Cory Sandhagen (3.50) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (1.30)
Sandhagen is 10-3 in UFC, 17-4 overall. Last 5: L-L-W-W-W
Nurmagomedov is 5-0 in UFC, 17-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Sandhagen (32) is on a streak of three consecutive main event wins in a row with the latest of those coming over Rob Font (decision) in August, building on previous successes against Yadong Song (KO) and Marlon Vera (decision). The former snapped a two fight losing streak that had seem him come up short in two very competitive fights with elite BW talents T.J. Dillashaw (decision) and Petr Yan (decision) in the second half of 2021. 1-2 in 2021 having made a real statement with a spectacular flying knee KO of Frankie Edgar inside 30 seconds at the start of the year. That was his second big performance in a row having finished Marlon Moraes with a spinning wheel kick and follow up punches in his first UFC main event booking. Suffered his only other UFC setback in a really disappointing display against former UFC BW Champion Aljamain Sterling, who submitted him with minimal fuss inside 90 seconds. Starting earning the big fights after going a perfect 3-0 in 2019, picking up two big wins over Raphael Assuncao (decision) and John Lineker (decision) as well as a dominant performance over short notice replacement Mario Bautista (submission). Fought through some real adversity against Iuri Alcantara in 2018, showing incredible hard to survive a fully locked in armbar before rallying to win via KO in the second round. Finished Austin Arnett in his UFC debut, overwhelming his opponent with an array of strikes towards the end of the second round. Received the call to the big show after going 4-1 in UFC feeder organisation RFA/LFA. One other pro loss to UFC's Jamall Emmers (decision) up a weight class at FW. Wins fights in a mixture of fashions, very well rounded. Elusive on the feet and generally performs best as a matador against aggressive fighters. A tall BW standing at 5'11, which is related to his questionable takedown defence. High IQ fighter. Trains at Elevation Fight Team.
Nurmagomedov (28) faced a little bit of adversity for the first time - getting dropped in round one - but still managed to recover to earn a unanimous decision over the debuting Bekzat Almakhan in March. He's now made it to main event status having won his first five UFC fights; the best of those wins came at the beginning of last year when he knocked out Raoni Barcelos in the first round. 2022 featured dominant wins over Nathan Maness (decision) and Brian Kelleher (submission). Debuted in the UFC at the beginning of 2021, submitting Sergey Morozov in the second round. A highly touted cousin of current UFC LW Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov who has won all 17 professional MMA fights since debuting at the end of 2016. 5-0 in Fight Nights Global and 2-0 in PFL. Good career wins over UFC veteran Saidyokub Kakhramonov (decision), Fatkhidin Sobirov (14-5-1), Wagner Lima (16-8-1), Taras Gryckiv (19-8) and Sidemar Honorio (13-8). Strong wrestler - as you would expect with his lineage - but also a much more well-rounded fighter compared to his more famous cousin. 8/17 wins by decision. Trains at Eagles MMA and American Top Team.
I'm sure no-one has been lining up to fight Nurmagomedov so credit to Sandhagen for taking this fight, especially because it's a bad match-up that will likely see him on his back for large periods.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by decision.
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Shara Magomedov (1.40) vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk (3.00)
Magomedov is 2-0 in UFC, 13-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Oleksiejczuk is 7-6-1 in UFC, 19-8-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-L
Magomedov (30) has a quick turnaround following a third round KO finish of Antonio Trocoli on the June Saudi Arabia show. He showed some takedown defence holes in his debut against Bruno Silva at UFC 294 but also showed what a dangerous striker he is in a unanimous decision win. Signed after looking like a killer on the Russian regional scene and against some pretty good competition too with wins over Mikhail Ragozin (22-6), Sergey Martynov (18-5), Joel dos Santos (17-10) and Mikhail Allakhverdian (11-4). Kickboxing background (owns a win over UFC veteran Mike Mathetha). Dynamic striker with an excellent KO rate (11/13 wins by KO). Marketable look and fighting style. Legally blind on one eye, which will likely make it difficult for him to get athletic commissions in North America to clear him to compete. Has had some legal issues in Russia. Trains at GOR MMA.
