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Main Card
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
You already know what time it is. 4:20? You damn right. Yo! Hit that Cypress Hill "Hits from the Bong!" The man who could kickbox and hotbox with God is back. Except He's been ducking both. Even the man above doesn't want any of that "Suga" Sean O'Malley smoke lest he look like Smokey in the chicken coup after one bong load of that Dvalishvili Kush O'Malley is packing. When they page Dr. Greenthumb, Sean O'Malley shows up with a stethoscope and two indica-laced fists, ready to prescribe a homeopathic treatment to cure anything that ails you. But can they cure the inoperable tumor that is Merab Dvalishvili? Merab is a rare form of terminal cancer that progresses straight to stage four as soon as he lays a hand on you. Operation Warp Speed, Dr. Greenthumb will have to forego the clinical trials and put his indica hands into immediate commercial use. It will be a groundbreaking discovery that will shock the medical community if O'Malley can send Merab into remission.
Although O'Malley has indica hands, he will have to blow some sativa before he steps into the cage if he plans to defend one hundred Merab double legs. He'll also need that Slickback footwork. It looks like O'Malley levitates when he starts dancing circles around the cage as he threads the needle with his jab from the outside. O'Malley is a master at keeping his back off the cage and using lateral movement to stay in the center. It looks like an old-school Soul Train line when O'Malley starts feeling himself, opening up on the outside and letting his hands go in AR-like three-shot bursts. Matter of fact, hit that Mac Dre "Feeling Myself!" Sean's in the building, and he's feeling himself. The key for O'Malley will be footwork and making Merab chase him around the cage while leading Merab into a vicious counter. The fadeaway cross counter that O'Malley used to win the title against Aljo (Merab's teammate) will be available all night.
Outside his footwork, O'Malley has some of the best pure boxing in the UFC. Suga wastes no time establishing his striking dominance the second the bell rings. His style may look pretty, his precise technical nature even a bit pretentious, but trust, O'Malley wants all the smoke like Mark Coleman – like Patty and Selma turned into the Doobie Sisters. Speaking of smoke. Its presence usually indicates fire. Against Chito Vera, O'Malley came out on fire like Paul Walker, piecing Chito up and slanging him in nicks and dimes. O'Malley uses every inch of his reach, and his hands are like bungee cords. If Merab's not careful, O'Malley will have him wrapped up and strapped to the top of O'Malley's 4Runner like luggage. O'Malley's special move is making fundamentals look flashy. His hands are quick, poisonous darts, and he's surgical with them shits. You can't eat or drink for twenty-four hours leading up to fighting O'Malley; they roll his hands out on a little silver tray. Overall, O'Malley is a striking artist. Call him Dansky. Each punch is a brush stroke, and each fight is a gallery in which to showcase his latest masterpiece.
But absolutely none of that matters if O'Malley can't use his footwork and long-range weapons to create space and keep Merab off of his legs/hips. O'Malley rocks a sixty-two percent takedown defense and was taken down six times against Petr Yan. But O'Malley showed excellent ability to get back to his feet. Don't sleep on O'Malley's grappling/Jiu-Jitsu. O'Malley has competed in high-level Jitz tournaments over the years outside of UFC competition. Dude has slick grappling; we just rarely see it. O'Malley averages over seven and a half SLpM and is one of the few fighters who can use volume without leaving himself open to takedowns. When Merab closes the distance, he will look like the homie in Apocalypto, zigging and zagging, trying to avoid the spears hucked at him. The fight will teeter on a razor's edge whenever Merab closes the distance.
I'll tell you this from the jump: This fight has Leon vs. Belal feels. The value in this fight is a Merab upset. World-class strikers, Merab has faced them. And Merab has stifled all of them and even out-struck them in some instances, like when he fought Yan and Cejudo. Seeing Merab out-strike strikers makes no sense, like Tech N9ne lyrics. But he uses level changes like a jab and never allows you to develop any kind of rhythm on the feet. This guy's cardio was developed by DARPA. Nobody weaponizes cardio and pace like Merab.
