UFC 277 is a card that, despite having only one true title fight on it, having eight postponements/cancellations on it and losing two of its four most intriguing fights, still has a quality main card. The problem is that needed a big title fight to round things out. It lacks that, which is why it's not getting the attention it would otherwise receive.
The main event is an immediate rematch for the Women's Bantamweight title, where the first encounter was Amanda Nunes' worst fight in nearly a decade, and Peña's striking was awful, minus her jab, in a fight she wound up winning. There's intrigue surrounding whether Nunes will take care of business this time, but it's not a fight that screams must-see PPV main event. The co-main event is an Interim Flyweight title bout between former champion Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France, in a fight that's sure to thrill. It's basically a title eliminator, and it's fine for a throwaway PPV co-main event, even though that phrase comes across as an oxymoron.
The televised prelims have some decent matchups despite some key fights being altered, and the early prelims are what they are. Underwhelming cards have a knack for exceeding expectations, and this card has the potential to do that. The only way to find out is to wait and see what happens on Saturday night.
Early Prelims (6/5c, ESPN+)
Mike Mathetha (3-1) vs. Orion Cosce (7-1)
A former Contender Series guy against an inexperienced fighter who's only in the UFC because of his connection to Israel Adesanya. If Cosce can't win this fight, he shouldn't be in the UFC anymore. Prediction: Cosce via tko, round 2.
Nicolae Negumereanu (12-1) vs. Ihor Poteria (20-2)
On a prelim slate that's been ravaged with alterations and cancellations, this fight is a sneaky intersting one. Negumereanu's fights haven't been easy to watch lately, he's no slouch either. He has a good record, has finished 10 of his 12 wins and has won three straight inside the octagon. The fact that Poteira's facing him in his UFC debut is a great way to show how highly the UFC views the newcomer. Poteira's got a great record, a well-rounded skillset and a 16-fight winning streak entering this fight. The problem is that his fights have mostly been against complete cans. There've been countless fighters with glammed up resumes who flame out in the UFC, and Poteria may or may not wind up being the next one. I want him to be good, and I want this fight to be good, but I'm weary about picking a newcomer with so many cans in a resume. I'm reluctant about it, but I have to pick Negumereanu for that reason. Prediction: Negumereanu via decision.
Ji Yeon Kim (9-5-2) vs. Joselyne Edwards (11-4)
Edwards has become a decision machine since entering the UFC, while Kim has lost four of her last five fights. The reason why Kim is still in the UFC is because she was on the wrong end of a really bad decision in her last fight. If she loses this time, she's likely done. I'd love to see her come through, but I think Edwards is a bit better than her and will take care of business. It sucks to pick against her, and I'll always be happy about how she handled Nadia Kassem's antics some years back, but I think this fight will be Kim's last fight in the UFC. Prediction: Edwards via decision.
Michael Morales (13-0) vs. Adam Fugitt (8-2)
Morales knocked Trevin Giles out in his UFC debut, and did it in the opening round to boot. Fugitt has fought once since 2019 and is making his UFC debut. I thought about adding more to this fight preview, then decided to Fugitt about it. I'm sorry. Prediction: Morales via TKO, round 2.
Televised Prelims (8/7c, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
Drakkar Klose (12-2) vs. Rafa Garcia (14-2)
There's a lot of under-marketed fighters in the UFC, and Klose is amongst the many on that list. He's 6-2-1 inside the octagon, his only loss since 2017 was against the highly-rated Beneil Dariush and he's coming off a finished victory earlier this year. The problem is that he used to be a decision machine, and he was robbed of a chance to get a win over Jeremy Stephens last year, because the fight got scrapped due to Stephens shoving and injuring Klose at the weigh-ins for the fight. Regardless, this is his chance to get a win on tv. He was supposed to face Carlos Diego Ferreira, but an injury to the latter led to Rafa Garcia stepping in on short notice. Garcia's a good grappler and has won two in a row, but he's never faced anyone of Klose's caliber. He's a fine option for a short notice opponent, but this is a fight that Klose should definitely win. Prediction: Klose via decision.
Hamdy Abdelwahab (3-0) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (9-4)
I've watched ten of Mayes' 13 pro fights, and I still don't know if he's any good. That's despite the fact that he's 2-2 in the UFC. If not for those two wins inside the octagon, the answer would be an absolute no. The reality is, however, that he has won two in a row in the UFC. Now he faces a debutant with three pro bouts to his name. Hamdy has power, but no experience against anyone of note. There's no question what the UFC is hoping for, so just to be a contrarian. I'll pick Mayes. Prediction: Mayes via decision.
Rafael Alves (20-10) vs. Drew Dober (24-11, 1 NC)
Every televised prelim card needs at least one fight that's guaranteed to be fun, and that's exactly the type of fight that Drew Dober consistently delivers. Dober may have lost two of his last three bouts, but nine of his last 12 fights ended with a finish. Of the three that didn't two of them went on to become Fight of the Night for the cards they took place on. He's the exact kind of fighter that the UFC, or any promotion for that matter, would love to have on any card.
