Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer
Main Card
Jared Cannonier vs. Ciao Borralho
It was a storm of the century last weekend. A category five storm of L's. I was inundated with Ls. By the end of Saturday night, I was using someone's front door as a raft to keep my head above a roiling sea of Ls. It was forty days and forty nights of Ls. After Joshua Culibao got held up by the judges inside the cage for his dub, the Ls started coming fast and furious. Then, too fast and furious. It was a night of Furiosa highway robberies, flimflams, and okie-dokes. When Izzy finally started piecing up DDP in the third round and into the fourth, it was like being a castaway marooned on a deserted isle and seeing a plane flying overhead – my salvation was close, a main event dub. But, with a minute and a half remaining in the fourth, a right hand clanged off the top of Izzy's dome, and I watched helplessly as the plane drifted toward the horizon, became but a pinpoint blemish in the sky, and eventually disappeared when DDP latched onto Izzy's neck.
I woke up on Sunday morning in a heap on the living room floor, coughing up Ls as my wife was giving me CPR. "Get your shit together. You're not getting out of going to my parents' house today," she said without a touch of sympathy. Before I could start feeling sorry for myself, there was a glimmer of hope. I remembered putting my money where my mouth wasn't and betting on DDP! My elation was short-lived, though. My Bovada account showed all zeros. How could that be? I was on hold with customer service when I realized my mistake. I had bet on a DDP decision. The phone fell from my hand. Now, here I am at T-Mobile, trying to get a new phone while I pick up the pieces and figure out where to go from here. 3-9, it tied the two-time mark for my worst night of picks since the WKO was founded in 2020. My three-year-old daughter out-picked me. SMDH. But that's okay because I got that Costco buck fiddy dog in me, and I'm still standing here screaming, "Fook the Free World!" Pickers pick, and bet I won't pick my way out!
(Looks at the next main event)
"D'oh!"
I didn't see this shit coming. Jared Cannonier vs. Ciao Borralho is a classic changing of the guard scrap, and more importantly, it's a complete an utter toss-up. I still have no idea what to make of the Head Nerd In Charge, Ciao Borralho. How good is he?
"I don't know, that's why we're asking you, buddy."
Hey, hey, hey! Simmer down. I ain't your buddy; I'm your homie, pal. Borralho is the Krang of the Fighting Nerds, a team of dweebs wearing spectacles who have developed a fringe science for kicking ass. Ciao Borralho, Jean Silva, Mauricio Ruffy, aka Brazilian Connor McGregor, and Carlos Prates, the man who made Li Jingliang look like a 1920s distressed damsel fainting in the arms of a Clark Gable hunk, are all members of the fighting nerds. If this group of dweebs rolls up on you, just hand over your math homework, book report, and science fair project for them to complete and walk away. If these guys are what constitute nerds these days, wtf are we?
When it comes to striking, Ciao Borralho is a gently used Lyoto Machida. Garage sell Lyoto. Last offer, take-it-or-leave-it-Lyoto Machida. Borralho is a mall Karate black belt with a red stripe. And I ain't talkin' Jamaican beer. "When ugly people stand next to a Red Stripe, they look beautiful. Hooray, beer!" Someone get Li Jingliang a Red Stripe. Anywho, Borralho has a bladed, in/out Karate style with a special move: A retreating counter-flying knee. This guy will fade from the pocket, then break into a flying knee as the opponent rushes forward. But overall, when it comes to Borralho's striking, I'm putting it on Layaway; I'm not fully buying it. I see holes like the dork on The Sixth Sense sees dead people. And Borralho's striking is full of them. He's a classic One-Shot Dillinger who rarely throws combinations and relies on a Rhode Island Shell, a janky Philly Shell, to defend. Borralho's hype train will come to a screeching halt when he faces an elite striker and can't get the fight to the mat.
But will it stop before crashing into Matt Hughes's truck or before being mentioned in title conversations someday? Borralho will have to grapple his way to the top. Borralho is a back specialist, and we ain't talkin' chiropractors. Homie's back mount is called Con Air. They transport the world's most dangerous criminals with Ciao Borralho latched to their back. They wheel out Hannibal Lecter on a dolly, restrained by Borralho's back mount. People disappear within Borralho's body triangle like an Unsolved Mysteries episode. From the top position, Ciao sticks to you like a damn spider web. Hours after he chokes you, you're still scratching and clawing at yourself, swearing you can feel him still stuck on you.