Merab Dvalishvili is the physical embodiment of the movie Speed. If at any time Merab dips under ten takedown attempts per minute, the whole arena will explode. Merab's pace will drive you insane. His therapist needed therapy after watching Merab attempt fifty takedowns against Petr Yan. Hell is defending Merab's double legs for eternity like the homie who rolls the boulder up a hill, only for it to roll back down each time. You defend a takedown, only for Merab to immediately shoot again. And if he gets hold of you, he'll pick you up and carry you across the cage like a rowdy patron out of the establishment. MF fireman carries his Costco shopping cart. One Man and a Van. Merab could suplex a grand piano up two flights of stairs. Merab fights like he outnumbers you ten to one. He could hold off 300 Spartans by himself. Legend has it that Merab took Leonidas down twenty times. When you hit Merab, he multiplies like Gremlins when they get wet. Overall, Merab is a volume-over-control wrestler who focuses on taking you down repeatedly more so than maintaining top control.
Major Malfunctions? Merab has plenty of them. The most glaring being on the feet. Merab has been chin-checked like Cube, Ren, and them multiple times in his career. Marlon Moraes had Merab swinging from the Chandeliers like Sia. Yo! Hit that shit! Merab can, and eventually will, get got on the feet. He uses volume and the threat of the takedown to chip away. But if takedowns weren't a factor, Merab's striking would be mid-AF. He will have to cut the cage and find clever ways to close the distance against O'Malley. But outside of his striking, Merab's majorest malfunction is he never finishes like David Carradine. Merab is 17-4 with only four finishes, three TKO/KOs, and one sub. And only one of those finishes came in one of his twelve UFC bouts.
Fantasy-wise, Merab has monster potential even without a finish. He averages four and a half SLpM and over six takedowns per minute with all kinds of control time between. It doesn't look like much, but it adds up. In three rounds against Cejudo, Merab landed seventy-five significant strikes, five takedowns, and almost an entire round of control time. He has the unique ability to take O'Malley out of his game and make O'Malley fight Merab's. In many ways, this might be the toughest challenge for O'Malley at bantamweight.
O'Malley will be the (-130) favorite, and Merab will be the (+110) live-ass dog. I was hoping Vegas would sleep on Merab. The play for O'Malley is a TKO/KO finish. If his cardio holds up, he can win a decision by piecing up Merab for twenty-five minutes. But I can see the step-back cross that McGregor landed on Aldo in the opening seconds, leading to a fight-ending sequence for O'Malley. Merab never stops rushing forward and will be vulnerable. The play for Merab is a decision. He can stifle O'Malley's striking and drag O'Malley into the Titan Sub deep waters. Nobody can withstand Merab's pressure and pace. You have to get Merab out of there early.
Gilbert Boo-urns is cooked. The main event dub streak never streaked. Turns out my initial feelings were correct. I broke my own rule about changing picks at the last minute, and it cost me. And this main event has trap fight written all over it for O'Malley. He already has his eyes on bigger things, and that could be a mistake. But I can't shake the image of that electric slide right hand... Sean O'Malley via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.
Props
O'Malley: TKO/KO (+150) Sub (+1800) Dec (+400)
Merab: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+2000) Dec (+165)
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3
They're watching us. Even when I type "Alexa," she perks right up, "How may I assist you?" Well, since you're here, "Who is the female UFC Flyweight Champion of the world? I still haven't gotten used to the answer. Alexa Grasso picked up the world and dropped it on our fookin' heads last year on some Em and Lil Weezy-type shit. Yo! Hit that "Drop The World!" It was one of if not the greatest upsets in women's history. If I had had it my way, my daughter's name would be Valentina; there's no bigger Valentina fan than yours truly. But in their first two meetings, during the most crucial times when the fight was on the line, Grasso out-dogged Valentina. The second fight ended in a draw (I thought Valentina won), and here we are for a rare rubber match.