Oleksiejczuk (29) has had a rough 2024 so far, getting submitted inside half a round by good competition in Michel Pereira and Kevin Holland. He is now 3-3 since dropping down to MW; his wins have all been dominant first round destructions of Chidi Njokuani (KO), Sam Alvey (KO) and Cody Brundage (KO) with the other loss coming against Caio Borralho (submission). Finished his 4-3-1 spell as a LHW with a narrow loss to Dustin Jacoby (decision) at UFC 272. 2-0 in 2021 with wins over Shamil Gamzatov (KO) and Modestas Bukauskas (decision). 5/6 UFC losses by submission with the others coming against Ovince St.Preux and Jim Crute. Beat Khalil Rountree (decision) at UFC 219 as a big underdog before the result was changed to a no contest due to a failed drug test. Returned from his suspension to pick up first round KO finishes of Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov (KO). The Pole entered the UFC riding a nine fight win streak with notable wins over Bellator veteran Lukasz Klinger (11-6-1) and Riccardo Nosiglia (8-4). Made his MMA debut at the start of 2014, picking up a couple of losses to Jan Kwiaton (6-2) and Marcin Wojcik (19-9) in his first year of competition. 14/19 wins by KO, looks very powerful since moving down to MW.
Magomedov will have the advantage on the feet whereas Oleksiejczuk's path to victory will be to get takedowns and use his powerful ground and pound. Low confidence pick.
Prediction: Magomedov by decision.
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Marlon Vera (2.25) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (1.66)
Vera is 15-8 in UFC, 23-9-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-L
Figueiredo is 12-3-1 in UFC, 23-3-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-W-W
Vera (31) was completely outclassed by Sean O'Malley (decision) in his BW title shot at UFC 299, which was a rematch of a fight from 2020 that he had won via first round KO. He put himself at the front of the queue to challenge for the belt after beating Pedro Munhoz (decision) at UFC 292, although it was the fact that he is the only man to defeat O'Malley that really earned him this shot. Prior to the Munhoz win he had a four-fight win streak snapped in a difficult stylistic main event match-up with Cory Sandhagen (decision) last year. Enjoyed a tremendous 2022, emerging victorious in his first two UFC main events against Rob Font (decision) and Dominick Cruz (KO). Made the most of a big opportunity at UFC 268, knocking out Frankie Edgar with a front kick in the third round. 2-0 in 2021 having also avenged an earlier UFC loss to Davey Grant (decision). Losses against Yadong Song (decision) and Jose Aldo (decision) in 2020 either side of the O'Malley win. His rise began with five consecutive wins across 14 months starting in August 2018 - all finishes - against Andre Ewell (KO), Nohelin Hernandez (submission), Frankie Saenz (KO), Guido Cannetti (submission) and Wuliji Buren (KO). Before that he had back-to-back setbacks against John Lineker (decision) and Douglas de Andrade (decision) with both defeats coming in enemy territory in Brazil. Notable wins early in his UFC career over Brian Kelleher (submission) and Brad Pickett (KO). Competed on TUF Latin America 1, beating Henrique Briones by KO in the quarter finals before having to leave the competition due to injury. Now a completely different fighter to the one who debuted back in 2014 and lost to Marco Beltran (decision). Long, lean BW at 5'8. Well-rounded offensive weapons, dangerous with strikes and BJJ (which offsets his poor wrestling, typical of fighters with his build). Good finisher, 16/21 wins inside the distance (8 KO, 8 SUB) including 11/15 in the UFC. One of the toughest guys around, yet to be finished in his MMA career. Excellent cardio, very well suited for five round fights. Trains at Team Oyama.
