I had two guys that finished T2 and three that finished T6 last week (including having both 54 hole leaders) but couldn't hit a winner at the Rocket Mortgage. This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run in the Quad Cities for the John Deere Clas…
I had two guys that finished T2 and three that finished T6 last week (including having both 54 hole leaders) but couldn't hit a winner at the Rocket Mortgage. This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run in the Quad Cities for the John Deere Classic. Let's bounce back with another winner.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7289 yards, bentgrass throughout, top ten easiest course on tour on a yearly basis, five of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, the three Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field along with the driveable Par 4 14th, wide tree lined fairways guarded by large bunkers in the landing zones, 4 inch rough is fairly penal but doesn't come in play that often since driving accuracy is ~71% (tour average ~62%), fairways usually play firm with a good amount of roll with lot of uneven lies and undulations in the fairway, three water hazards in play on three holes, large greens guarded by bunkers and collection areas, greens are very easy to hit and very receptive with ~70% GIR (vs. tour average ~66%) and slow with a bit of undulation and slope, one of the easiest course on tour for putting with almost 20% of putts from 15-25 feet going in the hole, getting up and down is difficult though if you miss the green, 76 bunkers on the course that were all completely rebuilt and slightly changed after the 2021 event, this place is a birdiefest with the most birdies on tour and there are ten holes with a birdie rate of 19.7%+
Tournament Notes
There have been 23 first time winners here since 1971, the most of any PGA Tour event
Since 2008, 8 of the 15 winners were in the T50 of the OWGR (6 of the 13 were in the T20) and two of the ones outside of that were Spieth and Bryson when they won, who went on to become superstars. This stat doesn't mean much though this week with how weak the field is
In 2018, every golfer that finished in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards and all besides Varner gained from 175-200 yards. In 2019, all but Frittelli (who was putting lights out on the way to his win) and Chris Stroud, everyone in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards.
This used to be the last chance into the Open Championship but that is no longer the case with the current schedule.
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (20.5%), 125-150 yards (20%), 150-175 yards (18.9%)
Corollary Courses
Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions) - Lots of winners of this had success at Kapalua, but barely any are in the field this week
Field
156 golfers - Horrible field strength
Defending Champion: Sepp Straka (-21)
Runner Up Last Year: Alex Smalley, Brendon Todd (-19)
One and Done: Sepp Straka
One and Done Considerations: Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka
Players
Sepp Straka: 10400: +1700 - Defending champion and playing really well recently, 1,MC,28 finishes here, 23,56,5,5,MC,8,5,16,MC,16 finishes in his last ten events, 10th in Approach, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 53rd in Par 5 Scoring, 113th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 1st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 56th in Proximity 200+ yards, 116th in SG: ARG, 44th in Putting, 35th in Opportunities Gained, 44th in Birdie+ Gained
Aaron Rai: 10000: +2000 - Right back on him off my wheel of losers, was tied with Akshay as a 54 hole leader last week where he finished T2, first time playing this event, 2,19,14,32,39,4,MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19 finishes in his last 13 events, 2nd in Approach, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 35th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, 29th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 75th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 15th in Proximity 200+ yards, 27th in SG: ARG, 55th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 75th in Birdie+ Gained
Davis Thompson: 9600: +2300 - Playing really well T2G recently, coming off his T2 finish at the Rocket Mortgage last week, 2,9,27,MC,17,MC,18,45,21 finishes in his last nine events, finished 31st his only time here last year, 36th in Approach, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 34th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 30th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 16th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 123rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 115th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained
Keith Mitchell: 9200: +4000 - First in my model again last week after he missed the cut last week, as I said last week he seems like he's playing the best of all of the lousy golfers on tour that haven't won this year, MC,10,37,MC,20,14,MC,17,73,9,19,17 finishes in his last twelve events, 42,MC,7 finishes here, 1st in Approach, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 21st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 11th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 20th in Proximity 200+ yards, 107th in SG: ARG, 135th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Lucas Glover: 8700: +5500 - Playing really well this season although his last three events haven't been great in any facet of the game, former winner here in 2021 with 6,MC,1,10,25,MC,MC,15,66,MC,11,MC,32 finishes here, 44,MC,MC,12,43,16,33,20,25,11 finishes in his last ten events, 9th in Approach, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 31st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 114th in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Proximity 200+ yards, 56th in SG: ARG, 121st in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 36th in Birdie+ Gained
Andrew Novak: 7500: +10000 - Pops in my model for a cheaper golfer this week, 20,14,MC,30,58,53,17,MC,9,8,8 finishes in his last eleven events, 42,30 finishes here the last two years, 15th in Approach, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 18th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 52nd in Par 5 Scoring, 20th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 123rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 35th in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 28th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5
Model
Approach (25%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
Ownership percentage could play more of a factor due to the ridiculously weak field
This could be a good week to catch great numbers live, especially on Thursday and Friday
9 and 18 are the two hardest holes on the course, so not real advantage for the wraparound on Showdown slates (although there is a very little bit of an edge to guys starting on 10)
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