The 2024 AFL season wasn't a lot of fun for Richmond fans. Aside from an Easter Sunday surprise against Sydney and a road victory over the Crows in Round 13, they lost all of their games by an average of 41.5 points. Woof. As the Tigers prepare to reshape their roster during a crucial offseason, I've broken the task at hand into three phases - trading players, trading picks and draft targets. If they play their cards right by following this blueprint with some smart, savvy maneuvering, there is optimism for Richmond's future.
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PHASE ONE - PLAYERS
As Richmond's 2-21 season unfolded it became clear that players were going to ask out in the offseason. Shai Bolton, Liam Baker and Daniel Rioli are the three biggest names who have expressed a desire to play elsewhere in 2025, while the future of Jack Graham and fellow out-of-contract Tigers, Noah Cumberland, Kamdyn McIntosh and Thomson Dow is still unclear. Adem Yze and his fellow shot callers face an arduous task in the coming months - trying to turn over a new leaf at the footy club without axing too many of their recent premiership heroes in one summer. It's important to keep some of their established veterans around to assist the next generation, but offloading the players who have already asked out can help the Tigers secure foundational pieces for their list rebuild.
Jack Graham compensation
Jack Graham OUT; Pick 25~ IN
Let's start with Jack Graham, who is still yet to announce his intentions for season 2025. West Coast reportedly tabled a healthy four-year contract to the 26-year-old and his departure from Punt Road seemed to be a formality. However, the Tigers have recently made a counter-offer (believed to be shorter than West Coast's deal) in an attempt to keep Graham in yellow and black. For the sake of this exercise, let's say Graham does decide to join the Eagles and the compensation pick Richmond receives will fall near the start of the second round - approximately around pick 25.
Trade 1 - Fremantle
Shai Bolton OUT; Pick 10, 17 & 2025 2nd (via FREO) IN
Thanks to their negotiating last summer, the Fremantle Dockers enter the offseason armed with four of the top 27 selections in the 2024 draft. On paper, it should be relatively easy for both parties to come to an agreement, although you can expect them to haggle over what Shai Bolton is exactly worth. While Bolton's form dipped slightly this season, the WA-born forward has kicked 108 goals in the last three seasons and has proven himself as a match-winning talent that would complement the Dockers' array of tall forwards. Contracted until the end of the 2028 season, Richmond will seek multiple first-round picks to be fairly compensated for their game-changing talent and landing Bolton has quickly become priority No. 1 for Freo this offseason. They could haggle with future selections or perhaps the Dockers will be willing to part ways with #9 to ensure they keep all of their selections for next year. Convincing Richmond to take #10 and #17 for Shai and throwing in a second-rounder to sweeten the deal feels like a fair trade in my eyes.
Image from foxsports.com.au
Trade 2 - Gold Coast
Daniel Rioli & Pick 57 OUT; Pick 6 IN
With Bolton out the door, the next player in the cue is Daniel Rioli with a trade between Richmond and Gold Coast seemingly straightforward. I would argue that sacrificing #6 is too high a price for the Suns to pay for Rioli, however the club has identified his drive and pace of the halfback line as an urgent need if they want to break through for a maiden finals appearance. Rioli brings that to the club in spades, having previously spent eight seasons in the same role under Hardwick's tutelage during Richmond's triple-premiership era. Flicking back a fourth-rounder as to help Gold Coast accumulate late picks in anticipation of a Leo Lombard bid should see this trade become one of the first deals completed when the trade period commences in October.
Trade 3 - West Coast
Liam Baker and Pick 10 OUT; Pick 3 IN
Two down, one to go. While the Dockers may opt to make a play for Liam Baker, I believe he's best suited to land at West Coast - bringing with him a versatile skill set and 128 games of experience that includes two premiership wins. Baker is exactly the type of player who can assist the Eagles in their climb from the bottom of the ladder and if they can be fairly compensated, the 3rd overall selection may also be on the table. West Coast would be smart to ask for #6 and Baker in return for #3, but the Tigers would ideally love to hold a trio of picks within the first six selections. Offering up #10 instead would still leave the Eagles with multiple selections in the middle of the first round (following a projected Tom Barrass trade) while helping them land an established player who can fill a void across multiple positions right away. West Coast may play hardball and instead offer the pick they acquire for Tom Barrass (13-18 range) in a straight swap for Baker, although my proposed deal feels like a win-win for both clubs.
