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Main Card
Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
It's only a matter of time until Nurmagomedovs take over the world. Umar is the latest generation of Skynet cybrid sent from the future to pick up where Khabib, the archetype, left off in fulfilling the whims of their clandestine creators. But a faction of fighters in the not-so-distant future have bound together and concentrated their knowledge and resources to train a fighter in the advanced techniques of every major discipline to send him back in time to stop Umar from becoming the UFC Bantamweight Champion and thus ushering in a Nurmagomedov dynasty. That fighter's name: Cory Sandhagen. The fate of the UFC will rest in his fight shorts, swaying back and forth, as many past fighters have balked at the prospect of carrying such a burden. Should Sandhagen succeed in destroying Umar, the League of Extraordinary Fighters will have to outfit a True Temper six cubic-foot wheelbarrow like a DeLorean to carry Sandhagen's nuts back to the future on some Marty McFly-type shit.
In 2018, Sandhagen fell out of a portal in the back alley of a Madison, Alabama Buca di Beppo cheeks neked, after which the manager of the Rocket City Trash Pandas—after celebrating a Double-A playoff berth with generous helpings of eggplant parm and bread pudding—stumbled upon Sandhagen and offered him Sprocket's (the Trash Panda's mascot) costume to cover up his indecency. In a way, Sandhagen never took off that costume. He went on to become the official Sprocket, an honor he holds to this day, while simultaneously working his way up the UFC rankings in hopes of facilitating a confrontation with Umar.
Those hopes came to fruition when the battle for the future of the UFC was originally set for August of 2023. But mysteriously, Skynet pulled the plug. Afraid their cover had been blown, Sandhagen took a fight with Rob Font in the interim and dominated, while Umar (after overcoming an early knockdown) dominated a sleeper debutante in Bekzat Almakhan. Once again, fates have aligned. A win over a former title challenger and perennial top-five fighter could all but assure Umar a clear path to UFC tyranny. And a win for Sandhagen would be a win for humanity and could catapult him to one more shot at the belt that has eluded him.
I say all that to say this: We finally got another banger. Although Sandhagen has been using his wrestling primarily in recent fights, he will once again be the striker in this striker vs. wrestler matchup. The Sandman will have to go back to school on some 21 Jump Street type-shit and bring back the old-school Sandman. He will be like twenty-eight-year-old actors/actresses playing teenagers in 90s movies and TV shows. Sandhagen will roll up in a classic GTO, bumping Green Day and get into scraps on the first day of school. He'll submit the entire wrastlin' team, including the coaches. Sandhagen's best attribute is that he looks unassuming. He looks like every mascot who has ever been unmasked, either during mascot fisticuffs or people being Richards and wanting to see Bruce Wayne under the mask. Sandhagen has been teaching mascot self-defense ever since Conor McGregor put the Miami Heat mascot in a coma like Steven Seagal in Hard To Kill. But don't let any of that fool you. Sandhagen has been and remains one of the best fighters in the division.
When Sandhagen added a wrestling element to his game, it was like when they added z to graphs in Algebra. It was a new variable for opponents to solve. But against Umar, it will be back to just x and y axis. The Sandman made a name for himself as a striker slicker than Meek's ass after Diddy waxes it. Homie moves like a drop of liquid mercury on a metallic surface. You don't know where the front of him ends and the back of him begins. It's as if he has faces on both sides, like the Mayor in The Nightmare Before Christmas. He morphs between stances without you realizing it and is a natural striker out of both. Sandhagen is a Skinwalker Ranch shapeshifter of styles. He could come out looking like O'Malley in one round, Max in another, and Dominick with the slick back footwork, all in the same fight. He's a Faceless man of Braavos. The Sandman has so many styles that he has successfully become no one. In his last three bouts, this mf looked like Khamzat, taking everyone down.