In the first fight, Grasso pulled off some Houdini shit and escaped a position no one ever escapes against Shevchenko, the crucifix. Grasso was like the guy who escaped Jeffrey Dahmer's house, running down the street ass-neked, only to get brought back to Jeffrey's house by a pair of cops. Except Grasso didn't get recaptured and turned into party ice-cubes. In the next round, Grasso choked out Shevchenko, leaving a white, bloodless stripe across Valentina's face. That choke was like a tourniquet. You'd have to be able to hold your breath like Bill Withers at the end of "Lovely Day" to escape that choke. And even then, your chances would be slim. Valentina has shown she is the better grappler. Still, Alexa has proven to be more dangerous when she can achieve certain positions, like taking Valentina's back. But Grasso was taken down four times in each fight and gave up nearly noine minutes of control time in the second.
Valentina had to be treated with Neosporin for third-degree mat burns on her knees after the first two scraps. It looked like Val was going to bleed out from her knees after shooting desperately for twenty-five minutes. That tells you a lot about who the better striker is. Grasso had Valentina on a pair of Heelys, window shopping at the mall in both fights. But Grasso couldn't stay on her feet long enough to capitalize. Grasso rocks a fifty-noine percent takedown defense, while Shevchenko has turned into an honorary Nurmagomedov, averaging over two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Grasso has had success defending takedowns late but struggles in the opening rounds, subsequently digging big holes for herself. If she can keep this fight standing for longer stretches, she will beat Valentina again. Grasso just has Shevchenko's number on the feet.
As of late, Shevchenko has turned into the female version of GSP. GSP, the best striker in the welterweight division, almost always chose to use his superior wrestling to avoid any possibility of getting Matt Serra'd a second time. A man who never wrestled in high school or college dominated on the mat. The same is true for Shevchenko. She came into this game as one of the best female strikers ever-ever. But she realized she could extend her longevity by using her grappling. At her peak, Shevchenko was so good that her fights were boring. She just dominated wherever the fight went. Her style is regimented - militaristic - Shevchenko is a f**kin' soldier. Cue that Kellen Winslow Jr shit! But don't google where Kellen Winslow Jr. is now. But Shevchenko must break out of her strict fundamental box to beat Grasso, especially in the striking.
There's just too much order and civility in Shevchenko's style. She needs to pound a couple of Flying Moe's to get a fire in her belly. Valentina has played it safe against Grasso, opting to ride out control time to eke out rounds instead of looking to create damage and punish Grasso. Also, Shevchenko is more of a counterstriker. She tends to struggle when she has to lead the dance and initiate her own offense. That was never the case before she fought Grasso. Shevchenko needs to let her striking dictate her wrestling. And when she gets the fight to the mat, she has to advance position and not be content with just controlling the top position.
Grasso will be the (+125) favorite, and Shevchenko will be the early (+105) live-ass dog. Shevy can implement the same game plan she did in the previous fights and eke out a decision by using her wrestling. But in each fight, she has ended up in bad positions, giving up her back in the final round of the last bout. Shevchenko is the better wrestler, but Grasso has better/more dangerous Jiu-Jitsu, complete with slick back-takes if she can catch you slippin'. The play for each fighter is a decision, but Grasso is the slightly better finishing threat on the feet. Damn, I've been dreading this moment. This is historical. I have never picked against Valentina on the WKO. But I always knew the day would come. Alexa Grasso via decision. On wax.
Props
Grasso: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+400) Dec (+175)
Shevchenko: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+1100) Dec (+180)
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
This fight was cancelled just hours before the fighters were set to take the Octagon at UFC 303. I'll post my original write-up, but after Lopes's last performance against Dan Ige, who stepped in on literally just a couple hours' notice, I'm changing my pick.
