To most fans, this week's UFC card may seem like standard fair and wouldn't capture their attention. However, for hardcore fans, it has a few things worth keeping an eye on. The main event between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann features a pair of well-rounded finishers who have a propensity for exciting fights, and the winner will likely get a top five opponent next. The co-main event between Andre Muniz and former LFA Middleweight champion Brendan Allen is a quality fight between skilled grapplers. Most intriguing of all is the long-awaited return of Ultimate Fighter 23 Strawweight winner Tatiana Suarez, who is fighting for the first time since mid-2019 due to injuries. She's fighting up a weight class this time and, if she does well. it could kickstart her run back towards title contention. The rest of the card is fine for an APEX card, including some veterans, and the start time is a positive point as well. The card won't command much attention, but at least there's more things worth paying attention to than last week's card.
Preliminary Card (4/3c, ESPN+)
Rafael Alves (20-11) vs. Narulo Aliev (8-0)
A debuting decision machine, against an entertaining and experienced fighter who's had some terrible luck making his fights. Alves is definitely the lesser of two evils here. Prediction: Alves via decision or late tko.
Carl Deaton III (17-5, 2 NC) vs. Joe Solecki (12-3)
Deaton is a can crusher with one good win and one quality win. Solecki is a proven vet with a 4-1 UFC record. If Solecki hadn't gone the distance in four of his last five fights, this would be clear promotional malpractice. Prediction: Solecki via decision.
Ode Osbourne (11-5, 1 NC) vs. Charles Johnson (13-3)
This fight was supposed to be between Osbourne and Denys Bodnar, but Bodnar bowed out and Johnson stepped in on short notice. Osbourne's a wildly entertaining fighter who has had ten of his last 11 fights end in the first round, including five of his six UFC bouts. He's 3-3 inside the octagon, but none of his wins stand out. Johnson is a former LFA Flyweight champion, has won two straight inside the octagon and has a well-rounded skillset like Osbourne. Osbourne can win this if he gets off to a strong start, but I think Johnson will survive the early onslaught and win a decision. Prediction: Johnson via decision.
Jordan Leavitt (10-2) vs. Victor Martinez (13-4)
I still don't know if Jordan Leavitt is good or not. He won his UFC debut in emphatic fashion over Matt Wiman, but Wiman hadn't won a fight in over six years at the time of their matchup. In fact, none of his three UFC wins have aged well. He's also coming off a loss to Paddy Pimblett, making this a fight that he needs to win. Martinez is a quality striker with a decent resume, but Leavitt might be too much to handle for his UFC debut. Prediction: Leavitt via decision or late submission.
Jasmine Jasudavicius (7-2) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (8-1)
The first of two women's bouts of the evening features former LFA Women's Flyweight champion Gabriella Fernandes, as she makes her UFC debut against Jasmine Jasudavicius. Jasmine's a decision machine with a good top grappling game, but she seems lost when people don't try to grapple with her. Even if Fernandes does grapple in this fight, I think the newcomer will get the job done. It's hard to have faith in someone who's making their UFC debut and doesn't have the best list of opponents on their resume, but maybe that speaks more about how little I believe in Jasmine at the moment. Prediction: Fernandes via decision.
Erick Gonzalez (14-7) vs. Trevor Peek (7-0, 1 NC)
The reason why this is the headlining prelim bout is because the UFC wants to believe in Trevor Peek. He's unbeaten with every win being a knockout, all but one of them coming in the opening round. Only one of those wins stands out on paper, but he's facing an opponent who is 0-2 in the UFC. I usually bet against the UFC's hopes in instances like this, but I think they'll get what they want this time. Prediction: Peek via tko, round 1.
Main Card (7/6c, ESPN+)
Yohan Lainesse (9-1) vs. Mike Malott (8-1-1)
Opening up the main card are entertaining finishers Yohan Lainesse and Mike Malott. Lainesse's UFC career has been nothing special this far, but the former CFFC Welterweight has finished six of his nine wins due to strikes. Malott is a balanced fighter, but nine of his ten fights have ended in the first round. His only loss came against Hakeem Dawudu in late 2014, but he's -0-1 since then. His activity level hasn't been great, but he has stepped it up in the past year. Regardless, this is a fight that he should probably win. Prediction: Malott via submission, round 2.
Tatiana Suarez (8-0) vs. Montana De La Rosa (12-7-1)
In June 2019, Tatiana Suarez defeated Nina Ansaroff to continue her undefeated career. She was primed for a potential Strawweight title shot and was, at most, one win away from getting it. Unfortunately, due to injuries and complications with them, she's been on the shelf ever since. Now, after 43 months on the shelf, she's set to return. Due to spending so much time away, she's returning at a higher weight class. De La Rosa a good test for her, as she's a quality grappler with eight submission wins to her credit. She began her UFC career with three straight wins, but has been erratic over the last four years. Suarez's grappling is on a completely different level though, and while ring rust might be a factor, this is a fight that Suarez needs to win if she wants to be a contender anytime soon, in any division. Prediction: Suarez via submission, round 2.
Augusto Sakai (15-5, 1 NC) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (9-4, 1 NC)
I don't care if Mayes has won two of his last three. If Sakai loses this fight, he's 100% getting cut. Prediction: Sakai via tko, round 3.
(11) Andre Muniz (23-4) vs. Brendan Allen (20-5)
In the co-main event, the surging Andre Muniz will look to keep his momentum rolling against Brendan Allen. A third degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Muniz has won nine straight fights and is 5-0 inside the octagon. He notoriously submitted the legendary Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza in the latter's retirement bout nearly two years ago, and he's won two more fights since then. This is an interesting fight for him, as he deserves a ranked opponent, while Allen is just outside of the rankings. Allen's a tough grappler on his own right, but Muniz is a class above. I think Allen will manage to take this the full 15 minutes, but Muniz will likely come out on top in the end. Prediction: Muniz via decision.
(6) Nikita Krylov (29-9) vs. (8) Ryan Spann (21-7)
In the main event of the evening, primed Light Heavyweight finishers Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann will look to earn a fight against a top five opponent with a win. Krylov may have gone the distance in four of his last six fights, but he had a 100% finishing rate over his first 32 fights. That's why he gets the benefit of the doubt, and still gets viewed as a primed finisher. I've always liked Krylov, but I do think his ranking is way too high. He's won two in a row, and the wins were aginst former title challengers Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir, but Oezdemir has one win sine 2019 and Gus hasn't won a fight since May 2017. He's skilled, and he's a lot more patient than he used to be, but he might be over-ranked at the moment.
Spann, however, is ranked where he should be. The former LFA Light Heavyweight champion is 7-2 inside the octagon, is coming off a quick win over former title challenger Dominick Reyes and has become much more reliable in the striking department than he used to be. He's had five straight fights end in the first round, and while I see it ending here, I wouldn't be shocked if that streak continues. This should be an interesting fight for however long it lasts, and I'll pick Spann to win it in the end. Prediction: Spann via tko, round 3.
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