Borralho's path to victory against Cannonier will be on the mat. Cannonier rocks a sixty-one percent takedown defense, while Borralho averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes. Two doesn't sound like much, but that's because once he gets you down, you don't get back up. Especially if he takes your back. If the fight stays standing, I think Cannonier still has better overall striking and will have a slight edge.
That's because Cannonier's hands got that Stankonia power. He'll turn your poundcake to red velvet real quick if you get to half-steppin' anywhere near him in the cage. His hands got that funk like that shit in the back of your fridge. That funk like when SpottieOttieDopaliscious comes on.
Or do they?
In his last bout against Nassourdine Imavov, it was the first time Cannonier finally started looking his age, forty. For a while, Cannonier fought like he forgot how old he was. Yo! Hit my hometown shit, that Blink 182 "What's My Age Again?" Jared suddenly looked like he had lost a step or two like Lt. Dan. It could have been Imavov's superior hand speed that made Cannonier look slow, but slow he did look. The trademark Cannonier aggression wasn't there. He can pressure you without punches, cutting off the ring and marching you down. But he was oddly passive against Imavov.
Against Borralho, Cannonier needs to pour some Gasoline Dreams all over the fookin' Octagon, lob some Bombs Over Baghdad, and ignite a firefight. Then apologize to Ms. Jackson after. I'm sorry, Ms. Jackson, ooh, Cannonier is for real. Drag this kid Borralho into the shallow end where the real ABs dwell. Cannonier has to go out like Brad Pitt at the end of Seven and unload the fookin' clip. What's in the box, Jared!? A fookin' grown man ass-whoopin'! Most importantly, Cannonier needs to learn from Izzy's mistakes last weekend. Both times the fight went to the mat, Izzy gave up his back while trying to get back to his feet. Don't skip steps. Go through the progressions to work your way back up, Jared.
It's been a minute since Cannonier finished a fight. Actually, it's been 1,314,873 minutes since he finished a fight. That was four fights and two years ago against the one-round wonder, Derek Brunson. Before that, you have to go back to 2019. Cannonier's major malfunction is that he travels along the same spectrum as old-school Rozenstruik and just doesn't let his hands go enough. He needs to go full Jairzinho Holloway like the new-school Rozenstruik and pressure Borralho with volume. Cannonier will be the higher-output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM to Borralho's under three. Volume will help Cannonier steal close rounds... if he can stay on his feet.
Borralho will be the (-200) favorite, and Cannonier will be the live (+170) dog. Cannonier can win this with volume on the feet. In twenty-four career fights, Cannonier has yet to be submitted. Borralho has four career subs to go with five TKO/KOs. When push comes to shove, I would say Borralho is a position over submission grappler. I think the play for both fighters is a decision. Cannonier can catch Borralho on the feet, and Borralho can catch Cannonier's neck on the mat, but I think this could turn into a slow-paced grinder against the cage and on the mat.
Oops! He did it again. The main event-L streak sits at two after DDP did it again. I'm now 0-8 picking Dricus Du Plessis's fights. DDP could walk through an L storm and come out sopping with dubs. I knew I was fooked when Izzy pointed to the mat like Max. "You ain't Max!" I yelled. Don't ever try to be like Max. That one hurts all the more because I have no idea who wins this one. I'm not sure Borralho is for real. But he might be catching Cannonier at the right time, on the downside of his physical abilities. Ciao Borralho via decision. Put it on wax.
Props
Cannonier: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+2200) Dec (+550)
Borralho: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+300) Dec (+165)
Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci
Disclaimer: This card is a mess, and features the Ultimate Fighter season 32 contestants who weren't finalized until the week of the fights. I have no idea what the final bout order will be so my main card will look different than the official one.
Angela Hill is the Jim Miller of female fighters. If you've been rocking with the WKO from day one, you know Angela Hill was victim zero at the infamous Valero in the middle of the Nevada desert. She was bound and gagged and held hostage in the handicap stall of the restroom alongside fellow victim Olympic swimmer Ryan Lochte. The culprits, a trio of Dead Presidents, Ford, JFK, and Nixon, held Hill at gunpoint and shook her down for her dub over Michelle Waterson. Hill became known for being robbed like Batman's parents in nearly every city she fought in. She developed agoraphobia, afraid to peek her head outside the Octagon because she got robbed so many times. CVS's in San Francisco don't get robbed as much as Angela Hill. This Saturday night Hill could put her record for most robberies out of reach like Barry Bonds' home run record with another suspect split decision loss against Tabatha Ricci. Make no mistake, that is exactly what this striker vs. grappler matchup will be, a split decision.
