I hit Davis Thompson's win last weekend at the John Deere Classic for my fourth profitable week in the last five, bouncing from the previous week's meltdown on Sunday. This week the PGA Tour heads overseas this week for the Genesis Scottish Open…
I hit Davis Thompson's win last weekend at the John Deere Classic for my fourth profitable week in the last five, bouncing from the previous week's meltdown on Sunday. This week the PGA Tour heads overseas this week for the Genesis Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club for a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour with a loaded field before The Open Championship next week.
Course Breakdown
Par 70 (used to be a Par 71), 7237 yards, the scoring in this event is highly dependent on weather with wind being the biggest defense on the course with the winning scores ranging from -7 to -22, links style course, different setup than a typical Par 70 course with ten Par 4s (seven ranging from 448-505 yards), five Par 3s and three Par 5s, only four holes play alongside the ocean but the course has all of the other elements of a links course, average to above average sized rolling fairways with a good amount of undulation and mounds, fairways usually play firm and fast, deep fairway pot bunkers that are pretty hard to get out of, first cut of rough isn't penal whatsoever if you just miss the fairway but gets much thicker as you go farther out, a few trees and some high fescue in areas if you miss wildly off the tee, pretty slow fescue greens that can see big inconsistencies in speed from hole to hole, elevated and large massively undulating upside down bowl shaped greens that should play firm but slow, lots of pot bunkers guarding greens and large runoff areas
Tournament Notes
This is a co-sanctioned event by the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, the third year this has been the case
This will be the sixth year this course has hosted this event for the DP World Tour
Final event to qualify for The Open
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Opportunities Gained
Field
156 golfers - good field strength along with the best DP World Tour players
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy (-15)
Runner Up Last Year: Robert MacIntyre (-14)
One and Done: Aaron Rai
One and Done Considerations: Rory, Xander, Fleetwood, Rai
Players
Xander Schauffele: 11700: +900 - Besides Scottie he's been the best player on Tour this season, won here in 2022 in the first year that it was a co-sanctioned event, 42,1,T10 finishes here the past three years, 13,7,8,1,2,18,8,5,2,25,4,54,9,3,10 finishes in his 15 events this season, 5th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 10th in Good Drives, 15th in Sand Saves, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 11th in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, has hit T10s in 11 of his 15 events this season and at around even money I think this is a great bet which I'll jump on for 2 units
Tommy Fleetwood: 9900: +2000 - Fantastic course history here including his playoff loss to Aaron Rai in 2020 (when it was just a DP World Tour event), 6,4,T26,2 finishes here the last four years, 15,16,20,21,26,13,49,3,7,35 finishes in his last ten events, 45th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives, 5th in Sand Saves, 21st in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 51st in Par 5 Scoring, 132nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 52nd in Opportunities Gained, 112th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance, also taking him on the T10 and T5
Aaron Rai: 8300: +4500 - Former winner here when he beat Fleetwood in a playoff in 2020 (when it was just a DP World Tour event), MC,MC,T35,1,MC finishes here, playing great golf lately having been at the top of the leaderboard the last two weeks, 7,2,19,14,32,39,4,MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19 finishes in his last 14 events, 3rd in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 1st in Good Drives, 84th in Sand Saves, 54th in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 25th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking him on the T10 and T5
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
I'm changing up my card a bit this week with a smaller card but taking T10s and T5s on these guys
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