Alex Pereira (1.66) vs. Jiri Prochazka (2.25)
Pereira is 7-1 in UFC, 10-2 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-W
Prochazka is 4-1 in UFC, 30-4-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-W
Pereira (36) defended his LHW title for the first time against former Champion Jamahal Hill (KO) at UFC 300, finishing the fight with one of his trademark left hooks. He won the vacant belt when he finished Prochazka with strikes in their first fight at UFC 295 having earned that opportunity by beating a former LHW Champion in Jan Blachowicz (decision) at UFC 291. Decided to move up after losing his MW title against Israel Adesanya via brutal KO at UFC 287 - a title he had previously won when he rallied in the fifth round to finish Adesanya (KO) at UFC 281. Made himself the number one MW contender when he finished former UFC MW Champion Sean Strickland with strikes at UFC 276. The reason he was fast-tracked to a title shot after just three UFC fights was his history with Adesanya from their time as elite kickboxers in Glory; he bested him both times they fought, including a clean KO in the second bout. 2-0 in 2022 having beaten Bruno Silva (decision) in March, showcasing his ability to defend takedowns (albeit against someone not known for their offensive wrestling skills). Made his debut at UFC 268, negotiating a nervy first round against Andreas Michailidis before finishing the fight with a flying knee moments into the second round. Reached the pinnacle of kickboxing, finishing with a 33-7 record in kickboxing (including going 12-3 in premier kickboxing organisation Glory and winning their MW and LHW titles). Retired from kickboxing in 2021 to dedicate full-time to a career in MMA - it goes without saying that he immediately became one of, if not the most dangerous striker currently active in MMA. 2-1 in a brief flirtation with MMA in 2015/16 before returning to pick up a KO victory in LFA late in 2020. His only other MMA loss was in his professional debut against a strong opponent in Quemuel Ottoni (12-3). 21/33 and 8/10 wins by KO in kickboxing and MMA respectively. Was a huge MW, at 6'4 his frame is much better suited to compete at 205 lbs. Trains at Teixeira MMA & Fitness.
Prochazka (31) put himself in line for this title shot with victory over Aleksandr Rakic (KO) at UFC 300; it wasn't a vintage performance from the former LHW Champion but it did demonstrate how good his chin is and how difficult his relentless pressure is to deal with. He started well in the original contest with Alex Pereira at UFC 295 but got caught and finished with strikes in the second round. Was forced to vacate his LHW belt due to a serious shoulder injury suffered in training after winning the belt at UFC 275 when he submitted Glover Teixeira in the fifth round of a fight he was likely on his way to losing. Earned that LHW title shot with an extremely violent finish of Dominick Reyes (KO) in May 2021, finishing the fight with a brutal spinning back elbow having survived some dicey moments earlier in the fight. Made a very good first impression in his debut at UFC 251, knocking out a ranked LHW in Volkan Oezdemir at the beginning of the second round. One of the most high profile UFC signings of last five years having built quite a reputation with a 10-1 run in Rizin over a five year period. That spell saw him pick up notable wins over familiar names such as UFC veterans Fabio Maldonado (KO) and C.B. Dollaway (KO), Bellator fighters Karl Albrektsson (14-5) and Vadim Nemkov (17-2-1) as well as Brandon Halsey (12-5), Jake Heun (15-9) and Satoshi Ishii (25-13-1). The one setback in Rizin came against former Strikeforce LHW Champion Muhammed Lawal (KO) in the final of a one-night tournament where he had the disadvantage of a much more physically taxing semi-final. The Czech Republic native has other career setbacks against UFC veterans Abdul-Kerim Edilov (submission) and Bojan Velickovic (KO) and a draw against Mikhail Mokhnatkin (15-6-2). Very unorthodox style and a risk taker. One of the sport's most dangerous KO artists - 26/30 wins by KO, has only been to a decision twice in his 35-fight pro MMA career. Fights out of Jetsaam Gym Brno.
Prochazka's reckless all-offence style is asking for trouble against a striker of Pereira's calibre - we saw exactly why in the first fight. That said up until the KO Prochazka's unorthodox style was making Pereira very uncomfortable and it's very possible that he's able to hurt Pereira before he eats a big shot himself.
Prediction: Pereira by KO in round 1.