Ba, ba, ba, BANGER! These two get down like they rubbed their asses in the ground when it comes to rolling Jiu-Jitsu. If this fight hits the mat, it could be Gaethje vs. Max, the grappling version. But that's a big if because, quite often, when you have two elite grapplers, the fight turns into a kickboxing match. Fortunately, if that's the case, these guys aren't chumps on their feet and will engage in a stop, drop, and roll firefight.
Diego Lopes is the grown-up version of the goth kid from South Park who flicks his hair, "Life is pain. Life is only pain." After freaking out his parents and two exorcisms later, Lopes is one fight away from catapulting into a possible title eliminator. With a dub, Lopes could be taking his band on the road and selling out stadiums, "Oh, no, no, no. I'm not gonna be in your talent show!" My man will complete the modern-day rags to riches story, but in Lopes's case, he will go from trench coats to mink coats – from black nail polish to pinkie rings. Lopes will finally be able to realize his life's dream of opening his own Hot Topic store in an abandoned mall. In his last bout, "Sweat The" Sodiq Yusuff found out what happens when you call Diego Lopes emo. Yusuff got viciously TKO'd in under two minutes. Silly Sodiq – everybody knows emos are posers. Goth's darkness is nihilistic, while Emos's is cynical.
Diego Lopes has been Mollywhopping people on the feet so much lately that Amy and Susie are starting to get jealous. My man Diego has been out here looking like a zesty Theo Von, like a professional Riff Raff with a Hilly Billy heartthrob mullet, TKO'ing and KO'ing opponents up a storm. But I'm here to warn you for future reference: Diego isn't a striker. IDGAF – I know he's been sleeping people, and he might even KO Ortega, but his striking will eventually be exposed at the highest level. He's all aggression and volume and kind of reminds me of Alexandre Pantoja on the feet. Lopes is far from a technical striker, but he has no reservations on his feet. His heart pumps no fear, and he won't hesitate to engage in 50/50 exchanges with anybody in the division. But what makes Lopes special is his grappling.
Lopes averages five sub-attempts per fifteen minutes. He throws up armbars and triangles like jabs. Check it: Diego's Grandpappy is a Jiu-jitsu coral belt. And that ain't no Bikini Bottom Jiu-Jitsu. You receive a coral belt after you've held a black belt for thirty fookin' years. You best recognize Grandpappy Lopes like he looks familiar. Diego inherited a black belt like some kids inherit blue eyes or alopecia. This guy came out of the womb, and the Doc wrapped a black belt around him. In his short-notice debut against Movsar Evloev, Diego had Evloev tied up in Boy Scout knots, barely escaping sub attempt after sub attempt. Deigo lost that fight but made a name for himself as a dangerous Jitz God disciple. Lopes is 24-6 with twenty-two finishes, including ten TKO/KOs and twelve subs. I think his value is in a TKO/KO finish or a possible club-and-sub.
Brian Ortega is a conundrum on the feet. He is dangerous offensively, but he is defensively illiterate – on some Floyd Mayweather type-ish. Ortega can't even spell defence. His defense is offensive. I'm like literally shaking thinking about him standing there eating punches to the face like Lizzo standing at the end of a donut conveyor belt. He eats punches like Joey Chestnut eats weenies.
"Hey, buddy! They're called Franks!"
"Hey, pawtna! I ain't your buddy!"
Ortega's chin is so compromised that the draft when you walk into a convenience store wobbles him. In the first round against Yair, death was twiddling its fingers like Mr. Burns in anticipation of a new tenant. Ortega Danced With The Devil like Immortal Technique. He wore a lacy little number and batted his eyelashes at disaster. But then he rose like a River Phoenix never did. Ortega has a habit of getting his ass kicked until he sees the light at the end of the tunnel, and the Rocky theme song cuts through the disembodied choir singing in the background. Ortega's best weapon is he has that dog in him like a Black Mirror Metalhead dog found a Resident Evil zombie dog in heat.