The key for Cory will be keeping the fight standing and using his superior footwork to get in and out with the quickness. Sandhagen closes the distance with stance switches. It's like a sleight of hand while shuffling his power hands. Also, The Sandman has a special move developed specifically for this fight: The flying knee. Sandhagen's flying knees have maxed out frequent flyer miles. More than a flashy strike, Sandhagen is surgical with that bish, Jake. Timing is the key to any strike. Sandhagen has perfect setups and timing and can throw flying knees while retreating. Against a guy who implements almost exclusively traditional level changes, the flying knee could be the x-factor of the fight. The Sandman is 17-4 with seven TKO/KOs and three subs and averages nearly five and a half SLpM to Umar's just under five.
Harold and Umar go to Abu Dhabi. AKA, Umar Cum Laude. Umar is at the top of his class when it comes to dominant "ov/ev" wrestlers. AKA Fumar. He'll Inhale all the smoke, hold it in, and never exhale. Umar is one of the few guys you don't have a shot in Hell staying on your feet against. A big reason for that is his go-to setup. While nearly every other grappler uses their rear hand to level change off, Umar level changes off his jab. He level changes as he's jabbing. Using the lead hand makes it quicker to the target without telegraphing it, making it more effective at creating a reaction to hide the level change. It's one of the smoothest takedown setups ever-ever. Ever-ever? Ever-ever. And once he gets you down, you're not coming back up like the Titan sub.
You've seen fighters wrestle like Umar, but you've never seen one strike like him. These Dagestani fighters are like Avengers; they all have special superpowers on their feet. Umar's is the question mark kick. It will have you questioning everything, the moon landing, chemtrails, 9/11 - you'll turn into Eddie Bravo after one shin upside your head. The question mark kick is a low kick feint that he quickly turns into a high kick in one smooth motion. It's like his hips are double-jointed. If Umar's not careful, Diddy might try to sign him to Bad Boy. Homie has Shakira's hips. Yo! Hit that "Hips Don't Lie!" Umar's do. Like a politician. True Lies like Arnold. High or low, nobody knows where the kick is headed, least of all the poor mf he's kicking. Umar throws the question mark kick like a jab. And that's not hyperbole. The lead leg round kick is Umar's most fundamental weapon; he only throws hands as a last resort if an opponent can get inside his kicks.
He is he, but is he HIM? If you've been rocking with the WKO since day one, you've had the inside track on Umar since his debut. I said he would be the champ before his debut. I still think that is true. But I have to admit, I think I overestimated his striking. I may have been caught up in its uniqueness. How practical it will be against the best strikers in the division now I'm not so sure. But he has the best wrestling/grappling bar none, and on the mat is where he will have to beat Sandhagen. Umar averages four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes while Cory only defends at a sixty-four percent rate. For his career, Umar is 17-0 with two TKO/KOs and seven subs.
Umar will be the (-275) favorite, and The Sandman will be the (+225) live-ass dog. Even for world-class wrestlers like Umar, it is hard to straight wrestle for fifteen minutes much less twenty-five. I'll take Sandhagen's take on a more traditional kickboxing style over the ambiguity of Umar's any day. The key will be using his range to dominate the fringe of the pocket while learning from Leon's mistakes last weekend and keeping his back off the cage. The only time Sandhagen has been finished was by submission to Aljamain Sterling. I like the chances of this one going the distance, but there's big value for an Umar submission also. Sandhagen has landed over one hundred significant strikes three times in five five-round fights. He'll need volume to keep Umar off him.
The main event dub streak came to a halt at four last weekend. Although I didn't pick Belal, I put my money where my mouth wasn't as I once did when Leon won the belt against Usman. My how things come full circle. After the first easy takedown, I knew I was going to Sizzler. The rest was history after that. This one is a mind-fook. Although he has improved his offensive grappling, Sandhagen has shown holes from his back. But I think Umar will have to take the hard road. Umar Nurmagomedov via decision. Put it on wax.
