Raul Rosas Jr vs Aoriqileng - This is essentially a showcase fight for Rosas. The best thing I can say about Aoriqileng is that he's durable and likes to brawl. Durability doesn't really matter when you're being choked out and him brawling will likely lead him to getting taken down. Rosas takedowns aren't very good, but he's improving and he's relentless. He's the much better and more explosive athlete as well. I expect him to get Aoriqileng to the mat early and lock up a submission shortly after.
Pick: Raul Rosas Jr by Submission RD 1
Edgar Chairez vs Joshua Van - Van is stepping in here on short notice and that was a great choice for him. This is a good matchup for him from what I can tell, but Chairez is hard to get a read on. He's 1-1 in the UFC and has beaten Daniel Lacerda and lost to Tatsuro Taira. That really doesn't help us gauge where he belongs in the division as Lacerda was terrible and was cut and Taira is a top level talent. Van looks like a contender though and while he's young and has his own issues, I don't see Chairez having the tools to be able to exploit them.
Pick: Joshua Van by KO/TKO RD 3
Yasmin Jauregui vs Ketlen Souza - This fight reminds me of the one right before it. Souza is a fighter that's hard to get a read on, she's beaten Marnic Mann and lost to Karine Silva. Silva looks like she could be a contender while Mann is trash and doesn't belong on the roster, so those fights don't really tell us much. On the other side, Jauregui looks like she could be a contender. Souza has some power and is dangerous, but Jauregui is better everywhere and should be able to outclass her.
Pick: Yasmin Jauregui by Decision
Manuel Torres vs Ignacio Bahamondes - This seems like a lower level version of the fight on the main card between Zellhuber and Ribovics. Bahamondes is like Zellhuber, lanky, good technique, trains with a good team, has more experience, and looks like he can win the rounds, but Torres is like Ribovics, super dangerous and aggressive. For this fight, I like the more aggressive fighter. Bahamondes is more likely to be drawn into the brawl than a guy like Zellhuber and his defense isn't nearly as good. Torres actually has better defense, better accuracy, better wrestling, and dangerous submissions. We haven't seen Torres go later into fights, but if he does I think he'll be fine and can fall back onto that wrestling a bit if needed.
Pick: Manuel Torres by KO/TKO RD 1
Irene Aldana vs Norma Dumont - This was one of the hardest fights on the card for me to pick. Aldana is really overrated in my eyes. Her accuracy and defense is awful, she just throws a lot, is tough, and will keep attacking. Dumont isn't good either though, she's accurate but low volume and will look to control with wrestling and grappling. Aldana's takedown defense isn't great so if Dumont is able to get ahold of her, she can rack up control time and win the rounds. Aldana could just win the rounds with volume though and potentially hurt Dumont. It's a bit of a coin flip, I'll take Dumont as an underdog.
Pick: Norma Dumont by Decision
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne - Osbourne is on his way out. This guy is a good athlete, but he's not great anywhere, and when the fight starts to get rough, he collapses fast. Rodriguez is the exact opposite. The guy is a scrappy Mexican fighter with heart who's dangerous everywhere. Osbourne will likely have success early, but once Rodriguez pushes back, Osbourne will just completely fall apart. Give me Rodriguez to score a finish late round 1 or round 2.
Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez by Submission RD 2
Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics - This is a great fight actually. Zellhuber looks like a great prospect and future contender as he's good everywhere, he's got great technique, and could be a big star for Mexico. Ribovics isn't as polished, but the guy is super aggressive and a finisher. I see Zellhuber either using his height and reach to stay on the outside and outclass Ribovics, or Ribovics luring him into a brawl and putting him away. Zellhuber has a tendency to brawl a bit more than he should, but I think he stays clean here and wins the rounds.
Pick: Daniel Zellhuber by Decision
Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes - Lopes is the favorite here but I love Ortega as an underdog. I made money betting him against Yair in his last fight when everyone thought Yair would beat him. Lopes is super aggressive, he's got power in his strikes, and he's got a high level grappling game. His striking is a bit sloppy though and we've seen him slow down in fights, something that could be a major problem against Ortega who's known for dropping early rounds to come back and finish the fight. Ortega could have not taken this fight here, he cancelled the last one on fight day due to an illness and he could have just moved on, but he wanted this and I think he sees a way to victory. He's the more technical striker, he should do better on the feet than he did against Yair assuming he doesn't roll his ankle to start the fight again, and his ability to build into fights and take over late looks like a big problem for Lopes. I expect Lopes to swarm him early, I don't think we see a more calculated approach from him. Ortega will survive, land some shots, do better in round 2 and put Lopes away in round 3.
Pick: Brian Ortega by Submission RD 3
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko - This is a really interesting fight and everyone seems to be favoring Grasso as she's now the betting favorite for the first time in their 3 fights as well. I totally get that, she's probably the smart pick, she's younger, she's Mexican and this is UFC Noche on Mexican Independence Day. That being said, it's always hard to doubt Shevchenko, especially with her now being an underdog. Grasso is the better boxer, she needs to stay completely outside or crash in and land punches to win this fight. She also does well fighting southpaw as well to negate some of Shevchenko's attacks. Shevchenko has the better kicks and can do damage at range and she's also the better wrestler and can rack up control time if she gets top control. Don't follow my pick on this one, I'm somewhat expecting Grasso to win, but I'm going to take Shevchenko. I think Shevchenko wants this fight more than Grasso does, especially since she did end up taking it on Mexican Independence Day which she openly stated she didn't want. I also think Shevchenko is the smarter fighter whereas Grasso is just tough and wily and has the ability to make fights close. Shevchenko knows she can have success with the takedowns and I think we see an aggressive Grasso here give her the opportunity to get her wrestling going. Shevchenko edges out the decision and we get a very unwanted 4th fight.
Pick: Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili - This is a fun matchup on paper but I see it being one-sided in the actual fight, but it could go either way. If Merab is able to close the distance and get ahold of O'Malley, then he'll be able to get him to the mat. O'Malley doesn't have the best takedown defense or ability to get back to his feet. He's got good grappling though and could threaten with submissions and his long frame will help with that. Merab also doesn't have the best top control. He lands so many takedowns because his opponents keep getting back up. On top of that, Merab and his coaches have already admitted he's going to have to eat some shots to get to O'Malley and I like the sense of reality there, but it's also not good. Merab has been hurt on the feet a few times against strikers who aren't as good and don't hit as hard as O'Malley. Merab rushes forward to get takedowns, doesn't have good defense, and is willing to eat shots to close the distance. Against O'Malley, with his elusive footwork and KO power, I think he gets knocked out early.
Pick: Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO RD 1
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