On the feet, Ortega will be more offensively technical. Ortega has crispy boxing and a sneaky spinning back elbow counter. He draws the opponent forward, then breaks into a spinning elbow when they are fully committed to an attack. He ruined the Korean Zombie's career with a spinning back elbow counter. I have no idea who will get the better of the stand-up. I haven't seen Diego's at long stretches, and Ortega is too vulnerable. After every exchange, Ortega freezes in the pocket instead of rolling off punches or stepping off at angles. On the mat, Ortega's specialty is the guillotine. His nickname is T-City (Triangle City), but he's far handier with guillotines. Escaping his guillotine is like escaping Alcatraz, and Volkanovski is the only one to ever accomplish the feat. Ortega is 16-3 for his career with three TKO/KOs and eight subs. Ortega will be the higher-output striker averaging four SLpM to Lopes' just over three.
Diego Lopes is the (-180) favorite, and Ortega is the (+155) live-ass dog. The odds have grown slightly more in Lopes' favor after his dub against Ige. Ige finished that fight strong, winning the final round, and I think that is a bad sign for Lopes against Ortega. Even after sustaining damage like the car in a Street Fighter bonus round, Ortega doesn't fade. I like Lopes's chances of an early finish and Ortega's for a late finish. But a decision for each fighter is also in play. Neither fighter has ever been submitted, and I think their ground games could cancel each other out. I say all that to say this: Brian Ortega is the wrong guy to bet against. Brian Ortega via rear-naked choke, round three. Put it on wax.
Props
Ortega: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+750) Dec (+350)
Lopes: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+500) Dec (+225)
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
This one right here is Cranbrook High vs. Carlmont High from Dangerous Minds. F**k Cranbrook! This is a private school versus the inner city – plaid uniforms with folded collars and Doc Martins versus Dickies and Chucks. This is fisticuffs in the BFE parking lot after school. Daniel Zellhuber represents the preppy, technical striker, and Esteban Ribovics represents the jock with scholarship power. Most importantly, this is a striker's delight – wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu need not apply. This fight is all but guaranteed to be in the mix for Fight of the Night.
Esteban Ribovics is south of the border Dustin Poirier. AKA Spicy Poirier. AKA outsourced Poirier. Ribovics fights like a Mexican, but he's from Argentina. Ribovics is the MMA equivalent of Brett Favre. He might throw three picks, but he will also throw for four hundred yards and four tuddies. Back in the day, Favre's coaches would tell him to take care of the football, and he'd say, "What football?" Careless? Nah, he was carefree. Ribovics is carefree on the feet, a free spirit who launches nothing but chest-level Poirier shovel hooks. Every exchange, Ribovics goes out on his sword like Seppuku – hari-kari. And I ain't talking the late, great Cubs announcer. Ribovics manipulates the pocket with stance-switching pivots. He can give ground and counter or advance and attack with a quick, seamless pivot. If you're looking for Esteban Ribovics, you can find him in the pocket. He never leaves it. Ribovics's pocket survival skills are on some Les Stroud type-ish. He's a homesteader who lives off the land – self-sustained – and never has to leave the pocket. When Ribovics throws, his hands look heavy, like he has to have spotters 24/7 to help him eat and wipe his ass. This guy will beat the brakes, pair of dice, and the Mexican blanket on the back seat off you real quick.
Ask Terrance McKinney. He left McKinney slumped against the cage with a smile on his face. He looked like he was soñando dulce sueños (having sweet dreams). It's a shame; a man's sleep is the only place he can smile these days. Ribovics is a slow starter whose ass-whoopin's avalanche, building momentum as the fight progresses. My man will spot you the first round just to let the dub marinate. He bastes the dub with a 10-9 first-round loss and throws it in the slow cooker so it falls off the bone in the third round when he KO's his opponent. You can't let this guy get warmed up, or it's that ass.
