This Saturday's UFC 265 card is unique for a variety of reasons. One of them is that, in a time where seemingly every card sees a ton of shuffling due to the ongoing pandemic and injuries, only one fight has been removed from the card. At the same time, that one fight was the only real title fight on this card, which might make one think that this is not a PPV quality card. Crazy thing is, this card is so well put together that it is still a really nice offering, even if it was never going to be considered worthy of the PPV price tag. Then again, only one or two cards a year are worthy anything close to it. Nonetheless, this is a pretty balanced card overall.
The main event between rising contender Cyril Gane and longtime fan favorite knockout artist Derrick Lewis is an "interim title fight" in the loosest sense, as actual Heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou is not injured or unable to fight. It's all about politics and money, which is a shame on the UFC's part, but that's how it goes. Still, even without the bogus interim title tag on the fight, this matchup would be an easy sell as a PPV co-main or ESPN headliner. Both the new co-main and featured bouts of the card could headline their own ESPN or ESPN cards as well, and the matchup between longtime Strawweight fixtures Tecia Torres and Angela Hill could be a decent Fight Night co-main as well. The prelims overall are a good slate with some fun mixed in, and will be available for viewing on ESPN2 and ESPN+. Again, even if it may not be a stacked card, it's still a pretty good one on paper. If it lives up to expectations, it could be quite a memorable one.
Early Prelims (6/5c, ESPN2 and ESPN+)
Johnny Muñoz Jr. (10-1) vs. Jamey Simmons (7-3)
A whopping 10 of the 13 fights on this card feature fighters that Lightweights or even lighter, including eight of the nine prelim bouts on the card. It starts with an entertaining matchup between relative newcomers Johnny Muñoz Jr. and Jamey Simmons. Munoz is predominantly a grappler, with six of his ten wins ending via submission. Six of his first seven fights were all first round finishes, and he entered the UFC as the King of the Cage Bantamweight champion. Unfortunately, KOTC isn't a big name anymore, his pre-UFC opponents were predominantly cans and he got snuffed out in his UFC debut against Nate Maness. He needs to impress in this fight, perhaps to keep his job.
In Simmons, Muñoz faces a kill or be killed type fighter who has had seven of ten fights end in the first round. That includes all three of his losses, including his short notice UFC debut. Simmons is a good opponent to test what Muñoz can do. If Muñoz doesn't bring the heat in this fight, he could lose quickly. At the same time, if Simmons can't get the best of Muñoz quickly, it could be a long fight for him. I'll pick Muñoz, but this feels like a coin flip. Prediction: Muñoz via submission, round 2.
Victoria Leonardo (8-3) vs. Melissa Gatto (6-0-2)
Melissa Gatto is making her UFC debut, despite being with the promotion for over two years. First, in May 2019, she had to bow out of a fight with Talita Bernardo due to injury. Two months later, she had to bow out of another fight due to injury as well. She also got retroactively suspended by USADA in 2019 due to testing positive for taking a diuretic. Last June, due to travel restrictions stemming from the pandemic, she had to remove herself from yet another fight. At long last, nearly three years after her last fight, the grappler gets to enter the octagon. She's facing another grappler who has a few decent wins, in Victoria Leonardo. Leonardo is a one-dimensional fighter, but that one dimension is the same one that Gatto is good at. Basically, this is a fight that could have some fun scrambles, or become an odd kickboxing matchup. I'd normally pick Gatto, but she's been on the shelf for so long that I'm not sure now. I guess I'll pick her anyway, even if it's a tough one to call. Prediction: Gatto via decision.
Miles Johns (11-1) vs. Anderson dos Santos (21-8)
On paper, Johns is the more proven fighter, can excel in deep waters and will likely win a decision. But why analyze the fight more, when his opponent is named Anderson dos Santos? I cannot justify picking against someone with a name that legendary, in this sport. Sometimes, analysis has to go out the window. This is one of those times. Prediction: dos Santos by unforgettable finish.
Ode Osbourne (9-3, 1 NC) vs. Manel Kape (15-6)
It feels so odd to see Kape so low on the card, but it's understandable. As fun and flashy as he can be, he is 0-2 in the UFC, even if there are people who believe he won not only one, but both of the decisions he's had inside the octagon. The former RIZIN star has been surprisingly gun-shy for most of the six rounds he's had in the UFC. He needs to show up and show out this time, and Ode Osbourne is the type of fighter to guarantee that happens. Osbourne has only gone the distance twice in his 13-fight career, and each of his last seven fights has ended in the first round. I don't know if that streak will continue, but he is definitely the type of fighter the UFC loves to put on their cards, and for good reason. I think Kape will beat him and wake up in this fight. If not, he needs to take a long break to re-evaluate his mentality. Prediction: Kape via tko, round 2.