The entire Octagon is a hill Angela Hill is willing to die on. She is a USDA-certified Triple O-G. Hill is Billy Bean's baseball ideology manifested inside the cage; she's on that Moneyball shit, getting on base by any means necessary, drag bunts, infield singles, dropped third strikes – it's all about on-base percentage with Angela Hill. She's Steve Young's West Coast offense, dinking and dunking with volume punches all the way down the field. "Kill" Hill is the definition of a high-volume striker. She has recorded over one hunnid significant strikes in eight fights and averages just under five and a half SLpM. That's while defending an average of fifty takedowns per fifteen minutes (fabricated stat). Overall, Hill is a modern-day Ronin, a silent assassin who is never an easy out.
But Hill does have a major malfunction, get-ups. Hill rocks a career seventy-six takedown percentage, which ain't wack. But she has trouble getting back to her feet when she does end up on the mat. When Hill loses, it's usually because she was taken down and held down. And that's exactly what Tabatha Ricci will try to do against her. But even though Hill will have to spend time defending takedowns, she will still be a valuable Fantasy option. Ricci will eventually relent to a kickboxing match; she always does. If Ricci can't immediately get the fight to the mat, she will stand and bang, and Hill will have plenty of time to rack up significant strikes. Against comparable wrestlers, Denise Gomes and Loopy Godinez, Hill landed seventy-six and eighty-five significant strikes, respectively.
Tabatha Ricci is the type to carry your ass across the threshold. She's the type to make you take her ex-husband's last name. If she can get you to the mat, she's a bully and can Real Doll you real quick. Tabatha averages three takedowns per fifteen minutes and rarely loses when she can score multiple takedowns. But when you mix in her striking, Ricci becomes fairly average. Overall, she reminds me of the three-pack of Crayons, blue, red, and yellow, that your kids get with a maze placemat at Mexican restaurants. She's not on that sixty-four-color Crayola shit. She's the orange Otter Pop left over when all the blues, reds, and purples are gone – the original Lays left over after the BBQ, sour cream and onion, and Cool Ranch Doritos are gone from the Costco variety pack. Tabatha Ricci is most likely to survive on the front lines because she stays in the middle of the pack.
I say all that to say this: This fight is tailor-made for Ricci if she stays committed to her wrestling. She's not a bad striker; she just lacks advanced footwork and struggles to throw combinations. But she still averages nearly four and a half SLpM and will go out swinging even when she's getting pieced up. Ricci will be the even money dog, and Hill will be the (-120) favorite. Hill's takedown defense, experience, and volume are the reasons why she is the slight favorite. There's only one play for these ladies, a decision. Angela is coming in off a rare finish, her first in eleven fights, and Ricci only has one finish in seven UFC bouts. You already know I'm riding with the San Diego Hall of Famer, who was inducted last year alongside Ron Burgundy. Angel Hill via decision. Put it on wax.
Props
Hill: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+2000) Dec (+120)
Ricci: TKO/KO (+1600) Sub (+800) Dec (+130)
Michael Morales vs. Neil Magny
Michael "Myers" Morales is back. This guy could play Rumble in Rumble Johnson's biopic. Morales is like a Rumble Johnson aftershock, still hitting 6.0 on the Richter scale. M&M is a showroom muscle car with a hood scoop, racing stripes, and exhaust pipes that exhale like dab hits. You can hear this guy coming the moment he exits the freeway. Which is the complete opposite of Neil Magny. Magny used to have a spot on the main lot, but over the years, he has drifted further to the back with the used cars that only get a slight rinse when it rains. But you can say all you want about his style, that it's sterile and reminds you of hospital waiting rooms, or that his theme music would be elevator music. But you also have to say that homie keeps winning. He's not quite DDP, but Neil Magny stumbles into dubs like blind folks do furniture. Just when you think Neil Magny can't win, he does win. So, I'll put the calligraphy pen away and resist the urge to completely write him off in flowing medieval script.