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Brian Ortega (2.10) vs. Diego Lopes (1.72)
Ortega is 8-3-1 in UFC, 16-3-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-L-W
Lopes is 3-1 in UFC, 24-6 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-W
Ortega (33) gained revenge over Yair Rodriguez (submission) in February in a rematch of their 2022 main event that saw Ortega dislocate his shoulder in the first round. He had the former FW Champion Alexander Volkanovski trapped in two very tight submissions at UFC 266 but ultimately ended up losing the decision. Earned that title shot after looking very good in a main event victory over the Korean Zombie (decision) in the last quarter of 2020; his striking in particular seemed to have improved significantly during his time off. Didn't fight for nearly two years following a fourth-round doctor stoppage loss against Max Holloway in his other unsuccessful crack at the FW title at UFC 231. Made himself the clear number one contender when he handed Frankie Edgar the first KO loss of his career at UFC 222 after establishing himself as a top 10 FW in 2017 with wins over Renato Moicano (submission) and Cub Swanson (submission). The Moicano finish capped an incredible run of four third round finishes in a row with others coming over Thiago Tavares (KO), Diego Brandao (submission) and Clay Guida (KO). Very much a fighter who can start slow but gets better as the contest progresses, which makes him a more dangerous fighter in five round fights. 2-0 in RFA prior to signing with the UFC with wins over Keoni Koch (5-1) and UFC veteran Jordan Rinaldi (submission). Made his UFC debut in 2014 with a submission of Mike de la Torre, although the win was later overturned to be a no contest when Ortega failed a post-fight drug test. Excellent BJJ (8/16 wins by submission), very creative off his back. Having entered the UFC as a fairly one-dimensional grappler, his striking has improved massively across his UFC career (which was necessary as he struggles to dictate where the fight takes place with offensive wrestling). Trains at Black House.
Lopes (29) continued the excellent start he has made to his UFC career with another first round finish of Sodiq Yusuff (KO) at UFC 300. That followed a very successful second half of 2023, picking up other fast stoppage victories over Gavin Tucker (submission) and Pat Sabatini (KO). Debuted on short notice against a ranked FW in Mosvar Evloev at UFC 288, losing a unanimous decision but emerging with plenty of credit for how competitive the contest was. Before that he was most familiar from a losing effort on the 2021 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series against Joanderson Brito (decision), who has since looked very good in the UFC. Highly experienced on the regional scene having competed for Fury FC (1-1) and Lux Fight League (6-0), picking up wins over UFC veterans Ronny Jason (decision), Marco Beltran (submission) and Masio Fullen (submission) in the latter and leaving as their FW Champion. Other losses since 2018 against Nate Richardson (11-5) and Amir Elzhurkaev (9-2). Other notable career wins over Gilberto Pantoja (16-5-1) and Alejandro Solano Rodriguez (29-16-1). 22/24 wins inside the distance (10 KO, 12 SUB). Trains at Lobo Gym MMA.
Massive step up in competition for Lopes, I think he's probably overdue a bit of a reality check.
Prediction: Ortega by submission in round 2.
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Anthony Smith (2.10) vs. Roman Dolidze (1.72)
Smith is 13-9 in UFC, 38-19 overall. Last 5: L-L-W-L-W
Dolidze is 6-3 in UFC, 12-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-L
Smith (35) is hoping to ride the momentum from his first round submission win over Vitor Petrino at UFC 301. Prior to that he had started to struggle, losing three of four including defeat to Khalil Rountree (KO) in December - the only success over that period was a split decision over Ryan Spann with other losses coming to Johnny Walker (decision) and Magomed Ankalaev (KO). Wins since 2020 over Devin Clark (submission), Jimmy Crute (KO) and Spann (submission). Headlined three times in 2020 with the first two of those ending in disappointment against Glover Teixeira (KO) - a fight finally getting waved off in the fifth round after at least a round of unnecessary punishment - and Aleksandar Rakic (decision). Unsuccessful in a LHW title shot against Jon Jones (decision) at UFC 235. 9-6 since moving up to LHW with other wins against Volkan Oezdemir (submission), Alexander Gustafsson (submission), Rashad Evans (KO) and Shogun (KO). Had a decent 4-2 run at MW with notable win over Hector Lombard (KO) and Andrew Sanchez (KO) - both third round comebacks - and setbacks against Thiago Santos (KO) and Cezar Ferreira (decision). Earlier in his career he was a one round fighter with serious pacing/cardio issues but he did seemingly manage to fix those issues. Originally came across in the Strikeforce merger - getting cut after a submission loss to Antonio Braga Neto - but a 7-0 run outside the organisation (including 2-0 in Bellator) was enough to convince the UFC to re-sign him. 2-2 in Strikeforce. 34/38 wins inside the distance (19 KO, 15 SUB) but has now accumulated a concerning 11 KO losses. Trains at Factory X.
