For the first time ever, the UFC is headed to Saudi Arabia. They were supposed to do that back in March, but the quality of that card was so lackluster that the debut was pushed back to summertime. This card is vastly better than that one was, to the point that the main slate feels like a pay-per-view undercard.
The main event was supposed to be a massive Middleweight bout between former champion Robert Whittaker and unbeaten prospect Khamzat Chimaev, but Chimaev fell ill and got replaced by Ikram Aliskerov. That was one of five cancellations/alterations on this card, but most of the main card has stayed intact and the card is still very good. The co-main event is a matchup of Heavyweight contenders, with former interim title challenger Sergey Pavlovich taking on former Bellator Heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov. The featured bout is a quality contest between Daniel Rodriguez and former Ultimate Fighter winner and former interim Middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum, while the main card opener between knockout artist Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir has potential to end at any moment.
The prelims are a good slate despite some good fights being scrapped or altered, and the start time is one that benefits people around the world. If that's not enough, the whole thing will be nationally televised, which means you don't need an ESPN+ subscription to view any portion of it. Long story short, in a month that has been pretty turbulent for the UFC, things are looking good at the moment and this card is a key reason for that. But will those vibes stand true as the event progresses? Here's how I see it going.
Preliminary Card (Noon/11am CT, ESPN and ESPN+)
Lee Chang-Ho (9-1) vs. Xiao Long (26-8)
The first fight on the card is a tournament final bout, as Xiao Long and Lee Chang-ho will battle to see who will become the Road to UFC Season 2 Bantamweight tournament. Both of them have good records, neither of them won fights against anyone of note before the tournament, and it's hard to gauge whether either will amount to much in the UFC. Long has a lot more experience, but most of his fights were against cans. He's gone the distance in four of his last five fights, but does have finishing ability. Lee is more of a finisher than Long is, but if I have to pick one, I'll go with the veteran. Prediction: Long via decision.
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (8-0) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (15-6)
Magomed is an unbeaten prospect, Ribeiro lost his UFC debut in under two minutes and the odds are one-sided for a reason. That's all there is to it with this one. Prediction: Gadzhiyasulov via decision or late tko.
Kyung-ho Kang (19-10, 1 NC) vs. Muin Gafurov (18-6)
I'm genuinely intrigued about this fight. Kang has only fought four times since 2019 and has gone the distance in five of his last six fights, but he's also won eight of his last ten UFC fights and is a proven vet at this point. Gafurov is a finishing machine who's ended 17 of his 18 wins before the final bell, made waves throughout his ONE career and won the LFA Bantamweight title before coming to the UFC. Gafurov is 0-2 inside the octagon, but he's shown flashes and will fight with urgency here. It's risky to pick him, especially against someone who has only been finished twice in their career, but I'll take a chance and go for it. Prediction: Gafurov via decision.
Nick Dalby (23-4-1, 2 NC) vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (21-1-1)
Next is a Welterweight bout between Nick Dalby and Rinat Fakhretdinov. Fakhretdinov had won 20 straight before going to a draw in his last fight, while Dalby has won four in a row. It should be an interesting fight, even though it feels guaranteed to go the distance. Fakhretdinov has gone to the final bell in three of his last four fights, while Dalby has done the same in five of his last six fights. I'll go with the Russian in this instance. Prediction: Fakhretdinov via decision.
Felipe Lima (12-1) vs. Muhammad Naimov (11-2)
This fight was supposed to be between Naimov and Melsik Baghdasaryan, but Melsik got hurt on fight week and Felipe Lima stepped in on short notice. Lima's a surprisingly-good opponent for such short notice, winning 12 straight fights to date and coming off an OKTAGON MMA Bantamweight title win. Naimov will likely win, but I expect Lima to make him work for it. Prediction: Naimov via decision.
Nasrat Haqparast (16-5) vs. Jared Gooden (20-6, 1 NC)
In the headlining prelim bout, Nasrat Haqparast will look to extend his winning streak to four, as he takes on Jared Gooden. Like a lot of other prelim fighters on this card, he's become a decision machine as well, going the distance in nine of his last twelve fights. His fights are usually enjoyable, and he is 8-3 since dropping his UFC debut, so there's some stakes to this fight as well.