Figueiredo (36) submitted a former BW Champion in Cody Garbrandt at UFC 300, building on the successful start he made to his UFC BW career against Rob Font (decision) in December. The decision to move up came after losing his FLW title to Brandon Moreno (KO) at UFC 283 in what was the final of a four-fight series that saw him go 1-2-1. Reclaimed the FLW title from Moreno (submission) at UFC 270, narrowly earning the judges favour in a highly competitive bout having originally lost the belt (decision) to the same opponent at UFC 263. As Champion he defended his title twice; easily submitting Alex Perez in the first round at UFC 255 and battling to a draw with Moreno in their original clash a month later at UFC 256. Won the vacant UFC FLW title against Joseph Benavidez in July 2020, choking his opponent unconscious after a knockdown on the feet and vicious follow up ground and pound. Blew a previous opportunity to become FLW Champion at the beginning of the same year, missing weight before going on to knock Benavidez out in the second round. One other UFC setback at the beginning of 2019 against Jussier Formiga (decision), other wins since then against Alexandre Pantoja (decision) and Tim Elliott (submission) put him in a position to fight for the belt. Before the Formiga setback he had been tearing through the FLW division, finishing John Moraga (KO), Joseph Morales (KO), and Marco Beltran (KO) and picking up a narrow decision over Jarred Brooks (decision) since debuting halfway through 2017. The Brazilian has an impressive finishing rate with 18/23 wins inside the distance (9 KO, 9 SUB). His best regional win came over Denis Oliveira Fontes (22-6). Previously a member of the Marajo Brothers Team with Iuri Alcantara but now has his own Team Figueiredo camp.
Figueiredo has made a great start in the BW division. In a five-rounder I'd favour Vera but his tendency to start slow is a much bigger disadvantage in three round fights.
Prediction: Figueiredo by decision.
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Tony Ferguson (5.00) vs. Michael Chiesa (1.18)
Ferguson is 15-8 in UFC, 25-10 overall. Last 5: L-L-L-L-L
Chiesa is 11-7 in UFC, 16-7 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-L-L
Ferguson (40) has now tied B.J. Penn's record of seven losses in a row following the latest setback against Paddy Pimblett (decision) at UFC 296. It's been a sad downward spiral for a once elite fighter; last year he was also choked him unconscious by Bobby Green at UFC 291. In 2022 he started fights with Nate Diaz and Michael Chandler well before losing the former by submission and the latter by brutal KO. The bad run started when he lost an opportunity to win the interim LW title against Justin Gaethje (KO) at UFC 249, which was the sort of prolonged beating that changes career trajectories. Other losses since then against Beneil Dariush (decision) and former LW Champion Charles Oliveira (decision). The Gaethje loss snapped a 12-fight winning streak that stretched back eight years. So unlucky not to get his chance to face retired LW Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov with the fight falling through an incredible five times. Won the interim LW title when he beat Kevin Lee by submission at UFC 216 but you feel that he has been robbed of the tail end of his prime due to injuries, only fighting once in each of 2019 (KO win over Donald Cerrone), 2018 (KO win over Anthon Pettis) and 2017 (submission of Lee). The long win streak included other victories over Rafael dos Anjos (decision), Edson Barboza (submission), Josh Thomson (decision), Gleison Tibau (submission) and Abel Trujillo (submission). Only other UFC defeat was a decision loss to Michael Johnson in a fight that he lasted until the final bell despite suffering a broken arm in the first round. Winner of TUF 13, blasting through the competition with four consecutive KOs including over Ramsey Nijem in the final. Two losses to regional talent early in his career. Boasted an iron chin during his prime, excellent cardio. Wrestling background, very good at latching onto chokes from failed takedowns (three UFC Brabo chokes). 20/25 wins inside the distance (12 KO, 8 SUB). Fights out of Team Death Clutch.
Chiesa (36) has only fought once since 2021 - a first round submission loss to Kevin Holland at UFC 291 - which was his third loss in a row following other setbacks against ranked WWs in Sean Brady (decision) and Vicente Luque (submission). His last win was over Neil Magny (decision) in a main event at the beginning of 2021. 4-3 at 170 having started his time in the division with wins over Rafael dos Anjos (decision), Carlos Condit (submission) and Diego Sanchez (decision). Ended his LW run with back-to-back submission losses against Anthony Pettis and Kevin Lee, finishing with a 7-4 record in the division. It is difficult to believe he ever forced his body down to 155; he really filled out as a WW and has looked much stronger than fighters who have been competing in that weight class for some time. Catapulted himself into LW top 10 in 2015-16 with three straight wins over Mitch Clarke (decision), Jim Miller (submission) and Beneil Dariush (submission). Winner of a strong TUF 15, beating Al Iaquinta (submission) in the final. Other UFC wins over Francisco Trinaldo (decision), Colton Smith (submission) and Anton Kuivanen (submission). No shame in any of his UFC losses with the others being a submission defeat to Jorge Masvidal (and he had Masvidal in all sorts of trouble early on) and a doctor stoppage against Joe Lauzon (in a fight he was just starting to take over). Excellent BJJ, 11/18 wins by submission and absolutely lethal once on the back (5/6 UFC submissions by rear-naked choke, eight overall in his career) but also submitted in 5/7 losses. Excellent body lock takedowns from the clinch. Trains at Sikjitsu.