Dolidze (35) steps in on short notice and moves back up to LHW; we last saw him lose a sloppy main event against Nassourdine Imavov (decision) in February. He is now on a two-fight losing streak having been unlucky to lose a decision to Marvin Vettori in his only appearance last year at UFC 286. Prior to that he had enjoyed an incredible 2022, going 3-0 - all finishes - including the biggest win of his career when he pulled off a unique calf slicer sweep and finished a trapped Jack Hermansson with strikes in December. First round wins earlier that year over Phil Hawes (KO) and Kyle Daukaus (KO). 4-3 as a UFC MW, suffering the first defeat of his career against Trevin Giles (decision) before the first of four wins in a row against Laureano Staropoli (decision). Started his UFC career 2-0 as a LHW, finishing Khadis Ibragimov (KO) in the first round of his debut and following that up with a dominant grappling display against John Allan (decision) before deciding to move down and become one of the most physically imposing MWs on the UFC roster. Spent most of his regional career competing in the Ukrainian-based WWFC organisation. Two good regional wins over Michal Pasternak (16-10) and Eder de Souza (19-11). 10/12 wins inside the distance (7 KO, 3 SUB). High level wrestler. Striking looks stiff on the feet but throws with power. His muscled frame saw him struggle with cardio as a MW due to his grappling-heavy style but that might not be such an issue back up at 205 lbs. Now training at Xtreme Couture.
I think Smith wins the striking but Dolidze is probably capable of wrestling his way to a decision victory too. Tough one to call, close to 50/50. I think I slightly lean Dolidze due to having less wear and tear on him.
Prediction: Dolidze by decision.
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Ian Garry (1.62) vs. Michael Page (2.30)
Garry is 7-0 in UFC, 14-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Page is 1-0 in UFC, 22-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Garry (26) picked up his biggest career win to date over Geoff Neal (decision) at UFC 299. 2023 was his best year in the UFC to date; he went 3-0 with the last of those an extremely one-sided decision win over Neil Magny at UFC 292. Earlier in the year he made a real statement with a first round head kick finish of Daniel Rodriguez having overcome some early adversity to leave Kenan Song's face a mess in a third round KO victory at UFC 285. Successful in both visits to the Octagon in 2022, although they were both fairly underwhelming performances against borderline UFC-level talents in Darian Weeks (decision) and Gabriel Green (decision). Scored a first round KO of Jordan Williams in his debut at UFC 268. Looks to be fulfilling his potential to be the next big Irish star; he followed in the footsteps of Conor McGregor in becoming a Cage Warriors Champion, winning their WW title against Jack Grant (20-8) and going 7-0 overall in the organisation. Had a meteoric rise to the UFC having only made his professional debut in 2019. Owns a regional win over a UFC veteran in Rostem Akman (KO), one other good career win over Mateusz Figlak (8-2). Also 6-1 as an amateur. Big WW at 6'3. 7/14 wins by KO. Now fighting out of elite MMA camp Kill Cliff MMA, although he has developed a bit of a reputation for overstaying his welcome at MMA gyms.
Page (37) made a great start to his UFC career at UFC 299, using his trademark unorthodox striking style to frustrate Kevin Holland and pick up a unanimous decision victory. He decided to test himself at the highest level of the sport after spending the best part of a decade fighting for Bellator, where he went 17-2. That record is slightly deceiving given that Bellator spent a long time building him up and protecting him from strong offensive wrestlers. The losses came against former Bellator WW Champion Douglas Lima (KO) - later avenged by split decision - and Logan Storley (15-3). The pick of his other career wins are over Goiti Yamauchi (29-6), Derek Anderson (18-4-1), David Rickels (22-6-2), plus UFC veterans Shinsho Anzai (KO), Paul Daley (decision) and Charlie Ontiveros (KO). Flashy striker, capable of spectacular highlight reel finishes - such as his flying knee KO of Evangelista Santos that left a severe dent in his forehead. 13/22 wins by KO. Very long and lean for WW (6'3). Trains at London Shootfighters.