Props
Sandman: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1600) Dec (+650)
Umar: TKO/KO (+6500) Sub (+275) Dec (+110)
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
One-Eye Willie is back, fresh off a first-round staring contest dub over Virna Jandiroba just a couple of weeks ago. Like Nas only needs one mic, Shara Magomedov only needs one eye, one eye. Shara will be stepping up in competition after what turned out to be a bye week against Antonio Trocoli four weeks ago. How impressive Shara was in that bout is debatable, but what isn't is that this matchup with the Lil' Heathen That Could, Michal Oleksiejczuk, will be every bit the banger that Shara's last fight wasn't. Like some people have peanut or shellfish allergies and break out into hives, and their throats swell to allow but a pinprick of air to their lungs, so too are these two allergic to touching the mat. Both are near invalids from their backs but savages on their feet, and there's a better chance of the Dallas Cowboys winning the Super Bowl this year than this fight has of going to the ground.
Shara Magomedov is an AI-generated character, the result of typing "One eye ginger Russian pirate Abe Lincoln beard" into a description box. Magomedov looks like Davey Jones cracked the combination to the locker and returned to tell some tales. MF looks like a Goosebumps cover. If you've seen one-eye, you've seen them all. Shara Magomedov is what happens when you keep an eye on the prize and not on the task at hand. He is a true eyewitness – a private eye (or private Dick if you want to be a Richard about it). Like Umar, Shara has a specialty on the feet: kicks. This guy is a historian of kicks, preserving for future generations every kick ever kicked since the beginning of recorded times, from the first Neanderthal Diddy kick ever delivered to the Jean Claude Van Damme finishing move helicopter splits kick. This dude will kick anything, even a man while he's down.
Shara's kicks aren't made until you order them. Throw your feet in the air and wave 'em like you just don't care. They call him Shara Bullet for a reason - even his hands kick like a .45 Desert Eagle. He uses his hands as a garnish after the main course of kicks has been served. Shara isn't the slickest boxer, but he has power in both hands and only throws combinations when he engages. Overall, Shara fights like he isn't only red-headed but also a stepchild. He'll bring the ruckus, the commotion, and the muf**kin' static every time he steps into the cage.
So far, even spotting fighters an eye, Shara has yet to face defeat. He is 13-0 for his career with eleven TKO/KOs. In two fights that both went into the third round, Shara averages over seven SLpM to Oleks's five. He can push a heavy pace, and so far, his cardio has held up even after defending takedowns throughout his first two UFC bouts. As long as he is facing a fellow striker, Shara is a Fantasy stud. He is a volume striker who can rack up significant strikes, and he's a finisher.
Michal Oleksiejczuk's last fight against Kevin Holland was the most Michal Oleksiejczuk fight ever. In the opening first second, Oleks landed a bomb, rushed in for a finish, and got taken down, whereupon his ass hitting the mat, he pressed the pause button and said, "I bet you're probably wondering how I got here..." What had happened was... Oleks got submitted almost instantaneous to his left cheek touching the mat. What's crazy is that it looked like his arm was broken when Holland caught him in an armbar, but here he is just weeks later, a glutton for punishment thirsting for more. The ink from his homies signing his cast was barely dry before he accepted a new fight. He's like Ronnie Lott, but instead of a finger, he told the trainer just to cut his arm off so he could keep fighting. Oleks has eight career losses, and six of them came by submission. The good news is Shara has zero career submissions.
Oleks is a technically awkward brawler with a drunken cadence. I'm talking catching DUI's in the cage drunken cadence. He has to lock his hands in the trunk and sleep it off after fights. His cadence is two times the legal limit. Oleks's cadence is so inebriated they set up checkpoints along his path to the Octagon.
"Excuse me, buddy. Have you had anything to drink tonight?"
"I plead the 1,2,3,4, Fiff! And I ain't your buddy, copper!"
Oleks gets into arguments with his ol' lady after his fights, "You've been drinking again!" Overhands and hooks launched from extreme angles; that's Oleksiejczuk's style. Traditional guards don't work when fighting Oleks. His hands have GPS alternative route capabilities that circumvent any congestion caused by hand guards. Overall, he moves like a Thriller backup dancer with a herky-jerky shambling cadence while unloading nothing but kill shots. Oleks is 19-8 with fourteen TKO/KOs and one sub. In fourteen career UFC bouts, Oleks has only been to a decision twice.