Like the great Chuck Liddell, Michael Morales breaks all the rules. And if you tried to force him to comply with traditional striking edicts, he would likely be half the fighter that he is. The best fighters blend traditional technique and unorthodoxy. I.e. Dricus Du Plessis. You can't explain why or how DDP is able to out strike some of the best strikers in the game when you see his goofy style. But it works because it's atypical. Michael Morales launches missiles from the chest like a Mech Warrior and never raises his hands above chest level. His style is much like a less technical Carlos Prates. I can feel it coming in the air tonight like Phil Collins, Morales will get KO'd soon. Disaster got a restraining order against Morales because he won't stop flirting with it and harassing it with zero-point-zero head movement and a flat, squared upright stance. Morales has that dog cone head movement, and he will eventually get got.
But homie has the codes clutched in both fists. You already know which codes. We ain't talkin' Game Genie. This guy throws nothing but Ben Joyce one hundred four mph fastballs with both hands. MF has to wear his glove on his damn head. Morales is 16-0 with eleven TKO/KOs and one sub, including 4-0 in the UFC with two TKO/KOs. He will be the higher output striker, averaging just under five and a half SLpM to Magny's three and a half. In his last two fights that went the distance, Morales landed eighty-four and seventy-two significant strikes.
Neil Magny trip, fell, and landed on a dub in his most recent bout against Mike Malott. Malott was one minute away from a unanimous decision when he fumbled the victory snap. Homie hit the wall like Dale. He fumble-rooski'd the bag and kicked it all the way out the back of the endzone. For Magny, it was like not wearing a seatbelt, getting into a crash, flying through the windshield, and landing in a soft dub pile on the side of the road. Magny pretended he didn't hear Lizzo singing. But dubs are dubs, and we don't apologize for those around here. Magny's UFC career goes further back than our hairlines. And your boy is rocking that Fire Marshall Bill fade these days. Magny's hairline is running like a rookie lit the Jay. One day, Neil Magny will slap me like Chris Rock. And it will be more significant strikes than he landed in the first fourteen minutes of the Malott fight. The problem with Neil Magny is you never know which Magny will show up.
Magny has a golden ticket to ride the Bipolar Express. Some nights, he shows up looking like the guy who beat Hector Lombard in 2016, and other nights, he looks like the guy who was getting ridden like Meek Mill for fourteen minutes against Malott. Lately, Magny has started to get a little lumpy. You catch a whiff of him every time you open the fridge. Sometimes Neil just doesn't look interested – looks uninspired, like a poet without a muse. When he gets taken down, he'll lie on his back, checking the clock, then grab a cig and say he will text you later when it's over. And then, sometimes, Neil gets a hare up his ass like a suspect magician. Magny is still long and rangy as fook; his range is tough to navigate, like Home Depot parking lots. I've seen his range create problems for some excellent strikers over the years.
Neil can win this fight by making it an ugly Neil Magny fight against the cage and in the clinch. He can't stand at range for fifteen minutes against this kid. He has to make this an MMA fight and test Morales's ground game. Sheesh! Magny will be the (+500) mangy-ass dog, and Morales will be the (-750) favorite. As they used to say on old-school First Take: That is assa-nine, ten, eleven, and twelve. Those are wild odds. Disrespectful odds. This will be a much closer fight than the odds suggest. Magny has a way of getting guys off their games. Most importantly, Magny will hang around and hang around and hang around... But in the end, I don't think Magny will be able to get Morales to the mat. Morales rocks a nointey percent take-down defense. I think the play is another decision. Magny is susceptible to submissions, but he's hard to finish on the feet. Michael Morales via decision. On wax.
Props
Morales: TKO/KO (+180) Sub (+700) Dec (-120)
Magny: TKO/KO (+2200) Sub (+2800) Dec (+900)
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Gerald Meerschaert never goes full Amber Heard; it's always just a mere shart. This guy has more submissions than I have anything. I don't have anything in abundance like Meerschaert has subs. Meerschaert is a sub hoarder. You can't even open his front door without an avalanche of subs falling upon you and burying you alive. The city condemned Meerschaert's pad because it's a public health hazard. Homie has twenty-eight career subs, and twenty-noine is winking and batting his eyelashes at him in the form of Edmen Shahbazyan's neck. Although Shahbazyan has never been submitted, he's never stepped foot in Meerschaert's H.H. Holmes house of horrors. This one is close to a guaranteed finish. Meerschaert finished thirty-four of his thirty-six career dubs, and Edmen Shahbazyan has a gas tank like the little red one you carry on the side of the road. Something will have to give.
