Watching the Democratic National Convention (DNC) this week, a common message is Joe Biden's selfless act of sacrifice in the name of his country and party.
It's easy to see why. After all, the presidency is, without question, the most prestigious job in the world. The President is the most consequential person in the world. The President literally has the power of life and death over billions of people. The President is always the most important person in any room. The President can effect fundamental change in any number of ways. It must be hard to voluntarily walk away from that much power.
Joe Biden had the nomination wrapped up. He could have just ignored the naysayers. The delegates bound to him would have just handed him the nomination and there was really nothing that Democratic leadership could have done about it. Although the polls were grim, it certainly appeared that Biden still had the firm belief that he beat Trump once and that he would be able to beat him again.
In the end, he did place his country and his party over his ambition. He listened, took stock, and not only willingly gave up his dream, but then with great graciousness enabled his potential successor to glide in and take up the fallen banner. That truly is the act of a patriot.
There, of course, is a flip side. He's 82 and, at least over the last year, has looked and acted like he was 82. Physically and mentally, he's a different person than he was in 2020. If he is like this at 82, how would he look and act at 86? The presidency is not exactly a part time retirement job.
Let's not underestimate the polls. They dictated that he had one and only one path in the electoral college and he was behind in all of the key states. Not only that but reliably blue states were starting to look shaky. Trump was pulling ahead in the polls. Trump was pulling ahead in campaign funds. Did Biden really have the energy to reverse all of that? It seems doubtful.
On top of that, Biden ran in 2020 claiming to be a transitional President. Most people's idea of a transitional President is not eight years. I fully expected him to serve four years and then step aside for the next generation. Perhaps if Trump had done so as well, that might have happened. Maybe, but I also didn't see Biden do a lot of laying of groundwork preparing the next generation for 2024.
I'm willing to give Biden the benefit of the doubt. As I've said above, many people have commented on Biden's unprecedented sacrifice. As a presidential history geek, how unprecedented is it? How many sitting Presidents have voluntarily walked away instead of running for reelection?
TL;DR
I know that this is a long post full of Presidential arcana (sorry not sorry). The bottom line is that Joe Biden is the only sitting President in history that had his party's nomination locked up but decided not to seek reelection.
Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman both ran for reelection but bowed out pretty quickly when it looked like they were in for a rough haul. They are the closest match to Biden's situation.
There were three Presidents that, during their election campaign, promised not to run for reelection and fulfilled that promise. They were James Buchanan, Rutherford B Hayes, and James K Polk.
There was one Vice President that finished his President's term, won election on his own, and then decided that he was done. That was Calvin Coolidge.
Conclusion: Biden's decision was unprecedented but there were several other Presidents that did ultimately decide to walk away from the Presidency even though another term could have been in their grasp.
Presidents that served two full terms
First of all, I'm going to exclude all Presidents that served two full terms. Now I know, before the 22nd amendment was passed in 1947, that Presidents could run for more terms, but Washington did set the two term precedent and most Presidents followed it. That criterion excludes a whole bunch of Presidents (ranging from Washington to Obama).
Vice Presidents that were never elected on their own
I'm also going to exclude the Vice Presidents that took over for dead Presidents and that did not win a term on their own. They were truly accidental Presidents that people were glad to move on from. These Presidents are Chester Arthur, Andrew Johnson, Millard Fillmore, and John Tyler.
Vice Presidents that did get elected on their own
Now let's talk about the Vice Presidents that took over and were able to win their own term. What happened to them?
Lyndon B Johnson: Johnson appeared to be a shoe-in to be re-elected President in 1968. In those days, the national convention was where the candidate was selected (only thirteen states even held Democratic primaries). However, those early primaries demonstrated how much Democrats disapproved of his Vietnam policies. Not only that, but Robert Kennedy made a big splash when he announced that he was running. Now, LBJ hated Bobby Kennedy and probably could not stomach the idea of losing to him. On top of that, LBJ had requested a secret actuarial estimate that informed him that there was a good chance that he was going to die in the next four years (history of heart disease). All of that went into his decision to announce that he would not run. When Kennedy was assassinated, there was a good chance that LBJ reconsidered his decision. There is evidence that he was hoping and waiting for the DNC to draft him for another term.
