Preliminary Card
Bantamweight Bout
#39 Louis Smolka vs #56 Vince Morales - If you take a look at their records, 17-7 for Smolka to 10-5 for Moales, or at their rankings, it's easy to see why Smolka is the favorite. Morales is a fun fighter to watch and can turn this into a brawl, and Smolka sometimes makes very questionable decisions so this is far from a lock but I tend to agree with the majority of Tapology voters on this one. 87% are picking Smolka with 71% of those picking him to win by decision. A submission win for Smolka wouldn't be shocking but I'm going to say decision as well.
Pick: Louis Smolka by Decision

Welterweight Bout
#25 Alex "The Great White" Morono vs #53 Mickey Gall - I'm a big fan of Mickey Gall and he's shown he is constantly improving but this doesn't look like a great match-up for him. As you can tell by the large gap in my rankings for each of these fighters, Gall is still developing and is a solid prospect whereas Morono is up at #25 making him more of a contender in the mix. If Gall can pull off the upset that would be huge, but Morono is the better striker, he hits harder, he's durable and he's never been submitted as he has decent grappling skills of his own. Gall is tough too and is going to keep trying to end this fight but Morono should be able to stay ahead and win the rounds.
Pick: Alex Morono by Decision

Light Heavyweight Bout
#UR Philipe "Monstro" Lins vs #UR Azamat "The Professional" Murzakanov ***UPDATE*** CANCELLED- Both of these fighters lost their original opponents and now end up scheduled against one another here. This is a huge fight for both of them but for opposite reasons. Lins made a name for himself fighting in Bellator and PFL before coming to the UFC and with notable wins over Alex Nicholson, Jared Rosholt, Caio Alencar and Josh Copeland, I was excited about his potential. They threw Lins to the wolves at Heavyweight though as he debuted against former champ Andrei Arlovski and then faced Tanner Boser and came out on the losing side of both bouts. Now Lins is dropping a weight class and needs a win or he could end up getting cut from the promotion. Murzakanov on the other hand should have debuted in the UFC a while back but got delayed and ended up having to earn his way on the Contender Series. He scored an impressive knock out to finally punch his ticket and if he can score a win over a fighter like Lins in his debut, he could be a new contender in the shallow division. At this point it's hard to pick Lins as he's coming off back to back losses and we don't know how he will perform at Light Heavyweight. All the momentum is on Murzakanov's side, he's a -230 betting favorite and 90% of the picks on Tapology have him winning, with 82% of those picking him to win by KO/TKO. I'm onboard the Murzakanov hype train, let's roll with it.
Pick: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO RD 1 UPDATE: CANCELLED
Heavyweight Bout
#UR Azamat "The Professional" Murzakanov vs #32 Jared "The Mountain" Vanderaa - I don't like this fight at all. Philipe Lins had to withdraw and now instead of Murzakanov debuting at Light Heavyweight where he should be, he is stepping up a weight class for a short notice fight against Vanderaa. It wouldn't shock me if Murzakanov has his debut spoiled now as Heavyweights hit hard and can take a shot but I'll stick with him.
Pick: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO RD 1

Lightweight Bout
#61 Claudio "El Nino" Puelles vs #53 Chris "Gritz" Gruetzemacher - While Puelles is 3-1 in the UFC and on a 3 fight winning streak while Gruetzemacher is 3-3 in the UFC, I'm still favoring "Gritz". Puelles I feel is a low end Lightweight and doesn't belong in the UFC whereas I see some potential in Gritz to at least be a mid-level gatekeeper. Gritz showed in his last fight some solid boxing skills and he can always fall back on his wrestling as well. Puelles has finished half of his pro wins by submission and 3 out of 4 of Gruetzemacher's losses have been by submission so there's a path for him to pull off this upset, especially as he is 10 years younger than Gruetzemacher. I'm still favoring Gritz though as he should be able to beat Puelles up on the feet and uses his superior wrestling to control positioning and stay out of danger.
Pick: Chris Gruetzemacher by Decision