Major malfunction? His takedown defense is like Twitter (X if you want to be a Richard about it) in Brazil. Ribovics is out there slipping on banana peels like this shit is Mario Cart. He lost his debut because he couldn't stay on his feet long enough to land a kill shot. Fortunately, he won't have to worry about that against Zellhuber. Ribovics is 13-1 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and five subs. Dude is a finisher. And he averages nearly six and a half SLpM to Zellhuber's just over five and a half. His path to victory will be dragging Zellhuber into a firefight and not allowing Zellhuber to dictate the pace from the outside.
"Damn," Daniel Zellhuber is the type to be down a round to his shadow while shadowboxing. He was the kid who had a bedtime at sleepovers. His parents used to put him to bed when the streetlights came on. He's the type who would never look over his divider to see what his neighbor put down for question number twelve. Zellhuber plays by the rules, adheres to strict fundamentals and technique. He thrives when he can dictate the terms of the engagement, controlling the pocket from the outside while avoiding extended exchanges. His hands are tight like jar lids – like Meek before he met Diddy. His hands are tight, like parking spaces in Pacific Beach (IYKYK). Overall, Zellhuber is an excellent technical striker, and his hands will have the inside track on Ribovic's wide hooks. But Zellhuber is missing something.
He lacks defensive instincts. As much as Ribovics leaves himself wide open to counters, so does Zellhuber. Zellhuber has passive-aggressive defense; he just ignores punches, pretends they aren't in the room, and addresses them indirectly through a third-party mediator. He acts like if he ignores incoming strikes, they will just go away. He has zero point-zero head movement when striking and while under fire. The key for Zellhuber will be avoiding exchanges in the pocket and sniping between Ribovics's shoulders from the outside. Zellhuber is 15-1 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and three subs and has won three straight after dropping his debut. Also, Zellhuber is coming in off a career-high one hundred twenty strikes landed against Francisco Prado.
Zellhuber will be the (-240) favorite, and Ribovics will be the (+200) live-ass dog. Bring 'em out! Bring 'em out! Bust out the Piso Mojado signs. Ribovics will be flooding your basement with value. I think both fighters are finishing threats, but I lean toward Ribovics's unorthodox style and power as a slightly bigger threat. Fantasy-wise, Ribovics will be a steal. This will be a nip/tuck, back-and-forth affair, and even in a loss, Ribovics can put up solid striking stats with an upside of a finish. When it comes to having that Costco buck-fiddy dog, I know Ribovics has it. But I'm not so sure Zellhuber does. I've been getting burned on dogs lately, but I won't stop picking them. Esteban Ribovics via TKO, round three. On Wax.
Props
Zellhuber: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+1100) Dec (+110)
Ribovics: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+2000) Dec (+350)
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne
Who let this one in the back door? Yo! Hit that Bubba Sparxxx "Ugly!" Three "x's" at the end of Bubba's name is diabolical. Anywho, this matchup came out of left field like a closer. Ronaldo is a fitting name for Ronaldo Rodriguez because he gets his ass kicked like a Ronaldo hat trick while simultaneously kicking ass like a Ronaldo golden goal. This kid is such a glutton for punishment he has to take confession after every fight. And Ode Osbourne is a schizophrenic fighter who flips a coin to determine if he is feeling dangerous today or not. Rodriguez is making only his second UFC appearance, and, to be honest, outside of his last name, I don't know how he landed a main card spot on a PPV. Bust out the Beetlejuice meme:
What you need to know about Ronaldo is that his super power is getting punched in the face. Ronaldo won't hesitate to eat ten punches to deliver one. His chin has Cybertruck armor. They use Ronaldo's chin to detonate bombs on some Hurt Locker type-shit. Ronaldo's chin has unlimited hitpoints like it wears God's mail. When it comes to eating punches, this kid has Lizzo's appetite. Too much is never enough. His chin is the type to take home a doggie bag from the punch buffet. This guy's chin is more hittable than Meek in the champagne room. Why? Because he stays stationary like the Hallmark store. Ronaldo just stands in front of you and throws. But the chances are good that you'll gas out punching him in the face before his chin shows any cracks.
