Silverado Country Club (North Course) - Napa, CA The PGA Tour is back this week as the fall swing season begins with the Procore Championship this week at Silverado Country Club in Napa, CA. https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_wbLqSIxrm/?utm_s…
Par 72, 7166 yards, most golfers should reach all the Par 5s in two, birdiefest especially if the course softens up, 6/10 Par 4s are 400-450 yards (and another is 453), two of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, tree lined tight fairways are hilly with a lot of roll and there are bunkers guarding the landing areas, driving accuracy is lower here than tour average (~47% vs. 62%), two cuts of rough which is not very penal with the first cut of rough being minuscule and easy to hit out of, resort course so the Kentucky bluegrass rough won't get higher than 2.5 inches, there are several doglegs and missing on the wrong side of the fairway could be tougher to work around, large trees throughout the course are sporadic and not bunched together but they're very tall and towering, firm average sized bentgrass with POA greens, slightly elevated greens with some slope and heavy undulation, green side bunkers guarding the front of most greens with some tightly mowed runoff areas
Tournament Notes
Formerly called the Safeway Open and Fortinet Championship
This course has hosted this event since 2015
Putting is completely insignificant here
A lot of the Korn Ferry Tour grads are in the field for the first time this week
Seven of the last ten winners have been good ball strikers who typically are lousy putters (Max Homa two years ago was pretty good on both)
16-18 are three of the five easiest holes on the course so we can see some interesting finishes here
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (19.3%), 100-125 yards (18.7%), 125-150 yards (18.6%)
Field
144 golfers - Pretty lousy field but better than I expected it to be with some decent players at the top of the board
Defending Champion: Sahith Theegala (-21)
Runner Up Last Year: S.H. Kim (-19)
Players
Corey Conners: 9800: +1400 - Feels like this course maps out perfectly for him, MC,13,MC,30 finishes here, 22,50,25,10,27,9,20,6,26,13,44,38,25,13,18 finishes in his last 15 events, 2nd in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 64th in Driving Distance, 12th in Good Drives Gained, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 21st in Proximity 100-125 yards, 57th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 103rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 58th in SG: ARG, 51st in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
Luke Clanton: 9500: +2200 - Even though he's an amateur with only 22 rounds he's still first in my model, first time playing this event, 5,MC,37,2,10,41 finishes in his PGA Tour starts, 5th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 21st in Driving Distance, 5th in Good Drives Gained, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 56th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 73rd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 122nd in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
JJ Spaun: 9000: +2800 - My old DFS darling that pops in my model this week, 11,59,MC,9,MC,41,MC,55 finishes here, playing elite golf lately in lousy events with 3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last five events, 1st in Approach, 59th in SG: OTT, 61st in Driving Distance, 28th in Good Drives Gained, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 11th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 8th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 93rd in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdie+ Gained
Mac Meissner: 8000: +5000 - Has played solid golf lately with three T20s in his last four events, 12,59,16,20,MC,MC,57,5,MC,MC,10,MC,26,23,53 finishes in his last 15 events, first time playing this event, 30th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 62nd in Driving Distance, 26th in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 81st in Proximity 100-125 yards, 29th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 13th in Proximity 200+ yards, 29th in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained
Jhonattan Vegas: 7800: +5500 - Won pretty recently at the 3M Open at the end of July and qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, 52,56,53,MC,10 finishes here, 40,61,1,20,25,27,MC,23,MC,36,MC,60,22 finishes in his last 13 events, 13th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 10th in Driving Distance, 8th in Good Drives Gained, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 27th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 60th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 45th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 87th in SG: ARG, 108th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Proximity 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds (including Korn Ferry Tour stats)
DraftKings/Betting Notes
There will be a lot of football money in play this week and ownership will be heavier concentrated, so there's a lot of good ways to differentiate from the field
This event (and the entire swing season for that matter) sucks, but someone has to win it...the money's in the crumbs!
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