We haven't seen Garry need to use his offensive wrestling in the UFC yet and I think he might need to in order to win this. I could see him failing to get takedowns and the striking being a bit of a feint contest - hopefully I'm wrong but I could see this being a really poor fight.
Prediction: Page by decision.
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Cub Swanson (3.00) vs. Andre Fili (1.40)
Swanson is 14-9 in UFC, 29-13 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-W
Fili is 11-10-1 in UFC, 23-11-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-W-L
Swanson (40) turned back the clock last August when he defeated Hakeem Dawodu (decision). He lost his only fight of 2022; Jonathan Martinez forced the referee to waive the contest off due to a series of nasty leg kicks. Has enjoyed a bit of a late career resurgence, going 4-2 in his last six with other wins over Darren Elkins (KO), Daniel Pineda (KO) and Kron Gracie (decision) with the other setback a quick loss to Giga Chikadze (KO). The Gracie win snapped a four fight losing streak that began with a main event setback against Brian Ortega (submission) at the end of 2017 before other losses against Frankie Edgar (decision), Renato Carneiro (submission) and Shane Burgos (decision). Went into that Ortega fight with momentum off the back of with four consecutive wins over Artem Lobov (decision), Doo Ho Choi (decision - fight of the year candidate), Hacran Dias (decision) and Tatsuya Kawajiri (decision) in 2016/17. Lost back-to-back fights to elite FWs in Edgar and Max Holloway (submission) in 2014/15, which ended his hopes of a title shot following six straight wins to begin his UFC career - including some big names in Jeremy Stephens (decision), Charles Oliveira (KO) and Dustin Poirier (decision). Came across in the WEC merger, went 5-3 in that organisation including an 8-second KO title shot loss to Jose Aldo. Well-rounded skill set, judo and BJJ background as well as boxing. Over 17 years as a pro, moving down to fight at BW for the first time. 13/29 wins by KO, 7/13 losses by submission despite owning a BJJ black belt. Long time member of Jackson Wink MMA but has now moved on to train at a UFC gym in California.
Fili (33) was finished in the first round by Dan Ige (KO) in February. His whole UFC career has been defined by inconsistency so it's no surprise that he finished 2023 with his own first round KO of Lucas Almeida. Other losses since the beginning of 2020 to Nathanial Wood (decision), Joanderson Brito (KO), Bryce Mitchell (decision) and Sodiq Yusuff (decision) - his only other wins over the same period were narrow split decision wins over Bill Algeo and Charles Jourdain, although he was unlucky to have to settle for a no contest with Daniel Pineda when an accidental eye poke spoiled a fight he was well ahead in. - he was unfortunate in the latter when he couldn't continue due to an eye-poke in a fight he was clearly winning. His best spell in the UFC was when he won four in five with wins over Sheymon Moraes (KO), Myles Jury (decision), Dennis Bermudez (decision) and Artem Lobov (decision) either side of a loss to Michael Johnson (decision). Alternated wins and losses for the first four years of his UFC career, although he did have some tough match-ups with losses against Max Holloway (submission), Yair Rodriguez (KO) and Calvin Kattar (decision). Other UFC wins over Felipe Arantes (decision), Gabriel Benitez (KO) and Hacran Dias (decision). 10/23 wins by decision (including 7/11 in UFC). Fights out of Team Alpha Male.
This is likely a competitive three round kickboxing contest, I wouldn't at all be surprised if it ends up a split decision.
Prediction: Swanson by decision.
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Ricky Simon (1.44) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (2.87)
Simon is 8-4 in UFC, 20-5 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-L-L
Oliveira is 1-0 in UFC, 20-3 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-W
Simon (31) has suffered back-to-back losses against Mario Bautista (decision) and Yadong Song (KO) over the last 15 months. Those setbacks came on the heels of five wins on the bounce, the most impressive of which was handing Jack Shore (submission) the first loss of his career halfway through 2022. Outstanding in 2021, going 3-0 with the final of those a statement performance against Raphael Assuncao (KO). Other wins in that streak against Ray Borg (decision), Gaetano Pirrello (submission) and Brian Kelleher (decision). His other two UFC losses also came back-to-back in the second half of 2019, dropping a decision to Rob Font and losing to Urijah Faber (KO). Started his UFC career very well with wins over Merab Dvalishvili (submission - in bizarre fashion with the referee only realising he was unconscious after the final bell), Montel Jackson (decision) and Rani Yahya (decision). Signed as reigning LFA BW Champion, winning the title in a five round unanimous decision win over UFC veteran Chico Camus and defending it with a quick KO of Vinicius Zani (11-7-1). Appeared on the first season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, winning a split decision over Donavon Frelow (6-5) but not doing enough to earn a UFC contract. Also competed for Titan FC, where he beat UFC veteran Alex Soto (decision) and picked up his only other pro loss against UFC's Anderson dos Santos (submission). 10/20 wins by decision. Trains at Gracie Barra Portland.