Light Heavyweight Bout
#20 "Atomic" Alonzo Menifield vs #29 William "Knightmare" Knight - This is a great fight and a terrible fight at the same time. Both of these fighters are scary knockout artists and rising prospects in the shallow division so while this is going to be entertaining, and one of them is likely getting knocked out, it also sucks to see one of them have to take a loss right now. That's the name of the game though and Menifield is faster, has the reach advantage and should be able to get this done in one.
Pick: Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO RD 1

Women's Strawweight Bout
#32 Mallory Martin vs #30 Cheyanne "The Warrior Princess" Vlismas - Vlismas is coming in on short notice for Montserrat Ruiz and will take on Mallory Martin. I'm not sure what to really make of either of these fighters at this point but if one thing is clear, it's that Vlismas currently has more potential. That alone makes me favor her in this one.
Pick: Cheyanne Vlismas by Decision

Flyweight Bout
#17 Zhalgas "Zhako" Zhumagulov vs #16 Manel "Starboy" Kape - This is a big fight for both of these fighters and for the shallow Flyweight division. Both of these fighters joined the UFC with a ton of potential but lost back to back fights in the octagon to start. Both are coming off impressive rebound wins as Zhumagulov pulled off a standing guillotine against Jerome Rivera while Kape landed a flying knee knockout against Ode Osbourne. The winner of this fight could have an official number next to their name while the loser is going to be 1-3 in the UFC and could end up getting cut, which is unfortunate as both fighters still have a lot to offer. I could see this one going either way as Kape is a bit of an all or nothing type of fighter with 15 of his 16 pro wins being finishes and 4 of his 6 losses being by decision. Zhumagulov is better at winning rounds so if Kape isn't careful, he'll lose on the scorecards. I'm going to say he avoids all of that however by knocking out Zhumagulov and not letting the judges get involved at all.
Pick: Manel Kape by KO/TKO RD 2

Welterweight Bout
#20 Jake "The Celtic Kid" Matthews vs #48 Jeremiah Wells - Wells got an impressive win in his UFC debut over Warlley Alves but Alves is a very inconsistent fighter who was also preparing for a very different type of fighter in Ramazan Emeev before Wells stepped in on short notice. This is a very different fight, Matthews is a much more consistent and technically sound fighter than Alves. Matthews should be able to show that this is a serious step up by dominating the rounds and earning the decision win.
Pick: Jake Matthews by Decision

Middleweight Bout
#53 Maki "Coconut Bombz" Pitolo vs #51 Dusko "Thunder" Todorovic - Both of these Middleweights are in must win territory as a loss here likely means they are getting cut from the promotion. I'm surprised Pitolo is even getting another chance as he is 1-4 in the UFC already, coming off 3 straight losses. It's not like those losses were to top level talent either and they are giving him a break, in fact 2 of the losses were against fighters no longer in the UFC, another was against Impa Kasanganay who's currently 2-2 in the UFC. The last was against Julian Marquez which is a bit forgivable as Marquez is a serious prospect on the rise but still. Todorovic's losses have been a bit more excusable as he dropped fights to Punehele Soriano and Gregory Rodrigues who is undefeated in the UFC currently. Pitolo has the power to end the fight with one shot so I'd avoid betting on this but with his UFC record, I can't count on him to land that shot anymore. It's much more likely that Todorovic takes this fight to the floor and grounds and pounds his way to a TKO or decision win.
Pick: Dusko Todorovic by KO/TKO RD 2

Main Card
Welterweight Bout
#49 Bryan "Bam Bam" Barberena vs #UR Darian Weeks - Matt Brown was forced to withdraw from this fight and now Weeks steps in on short notice to make his UFC debut and take his spot. Weeks had a long amateur career before turning pro as he went 15-4 as an amateur, so while he's only 5-0 as a pro, he's more experienced than he seems. Weeks is younger, more explosive and has finished all 5 of his pro fights with 3 KO/TKOs and 2 submissions so an upset wouldn't really be shocking, the guy is dangerous. That being said, Barberena is a crafty veteran at this point, he's durable, he excels in a brawl, and he's going to keep coming after you until he's unconscious or the bell rings. I'll say Weeks has some moments early but Barberena shows his veteran status and takes over in the second and third.
Pick Bryan Barberena by Decision

