Tonight, much to the surprise of many, is the UFC's 100th event to take place on ESPN+. It's not a great card, and the prelims are largely a wash, but the main card is fairly, solid, all things considered. The top two fights are very meaningful, as former Welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns takes on Sean Brady, while former Strawweight champion Jessica Andrade takes on potential contender Natalia Silva. The rest of the main card is fun, at least on paper. The start time is fine, and at least the card won't go on for too long. It's still an APEX card, but the main offering is still better than most of them these days.
Main Card (7/6c, ESPN+)
Yanal Ashmouz (7-1) vs. Trevor Peek (9-2)
Peek has finished eight of his nine wins via knockout, while Ashmouz has finished five of his seven wins. Peek is 2-2 in the UFC and has never been finished, but he needs a win here. This is a toss-up fight, so it could easily go either way. I guess I'll pick him. Prediction: Peek via tko, round 2.
Matt Schnell (16-8, 1 NC) vs. Cody Durden (16-6-1)
Another fun fight that could yield some fireworks. Win or lose, Schnell's fights deliver in entertainment value. Nineteen of his 25 fights have ended via finish, which is very high for Flyweight, and he's a perennial kill or be killed type fighter. He's been finished in three of his last four fights though, so he desperately needs the win.
Durden's a balanced fighter, and he won four straight after a rough start to his UFC career, but he been finished in two straight fights. He's only finished one of his UFC wins, so if he's going to win this one, he'll have to take it to deep waters. My head says he'll find a way, but I'll go with Schnell to turn back the clock and pick up a vintage victory. Prediction: Schnell via submission, round 3.
Kyle Nelson (16-5-1) vs. Steve Garcia (16-5)
Just like the first two fights, the featured bout is also a fun fight, even if it's a short notice one. Garcia was supposed to face Calvin Kattar on this card, which would've been a very interesting, strike-heavy affair, but Kattar got hurt. Kyle Nelson is stepping in on short notice, and while it could be a rough night for him, he has won three straight fights coming into this one. Meanwhile, Garcia has finished four straight wins since losing two of his first three UFC fights, all via strikes, and has finished 13 of his 16 career wins. Nelson has a chance if he can take it to the canvas, but I don't see it happening. Prediction: Garcia via tko, round 2.
(6) Jessica Andrade (26-12) vs. (8) Natalia Silva (17-5-1)
In the co-main event, former UFC Women's Strawweight champion Jessica Andrade will face rising prospect Natalia Silva. Andrade has been in the UFC for 11 years, has fought in all three women's divisions that the UFC has to offer, and has found success in all of them. Her best times were as a Strawweight, and her current two-fight winning streak was in that division as well. This fight is in the Flyweight division, and while she is a former title challenger in this division, Silva will be a tough challenge to overcome.
Silva has won 11 straight fights, is 5-0 in the UFC and could be a potential contender. The former Jungle Fight champion is a natural Flyweight, so she'll have a clear size advantage in this fight. On paper, it makes sense why she's a favorite in this bout. However, my gut feeling is that Andrade will find a way to win. Screw it, I'll pick the former champion. Prediction: Andrade via tko, round 2.
(6) Gilbert Burns (22-7) vs. (8) Sean Brady (16-1)
In the main event, former Welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns will take on Sean Brady. It's an intriguing matchup of BJJ wizard against wrestler, and it's a good test for Brady. Brady is coming off a submission win over Kelvin Gastelum last December, and is 6-1 in his UFC career. His only loss was to current champion Belal Muhammad, and a win would potentially land him in a title eliminator bout.
I'd love to see Burns win this fight. He's a well-rounded fighter with slick grappling, surprising power and always brings it. However, Brady has the tools to neutralize him. He'll essentially have to make this a boring fight to ensure victory, but he definitely has the edge here. I'd love to see an upset, but I have to go with my head here. Prediction: Brady via decision.
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