PHASE TWO - PICKS
After moving on four dual premiership players, Richmond's draft hand for 2024 would look like this - 1, 3, 6, 17, 21, 25~, 29, 39, 41, 47, 66 & 73. It's fair to assume that the Tigers won't want to use all 12 draft picks and some further haggling can help them snare top-tier talent at the pointy end of this year's draft, while also improving their hand for 2025.
Trade 4 - Greater Western Sydney
Pick 17 OUT; Picks 34, 49, 52 & 70 IN
While this deal may seem complex, effectively the Giants are swapping out one second, two-thirds and a fourth to land another late first-rounder. By the time bids have come into effect #17 will likely slide back into the 20's, but owning another early-ish selection in what is being lauded as a loaded draft class should appeal to Greater Western Sydney. Their talent-laden list boasts more than a handful of exciting youngsters, so there's no desperate need for the Giants to use 3-5 picks in the upcoming draft. Instead, snaring a pair of top-20 (ish) talents could help them maintain their consistent success and ultimately help them win the club's first-ever premiership. From Richmond's standpoint, they have enough draft capital at the top of the order to part ways with #17 and adding picks in the later rounds is all part of the grand plan...
Image from nine.com.au
Trade 5 - Brisbane
Pick 25~, 39, 41, 49, 52, 66 & 73 (equivalent of pick 4) OUT; Pick 15 and 2025 1st (via BRIS) IN
No matter how the rest of their finals campaign unfolds, Brisbane is well aware of their goal this offseason - match any bid for father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft. Much like his brother Will in 2022, a bid is widely expected to come for Levi within the first few picks of the draft and the Lions will need to stockpile late selections to ensure they can pair the Ashcroft bros together. They can accomplish that with this theoretical deal by combining their two late picks (#53 and #69) with half a dozen picks from Richmond to own 2509 points on the draft value index - or in Lamen's terms, the equivalent of pick 2.
Parting with two first-round selections may seem like a lot to cough up for one draft prospect, but Richmond owns a powerful tool in any potential negotiations as the owner of the first overall selection. An unofficial handshake agreement between the two clubs could see the Tigers bypass a bid for Ashcroft at #1, making Levi even cheaper for the Lions. Should a bid come at #2 instead of #1, then Brisbane has the opportunity to match the asking price while still holding enough draft points for a potential second-round bid on academy midfielder Sam Marshall. Again, Richmond may face a tall task convincing Brisbane to give up two first-rounders for these late picks, but if they have to add a future selection to balance out the deal, I still think it can work effectively for everyone involved.
Trade 6 - Essendon
Picks 29, 34, 47, & 70 (equivalent of pick 9) OUT; 2025 1st (via ESS) IN
I'll admit, this last one is pretty ambitious with Essendon likely to laugh in Richmond's face when they ask for their 2025 first-rounder. I tried to think of clubs who A) need a handful of late picks to match potential bids and B) are backing themselves to improve their ladder position next season. Gold Coast and Adelaide entered my thinking, but I kept coming back to the Bombers. After flirting with a finals berth for the past few seasons only to finish with unfulfilled September dreams, the Dons will back themselves in to improve their ladder position in 2025 and push their future first-rounder into the teens.
Their main focus in this draft will revolve around landing a gun talent and #8 and matching a bid for electrifying small forward, Isaac Kako. Kicking 28 goals from 16 matches with the Calder Cannons and Vic Metro in 2024, Kako is EXACTLY what Essendon's forward line is missing and the livewire small forward is expected to receive a bid in the back half of the first round. Once again, Richmond owns a draft pick in his projected range and if the Tigers ensure the Bombers that a bid won't come at #15, it could help push this proposed trade over the line.