Edmen Shahbazyan is a Flat Earther's Exhibit A. Because he fell off the face of it after starting his UFC career 4-0. He then went on a mini-Tony run, losing three in a row and four of five. But he's coming in off an ugly dub, and—cue that Metallica—Nothing Else Matters! Shahbazyan is built like Lego people; he's set to play SpongeBob in the new live-action movie. There's something oddly square about Shahbazyan, and he moves around the Octagon gingerly, almost like the way Shannon Sharpe walks. Shahbayzan has sneaky striking, with quick hands and a nasty left hook. But his major malfunction is his chin. Hit that Methodman "Suspect Chin Music!" Shotgun slammin' in your chest piece, Blaow! Shahbazyan has that "you break it, you buy it" chin. His chin should be featured on the Antique Road Show. Porcelain-ass chin. It only takes a few seconds for my man Edmen to be on wobbly Bambi legs.
"You're good at pointing out problems, but do you have any solutions?" Yes. Head movement! Edmond was right. Head movement! Homie has that People's Court neck brace head movement. But Shahbazyan's majorest malfunction is his gas tank. He's the type to put $5 on pump eight, and gas is $5.87 a gallon. Homie is filling up again on the walk backstage after the fight. The key for Shahbazyan will be short-playing this fight on the feet. A big part of Ed's game is wrestling, but I don't think he wants to be on the mat with Meerschaert. His best path to victory is out striking Meerschaert and finding a finish before he gasses. Shahbazyan is 13-4 with eleven TKO/KOs and one sub and averages three and a half SLpM to Meerschaert's three. The only play for Shabazyan is a TKO/KO. It's not likely he will out-point Meerschaert.
Gerald's Game... is losing when you pick him to win and winning when you have him pegged for an L. When you expect the world from Gerald Meerschaert, he hands you Sandy, Utah. On the feet, Gerald has those Indica hands – fell asleep at a red light hands. He has stoned hands, not hands of stone. His hands forget what they got up to do halfway to the target. He has them Leo crawling to the Lambo hands. Nobody will ever forget when Khamzat sat Meerschaert down like Chris Hansen walked into the room.
But fook all that, homie has more submissions than a dominatrix. And not even a pop-up ad could keep this guy from a finish. Meerschaert has chokes like serial killers in the 60s. When serial killers were still blue-collar and worked with their hands. If Meerschaert actually commits to his ground game (which is rare), he will submit Edmen Shahbazyan. But Meerschaert often elects to stay on the feet, playing it safe instead of closing the distance and initiating a takedown. The play for Meerschaert is a submission. A decision would favor Gerald surviving Edmen's early storm and riding out top control. But I think this one will end in a finish.
Shahbazyan will be the (-310) favorite, and Meerschaert will be the live-ass (+255) dog. I think this is a toss-up, a classic pick 'em. Meerschaert will have a massive upside as a finishing threat. But when you have faith in him... But it's impossible to have any faith in Shahbazyan's chin or gas tank. There's too much value in Meerschaert to pass him up. I know. I do this every fookin' time. I pick Meerschaert fights like I pick DDP fights. Gerald Meerschaert via guillotine choke, round three. On wax.
Props
Shahbazyan: TKO/KO (-160) Sub (+800) Dec (+600)
Meerschaert: TKO/KO (+1800) Sub (+450) Dec (+750)
Zachary Reese vs. Jose Medina
I recently went to Carl's Jr. and ordered a Double Bacon Western Cheeseburger meal, which cost thirty-five bucks. But that's not the point. The point is, when I pulled up to the window, I was handed my order, and I immediately checked it, making sure there was no spit on my burger—your boy's car is covered in Dallas Cowboys decals, and it's that time of year. Inside the bag was, "Reese better pray to the Soy God that he can get Marquez to the mat, or this will get ugly with a cape on real quick – super ugly." "Hey, homie. This ain't what I ordered," I said. When I looked up, Zachary Reese's head was sticking out of the drive-thru window with a grotesque Joker grin on his face.
"Yes, it is," he said. "And I ain't your homie, buddy."