That was a long route to saying, I don't really know what this kid is good at. He has some mut in him – some back alley stray dog in him, but his skills are limited. He relies too much on his chin and doesn't always throw enough. Plus, his nickname is "Lazy Boy," and that's never a good look when you're a prizefighter. Ronaldo is 16-2 with seven TKO/KOs and five subs and is coming in off a second-round submission of Denys Bondar, a sneaky-good fighter. I like playing this kid for a late finish. A decision will favor Osbourne grounding Rodriguez and riding out top control to a decision. Ronaldo will have to finish this fight to win. The good news is Osbourne has five losses inside the UFC, and all were finishes.
Ode Osbourne has been looking like Ozzy Osbourne lately. He's been going through Changes since his UFC debut when he used to be a slick, long striker. Now, Ode is a full-blown wrestler. No one can Zero The Hero quicker than Ode. He will dominate a fight you think he will lose and lose a fight you think he should win. Five for five dead or alive, when homie goes out, he dies hard, and nobody shows up to his Electric Funeral because he fooked up too many people's parlays over the years. Falling off the Edge of the World after a fast start is Ode's special move - homie catches the speed wobbles, and when you catch the speed wobbles, never jump off. Just ride it out. At this point, you're begging to get slapped by the Hand of Doom if you're still betting on Ode Osbourne fights. But you're my type of sick f**k! Fook it! It's my Jackson, and I'll bet who I want to!
Osbourne is 12-7 with five TKO/KOs and four subs and averages three and a half SLpM to Ronaldo's two. But Ode averages just under one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Ronaldo was taken down four times in his debut. Rodriguez will be the (-150) favorite, and Osbourne will be the (+130) live dog. Hit that George Michaels "Faith" one time for ya boy! Because I don't have any in Ode Osbourne. His style is too generic, and he has lost two in a row and three of his last four. How did he beat Charles Johnson in that span? See what I'm sizzlin'? I'm playing Ronaldo for a finish. Ronaldo Rodriguez via rear-naked choke, round three. Wax on, wax off.
Props
Rodriguez: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+300) Dec (+300)
Osbourne: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+2200) Dec (+350)
Prelims
$7k Value Menu
Merab Dvalishvili ($7.7k): Merab will be a big gamble. Nothing about Merab's style is pretty. He's all walks, bunts, dropped third strikes, and infield singles. He's Moneyball, the MMA version. But he can manufacture Fantasy points no matter the style matchup. Pace and cardio: Nobody in the UFC weaponizes them like Merab. We've seen this guy's pressure and constant level changes stifle some of the best strikers to fight at Bantamweight. Merab is a gamble because there's a good chance he could get got early. Danksy is a striking artist and using every inch of his range is his paintbrush. If Merab can find crafty pocket entries and tie up O'Malley right from the jump, he can ride out and drain some of O'Malley's quickness. The longer this fight goes, the better chance Merab will have of grinding down O'Malley and racking up takedowns, control time, and significant strikes.
Brian Ortega ($7.5k): This fight will likely end in a finish. Who will be the finisher? That's a toss-up. Ortega can bang on the feet and rub his ass 'till the moonshine on the mat. I saw Diego Lopes fade in the third round against Dan Ige. Ige dominated the third round, and much of it was from the top position. If Ortega can get Lopes down late, it could be a wrap. Ortega's best attribute is that he's a fookin' Black Mirror Metalhead dog. Yair riddled him with holes like the Bonnie and Clyde car in the first round, only for Ortega to climb out that bish and submit Yair in the third round. A dogfight, which this is all but guaranteed to be, favors the guy who has been in the cage with Max and Volk. Never forget the fifth round of the Volkanovski fight. After taking a beating for twenty minutes, Ortega won the fight. Seven of Ortega's eight UFC dubs came via finish. His upside is the fookin' moon.