PHASE THREE - THE DRAFT
Six trades later and here's the damage for Richmond:
OUT: Daniel Rioli, Shai Bolton, Liam Baker, Jack Graham, 29, 39, 41, 47, 57, 66, 73 (1 second, 3 thirds, 3 fourths)
IN: 3, 6, 15, ESS 2025 1st, BRIS 2025 1st, FREO 2025 2nd
In summary, the Tigers have traded four players and seven additional picks in order to net FIVE first-round draft picks and another second-rounder. Following a stellar period in the club's history, it's clear they are going to need a new generation of stars and leaders to help them ascend back up the ladder. Of course, acquiring the picks is only half of the equation and owning early selections doesn't instantly translate to success. Richmond has plenty of homework to do on the 2024 crop of draftees to ensure they bring the best possible players to Punt Road.
Armed with three of the first six picks, the Tigers are in a luxurious position at the top of the order. With no Harley Reid sitting atop the order as the consensus top selection for 2024, multiple players are expected to be in the mix to hear their name called first on draft night. Ranking dead last for clearances this season and second last for total disposals, it's obvious that Richmond needs to find midfielders for the future - putting talents such as Jagga Smith, Murphy Reid, Josh Smilie, Harvey Langford and Finn O'Sullivan firmly in the mix. The Tigers have been able to audition most of these teenagers through their VFL program in the late part of the season and with a number of gun midfield talents to choose from, I expect the Tigers to target a pair of accumulators with #1 and #3.
Personally, I'd want to pair the skillsets of Jagga Smith and Harvey Langford at Tigerland, but any combination of the aforementioned MID's should make Richmond fans happy. Should one of these talents slide to #6 then they could walk away with three impressive midfield prospects from their first six selections, but they're going to need someone to kick too. I'd instead love to see Richmond target a key position talent with #6 after drafting midfielders early and the standout option in my eyes is Harry Armstrong. The Sandringham prospect is viewed as the best key forward in the class of 2024 after kicking 32 goals from 12 games with the Dragons and Vic Metro. In recent times, we've seen Jack Riewoldt, Shai Bolton, Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch do most of the work in front of goal for the Tigers and it's possible that they'll enter next season with NONE of those players on their list. The urgency to find a competent key forward is real, making Armstrong a decent chance to wind up in yellow and black once draft night concludes.
With their early picks gone, the club can take a best-available approach with their remaining selections. At #15, it would be wise to target another key position talent with Alix Tauru aka 'The Flying Viking' one to watch. Vaulting himself into first-round calculations, Tarau captured recruiters' attention as a high-flying, intercepting tall defender and adding him as a key pillar down back will appeal to Richmond's list management team. Perhaps they'll opt to add more firepower in front of goal, making classy forwards Cooper Hynes or Joe Berry a priority should they still be on the board. As the owners of #21 (the first pick on day two of the draft), Richmond has the opportunity to potentially trade back from this spot and net some later picks for players who fall down the order. If they hold the pick, then expect to see strong-bodied key forward Jonty Faull, hard-running outside midfielder Christian Moraes or versatile tall Matt Whitlock enter their thinking.
Image from heraldsun.com.au
It will be hard to find positivity with Richmond in the coming seasons as their list continues to evolve under Adem Yze. However, if they can follow this blueprint in the offseason and land a quartet of first-round talents, whilst arming themselves with multiple early selections in next year's draft as well then there will be some hope. Nailing these aforementioned picks will be the most important part of their rebuild, but there are always diamonds in the rough to be found if you look closely enough.
Players who are crying out for more opportunities at their current club, or those who have already been delisted this offseason could boost the Tigers and fill out the rest of their roster. They'd be wise to target players like Will Brodie, Riley Bonner, Brandin Parfitt, Lachlan Gollant, Darcy Macpherson, Marty Hore and Nick Hind - just to highlight a few. The kids they draft will become their future, but surrounding them with the right mix of veterans and role players could lead to Richmond making a surprise climb up the ladder in the not-so-distant future. It'll be hard work, although if they can execute a handful of these hypothetical deals they won't stay anchored to the bottom of the ladder for long.
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