"Reese looks all kinds of sketchy on the feet, like taking a dump in public, and the seat is already warm." It was the first time my order looked like the advertised version on the menu. I drove away with a mouthful of my own words – might as well eat them while they're still warm. It was only a couple of weeks ago that Zach Reese KO'd Julian Marquez quicker than a Pop Tart will burn in the toaster. He KO'd Marquez with a sneaky uppercut with four seconds left on the shot clock. Somehow, someway, the grappling specialist now has five career TKO/KOs to just two subs and a one-hundred-percent finishing rate. It was a hell of a way to come back from the Ricardo Arona slam-KO loss he took in his debut to Cody Brundage.
I'd like to take this opportunity to apologize to... ABSOLUTELY NOBODY! I'm still canceling after the trial period; I ain't buying Reese's striking. I just haven't seen enough. His fights are quicker than Noah Lyles running the one hundred meters. Like McRibs, Reese is only here for a limited time. He's a while supplies last-ass mf. His fights are Cliff's Notes. His fights are like the end credits running immediately after the opening credits. You're just paying to watch names roll across the screen. And he still looks like vegan Logan Paul. With only two minutes of cage time, I still don't know how good Reese is/isn't. I know he's a dangerous grappler, but I'm not sure his striking will hold up against even mid-strikers in the division. But he can overwhelm you straight out the gate with a blitzkrieg of flailing limbs as he did Julian Marquez.
Reese is 7-1 for his career, and stats don't really apply to this guy because every one of his fights ended in the first round. Seconds rounds are a myth to Zach Reese. But what will he look like at the six-minute mark of a fight? The problem is I'm not sure we'll get an answer to that question when he fights Jose Medina. The only play for Reese is a finish. The hard part will be deciding between a TKO/KO and a submission.
Medina was on the Contender Series and lost a lopsided affair to a real heathen, Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. Medina looked like Homer fighting Boxcar Willies in that fight, sustaining massive amounts of damage, yet remaining upright for the duration. Homie took a women's Olympic beach volleyball beating. But he made it to the final bell. Medina looks like C-list Danny Trejo. BTW, Trejo was a San Quentin welterweight boxing champion back in the day. I'll say this about Medina, he fights like someone just said, "Juan Gabriel ain't shit!" Those are scrapping words. Matter of fact, hit that Tone Loc "Funky Cold Medina!" Medina's special move is getting his ass kicked and talking shit like he isn't. Homie has a short memory and can't remember the last punch he ate a half-second ago. That's a fooked up way of saying Medina is tough like bear meat. "Durable" is like a Scarlett Letter when describing fighters, but that's exactly what Medina is.
And you know what? That's exactly what he'll need in this fight. Don't sleep on the Funky Cold Medina. He has the durability to drag Reese into uncharted territory. Which is his whole fookin' level map. The entire thing is blacked out because his longest fight was only four minutes. Medina will be the (+375) live dog. Yes, live. If he gets out of the first round, who knows what Reese will look like? He doesn't even know. Reese will be the prohibited (-525) favorite and a possible Fantasy bust if he can't score an early finish. I just haven't seen enough of Medina to pick him to win this fight. But I may have a little "just in case" Hamilton on him. He could be a Fantasy flipper if he can get the fight to the 5:01 mark. But I'm gonna ride with Zac— No, I'm not! Don't do it! Bet I won't do it. You took a chance on Tai Tuivasa last week and got burned – third-degree. Yeah, but life's a risk, carnal. Gadzhiyasulov couldn't finish Medina on the mat... Jose Medina via decision. Put that shit on wax!
Prelims
$7k Value Menu
Josiane Nunes ($7.7k): This young lady cracks like butt cheeks. Technique and fundamentals don't live here. Nunes is the female Chris Leben, a zombie striker who marches through your best offense while unloading nothing but twelve-to-six overhand bombs. Nunes has never heard of a jab. If she stays standing, she has a chance to KO almost any woman. She will be up against Jacqueline Cavalcanti, who will be making only her second UFC start. Cavalcanti will be the far more technical and all-around better fighter, but she will be far less of a finishing threat than Nunes. Nunes's major malfunction: A fifty-eight career takedown defense. What goes down doesn't come back up when it comes to Nunes's ground game. But if she can lick off a few stray overhands and hooks, she'll have a chance to finish this fight.