Oliveira (28) scored a serious contender for KO of the year when he finished Bernardo Sopai with a flying knee with just 19 seconds remaining. The aggressive Brazilian punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round KO of Victor Madrigal (15-5) on last year's Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. Prior to that he went 5-1 in UAE Warriors, winning their BW Championship against Xavier Alaoui (14-6) and defending against Sylvester Chipfumbu (10-6) before losing his belt to Ali Taleb (10-1). Other good wins in that organisation over Hikaru Yoshino (12-4), Sultan Zholdoshbek (18-2) and Furkatbek Yokubov (11-4). Other career losses to UFC veteran Cristian Quinonez (KO) and Adriano Ramos (13-5). 16/20 wins by KO as well as all three losses. Fights out of Sombra Team.
Massive step up in competition for Oliveira, I can see Simon killing the hype with his bread and butter suffocating wrestling and top control.
Prediction: Simon by decision.
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Joe Pyfer (1.33) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (3.40)
Pyfer is 3-1 in UFC, 12-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Barriault is 5-6-1 in UFC, 16-7-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Pyfer (29) is back to taking on mid-tier MW talent after losing his first UFC main event against Jack Hermansson (decision) in February. It was a fast rise to main event status with just three wins under his belt; the most recent of those was a submission of Abdul Razak Alhassan last October. He had previously handled what was a sizeable step in competition with aplomb, having little trouble getting Gerald Meerschaert (KO) out of there in the first round at UFC 287. Took advantage of a lay-up UFC debut match-up, finishing Alen Amedovski with strikes in the first round in the second half of 2022. Gained some attention having been the object of Dana White's praise ("Be Joe Pyfer!") for his performance in a second round KO of Osman Diaz (9-2) on an underwhelming first episode of the 2022 season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. Previously competed on the 2020 edition of DWTNCS where he was unlucky to break his arm defending an early takedown from Dustin Stoltzfus. Has fought for notable North American regional promotion CFFC (1-0), ROC (3-1) and CES MMA (1-0). Faced pretty poor competition on the regional scene with the only other semi-notable win coming over Austin Trotman (4-1-1). One other professional loss against Jhonoven Pati (8-6). 11/12 wins inside the distance (8 KO). Trains at Team Balance.
Barriault (34) lost a competitive fight with Chris Curtis (decision) at UFC 297 after stringing together a pair of wins over Julian Marquez (KO) and Eryk Anders (decision) in 2023. He went 1-2 the year before, quickly submitting Jordan Wright in between losses to Anthony Hernandez (submission) and Chidi Njoikuani (KO) - the latter in just 16 seconds. Turned his UFC career around in 2021 with back-to-back wins over Abu Azaitar (KO) and Dalcha Lungiambula (decision). Initially had his first UFC win halfway through 2020 - a second round KO of Oskar Piechota - but it was overturned to a no contest due to a positive drug test. A miserable 2019 ended with a loss to Jun Yong Park (decision) in December; started his UFC career 0-3 having suffered other setbacks against Krzysztof Jotko and Andrew Sanchez (decision) earlier in that calendar year. Earned the call to the UFC having picked up both the MW and LHW titles in top regional Canadian promotion TKO. Overall went 6-0 in the organisation across 2017 and 2018, picking up good wins against Todd Stoute (11-6), Brendan Kornberger (9-4) and Adam Hunter (7-2). One other career loss to Jonathan Vallee (7-4), which was later avenged. 10/16 wins by KO. Currently training at Kill Cliff FC.
Pyfer is going to be much faster and more explosive, it's a good match-up for him to rebound in.
Prediction: Pyfer by KO in round 1.
