Castle Pines Golf Club - Denver, CO This week the top 50 golfers on the PGA Tour head to Castle Pines Golf Club in Denver for the BMW Championship, the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the Top 30 golfers playing their way to the Tour Champio…
This week the top 50 golfers on the PGA Tour head to Castle Pines Golf Club in Denver for the BMW Championship, the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the Top 30 golfers playing their way to the Tour Championship at East Lake next week!
Par 72, 8100 yards but plays way less than that around 7200 yards with the elevation of 6000 feet above sea level, ton of elevation changes, Jack Nicklaus design, water in play on ten holes, 77 bunkers, three of the four Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field as they're downhill, the Par 3s are long and very tough, undulating and firm fairways around 30 yards in width, thick 4 inch rough off the fairways, average sized greens that are elevated and a blend of bentgrass and poa with heavy undulation that should play firm and fast, some greens are surrounded by thick rough while others have tightly mowed runoff areas
Tournament Notes
Second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the Top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings advancing to East Lake next week for the Tour Championship with staggered starting strokes based on place in standings
This event has been played at a variety of courses over the years
No cut event
First professional golf tournament held here since 2006 and every hole on the course has been redesigned since making it essentially a new course on tour.
Jason Day was the only golfer in the field that played here in 2006
In 50,000 simulations, 100% of golfers currently ranked 1-20 advanced to East Lake and 99.95% ranked 21-23 advanced, really only leaving 7 spots up for grabs to move on to the Tour Championship next week (as per simulation from datagolf)
Form matters in the FedEx Cup Playoffs
The last week of the One & Done season
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Opportunities Gained, Bogie Avoidance
Field
50 golfers - Elite field with the top 50 in FedEx Cup Standings
Last Year's Champion (Olympia Fields): Viktor Hovland (-17)
Runner Up Last Year (Olympia Fields): Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler (-15)
One and Done: Max Greyserman (who cares)
One and Done Considerations: All the elites. Just take the best available (I have none)
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12300: +450 - By far the best golfer in the world and he's absolutely crushed no cut events this season with elite fields, this feels like an event he's going to win and even with the smaller field his odds didn't really get worse this week vs. last week, his putting sucked last week and he still came in fourth at the FedEx St. Jude, 4,1,7,1,41,1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1,10,3,6,17,5 finishes this season, 1st in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, used some boosts I had on FanDuel
Viktor Hovland: 10400: +2000 - Defending champion of this event, playing solid coming off his second place finish at the FedEx St. Jude last week where he gained 7.5 strokes T2G, 2,MC,46,20,MC,15,3,24 finishes in his last eight events, 6th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives, 48th in Par 3 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 48th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 30th in Bogie Avoidance
Tony Finau: 9700: +3300 - Playing incredible golf T2G and hasn't been able to get a win, 16,12,MC,5,3,8,17,18,52,12,55,2,MC,45,13,19,47,6,25,38 finishes this season, 2nd in Approach, 38th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Good Drives, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogie Avoidance
Aaron Rai: 8600: +5000 - Just won a couple weeks ago and cashed in for me at the Wyndham after I've rode him the entire second half of the season, playing great golf with 16,1,75,4,7,2,19,14,32,39,4,MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19 finishes in his last 18 events, 4th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives, 20th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 19th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 24 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
I hit the winner on Viktor Hovland at this tournament last year
Final week of One & Done. I have no one left and I'm so far out of it that my pick doesn't matter in the slightest.
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