Conclusion: LBJ faced a similar decision to Biden. An important difference is that, unlike Biden, LBJ did not have the nomination locked up. Also unlike Biden, LBJ appeared to have second thoughts about his decision.
Harry Truman: Since the 22nd amendment had passed in 1947, Truman was grandfathered in, so he was eligible to run in 1952. Despite many people trying to talk him out of it (due to age, health, unpopularity), he kept his name on the New Hampshire primary. When he lost the primary, he read the handwriting on the wall and bowed out.
Conclusion: I think that Truman totally would have kept running if he felt that he had a chance.
Calvin Coolidge: This one is an easy one. In the summer of 1927, he issued a one sentence statement that he will not be running in 1928. In his memoirs, he basically said that he was done.
Conclusion: Kudos to Coolidge for voluntarily giving up the chance for another term.
Teddy Roosevelt: This is the most famous example of this scenario. After completing McKinley's term, he ran in 1904 and pledged that he would not run again. Although still young, he lived up to that commitment and basically anointed William Taft as his successor. Almost immediately, he regretted the choice of Taft. In the 1912 election, he challenged Taft for the Republican nomination. When he did not get it, he formed the Progressive Party, otherwise known as the Bull Moose Party. All that did was split the vote, enabling Woodrow Wilson to slide into the White House. Since he finished ahead of Taft in the general election, I guess that was kind of a moral victory.
Conclusion: There was no way that Teddy Roosevelt wasn't going to hang onto the Presidency as long as he could.
Presidents that pledged to serve only term
Even when they were running for their first term as President, they pledged to serve only one term. All three lived up to their word. These Presidents were James Buchanan, Rutherford Hayes, and James Polk.
There's a couple of interesting things here. First of all, Polk died three months after he left office, so he wouldn't have served much of his second term even if he had been reelected. It's pretty convenient that James Buchanan made that announcement when he was running in 1856. Because of the state that he left the country in 1860, there was no way that he was going to get renominated anyway. Rutherford Hayes, with his controversial election, seems to make every Presidential oddity list. Here he is yet again.
Conclusion: This is where it gets interesting. Four years ago, I would have placed Joe Biden on this list. After all, a transitional presidency certainly seems like a single term to me. It sure appear to me, once he experienced fully the trappings of power, that he seemed to think that it was important to the country that he run again. It's an interesting question that the next generation of historians to resolve.
The saddest President of all time
Let's not forget Franklin Pierce. Pierce was a one term President that fully expected to be renominated by his party. In fact, he apparently thought that he might get renominated on the first ballot at the convention. Instead, he finished second. From there, his totals began to slowly decrease. He gave up after the fourteenth ballot. Yes, Pierce is the only sitting President that went to his party's convention fully expecting to be anointed and his party noped. Sad!
The two term exception
No, I'm not talking about Franklin Roosevelt. It sure does seem like FDR was planning to die in office. When he was running in 1944, many people close to him already said that he looked like death. All evidence points to him winning the election knowing that he would not survive the ensuing four years. The fact that he put zero effort into preparing Truman for that eventuality beggars belief.
I'm actually talking about Ulysses Grant. After serving two terms as President, Grant chose to honor the Washington tradition and did not run in 1876. Apparently by the time that 1880 rolled around, Grant had second thoughts. Due to Hayes' holding onto his promise to only serve one term, an opportunity opened up. Grant's name was placed into nomination at the convention and he was very willing to run. He led all ballots but couldn't get to the vote total finish line. Eventually, after many ballots, the convention went with the dark horse, James Garfield.
Conclusion: The siren of the Presidency was too much for Grant to ignore.
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