Esteban Ribovics ($7.2k): I love hard. When I fall for someone, it's usually head over heels. I'm an MMA romantic. I could be overestimating Ribovics in this matchup, but I think he's gonna surprise Daniel Zellhuber. Zelly relies on a moderate pace that he can dictate. And Ribovics is a fookin' party crasher, sampling all the hors d'oeuvres before he gets escorted out. This guy will wade into the pocket and force Zellhuber out of his safe space, out of his comfort zone. In Ribovics, you're getting a guy who averages over six SLpM and can go over one hundred significant fights. This kid cracks like butt cheeks and reminds me of a southern hemisphere Dustin Poirier. Twelve of his thirteen career dubs came via finish. The big question is, can he get inside Zellhuber's reach consistently to unleash damage inside the pocket and draw Zelly into a firefight? I think so.
$6k Clearance Rack
Aoriqileng ($6.5k): This guy is your only budget option on the Dollar Menu this week. But I'm highlighting him anyway because I'm not so sure Aoriqileng won't fook around and get a triple-double. His opponent, the Easter Island head, Raul Rosas Jr., is car abandoned on the side of the road waiting to happen. This kid is only noineteen, but his stamina is that of a sixty-five-year-old. My man has five minutes of fiery fury before he rolls over and reaches for the pack of Newports on the nightstand. If Aoriqileng can survive the first five minutes and stay on his feet during the second half of the fight, he will box Rosas's face... off.
Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers
Merab (+110): I can't shake the Leon vs. Belal feels. Leon and O'Malley have similar styles, and so do Belal and Merab. I think O'Malley is a slightly better/more dangerous striker than Leon. But Merab can still implement a Belal-like game plan against a long, fast striker. Also, it's easy to sleep on Merab and his West Coast, dink and dunk style. And I think that's exactly what O'Malley is doing. We watched Petr Yan do the same thing. If O'Malley can't get Merab out of there early, he will be in for a war the likes of which he has yet to experience.
Brian Ortega (+155): This is a steal. I picked Diego Lopes two months ago when these guys were originally matched up. After seeing Lopes hit the wall like Dale in the third round, I switched my pick. Lopes wastes too much energy in the opening minutes trying to finish the fight. He comes out sprinting, which will almost always lead to a slow finish. My worry about Ortega is his chin. In every fight, at some point, Ortega starts auditioning for Dancing with the Stars, doing a little Salsa, a cha-cha, and I've even seen him do a solo Tango. Ortega's chin is suspect like a police six-pack. And he's only been finished once (technically lost to Yair by injury, too) by Max. Diego Lopes ain't Max Holloway. Ortega can finish on the feet or on the mat. Lopes's takedown defense isn't great...
Aoriqileng (+600): This is a fookin' loooooooong shot. But there is value here. Raul Rosas's cardio is suspect like a police lineup, "Number three, please step forward." Rosas will manhandle Aoriqileng in the opening round – maybe even into the second round. But If Aoriqileng can survive, the takedown well will dry up on Rosas, and he'll be assed-out like Daisy Dukes. Aoriqileng cracks like a plumber's ass. He has odd, awkward arm angles and sneaky power. I'm picking Rosas by early finish, but I'll probably have a little Lincoln on an Aoriqileng TKO/KO.
Pick 'Em
"Me, Myself &" Irene Aldana (-110) vs. Norma Dumont (-110)
Winner: Irene Aldana
Method: Decision
Manuel Torres (-122) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+105)
Winner: Ignacio Bahamondes
Method: TKO Rd.3
Yazmin Juaregui (-500) vs. Ketlen Souza (+350)
Winner: Yazmin Juaregui
Method: Decision
Edgar Chairez (+190) vs. Joshua Van (-250)
Winner: Joshua Van
Method: TKO Rd.3
Raul Rosas Jr. (-800) vs. Aoriqileng (+600)
Winner: Raul Rosas Jr.
Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2
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