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Michelle Waterson (2.50) vs. Gillian Robertson (1.57)
Waterson is 6-8 in UFC, 18-12 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-L-L
Robertson is 10-6 in UFC, 13-8 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-L-W
Waterson (38) has been unable to reverse this late career slide with losses in 2023 coming against Luana Pinheiro (decision) and Marina Rodriguez (KO) - the latter a rematch of an earlier loss (decision) in 2024 that began her current four fight skid. She would be on a dreadfuk streak of seven consecutive losses if she hadn't been awarded a contentious split decision in a main event versus Angela Hill in 2020 - one other loss since then against Amanda Lemos (submission). Prior to the Hill loss she had other setbacks against Carla Esparza (decision) and former WSW Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk (decision). The best spell of her UFC career saw her win three fights in a 12 month span in 2018/19 with those victories coming over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Felice Herrig and Cortney Casey - all via decision. 2017 was a disappointing year, getting out-muscled and out-wrestled by Tecia Torres (decision) at UFC 218 and submitted by former WSW Champion Rose Namajunas after being knocked down by a head kick. Looked excellent in quickly dispatching Paige VanZant (submission following a beautiful back take in a scramble) in her first UFC main event in December 2016 having returned from almost 18 months on the shelf. Part of the WMMA old school having made her MMA debut all the way back in 2007. A former Invicta FC WAW Champion where she was 3-1 including a submission of Jessica Penne to win the belt. Undersized when she first came to the UFC but packed on extra muscle to become a true WSW. 9/18 wins by submission, 6/12 losses by decision. Trains at Jacksons MMA.
Robertson (29) got 2024 off to a good start with a second round finish of Polyana Viana (KO) at UFC 297. She continues to struggle in fights where she can't dictate where the fight takes place, losing to Tabatha Ricci (decision) due to this halfway through last year after back-to-back submission wins over Piera Rodriguez (submission) and Mariya Agapova (submission). Other losses since 2020 against J.J. Aldrich (decision), Taila Santos (decision) and Miranda Maverick (decision) which exposed her mediocre offensive wrestling. A finisher, ending 9/10 of her UFC wins inside the distance - excellent BJJ with other submission victories over Priscila Cachoiera, Cortney Casey, Veronica Macedo, Molly McCann and Emily Whitmire. Also finished in both of her other UFC losses against Maycee Barber (KO) and Mayra Bueno Silva (submission). Eliminated in the opening round of TUF 26 by second seed Barb Honchak (KO). Has a loss to Cynthia Calvillo (decision) and a win over Hannah Cifers (submission) on the regional scene. Long, lean frame (5'6). 2-1 since moving down to WSW. Coached by Din Thomas.
A few years back this might have been a decent stylistic fight for Waterson but at this stage of her career I'm fully expecting her to get submitted.
Prediction: Robertson by submission in round 1.
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Andrei Arlovski (3.00) vs. Martin Buday (1.40)
Arlovski is 23-17-1 in UFC, 34-23-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-L-L
Buday is 4-1 in UFC, 13-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Arlovski (45) lost against Waldo Cortes-Acosta (decision) on the first show of the year - his third loss in a row following others against Rogerio Marcos de Lima (submission) and Don'Tale Mayes (KO). Prior to that he had strung together four wins over borderline UFC-level fighters in Jake Collier, Jared Vanderaa, Chase Sherman and Carlos Felipe - all via decision. His only other setback since 2019 was against current UFC interim HW Champion Tom Aspinall (submission). Has completely lost his ability to finish with his last 10 UFC wins all being via decision stretching back to 2015 with others against Tanner Boser, Philipe Lins, Ben Rothwell, Stefan Struve and Junior Albini and Frank Mir. Impressive longevity at the highest level despite his KO losses now sitting at 12. Apart from a first round loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC 244, all his other losses (Tai Tuivasa, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Walt Harris - later overturned to a NC, Augusto Sakai) back to the beginning of 2017 have been by decision. Survived a torrid period in 2016-17 where he lost five in a row against good competition in Marcin Tybura (decision), Francis Ngannou (KO), Alistair Overeem (KO), Josh Barnett (submission) and Stipe Miocic (KO). The UFC homecoming in 2014 started very well with four consecutive wins over Brendan Schaub (decision), Antonio Silva (KO), Travis Browne (KO) and Mir. 10-4 in his original UFC run in 2000-2008, including multiple spells as UFC HW Champion. His career outside the UFC started brightly with KO wins over iron-chinned opponents Roy Nelson and Rothwell, but he then suffered four crushing losses in a row against Fedor Emelianenko (KO), Brett Rogers (KO), Antonio Silva (decision) and Sergei Kharitonov (KO) in Affliction/Strikeforce. Now training at American Top Team.
