There was a time when this week's UFC card was looking like a special one. The main event between crisp boxer Calvin Kattar and the surging Arnold Allen, co-main event between unbeaten finisher Ilia Topuria and longtime fan favorite Edson Barboza and featured bout between unbeaten silver olympian Mark Madsen and Drakkar Klose made for a really good trio of fights at the top of the card. The other two main card bouts would've been a potentially fun scrap between Tim Means and Max Griffin and a good light heavyweight matchup between Dustin Jacoby and Khalil Rountree, along with a prelim slate consisting of some notable names. For an ESPN+ card with a good start time, it was hard to ask for more.
Sadly, the card looked too good to be true and injuries took away the co-main and featured bouts. The Welterweight bout between Tim Means and Max Griffin was moved from early in the main card to the co-main slot, and while card is still solid on paper with a great headliner, it's not a must-see caliber offering like it once was. Still, the main event is intact, and other than the two big main card bouts that got scrapped, the rest of the card is predominantly intact. The start time is still great, and the whole thing is still on ESPN+. It'd be a shame if this was a televised card, but for an online offering, it still looks decent enough to check out for the most part.
Preliminary Card (4/3c, ESPN+)
Christian Rodriguez (7-1) vs. Joshua Weems (10-2)
This fights was supposed to be between Rodriguez and Garrett Armsfield, but Armsfield had to bow out on fight week and Joshua Weems stepped in on a few days notice. Weems is a submission specialist with a better resume than many UFC debutants these days, and even if it's short notice, he's worthy of a shot. Rodriguez isn't exactly a world-beater, and his resume is decent at best, so an upset isn't exactly out of question. Hell, why not pick it. Prediction: Weems via submission, round 3.
Carlos Mota (8-1) vs. Cody Durden (13-4-1)
Next up is LFA Flyweight champion Carlos Mota's UFC debut against Cody Durden. Almost all of his fights have been under the LFA or Shooto Brazil banner, giving him more credence than the majority of UFC newcomers. Durden's a fairly entertaining fighter who's gone 2-2-1 in the UFC so far, but I think Mota can and ultimately will beat him. Prediction: Mota via decision.
Steve Garcia (12-5) vs. Chase Hooper (11-2)
It's hard to believe that Chase Hooper's been in the UFC for almost three years, but it's true. The young, lanky Featherweight is 3-2 inside the octagon, has never been finished and his fighting style is more diverse than ever before. In Garcia, he faces a former Bellator mainstay who has gone 1-2 in the UFC thus far, with his lone win coming against Charlie Ontiveros. This is potentially a must-win for Garcia and while I don't want him to lose his job, I think Hooper's got the edge over him and will come away with the win. Prediction: Hooper via decision.
Joseph Holmes (8-2) vs. Jun Yong Park (14-5)
While Joseph Holmes is a fun fighter with an awesome nickname, the fact that he's facing Jun Yong Park makes it hard to get excited for this matchup. That's because Park is 4-2 in the UFC, but his last finish was in 2018, before he signed with the company. Holmes has finished all of his wins, but his lone UFC win was against the since-released Alan Amedovski, and he's got a loss to Jamie Pickett on his resume. Park has been finished a few times in his career, but I think he'll wind up winning a decision that will send Holmes into a do-or-die situation for his next fight. Prediction: Park via decision.
Andrei Arlovski (34-20, 2 NC) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-8-1)
Every time Andrei Arlovski fights, I find myself feeling happy for him. There was a time where it felt like his chin was completely gone and his career was at its final stages. However, he's managed to completely change his fighting style, going 6-1 in his last seven bouts despite turning 44 in a few months. His new style may not be very entertaining, but there's something charming about a former champion who's been at it for over two decades, that is still able to adapt and find ways to win, knowing that one flush shot could end his night. De Lima's got power, as shown by his 14 knockout wins, but he's only had two since January 2017. He's 4-3 since moving up to Heavyweight so it's not like he's a contender or anything. This is a decent enough fight with name recognition, and while de Lima could end the fight violently, I'm rooting for Arlovski to win and keep his streak intact. Prediction: Arlovski via decision.
Phil Hawes (12-3) vs. Roman Dolidze (10-1)
This fight will either be pretty fun or dispiriting and boring. Hawes and Dolidze both have power and tend to finish their fights, but both have also had spells of boring decisions in their UFC careers. This is essentially a coin flip of a fight, and one where you just have to hope both will show up and not be gun-shy. Prediction: Hawes via decision.