Late (Televised) Prelims (8/7c, ESPN2 and ESPN+)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6) vs. Jessica Penne (13-5)
One of the surest bets on this card is that this fight will go the distance. Karolina has gone the distance in 11 of her last 13 fights, with the two exceptions being first round finishes at the hands of Jessica Aguilar and Claudia Gadelha. Even though Penne is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, her last submission win was eight years ago. Also, judging by reactions to her decision victory over Lupita Godinez last time out, she should arguably be on a four-fight losing streak, which is exactly what Karolina is on. Basically, the loser of this fight should retire, and probably the winner two. Both women have championship experience and have had good MMA careers, especially pre-UFC, but both are in the twilights of their careers. I'll pick Karolina, but only because I don't think Penne will submit her. Prediction: Kowalkiewicz via decision.
Ed Herman (26-14, 1 NC) vs. Alonzo Menifield (10-2)
The lone Light-Heavyweight bout of the evening has sneaky good bonus potential. Menifield is basically a "one-round" fighter, as all ten of his wins have come within six minutes of the opening bell. Meanwhile, his two losses were a decision against Devin Clark and a tko loss to Ovince Saint Preux in the final minute of the second round. If he wins this fight, it will be quick.
Herman has quietly been succeeding in the UFC, having won three straight fights after a four-fight losing streak. Having been a member of the roster since June 2006, he's having the best run of his career in nearly a decade. He has finished 21 of his 26 wins, 14 of them via submission and has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. In 41 pro fights, he's only been finished due to strikes twice: once in 2015 and once in 2016. He turns 41 in October, and it's fair to wonder if Father Time has caught up to him. Menifield finishing him quickly would not be shocking. However, if he escapes the early going, this is likely his fight to win. I'll pick Herman, but Menifield getting a quick win has to be monitored closely. Prediction: Herman via decision or late submission.
Vince Morales (9-5) vs. Drako Rodriguez (7-2)
Of the four "televised" prelim bouts, this is the one with least name recognition. Morales is 1-3 in the UFC and hasn't finished a win since January 2018, but he does have seven finishes to his credit and was fun to watch before coming to the UFC. His job is on the line, so maybe he'll step up for this occasion? Drako Rodriguez definitely will, as he's only gone the distance once in his career, and all but two of his fights have ended within six minutes. Screw it, I'll pick him to win and do so in emphatic fashion. Prediction: Rodriguez via tko, round 2.
Bobby Green (27-11-1) vs. Rafael Fiziev (9-1)
In the headlining prelim bout, Bobby Green will engage in his 40th professional fight when he faces rising potential contender Rafael Fiziev. Green has been with the UFC since Strikeforce ended in January 2013. He won his first four UFC bouts, before going 1-5-1 in his next seven. Some of those losses were questionable decisions, so he kept getting chances, and is 3-1 since that skid. He's coming off a decision loss to Thiago Moises, which was another close fight. He has had a whopping 12 of his last 13 fights go the distance. As for Fiziev, the Kazakh kickboxer has had quite a bit of success in MMA. Other than a quick loss in his UFC debut to Magomed Mustafaev, Fiziev has never lost. He has won three straight, and a win over a respected veteran like Green could land him a top 20 opponent. Green always keeps fights close unless he's facing a bonafide contender, which Fiziev isn't yet. I do think Fiziev will win a standup-heavy affair, but it could be closer than many experts may think. Prediction: Fiziev via decision.
Main Card (10/9c, PPV)
Yadong Song (16-5-1, 1 NC) vs. Casey Kenney (16-3-1)
This fight may not feel PPV quality, but that's because it doesn't need to be. It just needs to be entertaining, and Song's fights usually are. Song has gone the distance in four of his last five fights though, and Kenney has done the same in 12 of his last 14. Kenney is a second-degree black belt in Judo and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but has only one submission win in his last 14 fights. It's unlikely that he'd submit Song anyways, but basically, this fight will go the distance so long as Kenney's trademark striking style doesn't leave a wide opening for Song to potentially crack him and finish the fight. This is a good fight on paper, and Song has the power to finish, but it feels all too likely that this will end with a decision. All three of Kenney's losses have been decisions, two of them splits. I'll pick this to go the same way. Prediction: Song via close decision.