Buday (32) was completely outclassed by Shamil Gaziev (KO) at UFC 296, which was his first setback in the UFC after opening with four straight victories. The final of those saw him pick up his first UFC finish over Josh Parisian (submission); 2-1 overall last year having enjoyed success coming over Jake Collier (decision) in the first half of the year. Fortunate that a foul didn't cost him the win over Chris Barnett in his UFC debut; after dominating the fight he landed an illegal strike in the third round and luckily for him it was decided that the fight would go to the scorecards rather than be ruled a disqualification. One other UFC win over Lukasz Brzeski (decision). The giant Slovakian HW graduated to the UFC after finishing Lorenzo Hood (12-5-1) on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2021. Most of his regional career was spent in top Czech/Slovak organisation Oktagon MMA, where he was 5-0 and HW Champion after defeating Kamil Minda (8-4). One other career loss against UFC veteran Juan Espino (submission) in his second professional fight. 9/13 wins inside the distance (7 KO, 4 SUB).
Arlovski will look to win this one via his technical boxing, the question is whether the stronger and more physical Buday can get takedowns - I think he might struggle. If this is Arlovski's last fight then it would be nice to see him go out on a win.
Prediction: Arlovski by decision.
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Mayra Bueno Silva (1.90) vs. Macy Chiasson (1.90)
Silva is 5-3-2 in UFC, 10-3-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-NC-L
Chiasson is 7-3 in UFC, 9-3 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-W
Silva (32) will have been disappointed with her performance in her bid for the vacant WBW title, losing a unanimous decision to Raquel Pennington at UFC 297. She was given that opportunity despite her July 2023 main event submission win over Holly Holm getting overturned to a no contest due to an ADHD medication-related failed drug test. Looked good after moving up to compete at 135 lbs; earlier in 2023 she submitted Lina Lansberg with a second round kneebar after wins in 2022 over Stephanie Egger (submission) and Yanan Wu (decision). Went 2-2-1 at WFLW, finishing with a loss to a contender in that division in Manon Fiorot (decision) after salvaging a draw with a dominant third round against Montana De La Rosa. Suffered the first defeat of her professional MMA career in a fun scrap with Maryna Moroz (decision) just prior to covid hitting, returned later in 2020 to submit Mara Romero Borella in the first round. That was her second submission off her back in the UFC having done the same to Gillian Robertson in her UFC debut. Signed after winning her Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series (Brazil) fight against the previously undefeated Mayana Santos (8-2), submitting her opponent with a Brabo Choke in just 62 seconds. Despite only fighting four times on the regional scene she had notable wins over Marilia Santos (10-4) and Daiane Firmino (10-5). 7/10 wins by submission and an aggressive striker, the one weakness in her skill set is wrestling. Fights out of Chute Boxe.
Chiasson (32) returned from an 18-month absence to submit Pannie Kianzad in the first round in March, which was a rematch of the TUF 28 final that she also won via submission back in 2018. She looked to be well on her way to beating Irene Aldana at UFC 279 before a very rare up-kick to the body caused her to keel over in pain. That was her return to WBW after going 1-1 in two fights at WFW, beating Norma Dumont (decision) but losing to Raquel Pennington (submission) - missing weight in the latter. 5-2 at WBW with her previous win in that division coming over Marion Reneau (decision) in the first quarter of 2021. Fought once in 2020, beating short notice replacement Shanna Young (decision). Showed poor takedown defence and ability to get back to her feet in her only other WBW loss against Lina Lansberg (decision). Looked extremely dominant in the UFC before that setback, picking up dominant stoppage victories over Gina Mazany (KO) and Sarah Moras (KO) after winning the TUF 28 WFW tournament. Progressed to the final with emphatic finishes in the TUF house over Larissa Pacheco (KO) and Leah Letson (KO). 2-0 in Invicta FC, 3-1 as an amateur with the loss coming to Felicia Spencer. 5/9 wins inside the distance (2 KO, 3 SUB). Trains at Fortis MMA.