Shara is the (-240) favorite, and Oleks is the (+200) live-ass dog. The play for both fighters is a TKO/KO finish. I think there's a distant shot at a decision, but more than likely, one of these guys will get got in a wild exchange. Oleks will be an all-or-nothing Fantasy option with a big upside as a possible card flipper. But without a finish, Oleks will likely be a bust, even if the fight goes the distance. His career high in strikes landed is seventy-six, which came in his debut in 2017. This will be Shara's first legit test inside the Octagon against a striker who can stand toe-to-toe with him. At the end of the day, when it's all said and done, Shara has more weapons in his arsenal. Shara Magomedov via TKO, round two. On wax.
Props
Shara: TKO/KO (-110) Sub (+1600) Dec (+350)
Oleks: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1800) Dec (+550)
Chito Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Stripe from Gremlins is back, and so is the leper, Chito Vera, whose slightest touch equals death. These two are heathens from another incubator, two dangerous secret weapons developed in DARPA labs. So far, this card is shaping up to be the most complete in a while. Chito is fresh off what would have been dubbed the "Miracle on Canvass" when he nearly stopped Sean O'Malley in the final seconds after a perfectly placed liver shot visibly hurt O'Malley at the buzzer. If Chito had landed that shot ten seconds sooner, he may be the Champ right meow. And Deiveson Figueiredo is coming off a UFC 300 trouncing of Cody Garbrandt during his bantamweight debut. These two are savages separated at birth, and this could have been a main event for several recent cards (wait until you see next week's main event).
Chito Vera will straight murder your ass! He doesn't have weapons; he is a weapon. This guy was developed in secret Biolabs at UNC Chapel Hill, where they have been performing gain-of-function research on chimera Chito Veras. Chito is human pestilence, the black plague that invades your body like an alien spore, commandeers your faculties, and after using your body as an incubator for three rounds, explodes out of your chest like Bettys popping out of cakes at bachelor parties. Chito could walk through Elm Street with a whiffle bat drawn. Yo! Hit that Eminem "Underground!" Chito could fight Freddy Kreuger and Edward Scissorhands, too. Chito is a 90s villain who lets you unload all your ammo while remaining in slow pursuit. Unlike the Cyber Truck, Chito's armor is impenetrable. Chito is impeccable, impetuous, and impotent when it comes to giving a f**k. How do you want it? How do you feel? Chito will give it to ya. But what cha 'gone do with it?
Damage over everything; that's Chito's style. He often digs big holes for himself, falling behind on the scorecards, only to wipe out a significant deficit with a single blow. Elbows, fists, knees, chins; Chito is an equal opportunity striker who batters you throughout a fight. Even when he was down big against O'Malley, he nearly flipped over the Monopoly board with a single liver shot. That being said, his major malfunctions are urgency and output. When he loses, it's because he got outworked and spent too much time looking for perfect opportunities to strike. Chito is 23-9, but more impressive than eight career TKO/KOs and ten subs is that he has never been finished. All noine of his losses came via decision.
Deiveson Figueiredo reminds me of a Funko Pop Chuck Liddell. He's collectible Chuck Liddell, carrying his hands like mini–Civil War cannons menacingly at his chest. Figgy is a Grimm's Tale manifested. He's La Chupacabra, leaving behind nothing but bloodless empty husks of past opponents. In his last bout, he embalmed Cody Garbrandt, put pennies over his eyes, and sent him floating down the River Styx like It's a Small World. But unlike past performances, it was Figgy's grappling that was the deciding factor and not his dangerous striking. On the feet, Figgy has three pitches in his repertoire: Two and four-seam fastballs and a slider - a three-quarters overhand that curves around hand guards. Against Cody, his striking looked a little off in the opening round, causing him to revert to grappling. But he won't be able to out-grapple the top of the division. He will have to strike his way to the top.