(10)Tecia Torres (12-5) vs. (12)Angela Hill (13-9)
Speaking of decisions, Tecia Torres has gone the distance in 15 of her 17 pro fights, with the two finishes coming against women not in her league. All of her losses came against elite opponents. Hill is not way below her league, nor is she elite. She's also gone the distance in 13 of her last 16 fights. I can't fight fate and pick against Torres getting a decision here. Prediction: Torres via decision.
Vicente Luque (20-7-1) vs. Michael Chiesa (18-4)
In the featured bout, Michael Chiesa will look to stay undefeated at Welterweight when he faces the extremely dangerous Vicente Luque. Chiesa is a great grappler, won The Ultimate Fighter a little over nine years ago and went 7-2 over his first nine Lightweight bouts in the UFC. After two straight losses, he decided to move up. Since doing so, he has looked excellent, going 4-0, while only losing two of the 13 rounds he's had in the UFC in the division. If he beats Luque, who is actually ranked below him, it will actually solidify his standing and get him a top five opponent. Granted, Chiesa hasn't faced any Welterweights that would be considered elite at this point, but Luque is a nice feather to have on his cap.
Luque is a terrific striker who can also grapple, but not at Chiesa's level. There's always a possibility that he can keep this fight standing, and maybe even stun and finish Chiesa. The only finisher that Chiesa has faced in this division is a shopworn Carlos Condit in his Welterweight debut. Luque has the power and skill to overwhelm Chiesa on the feet. The question is whether or not he can execute a gameplan of doing that, while also being able to avoid or overcome Chiesa's grappling chops. I want to believe he does, but I doubt that he will be able to pull it off. Prediction: Chiesa via decision.
Jose Aldo (29-7) vs. Pedro Munhoz (19-5, 1 NC)
In the new co-main event, legendary former UFC and WEC Featherweight champion Jose Aldo will partake in his third Bantamweight contest, as he takes on the well-rounded Pedro Munhoz. Aldo was a phenomenal striker in his prime, and still has quality striking now, even though he is 17 years into his pro career. Aldo, despite being 1-1 as a Bantamweight, is ranked fifth in the division. That is weird, and too high, but that's how much respect he earned in his Featherweight days. It's up to Munhoz to topple him from that slot.
Munhoz, like Aldo, is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. While they have the same ranking in the discipline, Munhoz utilizes his grappling a lot more, having finished eight fights due to submissions. He has a fantastic guillotine choke, as evidenced in his early UFC career. The former RFA Bantamweight champion has gone 9-5 with a no contest inside the octagon, has some sneaky good power and sort of feels like a Bantamweight version of Gilbert Burns. He's also won Fight of the Night honors in three of his last four fights, and Aldo will definitely be willing to engage enough to ensure another war. I do think Aldo will win this fight, but Munhoz is dangerous. A Munhoz victory is definitely possible. Prediction: Aldo via decision.
UFC Interim Heavyweight championship: (2) Derrick Lewis (25-7, 1 NC) vs. (3) Ciryl Gane (9-0)
In the main event, knockout artist Derrick Lewis and well-rounded technical striker Ciryl Gane will partake in a glorified title eliminator to decide who will face Francis Ngannou in the future. Lewis has finished 20 of his 25 wins via knockout, and his fight against Ngannou a few years ago was shockingly awful. Winning this fight would give him and Ngannou a chance to right the wrongs of that fight. As for Gane, who just so happens to be Ngannou's training partner, a win here gives him to punch his own ticket and have a title fight against his friend.
Gane is a technical striker, is better on the ground than Lewis is, and is also extremely good at avoiding getting hit. Still, Lewis has shown that his power can end any fight at any given moment. Can Gane keep up a technical pace, against someone with Lewis' power, for 25 minutes without getting finished? He did that against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, but Lewis is a different story. Lewis may not be in as good shape as Rosenstruik, but he does have more power, and that power will keeo his chances alive in any fight. While I am going to side with the odds and pick Gane to win a decision, I cannot rule out the possibility of Lewis pulling off a patented late finish to stun everyone once again. Prediction: Gane via decision.
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