Both guys are clearly well passed their best but you feel like Ferguson is further gone, it's difficult to see him winning another UFC fight.
Prediction: Chiesa by submission in round 2.
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Mackenzie Dern (1.80) vs. Lupita Godinez (2.00)
Dern is 8-5 in UFC, 13-5 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-L
Godinez is 7-4 in UFC, 12-4 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Dern (31) is coming off losses in two tough stylistic fights against the two hardest hitters in the WSW division in Jessica Andrade (KO) and Amanda Lemos (decision). 1-1 last year having been extremely dominant in a main event decision victory over Angela Hill in May. Consistently fighting top competition, losing other main events against Xionan Yan (decision) and Marina Rodriguez (decision) in the last few years with a win over Tecia Torres (decision) in between. Put together a four-fight win streak to earn UFC main event status, picking up impressive submission victories over Nina Nunes, Randa Markos and Hannah Cifers and a comfortable decision win over Virna Jandiroba (decision). After taking time off for a pregnancy, she lost her first fight back against Amanda Ribas (decision) in October 2019 - the only other defeat of her professional career to date. Made a successful start to her UFC career in 2018, beating Ashley Yoder (decision) and Amanda Bobby Cooper (submission). Highly decorated BJJ competitor with an array of Gold medals in the worlds most prestigious BJJ competitions, 7/12 wins by submission in MMA. Started her MMA career in 2016 in Legacy Fighting Championship, going 4-0 under the Legacy/LFA banner before appearing once in Invicta FC. Beat UFC WFLW Montana De La Rosa (submission) in her second professional fight and she also has a solid regional win over Kaline Medeiros (9-6). Not completely out of her element on the feet, throws aggressively and without fear. Struggled to make 115 early in her career but not for some time now. Trains at Black House.
Godinez (30) had her four-fight win streak snapped by Virna Jandiroba (decision) in March. She was one of the busiest and most in-form fighter on the UFC roster last year, going 4-0 with the final of those wins over Tabatha Ricci (decision) at UFC 295. Other successes earlier in 2023 over Elise Reed (submission), Emily Ducote (decision) and Cynthia Calvillo (decision). Had a two-fight win streak snapped by Angela Hill (decision) in the second half of 2022 after two very assured performances against Loma Lookboonmee (decision) and Ariane Carnelossi (decision) in which she showcased her impressive offensive grappling skill set. Her first UFC win against Silvana Gomez Juarez (submission) was sandwiched in between losses against Jessica Penne (decision) in her UFC debut and in a short notice fight up at WFLW against Luana Carolina (decision). Graduated to the UFC having proved herself as one of the best WSWs on the North American regional scene - winning titles in each of her last two regional fights against Lindsay Garbatt (6-6) and another fighter now in the UFC in Vanessa Demopoulos (decision). 1-0 in both LFA and Combate Americas. 9/12 wins by decision. Trains at Titan MMA.
Godinez is the more well-rounded fighter but she does have a tendency to find ways to lose so it's hard to trust her.
Prediction: Dern by decision.