Alves' UFC resume pales in comparison to Dober's, but his fights tend to deliver in the same manner. He's got an 80% finishing rate over his 30-fight career, many of which have ended on the ground. Dober's not a submission threat, but he is capable in that department. Alves has eight submission wins, but also has six submission losses. This fight will likely stay on the feet, and Dober is likely to come away with the win once all is said and done. Prediction: Dober via tko, round 3.
Alex Morono (21-7, 1 NC) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (10-3)
In the headlining prelim bout, Houston-born Alex Morono will fight in Dallas against Matthew Semelsberger. Morono is a second-degree Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, also has a black belt in Taekwondo, possesses a 10-4 UFC record with one no contest mixed in and has won three fights in a row. Semelsberger has good striking and decent grappling, along with a 4-1 record. However, his resume pales in comparison to Morono's, and I just can't understand why he's the favorite in this fight. If I were a betting man, I'd put a good amount of money on Morono to take care of business. Prediction: Morono via decision.
Main Card (10/9c, PPV)
(5) Anthony Smith (36-16) vs. (4) Magomed Ankaleev (17-1)
A top five Light Heavyweight matchup, featuring a guy with eight straight UFC wins against an action fighter who has had 47 of 52 fights end with a finish? What's not to like? Well, the problem is that each of Ankaleev's last three fights were lackluster, and it's entirely plausible that he will ragdoll Smith for three rounds. I'd love to see Smith win and get back to contender status, but I highly doubt it'll happen. Having this fight open the PPV feels like a mistake, since PPV openers are supposed to be fun and not depressing, which this fight could wind up being. Prediction: Ankaleev via decision.
(4) Alexandre Pantoja (24-5) vs. (6) Alex Perez (24-6)
Flyweight fights consistently deliver these days, and this fight will likely follow that route. Perez is 6-2 in the UFC, with his only losses coming against Joseph Benavidez and then/current champion Deiveson Figueiredo. In other words, he only loses to elite guys. Pantoja's in a similar boat, and if he wins this fight, he could be one fight away from a title shot. Perez is tough, but Pantoja's had success in these type of fights. I think he'll get the job done once again. Prediction: Pantoja via decision.
(5) Derrick Lewis (26-9, 1 NC) vs. (11) Sergey Pavlovich (15-1)
Two strikers, one of whom is Derrick Lewis, in the state that's like a second home for him. Even though he's been finished due to strikes on six different occasions, and has looked lost in two of his last three fights, I still trust him more than I trust Pavlovich against him. Pavolovich is good, but he's never fought someone with the power of Lewis. He's also fought just once in the last three years. It's not easy being confident in Lewis, but I think he will win this fight. Prediction: Lewis via tko, round 3.
Interim Flyweight Championship: (1) Brandon Moreno (19-6, 2 NC) vs. (2) Kai Kara-France (24-9, 1 NC)
In January, then-Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno lost a controversial decision against Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueirdo's on the shelf until the end of the year, and the UFC needed to add something relative to a title fight on this card, so they decided to create an interim title matchup between Moreno and second-ranked contender Kai Kara-France. It's basically a glowed-up title eliminator, and should be a very interesting styles matchup.
Moreno's striking is no joke, but his bread and butter is his grappling. He's 13-3-2 over the last 10 years, and his only losses in that span were against opponents who are or turned out to be elite. Kara-France is an okay grappler, but he's predominantly a striker. He's 7-2 inside the octagon and 4-1 since losing a decision to Moreno in late 2019. Kara-France has improved since that first fight, but so has Moreno. An upset is definitely possible, but I still think that Moreno and Figueiredo will have a fourth fight to settle their rivalry at the end of the year. Prediction: Moreno via decision.
UFC Women's Championship: (C) Juliana Peña (11-4) vs. (1) Amanda Nunes (21-5)
I still can't believe Nunes lost to Juliana Peña. After looking great for the better part of eight years and being viewed as arguably the best female fighter in MMA history, she fought extremely dumb in their first encounter. Peña's striking looked horrible in the first fight, other than her jab, and Nunes just kept eating those shots. Nunes is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, yet she got submitted in that fight. Upsets are usually great, but that fight set women's MMA back by years. The fact that their rematch is headlining a PPV is kind of sad.
At the end of the day, this fight comes down to where Nunes' head is at. It should be noted that she had recently recovered from the coronavirus before their first fight, which may or may not have had a big impact on the first fight. Regardless, if she doesn't fight stupidly, I still think she'll not only win, but make it look easy. Maybe that's just wishful thinking, but it's hard for me to consider the idea that Peña will win again, even if the reality is that it is entirely possible. Prediction: Nunes via tko, round 3.
No comments:
Post a Comment