Middleweight Bout
#17 Brendan "All In" Allen vs #19 Chris "The Action Man" Curtis - Allen was supposed to be facing Brad Tavares here for a shot to break into the official rankings but when Tavares had to withdraw, Roman Dolidze stepped in. I wasn't a fan of that fight but Dolidze also had to withdraw due to health issues and now Chris Curtis takes the late notice opportunity. Curtis is coming off a massive win in his UFC debut against Phil Hawes as he knocked him out in the first round. That was a huge win and an incredible story for Curtis but I don't think he pulls it off again. Allen is a bit wild as he chases the finish so there will likely be an opportunity for Curtis to get it done but Allen is the much better grappler and if he can get this fight to the floor than he should be able to lock something up to end it.
Pick: Brendan Allen by Submission RD 1

Light Heavyweight Bout
#13 Jimmy "The Brute" Crute vs Jamahal "Sweet Dreams" Hill - This is an interesting match-up and I really see it as a toss up. Whichever one of these fighters is able to get their game going first should be able to maintain that success. Crute is more accurate and better defensively on the feet but Hill has the reach advantage, is more technical and throws much more volume. Crute has the edge in the wrestling and grappling though so it seems he has more options to win this fight. Hill could end up scoring the knockout but I'm going to say that Crute is able to get the grappling going and lock something up to end it.
Pick: Jimmy Crute by Submission RD 1

Lightweight Bout
#38 Clay "The Carpenter" Guida vs #28 Leonardo Santos - 2 veteran Lightweights square off in an interesting stylistic match-up. Guida hasn't looked good as of late as he is 2-3 in his last 5 and those 2 wins are over BJ Penn and Michael Johnson. Guida did have a decent outing his last go as he took the undefeated Mark O. Madsen to a split decision but seems to be the worse off between these two at least. That being said, Santos is now 41 years old and is coming off his first loss in the octagon and the possibility of that loss starting a steep decline in his performance is very real. Assuming father time isn't about to tie an anchor around Santos, I like him in this one. The striking is a bit of a wash, as Santos has the reach and the power but Guida throws more volume. The wrestling edge likely goes to Guida but the grappling edge goes to Santos and that will likely cause Guida to at least have some hesitancy going to the ground. I still expect Guida to shoot at some point and when he does, Santos should be able to turn the tables and end the fight. Guida has lost 10 times by submission, that doesn't bode well for his chances.
Pick: Leonardo Santos by Submission RD 2

Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout
#14 Rafael "Ataman" Fiziev vs #12 Brad "Quake" Riddell - The likelihood of these fighters earning a bonus is pretty high as this looks to be a barnburner, at least on paper. Riddell has shown some wrestling and ground and pound during his UFC career but he won't be able to use that here as Fiziev has never been taken down in the octagon and I don't expect that to change here. Fiziev has more weapons on the feet, he throws more volume and is just about as accurate as Riddell. Riddell doesn't absorb as many significant strikes and is better defensively but Fiziev throwing more volume and defending the grappling attempts should edge him out the rounds.
Pick: Rafael Fiziev by Decision

Bantamweight Main Event Bout
#4 Rob Font vs #5 Jose Aldo "Junior" - This has "Fight of the Night" written all over it. Font is on a 4 fight winning streak right now and has looked really good as he beat Sergio Pettis, Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes and Cody Garbrandt. Aldo is actually coming off back to back wins as well as he just defeated Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz. Font has looked really good, he's actually the bigger fighter here too but if you look at those wins, Pettis is in Bellator, Simon is good but not top ranked, Moraes is on a steep decline and Cody Garbrandt kind of is as well and is moving down to Flyweight. Font will have his moments but I have a feeling the veteran former champ is about to teach him a couple lessons as he edges out the rounds.
Pick: Jose Aldo by Decision

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