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Joel Alvarez (1.57) vs. Elves Brener (2.50)
Alvarez is 5-2 in UFC, 20-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-W
Brener is 3-1 in UFC, 16-4 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Alvarez (31) was a bit fortunate when a clash of heads indirectly led to him being able to submit Marc Diakiese last July. He's struggled to stay active of late, fighting only once in each calendar year since 2021 including a loss to LW contender Armen Tsarukyan (KO) in 2022. Earned that fight having won four in a row with the final of those a very impressive performance against Thiago Moises (KO), although he did miss weight for the contest - the second time in a row having also done so for his win over Alexander Yakovlev (submission). Other UFC wins over Joe Duffy (submission) and Danilo Belluardo (KO). Lost a very tough debut match-up against Damir Ismagulov (decision) in his UFC debut. Excellent BJJ (17/20 wins by submission). Picked up some decent wins while fighting on the less known South Europe regional MMA scene, beating Radu Maxim (10-3) and Alexandre Ribeiro (21-11-4). One other professional loss against Ali Abdulkhalikov (15-2) in his one appearance for M-1. Ridiculously big for the LW division at 6'3 and not skinny, likely to need to fight at WW eventually. Fights out of the little known Bandog Fight Club.
Brener (26) suffered his first UFC setback against Myktybek Orolbai (decision) in a fun back-and-forth contest at UFC 301. He made a really big impact when he arrived in the UFC last year, going 3-0 and finishing the year with a first round KO of Kaynan Kruschewsky in the UFC's previous visit to Brazil. Four months earlier he showed really impressive durability and toughness to come from behind and finish Guram Kutateladze (KO). Perhaps fortunate to have been awarded the decision in his UFC 284 debut against Zubaira Tukhogov. Arrived in the UFC as a submission specialist having finished 11 of his 13 regional wins by submission. Brazilian-born but has mainly competed on the little-known Portuguese MMA scene. Notable career wins over Alan Soares (9-2-1), Luan Anderson (9-3), career losses against Denis Silva (18-8), Sergey Andreev (13-8) and a fighter now on the UFC roster in Gabriel Santos (decision). Yet to be finished in his MMA career. Trains at Chute Boxe Diego Lima.
I think Brener has the toughness to drag Alvarez into deep waters and drown him.
Prediction: Brener by KO in round 3.
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Alonzo Menifield (2.87) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (1.44)
Menifield is 8-4-1 in UFC, 15-4-1 overall. Last 5: W-D-W-W-L
Murzakanov is 3-0 in UFC, 13-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Menifield (36) immediately charged in and ate a counter shot for his troubles in a 12-second KO loss to Carlos Ulberg in May. Prior to that he had gone undefeated in five; last year he comprehensively won the rematch with Jimmy Crute (submission) at UFC 290 after they had drawn their initial contest at UFC 284 and then gritted out a decision over Dustin Jacoby in December. His only other loss in his last nine was a disappointing performance against William Knight (decision). Other wins since 2021 over Misha Cirkunov, Askar Mozharov (KO), Ed Herman (decision) and Fabio Cherant (submission). 2020 was a down year which saw him suffer his first two UFC setbacks against Devin Clark (decision) and Ovince St.Preux (KO). Started his UFC career with very dominant first round KO finishes of Paul Craig and Vinicius Moreira. Signed after an eight second KO win over Dashawn Boatright (3-3) on the second season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. Also appeared on the first season of that show, beating UFC veteran Daniel Jolly by TKO when his opponent quit on the stool. 4-0 in UFC feeder league LFA/RFA after making his professional debut with Bellator (1-0). 13/15 wins inside the distance (10 KO), all coming in under 1.5 rounds - very dangerous in the early going but his heavily muscled frame means he can fade in the second half of fights. Trains at Saekson Muay Thai.
Murzakanov (35) fights for the first time in 15 months; we last saw him beat Dustin Jacoby by unanimous decision. He picked up two third round finishes in his first two UFC fights in 2022 - he looked to be clearly on his way to losing to Tafon Nchukwi in March before landing a flying knee KO but it was a much more convincing performance against Devin Clark (KO) in October. Earned a UFC contract with a big performance on the 2021 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, knocking out Matheus Scheffel (17-11-1) in the first round. Owns wins over UFC veterans Andre Muniz (KO) and Guto Innocente (decision), the latter in a 2-0 run in Brave FC that also saw him beat Mohammed Fakhreddine (16-5-2). Originally signed with the UFC back in 2017 but was released without fighting due to a USADA violation. On the short side for LHW (5'10) but thickly built. 9/13 wins by KO - all those on the regional scene coming in the first round. Trains at K Dojo Warrior Tribe.