Main Card (7/6c, ESPN+)
Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-5, 1 NC) vs. (13) Dustin Jacoby (18-5-1)
In January 2015, Dustin Jacoby got submitted by John Salter in Bellator, giving him two losses in a row. That led to him going into kickboxing for over four years, before he returned to MMA in June 2019. A year later, he got a shot in the Contender Series, won his fight there and got a chance to join the UFC. He's since gone 6-0-1 inside the octagon and, while most of those fights have gone the distance, the difference between his pre-kickboxing and post-kickboxing days is alarming. He's earned a ranking next to his name and if he beats Khalil Rountree Jr, it would give him a chance to potentially get a top ten opponent before long.
While Rountree is a striker too, his striking isn't as crisp as Jacoby's. His kicks have become a key weapon over his last few wins, but he's never won more than two in a row since coming to the UFC. He might have what it takes to make this fight interesting, but I can't see him beating Jacoby in this one. Prediction: Jacoby via decision.
Josh Fremd (9-3) vs. Tresean Gore (3-2)
Next up is a matchup between former LFA Middleweight title challenger Josh Fremd and former Ultimate Fighter finalist Tresean Gore. Gore looked good in his TUF bouts, but he's lost both of his UFC fights and has just three pro wins to his name. Both need a win but Gore needs it more. Fremd at least has a UFC-caliber resume though, which Gore clearly doesn't. Gore has potential, but he should probably go to the LFA or some other Fight Pass-contracted regional promotion if he loses this fight. Prediction: Fremd via decision.
Jared Vanderaa (12-9) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (7-0)
A matchup between unranked Heavyweights? Either this will be a fun or short slugfest, or it will be a slog that will test the mercy of the MMA gods. There's little room for anything in between. Either way, this fight has no business being on the main card. Prediction: Cortes-Acosta via tko, round 2.
Tim Means (32-13-1, 1 NC) vs. Max Griffin (18-9)
In the new co-main event, which was supposed to be an earlier bout on the main card, longtime fan favorite Tim Means and often-exciting Max Griffin will both look to win for the fourth time in five fights. Means' current UFC run has gone on for over eight years, amassing 21 bouts in the process. He's gone 12-8 with a no contest in that span and while his killer instinct isn't what it once was, he's still got enough in the tank to put forth quality fights against decent competition. Griffin's been more topsy-turvy, going 6-7 inside the octagon, but he also tends to be in enjoyable fights. He's gone the distance in nine of his last 11 fights, but the man rarely has a fight that isn't at least somewhat entertaining. If nothing else, this should be a fairly enjoyable matchup with a bit of a throwback vibe. I want to pick Means, but Griffin's the favorite for a reason. Prediction: Griffin via decision.
(5) Calvin Kattar (23-6) vs. (6) Arnold Allen (18-1)
In the main event of the evening, Calvin Kattar will look to rebound from a razor-thin loss against Josh Emmett by taking on the surging Arnold Allen. Many believe Kattar did enough to win that fight and by pitting him against Allen, the UFC is giving him a lateral bout that gives him a chance to cement contender status once again. One of the best boxers in the UFC today, Kattar's standup is crisp, while his cardio and chin allow him to go into deep waters whenever needed.
Speaking of deep waters, Arnold Allen had gone the distance in six of his last seven fights, before finishing Dan Hooker in the first round of his most recent fight. The result extended his winning streak to 11 in a row, giving him a UFC record of 9-0. He's been in the UFC since 2014, but has only fought once per year in seven of the eight years since joining the promotion, with the lone exception being 2019. If he was more active, he'd probably have earned a title shot by now. Instead, nobody's sure if he's even elite at this point. A win over Kattar would prove to everyone that he is, which is why this feels like a must-win for him as well.
The odds are extremely close for a reason, but I'm still inclined to lean towards Kattar. He's proven he can go five rounds and win. Allen's got really good cardio and a well-rounded skillset, but nobody knows how he'll fare against someone with Kattar's level of boxing for 25 minutes. Until I see him get the job done, I don't have faith in him to do so. It's a close call, but I'm going with Kattar. Prediction: Kattar via decision.
No comments:
Post a Comment