Rhiannon Dixon vs. Terri Harper: Big Fight Preview & Prediction
There will be no little relief in both camps that Rhiannon Dixon and Terri Harper will be allowed to do their thing on Saturday night at Canon Medical Arena in Sheffield.
Dixon and Harper were originally scheduled to play a supporting role to the likes of Dalton Smith and Johnny Fisher. But after injuries to both Smith and Fisher curtailed those plans, and multiple date and venue changes as a consequence, there was some doubt if the WBO world lightweight title fight would even see the light of day. A victim of circumstance. But thankfully, not only has Dixon and Harper survived, but it is now the main event this coming Saturday. The spectacle and the feel of the fight will be a whole lot better for it.
It is a fight of much intrigue. And will almost certainly be decided by who is catching who at the right time. Will Harper be too experienced for the former white-collar fighter at this stage of her still-developing career? Or is Dixon catching Harper when she is on the slide? In truth, we will only know the answer to those questions once the first bell has chimed.
Harper might well be in the desperation mode of her career. Another defeat at this level could see the Denaby fighter facing an uncertain future. It will be extremely difficult to see where Harper goes if the former two-weight world champion suffers a second defeat on the bounce. Especially if it comes in the same manner as what Sandy Ryan inflicted on her back in March at the Sheffield Arena. Harper retired on her stool after three rounds that couldn't have gone any worse for her. She was never in the fight, and that performance was more than a touch concerning for the Harper faithful.
But at 27, Harper can hardly be considered a washed-up fighter. But I do wonder if she has now found her level, and her peers have simply caught her up and just passed her by. That one-sided defeat prompted the Harper inner circle to move her from welterweight back down to lightweight. They are confident that we will see the very best version of Terri Harper at a lighter weight. If so, the pre-fight odds heavily favouring a Dixon victory could be very well off the mark.
Rhiannon Dixon has improved steadily and impressively since turning professional in 2019 after a handful of white-collar fights. In only ten pro fights, Dixon has collected Commonwealth, European, and World honours. And will surely only get better. But will Harper be too much too soon for her?
It is a fight deserving of that lofty headline status. The compact Arena will be heavily Terri Harper territory. The atmosphere could be something very special and a welcomed boost for women's boxing on a weekend when the female side of the sport takes centre stage once again.
Dixon and Harper both bring plenty to the table. A win for either fighter wouldn't totally surprise me. Anything is possible, but in making a prediction, you have to go with what is probable. You could argue that there are doubts surrounding both fighters. But for me, I have more doubts about Terri Harper.
I am not convinced that Harper has ever been the same since her fight with Natasha Jonas in 2020. Her confidence seems fragile at best. The devastating defeats to Alycia Baumgardner and Sandy Ryan would have taken away even more of her self-belief you can safely assume. But there have also been disappointing performances in between those two debilitating setbacks. The occasional flashes of brilliance that too often flattered to deceive. Even the wins haven't fully convinced. Moving up and down in weight is an indication that they are trying to stumble on something that works. After moving up to super-welterweight and then dropping all the way back to lightweight, the body, at some point, you would suspect will say enough is enough. Boxing history tells us that kind of process rarely works.
Harper is quite right when she says she has the greater experience of the two. And that might be crucial to her chances of victory. If Harper is still competitive in the second half of the fight, that greater experience could be the tipping point in her favour. Terri Harper is by far the best opponent Rhiannon Dixon has faced. A win would make her a three-weight world champion, and it might even save her career. If the mind and body don't fail her, Harper is more than capable of winning. But I'm not convinced that she will.
Dixon is the fighter who comes into the fight full of confidence and with momentum, and she is the fighter seemingly on the way up. While Harper is perceived to be on the way down. She has said, "This is it." If Harper loses again, it might be.
A fast start is crucial, maybe even pivotal, for a successful first defence of Dixon's WBO world lightweight bauble. If the Crolla prodigy takes away the already fragile confidence of Harper and silences the hostile crowd, in those crucial early stages, the chances of a Dixon victory will rise significantly. But she might need a little patience and be mindful of not going too hard too soon. Harper rallied bravely in that brutal fight with Jonas in 2020 to save her titles with a strong 10th round. Dixon must not use too much of her gas tank in the first half of the fight.
Dixon is still a work in progress and has been guilty of rushing her work, often neglecting her impressive and heavy southpaw jab, and not working herself into range at times. A weapon that is heavy and highly effective when she does decide to use it. Against Harper, she might need it. And a touch of patience also. Dixon can also work the body very well. Body shots brought about her only stoppage victory in ten professional fights against Vicky Wilkinson last year. If Harper is weight-drained or somewhere near, those tactics might well work again. Either way, the body of Harper will surely be a target.
The pre-fight odds are a little insulting to Harper. Dixon is 1/5 to win. I think Harper is unfairly being written off in some quarters, and I do think it is a much closer fight than many think. But I do believe Harper is up against it. Since that titanic fight with Jonas four years ago, I just think she has been swimming against the tide in many ways. Her career has been treading water somewhat, and she hasn't quite hit the heights that were once expected of her. But a win over Dixon will change everything for her. A desperate fighter is a dangerous fighter. If Harper gets a good start, she will take some catching. There is certainly a route for victory for Harper.
But I believe the Warrington fighter will secure the biggest win of her career to date. It might not be as easy as the odds suggest, and she might have to dig very deep to win. A late stoppage can't be ruled out, but I think Dixon will win a hard-fought points decision in a fight that will undoubtedly shine a positive light on their side of the sport.
Photo Credit: Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing
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