I think Menfield's main avenue to victory is early but Murzakanov's tough and has proven he can get finishes in the second half of fights.
Prediction: Murzakanov by KO in round 2.
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Shamil Gaziev (1.40) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (3.00)
Gaziev is 1-1 in UFC, 12-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Mayes is 4-4-1 in UFC, 11-6-1 overall. Last 5: NC-L-W-L-W
Gaziev (34) was fast-tracked into a UFC main event for his second UFC fight but found himself outclassed by Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a fourth round stoppage loss. He looked outsanding in his debut at UFC 296, pressuring Martin Buday from the opening bell and eventually forcing the referee to step in due to unanswered strikes a minute into round two. Earned a UFC contract after submitting Greg Velasco (6-2) in the first round on the 2023 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. Arrived on the UFC radar after putting together a 2-0 run in Brave FC including a win over a UFC veteran in Darko Stosic (KO). His best career win is over another accomplished Russian HW Kirill Kornilov (15-2-1), which is the only one of his professional fights that has seen the scorecards. Other notable successes over Pavel Dailidko (8-2) and Grigoriy Ponomarev (6-3). 11/12 wins inside the distance (8 KO, 3 SUB). 9-2 as an amateur. Gigantic HW weighing in close to 265 lbs. Some question marks around his cardio having faded in the Rozenstruik and Kornilov fights. Fights out of KHK MMA Team.
Mayes (32) emerged victorious against Caio Machado (decision) in April. Last year he put on his most assured UFC performance to date in finishing Andrei Arlovski (KO) but it was sandwiched between losses to Augusto Sakai (decision) and Rodrigo Nascimento (decision) - the latter a rematch of an earlier UFC fight that he lost by submission. Had a decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab at UFC 277 overturned due to his opponent failing a drug test. Both other UFC wins came against low level HW competition; he finished Josh Parisian with ground and pound elbows at the end of 2021, which came just over a year after he picked up his first UFC won over Roque Martinez (decision). One other UFC loss against Ciryl Gane (submission) in his UFC debut. Finally successful in earning a contract following his third involvement on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2019, picking up a first round stoppage of Ricardo Prasel (13-5). Lost to UFC veteran Allan Crowder (KO) and beat TUF 30 competitor Mitchell Sipe (5-2) on earlier seasons of DWTNCS. 1-1 in RFA/LFA, although the loss was a DQ due to illegal strikes. Owns a regional win over UFC veteran Mohammed Usman (decision). 6/11 wins by KO. Trains at Bronx Hill MMA.
I expect Gaziev to use the same approach he did against Buday, pushing Mayes up against the fence and wearing his opponent down to achieve an eventual stoppage.
Prediction: Gaziev by KO in round 2.
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Sedriques Dumas (1.44) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (2.87)
Dumas is 2-2 in UFC, 9-2 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Tiuliulin is 1-4 in UFC, 10-9-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-L-L
Dumas (28) is looking to rebound from a first round KO loss to Nursulton Ruziboev in March. He picked up his first UFC wins over Cody Brundage (decision) and Abu Azaitar (decision) in the second half of last year, although neither were particularly good performances. Disappointed in his UFC debut in March, getting submitted by Josh Fremd in the second round. A standout performer on the 2022 season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, blasting out of the gate to submit top European prospect Matej Penaz (9-1) with a guillotine in just 47 seconds. Besides that the only other notable victory under his belt was against Aaron Highbaugh (11-6) when fighting for Jorge Masvidal's iFC promotion. 6/9 wins inside the distance (4 KO). Tall, lean build for the MW division (6'3). Went 9-1 as an amateur before turning pro in 2020.