Figgy's major malfunction is that he breaks. Chito doesn't. If you stand up to Figgy, he'll call for an usher to escort him to an exit. Even though he can stand and trade with Chito, Figgy will likely try to put Chito on his back and implement a similar game plan as the one he used against Cody. Chito rocks a seventy percent takedown defense, but when he ends up on his back, he's too willing to play from his guard instead of scrambling back to his feet. Figgy is 23-3 for his career with noine TKO/KOs and noine subs. But even though he's a finisher, Chito is the bigger finishing threat in this matchup. Figgy has been finished twice in his career, and both came at the hands of Brandon Moreno. If Moreno can finish Figgy, so can Chito.
Cue that Black Rob "Whoa!" Like whoa! Figgy is the (-150) favorite, and Chito is the live-ass (+130) dog. I couldn't drop an Andy Jack on Chito fast enough. Figgy's takedowns and top control are why he is the favorite. If Chito can defend one or two takedowns, Figgy will concede to a stand-up scrap. Standing and banging are in Figgy's blood; he won't shy away if his ground game is ineffective. And if that's the case, Chito has more diverse attacks and is the more dangerous striker. There's a ton of value in Chito. Although he isn't a high-output striker, his style creates potential fight-ending sequences in nearly every fight. I've been getting burned by dogs lately, but there's too much value on Chito to pass him up. Chito Vera via decision. Put it on wax.
Props
Chito: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1100) Dec (+300)
Figgy: TKO/KO (+1600) Sub (+1200) Dec (-110)
Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
Tony The Tiger, Tony Soprano, Tony Montana, Tony Gwynn, Tony Hawk, Tony Peperoni, and Tony! Toni! Toné!: Tony Ferguson is in the hall of fame of Tonys. I don't give a fook if he has lost one hundred fights in a row. Tony is the reverse Joe DiMaggio; he's on an unbeatable fifty-six-game hitless streak. Statistically, he should have fooked around and won by accident by now. His Sherdog record looks like traffic after Burning Man. Not even the little boy in Angels in the Outfield could pray for a Tony dub right meow. Angels in the Octagon: the entire arena has to stand up and start flapping their arms in support of Tony, and maybe he'll have a chance. Tony fans are like the Guardian (Indians if you want to be a Richard about it) fans sitting in the bleachers in Major League. They got bags over their heads like classic Saints fans. When it rains, it pours. It's been raining L's on Tony for forty days and forty nights. Tony will have to build a fookin arc soon. But one win can change all that.
On a positive note, Tony gave Paddy a better fight than my Boy King Green did last weekend. Tony had some good moments, which is more than I can say for King Green. Maybe Tony needs to start throwing sand again or blowing on dandelion petals. If Tony can stay on his feet, he can win this fight. Tony used to have a dangerous guard, using the rubber guard to create striking opportunities from his back and cinching up chokes in transition. Those days are Dead and Gone like J.T. and T.I. Now, he accepts the position and waits for the round to end so he can stand up again. Tony rocks a sixty-seven percent takedown defense, but more telling is that he's rarely able to get back to his feet. If Tony can stay upright for long stretches, he can win. If he ends up on his back, he will lose. Again.
Fantasy-wise, Tony has landed fifty to eighty significant strikes in his last three bouts. I would expect the low end against Chiesa, as Tony will likely spend ample time on his back. His only value is in a finish... a submission finish. Check it: Tony is the D'arce Knight; he's handy with D'arce/Brabo/Anaconda chokes, and Chiesa's kryptonite is D'arce/Brabo/Anaconda chokes. Chiesa has been sub'd five times in his career, and four came via D'arce/Brabo, including two of his last three losses. So, you're saying there's a chance! There's always a chance, mfs. Only quitting can remove a chance created by hope, and after seven straight L's, it's safe to say Tony ain't no fookin' quitter.
