This weekend, after months of hype, UFC 306 will finally happen. It's supposedly a "love letter to Mexican MMA," but it's been feeling more like a marketing ploy about the Sphere and soulless corporate pandering in recent weeks. When the UFC first announced that they'd do a second edition of Noche UFC, fans were intrigued. Then they announced that it would be a PPV and in the Sphere, and the result was both fascination and weariness. That was before they gave it a stupid name that I will not type out, based on a sponsor that's notorious for sports-washing, and the pandering grew all the more. The ticket prices are obscene, especially for a card that is a glorified Fight Night with a pair of title fights atop it. There's only ten fights in total, and it's fair to wonder how many people will be willing to purchase the PPV after they see what the scene looks like during the prelims.
Regardless, the card should be a fun one, and the main fights are pretty good. The main event is a Bantamweight title bout between Sean O'Malley and top contender Merab Dvalishvili, which should be an interesting clash of styles. The co-main is a trilogy bout between current Women's Flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champion Valentina Shevchenko, while the featured bout is a key Featherweight bout between former two-time title challenger Brian Ortega and surging prospect Diego Lopes. The rest of the card is entertaining, but not PPV quality. Is it worth the ticket price? No, but company isn't marketing this to get the core fanbase anyways. Is it worth buying the show? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, here's how I see the fights playing out.
Preliminary Card (7:30/6:30c, ESPNEWS and ESPN+)
Aori Qileng (25-11, 1 NC) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (9-1)
This fight is listed as the lone early prelim bout, but the televised prelims are going to include this fight so it's all a part of one slate. Based on that probability, this is a solid fight to open the show. Rosas Jr. is an entertaining and charismatic prospect who has finished eight of his nine wins, six of them via submission. He's 3-1 in the UFC, despite being only 19 years old, and is one of the brightest Mexican prospects in the sport. Now, he's facing an opponent with a lot of experience, but a 3-3 UFC record with a no contest and no notable wins. This is Rosas' fight to win, even if I'm not as high on him as others might be. Prediction: Rosas via submission, round 2.
Edgar Chairez (11-5) vs. Joshua Van (10-2)
This should be a fun fight. Chairez has finished all 11 of his wins and is usually fun to watch. Van has gone the distance in two of his three UFC bouts, but he's won them all and has quite a bit of potential. I'll pick him to come away with the victory over the crowd favorite. Prediction: Van via decision.
Yazmin Jauregui (11-1) vs. Ketlen Souza (14-4)
Next up is a battle between Mexican prospect Yazmin Jauregui and former Invicta champion Ketlen Souza. Jauregui is 3-1 in the UFC, and has finished seven of her eleven wins via strikes, but she still hasn't beaten anyone of note. Souza's only had two UFC fights so far, but I'm actually more sold on her than I am on Jauregui. Jauregui is a sizable favorite, but I'll pick Souza to pull off the upset. Prediction: Souza via decision.
Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5) vs. Manuel Torres (15-2)
This fight should be a blast. Bahamondes has won four of his last five UFC fights, while Torres is 3-0 inside the octagon. Bahamondes is a finisher, but Torres has had ten straight fights end in the opening round. I would've picked Bahamondes to win this fight if it happened a year earlier, but after what Torres did to Chris Duncan, I have to pick the Mexican prospect in this one. Prediction: Torres via tko, round 2.
(5) Irene Aldana (15-7) vs. (8) Norma Dumont (11-2)
In the headlining prelim bout, former Bantamweight title challenger Irene Aldana will face Norma Dumont. It's a good and sensible fight, but I'm surprised to see it in this slot. Dumont is good, but she's also a decision machine. Ten of her thirteen fights have gone the distance, including eight in a row. Aldana is more of a finisher, and is clearly the better striker, but she's also inconsistent and has gone the distance in her last two fights. I'll pick her to win, but I'm not as confident as I'd like to be. Prediction: Aldana via decision.
Main Card (10/9c, PPV)
Ode Osbourne (12-7, 1 NC) vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez (16-2)
Ode Osbourne has lost three of his last four fights, while Rodriguez has one UFC fight to date. Despite that, this fight is opening the PPV portion of the card. If that's not telling about the state of this undercard, I don't know what is. Prediction: Rodriguez via tko, round 3.
Daniel Zellhuber (15-1) vs. Esteban Ribovics (13-1)
Like the PPV opener, this is a fun fight that shouldn't cost money to view. Zellhuber is 3-0 since dropping his UFC debut, but he's also gone the distance in four of his last five fights. Ribovics has finished 12 of his 13 wins and is 2-0 since dropping his own UFC debut, but I think Zellhuber will edge him out. Prediction: Zellhuber via decision.
(3) Brian Ortega (16-3, 1 NC) vs. (12) Diego Lopes (25-6)
Finally, a fight that is PPV quality. In the featured bout, former two-time Featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega will take on surging prospect Diego Lopes. They were initially slated into a short-notice co-main event slot for UFC 303, but Ortega got very sick the day of the fight and Lopes faced Dan Ige instead. Lopes took care of business, asked to fight on this card and the UFC granted him his wish.
Under normal circumstances, I'd lean towards picking Ortega to win. He's more proven, has a knack for pulling off insane comebacks and is a very slick grappler. However, he's had one foot out the door of the division for a minute now, and he's probably in it for the check in this fight. Lopes is dangerous as is, and I think he'll come through with the win. Prediction: Lopes via decision or late tko.
UFC Women's Flyweight Championship: (C) Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) vs. (1) Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1)
It's been a year-and-a-half since Valentina Shevchenko lost her title to Alexa Grasso, yet I still don't think Grasso is better than her. Grasso did better than expected in their first fight, but Shevchenko was winning until making a telegraphed, fatal flaw that cost her. She was up on the scorecards through four rounds of their rematch, but lost a weird 10-8 round in the fifth, resulting in a split draw. Now they're fighting again, and I still think Shevchenko should win. And yet, maybe Grasso just has her number? Regardless, I can't shake my gut feeling, and I'll pick Shevchenko to come back and get the victory. Prediction: Shevchenko via decision.
UFC Bantamweight Championship: (C) Sean O'Malley (18-1, 1 NC) vs. (1) Merab Dvalishvili (17-4)
In the main event, Sean O'Malley will defend his Bantamweight title against the Merab Dvalishvili. It's a weird choice to headline a card that's supposedly dedicated to Mexican fans, but it's a good fight nonetheless. O'Malley is a great striker, while Dvalishvili is a relentless grappler who constantly stays active and goes for takedowns. Dvalishvili has never been finished, sans a loss after the final bell where he was ruled to have lost via submission with no time left. It was a weird ending that I still don't understand, but he's gone on to win ten straight fights since then.
My head says that O'Malley will do his thing and come away with a decision win, but a part of me wonders if Merab is the one that can send him to deep waters and get it done late. I can't see Merab getting a finish here, but if he can keep his chin intact and take O'Malley down, things could get very interesting. Screw it, I'll go with my gut and pick the upset. Prediction: Dvalishvili via decision.
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