Tiuliulin (36) has got a slightly longer leash than other fighters due to his willingness to take short notice bookings - as he did in a loss to Christian Leroy Duncan (KO) in November. 0-3 last year having lost earlier contests against Gregory Rodrigues (KO) and Jun Yong Park (submission). Lost his short notice UFC debut against fellow Russian Aliaskhab Khizriev (submission) in 2022 before returning to pick up his first and only UFC win over Jamie Pickett (KO) at UFC 279. I think it's fair to say he only received a UFC opportunity by being in the right place at the right time to help out on short notice; his regional career has been mediocre at best, although he did end with his best career win over Juscelino Ferreira (12-4) in the UAE Warriors organisation. Seemed to struggle in the better Russian regional organisations, going 1-2 in M-1 and 0-1 in ACB. Other career losses since 2017 against UFC veteran Ikram Aliskerov (submission), Jean Petrick (10-4), Ruslan Shamilov (13-5) and Mubaraksho Mubarakshoev (7-0). 9/10 wins by KO, finished in 7/9 losses (3 KO, 4 SUB). Trains at Evolve Gym.
It's difficult to have confidence in Dumas after how he's looked in the UFC so far but Tiuliulin is the very bottom of the MW barrel.
Prediction: Dumas by KO in round 1.
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Victoria Dudakova (1.57) vs. Sam Hughes (2.50)
Dudakova is 2-0 in UFC, 8-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Hughes is 3-5 in UFC, 8-6 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-L
Dudakova (25) remains undefeated after a win over Jinh Yu Frey (decision) at UFC 294. She had a little bit of luck in her UFC debut when Istella Nunes dislocated her arm when trying to defend a takedown. Signed following a decision win over Maria Silva (10-1) on 2022's Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. The Russian has been fighting professionally for three and a half years, picking up a pair of decent wins in that time over Kseniya Lachkova (11-7) and Marina Shutova (5-3-1). 6/8 wins inside the distance (4 SUB). 6-0 as an amatuer, including winning an IMMAF tournament.
Hughes (32) couldn't compete with the much more dynamic Yazmin Jauregui (decision) in February. She only fought once last year, overcoming a rough first round to comfortably win rounds two and three against the debuting Jacqueline Amorim. She picked up her first UFC wins in the first half of 2022 over Elise Read (KO) and Istela Nunes (decision) before dropping a fight to Piera Rodriguez (decision) later in the year. 0-2 in 2021 with losses against Loma Lookboonmee (decision) and Luana Pinheiro (decision). Thrown in the deep end in her short notice debut at UFC 256, although a first round KO loss to Tecia Torres is still a bad look considering Torres' poor finishing ability. 2-1 in LFA with the loss was a fourth round submission against UFC's Vanessa Demopoulos in a WSW title fight that she had been dominating before getting trapped in an unusual inverted triangle choke. Decent career wins over Danielle Hindley (4-3) and Lisa Maudlin (6-5). Trains at Catalyst MMA.
Dudakova feels like a hype train that is due for derailment at any point, I'm just not convinced Hughes is the one to do it.
Prediction: Dudakova by decision.
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Jai Herbert (1.72) vs. Rolando Bedoya (2.10)
Herbert is 2-4-1 in UFC, 12-5-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-D-L
Bedoya is 0-2 in UFC, 14-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-L
Herbert (36) went winless in two fights last year, having to settle for a draw with Ludovit Klein at UFC 286 when he was perhaps harshly deducted a point for a groin strike in the third round before losing to Fares Ziam (decision) a few months later. His only win in his last four was over Kyle Nelson (decision) in 2022, which came four months after a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria. His other UFC success was a fast win over Khama Worthy (KO) in the last quarter of 2021. Was well on course to pick up a very impressive debut win over Francisco Trinaldo in July 2020 but was caught and finished in the third round. One other UFC loss to Renato Moicano (submission). Graduated from Cage Warriors having gone 5-0 in the organisation, picking up their LW title when he beat Jack Grant (20-8) by third round KO in 2019 and defending it against UFC veteran Cain Carrizosa (KO). Owns other Cage Warriors wins over Erdi Karatas (9-5), Joe McColgan (8-3-1) and Steve O'Keefe (9-4). Previously fought for BAMMA where he was 3-1, suffering his only other career loss to former UFC WW Rhys McKee (KO). Knockout artist, 9/12 wins by KO. Long frame for the LW division (6'1). Trains at Renegade Jiu Jitsu.