Michael Chiesa's nickname is "Maverick," but in his last three bouts, he has been more like Goose getting his ass shot down by a bogie. He's amid a dogfight with L's, "I can't shake 'em! I can't shake 'em." Not even the flares that redirect heat-seeking missiles can save his ass right now. His thumb is itching to press that eject button. Behind enemy lines is where he will land if he loses to Tony Ferguson. Ain't nobody trying to be the first guy to lose to Tony in five years. At one time, Chiesa was an underrated grappler with big dubs on his record, including submissions of Beneil Dariush and Jim Miller. He has ten submissions in sixteen career wins and has suffocating takedowns and top control. This fight is tailormade for him to return to his roots of dominating from the top position.
But Chiesa's major malfunction can be noted in his record. Zero career TKO/KOs. His striking isn't even a misdemeanor if he hits you in public. He has two left hands. He has hands like Lego people; they fall off and rattle around in the vacuum cleaner. He has hands like Stephen Hawking. Overall, his striking is awkward, like blind dates (Because they run into shit on the way to the dinner table). Chiesa's issues stem from his stance. He keeps his hands almost fully extended, trying to make them quicker to the target because he lacks hand speed. Reducing the distance makes up for economy shipping from India hand speed. And because his hands have no room to travel, they can't develop any power on their way to the target. Hence, zero TKO/KOs. This fight will get interesting if Chiesa can't keep Tony on the mat.
Chiesa is the (-700) favorite, and Tony is the disrespectful (+450) ASPCA neglected commercial dog. Damn. I didn't think the odds would be that bad. But it's hard to argue with them. Tony hasn't been able to stay on his feet, and Chiesa is a dominant wrestler/grappler. Tony would have more of a shot if this fight was at lightweight, where they both spent significant time. They might have to send Tony to the Contender Series to get a dub if he can't find a way to win this one. Best believe I'll be standing in my living room waving my arms, praying for some Angels in the Octagon on Saturday night. Michael Chiesa via decision. Put that shit on wax.
Props
Chiesa: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+120) Dec (+125)
Tony: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+1200) Dec (+1000)
Mackenzie Dern vs. Lupita Godinez
I love these ladies. These ladies would serve anyone reading this like a bar and grill. But that's okay because they're professional fighters. These ladies represent the highest level of wrestling/grappling in women's MMA. Mackenzie Dern has a dub over Virna Jandiroba, and Loopy Godinez recently lost a close decision to Jandi, a fight I thought Godinez won. But when you have two elite grapplers, the fight usually ends up being a tepid kickboxing match. As was the case when Dern fought Jandiroba. But if you're a fellow Girl Dad, grab your lil' lady and let her draw some inspiration from these two savages.
D'arce Anaconda & Beyond. Mackenzie Dern is a submission depot. She's a submission Basquiat. She bends you like corners when she gets you to the mat. For most reading this, that doesn't sound like a bad time. Dern is a human Rubik's Cube on the mat – a human finger trap. She's the female Dexter, walking down death row wishing a mf would. She would submit the Nightstalker, John Wayne Gacy, Ted Bundy, and Jeffrey Dahmer – she could submit your favorite serial killer's favorite serial killer. But although Dern has better submission and is more dangerous on the mat than Loopy, Loopy is the better wrestler. Dern's major malfunction is her takedowns. You can put her takedowns out on the curb on Tuesday mornings, and they'll come and pick them up. She has no traditional-level change takedowns in her arsenal. Like Ronda Rousey, Dern relies on the clinch exclusively to score takedowns. Overall, Dern couldn't take down a flyer.
Dern is a world-class grappler and an amateur striker. She throws hands like tantrums. Dern is a petulant striker. She has that daytime talk show circuit striking, sleeping cheaters, and bullies on Jerry Springer and Jenny Jones. Instead of supplementing her wrestling with her striking, Dern is the opposite. Her striking is so overly aggressive and wild that opponents have no choice but to completely flee the pocket, leaving her with no opportunity to initiate the clinch. But she doesn't lack for aggression and has sneaky power behind her looping haymakers. Fantasy-wise, I'd stay away from Dern. I don't think she can submit Loopy or get her consistently to the mat. On the feet, she averages three SLpM and needs top control to land with any volume.