James Llontop ($7.5k): This is a more reserved pick. Llontop will be making his second UFC appearance and facing the nasty striker Viacheslav Borshchev. There's no doubt that Borschev is a better striker, but Llontop has some slick striking of his own, and this will more than likely be a kickboxing match for its duration. Llontop will have plenty of opportunities to land moderate significant strikes even in a loss, barring a quick finish. Borschev got beat like stepkids in his last bout against Hangin' With Mr. Hooper, Chase Hooper, and who knows if there will be some residual effects lingering when he steps into the cage against Llontop. But this should be a high-pace, high-output striking match, which should producesolid stats for both fighters.
Gerald Meerschaert ($7.2k): Gerald Meerschaert keeps sucking me back in. I can't quit Gerald Meerschaert. After every Meerschaert fight, I swear him off – never again. And here we are. This guy could sub your God's favorite God with the quickness. Twenty-eight career submissions; that's why he stays in the Fantasy rotation. Also, Edmen Shahbazyan can't be trusted any further than a rickshaw can carry Lizzo. Edmen's chin: Janky. Edmen's cardio: Wack. The odds suggest the longer this fight goes, the better chance Meerschaert will have of submitting Shahbazyan. Edmen has to find a finish on the feet before his fight shorts turn into daisy dukes after the first round, and he's left assed-out like a knock-off Jump Man logo. And if he does gas, Meerschaert will have a choke chambered, ready to put Shahbazyan out of his misery.
$6k Clearance Rack
Neil Magny ($6.7k): Neil can make shit ugly, and he hangs around like a doodie you can't pinch off. He'll have you twerking on the toilet seat, trying to shake him off. Magny is a super veteran who has faced every type of danger known to man within the Octagon. He can make this an MMA fight and use the clinch and sneaky schoolyard trips to neutralize Michael Morales's power and reach. Magny spent more than half the fight on his back against Mike Malott and still managed fifty-seven significant strikes and got a third-round finish. Lorenz Larkin and "The Ponz" Santiago Ponzinibio are the only fighters to ever finish Magny on the feet. Magny will have an upper $7k Fantasy value, and they got him sitting on the rack next to the restrooms in the back of the store with a noinety percent off sticker on him.
Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers
Gerald Meerschaert (+250): This might be the last time you see Meerschaert as a sleeper. This fight is tailor-made for Meerschaert to survive early on the feet and take over mid-fight when Shahbazyan tends to fade to black. Edmen has about five minutes of fight in him before he becomes nearly useless. The key for Meerschaert will be closing the distance, draining Edmen's energy in the clinch, and defending takedowns. Meerschaert is far from a Makhachev when it comes totakedowns, but if he stays committed, they will be easier to come by as the fight progresses. The play for Meerschaert is a submission.
Jared Cannonier (+200): It will be a tough night for dogs on Saturday night. I've never seen so many debuting fighters on one card, a card that wasn't fully completed until mid-week. Cannonier will be as live a dog as you will get on this card. I think he is still a better striker than Ciao Borralho. But the key will be defending takedowns and committing to making this a dogfight on the feet. Cannon will be the bigger finishing threat, as I think Borralho will have to win this fight with top control for the better part of twenty-five minutes. If Cannon lets his fookin' hands go, he will win this fight. If he comes out doing the same ol' half-step he did against Imavov, you might as well tear up the ticket and use it as an ass napkin in this sweltering heat.
Pick 'Em
*This card has seven debuting fighters, many from the Ultimate Fighter show, so there isn't much/any fight data on them. Three bouts were added this week. Proceed with caution. The TUF finale matchups are set to air on the main card, but there isn't enough footage on those guys to do a full write-up. But I watched enough fights to make picks. The WKO has never missed a pick. We put 'em all on wax for better or worse.
Robert Valentin (-185) vs. Ryan Loder (+160) *TUF Finale
Winner: Robert Valentin
Method: Decision
Kaan Ofli (+160) vs. Mairon Santos (-180) *TUF Finale
Winner: Marion Santos
Method: Decision
Denis Buzukja (+125) vs. Francis Marshall (-145)
Winner: Denis Buzukja
Method: Decision
Viacheslav Borshchev (-225) vs. James Llontop (+185)
Winner: Viacheslav Borschchev
Method: TKO Rd.3
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-205) vs. Josiane Nunes (+175)
Winner: Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Method: Decision
Zygimantas Ramaska ( ) vs. Nathan Fletcher ( )
Winner: Zygimantas Ramaska
Method: Decision
Cong Wang (-1300) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+725)
Winner: Cong Wang
Method: TKO Rd.2
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