Bedoya (27) did well in a gigantic step up in competition in his UFC debut, losing to Khaos Williams by split decision at UFC 288. However, he will have been disappointed in his losing performance in a much more winnable second fight with Kenan Song (decision). The Peruvian WW was ready to graduate after dominating his regional scene, going 7-1 in the top local promotion FFC with good wins over Pablo Dhorta (10-2), Mauricio Otalora (24-19), Enrique Granados (11-9) and Cristiano Estela (17-7). His only other professional setback came in his first fight for that organisation against Kevin Moreyra (10-3). 7/13 wins by decision and yet to be finished in his career. Fights out of Chute Boxe Academy.
I think this is a good match-up for Bedoya to pick up his first UFC win, Herbert will be declining now and he's always had defensive issues.
Prediction: Bedoya by decision.
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Jordan Vucenic (2.87) vs. Guram Kutateladze (1.44)
Vucenic makes his UFC debut, 13-2 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-W-W
Kutateladze is 1-2 in UFC, 12-4 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-L
Vucenic (28) jumps in on short notice to make his UFC debut; he departs Cage Warriors having gone 9-1 in the organisation including a spell as their FW Champion which he won against another guy now on the UFC roster in Morgan Charriere (decision). The one loss he suffered in Cage Warriors was to Paul Hughes (12-1) to lose his FW belt (he also has an earlier victory over him). Other good career wins over Steve Amiable (18-10), James Hendin (9-2), Tiziano Ferranti (9-1) and Simone D'Anna (10-5). One other career loss to Luke Ord (8-2-1). 6/13 wins by submission. Moving up to LW for this contest.
Kutateladze (32) has struggled to fight consistently since arriving in the UFC in 2020 and is now on a two-fight losing streak after Elves Brener came from behind to finish him with strikes in the third round last year. The first of those losses was a split decision in a very close fight with Damir Ismagulov in 2022. On the right side of another very close split decision against Mateusz Gamrot in his October 2020 UFC debut - a win that has aged very well with Gamrot going on to be a ranked LW. His final win on the regional scene was a KO of UFC veteran Felipe Silva in under a minute. 2-0 in Brave FC and 2-0 in Swedish regional promotion Superior Challenge. One other notable win over Erick da Silva (23-10). Setbacks at the start of his career against UFC veteran Oliver Enkamp (decision) and Pawel Kielek (9-7-2). 7/12 wins by KO. Part of the recent influx of Georgian fighters to arrive in the UFC. Fights out of the Allstars Training Center.
A big ask for Vucenic to step in against a very good opponent and up a weight class - I think the gulf in ability and size eventually leads to a stoppage.
Prediction: Kutateladze by KO in round 2.
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Mohammad Yahya (4.00) vs. Kaue Fernandes (1.25)
Yahya is 0-1 in UFC, 12-4 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Fernandes is 0-1 in UFC, 8-2 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Yahya (30) didn't make a great first impression at UFC 294, getting off barely any offence in a loss to Trevor Peek (decision). He earned the opportunity to become the first Emirati to compete in the UFC after going 7-1 for top Middle Eastern regional promotion UAE Warriors, including wins over Souhil Tahiri (6-4-1), Yazid Chouchane (10-4), Azouz Anwar (9-5) and Ramadan Noaman (11-6). 1-1 in a brief spell with Bellator earlier in his career. Career losses to Dan Collins (5-0), Gavin Hughes (10-4) and Hassan Talal (3-3). Kickboxing background, 7/12 wins by KO.
Fernandes (29) came out on the wrong side of a split decision against Marc Diakiese in his November UFC debut. He graduated to the UFC fresh off a 2-1 spell in LFA that saw him suffer a setback against Luann Sardinha (8-0-1) before rebounding with wins over Jose Arly (6-1) and Felipe Douglas (22-6). The rest of his regional career took place in Shooto Brazil where he picked up wins over Bruno Rodrigues (10-9), Jameson Oliveira (11-10-2), Evandro Barbosa (10-4) and Eduardo Santiago (5-3). 6/8 wins inside the distance (4 KO). Fights out of Nova Uniao.
Both guys need to prove they belong at this level and based on their regional achievements and debut performance I think Fernandes has a much better chance of achieving that.
Prediction: Fernandes by decision.
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