Don't fook with the Godinez sisters. A Band of Sisters. Loopy has two sisters who are world-champion wrestlers. They're a family of Universal Soldiers. That's like having three Shelly Marshs running the block. They're like the sister version of the Watt brothers in the NFL. The Godinez sisters are three ladies I would hire for my Secret Service detail. Loopy may not have the wrestling accolades of her sisters, but she is one of the best pure wrestlers in the UFC. If she gets hold of you, you're going for a ride like Six Flags. She has infinitely better takedowns than Dern, but Dern has more dangerous Jitz.
I say all that to say this: Loopy doesn't wrestle. She stands and bangs instead of using her superior ground game. That's like Michael Vick wanting to be a pocket QB – Shaq wanting to shoot spot-up threes like Ray Allen instead of tea-bagging dudes under the rim. Loopy could be GODinez, but she plays too much. Standing up too fast is more dangerous than Loopy's striking. Not waiting thirty minutes after you eat to go swimming is more dangerous than her striking. But against Mackenzie Dern is the one time I won't be yelling, "Take her down, Loopy!" for fifteen minutes. She has to win this fight on her feet. And she can because she's the more technical striker and commits to combinations, averaging over four SLpM. If this hits the mat, Loopy will be in trouble. She showed excellent sub-defense against Jandiroba, but Dern has more diverse submissions than Jandi.
Dern is the (-130) favorite, and Godinez is the (+110) live-ass dog. If Dern can't get Loopy to the mat, it will be an FX Nip/Tuck affair on the feet. I would give Godinez the edge in striking as she is the more composed striker. Dern is the bigger finishing threat, but Godinez has never been finished. The play for Godinez is strictly a win-by-decision. There's a ton of value in Godinez as a straight-up dog, but I think Dern will be able to tie her up just enough to eke out a decision. And you already know this one has split written all over it like illicit solicitations all over a Valero restroom stall door. Mackenzie Dern via decision. Wax on, wax off.
Props
Dern: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+250) Dec (+275)
Godinez: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+2200) Dec (+120)
Prelims
$7k Value Menu
Elvis Brenner ($7.9k): Treehouse of Horror Eddie Bravo is back. Fook a dog, this guy has that feral dingo in him. After he TKO'd Guram Kutateladze, an elite kickboxer, I'll never count Brenner out again. He has some of that Steve Garcia in him. Most importantly, Brenner is a finisher. Of his sixteen career dubs, he has three TKO/KOs and eleven subs. We haven't even seen much of his offensive grappling yet. On the feet, Brenner is an arsonist, engaging in nothing but firefights. He will be up against a forgotten killer, Joel Alvarez. Alvarez has nasty Muay Thai and Charles Oliveira subs. Alvarez has a one hundred percent finishing rate, which includes seventeen subs. This will be one of the best fights on the card, and Brenner will be a live-ass dog in any fight that he is one. Brenner's upside includes a possible finish, but I think this will be a firefight on the feet that will create solid striking stats for both fighters.
Chito ($7.8k): I'm a little worried about Chito's ability to stay upright, but I think he is one of the few Value Menu fighters who isn't an all-or-nothing option. He will have plenty of opportunities to land significant strikes, and he is the more dangerous fighter against Figueiredo. Figgy can be broken inside the cage. He can be rattled and distracted. Chito can't be broken like pinky promises. If he landed that liver shot against O'Malley ten seconds sooner in that fifth round... But Chito is always a gamble. You never know when he'll go out there and sit on his hands and not engage for long stretches. For as long as it stays standing, I think their angry demeanors alone will spark a firefight. And Chito can land enough strikes to avoid a complete Fantasy bust.