For Gooden, this is a chance to garner two notable wins in a row. He's coming off a shocking first round finish against Mark Madsen in November, giving him his first finish since mid-2017. He'll always be an inspiration for turning his life around after all he's been through, and his successes in the sport are worthy of recognition. I think he'll lose here, but I expect him to make it close. Prediction: Haqparast via decision.
Main Card (3/2c, ABC and ESPN+)
(7) Johnny Walker (21-8, 1 NC) vs. (9) Volkan Oezdemir (19-7)
On paper, the main card opener should be wildly entertaining. Walker has finished 19 of his 21 wins, 16 of them via knockout and has only gone the distance in five of his 30 pro fights. Oezdemir has 14 finishes of his own, including 12 knockouts. That said, this fight could get iffy. Walker has been rounding back to form of late, but he does get wacky and complacent at times. Oezdemir used to be a knockout artist, but he's only gotten two wins since 2019 and has gone the distance in three of his last four fights. I hope this fight is fun, and I'll go with Walker, but I'm not as hyped about this fight as I would've been a few years back. Prediction: Walker via tko, round 2.
Antonio Trocoli (12-3) vs. Sharabutdin Magomedov (12-0)
A short notice fight where one guy is a -500 favorite, despite having one UFC fight? I'd delve deeper and consider the upset, but this fight is so miniscule compared to most of the card that I'd rather move on instead. Prediction: Magomedov via tko, round 2.
Kelvin Gastelum (17-9, 1 NC) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (17-4)
In the featured bout, former Ultimate Fighter winner and former interim Middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum will take on Daniel Rodriguez. It's a huge fight for Gastelum, who hasn't had a win streak in over six years and is 2-6 in his last eight fights. He's not washed, but a loss might lead to him leaving the company. Rodriguez is solid, going 7-1 to start his UFC career, but has been finished in his last two fights. If Gastelum can't win this fight, he needs to move on. Prediction: Gastelum via decision.
(3 Sergey Pavlovich (18-2) vs. (5) Alexander Volkov (37-10)
In the power-packed co-main event, former interim title challenger Sergey Pavlovich taking on former Bellator Heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov. Both are predominantly strikers, both are ranked in the top five of the Heavyweight division and the winner will get one step closer to a title shot. Pavlovich is a knockout artist who has had nine straight fights end in the first round, going 7-2 in that span and 6-2 inside the octagon. He's coming off a 69-second loss to current interim champion Tom Aspinall, and a win here would get him back on track.
For Volkov, this fight is a chance to win four in a row and cement himself as a contender. His last loss was also to Aspinall, and he's finished all three of his opponents since then. He's the better grappler here, as evidenced by his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and he hasn't been finished due to strikes since the fight against Derrick Lewis in 2018. If he wants to win this fight, he'll need to survive the early onslaught. I think he will get through the early flurry, but I still think Pavlovich will win. Prediction: Pavlovich via tko, round 2.
(3) Robert Whittaker (25-7) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (15-1)
In the short-notice main event, former Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker will take on the surging Ikram Aliskerov. Whittaker was supposed to face unbeaten prospect Khamzat Chimaev, while Aliskerov was supposed to co-headline last week's card against Andre Muniz. However, after Muniz got hurt and Chimaev fell ill, Aliskerov went from facing Antonio Trocoli on short notice to headlining this card. It's a gigantic step up for him, but also a fascinating test.
Whittaker has black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and hapkido, as well as Goju-ryu Karate. He's a good wrestler, has power and crisp striking overall. He also has very good cardio, as evidenced by the fact that he's gone the distance in eight of his last ten fights. It's been over 10 years since his last loss to anyone other than Israel Adesanya in a title fight, or to current champion Dricus du Plessis. He's taken a slight step down of late, but he's still damn good and very-well rounded.
Aliskerov is really good too, and the odds reflect that. He's extremely skilled in Sambo, has looked great in his two UFC bouts, and his only loss was to Chimaev back in 2019. He's never faced anyone as good as Whittaker though, and this is probably too much, too soon for him, especially on short notice. I think Aliskerov will have his moments, but this fight has Whittaker via decision written all over it. Prediction: Whittaker via decision.
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