge to Turner but this really could go either way.
Pick: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO RD 1 UPDATE: CANCELLED
Lightweight Bout
Kamuela "The Jawaiian" Kirk vs Esteban "El Gringo" Ribovics - CANCELLED - Kirk is currently 1-1 in the UFC as he defeated Makwan Amirkhani by decision in his debut, before getting submitted by Damon Jackson in his sophomore outing. He will welcome recent Contender Series contract winner Ribovics to the octagon. Ribovics is a guy I had my eye on for a while so I was glad to see him get the opportunity on the Contender Series. He passed with flying colors by knocking his opponent out just 1:30 into the opening round to secure his UFC contract. He puts his undefeated record on the line as he makes his debut.
Kirk is a black belt in BJJ and a 2-time IBJJF world champion. Despite being a dangerous grappler, he's also dangerous on the feet as he's finished 11 of his 12 pro wins with 5 KO/TKOs and 6 submissions.
Ribovics is the former SFH Lightweight champ and the former FFC Interim Lightweight champ. He's finished all 11 of his pro wins with 6 KO/TKOs and 5 submissions.
Both fighters are finishers, so I don't expect this one to need the judges' decision. Kirk might be the better grappler and I worry that Ribovics will be a little too willing to engage him on the ground and end up getting caught. Ribovics is the better striker though, and he should be able to catch Kirk before that becomes a worry.
Pick: Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO RD 1 UPDATE: CANCELLED
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