Michal Oleksiejczuk ($7.2k) / Alonzo Menifield ($7.5k): This is a double dip. These two are in identical situations and are all-or-nothing options. Both have upset potential and upset potential. Na'h mean? Oleks and Menifield are live dogs whose paths to victory are almost exclusively via TKO/KO. Menifield's last appearance wasn't one. It ended before I could clear a bong rip. Menifield looked like he just panicked at the sound of the bell and ran straight into a Carlos Ulberg right hand. But before that, he had Dustin Jacoby hobbling around the cage on Kenny Smith's legs and cracked Jimmy Crute's ass twice. And if nothing else, Oleksiejczuk will test Shara's chin. Early and often. He may end up face-first on the mat, but you know what that means; he went out on his shield. But as both fighters could have massive upsides, they could just as easily be on the wrong end of a long-short night.
$6k Clearance Rack
Mohammad Yahya ($6.9k): It has come to this. I'm picking this guy over Tony Ferguson on the clearance rack by the restroom. Mohammad Yahya looks like he may have a day longer than Tony before he starts growing mold. Tony is clearly labeled "Consume Within 24 Hours." I wasn't impressed with Yahya in his debut, and I'm not sure what he's supposed to be good at. But he is at least in a winnable fight against a JAG who lost his debut by playing the role of Meek to Marc Diakiese's Diddy. Yahya and his opponent, Kaue Fernandes, are as mid as you can get, like C-'s holding on to a passing grade. But there is more of a chance of scoring some low to moderate significant strikes with Yahya while on his way down in flames like the Hindenburg than with Tony, who will spend a lot of time on his back.
Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers
Alonzo Menifield (+180): Alonzo Menifield has the stupid power to match the stupid game plan he implemented against Carlos Ulberg. His opponent, Azamat Murzakanov, is a better technical boxer than Menifield. But Murzakonov waved a massive red flag against Dustin Jacoby and Tafon Nchukwi: His cardio. Murzakonov fades like Great Clips. And although Menifield also tends to slow down, his power carries for the full fifteen minutes. One of these guys will get got, and I think it's closer to a toss-up as to which one it will be.
Cory Sandhagen (+255): The Sandman can win this fight. His Achilles heel is giving up his back during grappling exchanges, which will result in instant death against Umar. But he is far from a TLC scrub from his back. He has slick Jitz, and if Nate Maness could at least survive on his back for fifteen minutes against Umar, Sandhagen should be able to rally to his feet from time to time. For as long as it stays standing, Sandhagen can stick and move along the outside and outpoint Umar. Sandhagen will force Umar to go full Belal and wrestle for twenty-five minutes, which is a rare ability even among world-class wrestlers at any level. Likely, Sandhagen will have to make a furious comeback, but I think this return to his striking roots will serve him well.
Chito (+130): Plus-money Chito. Enough said.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (+205): There are some live dogs this week, and Oleks is one of them. When he loses, it's almost always by submission. His awkward style makes him a problem for anyone he fights. Oleks gives himself chances to win the fight every time he throws a strike. He doesn't throw anything without fight-ending intentions, and Shara's chin has yet to be tested. In a guaranteed kickboxing match with four-ounce gloves, Oleks has a chance against anyone.
Pick 'Em
Joel Alvarez (-185) vs. Elvis Brenner (+160)
Winner: Joel Alvarez
Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3
Azamat Murzakonov (-220) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+180)
Winner: Azamat Murzakonov
Method: TKO Rd.2
Mohammad Yahya (+305) vs. Kaue Fernandes (-410)
Winner: Kaue Fernandes
Method: Decision
Shamil Gaziev (-245) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (+205)
Winner: Shamil Gaziev
Method: Decision
Guram Kutateladze (-205) vs. Jordan Vucenic (+175)
Winner: Guram Kutateladze
Method: Decision
Victoria Dudakova (-175) vs. Sam Hughes (+150)
Winner: Sam Hughes
Method: Decision
Jai Herbert (-150) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+130)
Winner: Jai Herbert
Method: Decision
Sedriques Dumas (-225) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+185)
Winner: Sedriques Dumas
Method: Decision
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