Chiasson is good as the hammer but doesn't react well to being the nail - Silva has that nasty streak that I can see working out well for her here.
Prediction: Silva by submission in round 2.
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Charles Jourdain (1.80) vs. Jean Silva (2.00)
Jourdain is 6-6-1 in UFC, 15-7-1 overall. Last 5: L-L-W-W-L
Silva is 1-0 in UFC, 12-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Jourdain (28) lost a tricky style match-up with Sean Woodson (decision) on home soil at UFC 297. He won both fights last year, picking up a comfortable decision win over Kron Gracie (decision) at UFC 289 before submitting Ricardo Ramos with a first round guillotine choke. Before that he suffered back-to-back decision losses in competitive fights with Nathaniel Wood and Shane Burgos over the second half of 2022. Other UFC wins over Andre Ewell (decision), Lando Vannata (submission) and Marcelo Rojo (KO) since 2021 with one other setback against Julian Erosa (submission). Involved in a pair of very close fights in 2020, first of all coming up just short in a split decision loss to Andre Fili and then having his fight with Joshua Culibao ruled a draw. Showed tremendous character to go into enemy territory and stop Doo Ho Choi (KO) at the end of 2019 after losing his UFC debut against Derrick Green (decision). Earned his UFC opportunity having gone 8-1 in strong regional Canadian promotion TKO over two and a half years, becoming the organization's LW Champion when he finished French veteran Damian Lapilus (20-14-6) in the fifth round. Also owns a notable win over Alex Morgan (14-6) while his only other professional loss came against UFC veteran T.J. Laramie (decision). Has finished 13/15 wins (8 KO, 5 SUB). Trains at Academie Pro Star MMA.
Silva (27) was successful in his UFC debut on the first show of 2024, beating the over-matched Westin Wilson (KO). A graduate of last year's Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series where he defeated Kevin Vallejos (13-1) by unanimous decision. The Brazilian has mainly competed on lesser known shows in his homeland with the most notable of his wins coming over Valdemir Cardoso (5-1), Tiago Souza (6-4), Adriano Souza (6-4) and Tamyray Lacerda (7-3). His losses came in his first five pro fights against Gabriel Schlupp (6-0) and Pedro Henrique (9-4-1). 11/12 wins inside the distance (9 KO).
Big step up in competition for Silva, I think Jourdain wins by being the more active striker across 15 minutes.
Prediction: Jourdain by decision.
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Payton Talbott (1.07) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (9.00)
Talbott is 2-0 in UFC, 8-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Ghemmouri is 0-1 in UFC, 12-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Talbott (25) is a BW to watch having got his UFC career off to a very good start with finishes of Nick Aguirre (submission) and Cameron Saaiman (KO) over the last eight months. A graduate of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series having been awarded a contract following a unanimous decision win over Reyes Cortez Jr. (7-3) on the first episode of the 2023 season. Prior to that he had been competing in Urijah Faber's A1 Combat organisation where he picked up notable wins over Cristhian Rivas (10-4-1) and Hector Fajardo (6-4). Has only been fighting professionally for two and a half years. 6/8 wins by KO. Rangy build for BW (5'10). Trains at Reno Academy of Combat.
Ghemmouri (29) made his UFC debut on last year's Paris show but was finished by a William Gomis body-kick in the third round. He had caught the UFC's attention with a recent 3-0 run for BRAVE FC, picking up wins over Mehmosh Raza (10-6), Bair Shtepin (11-6) and Vladislav Novitsky (10-6). His only other professional setback came in his fourth fight against Steve Poifonte (13-6) back in 2015. Other good career wins over Rachid Haz (10-3) and Amin Ayoub (18-6-1). 5/12 wins by decision. Fights out of Climax Fight Academy.
Talbott's going to be full of confidence, I can see him picking up another finish here.
Prediction: Talbott by KO in round 2.
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Carlos Hernandez (4.50) vs. Rei Tsuruya (1.22)
Hernandez is 2-2 in UFC, 9-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-L
Tsuruya makes his UFC debut, 9-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Hernandez (30) went 1-2 last year; he beat Denys Bondar by technical decision in June when a slam knocked his opponent out due to a clash of heads, which came in between losses to Allan Nascimento (submission) and Tatsuro Taira (KO). Began his UFC career with a split decision win over Victor Altamirano at the beginning of 2022. Received his UFC contract after beating Daniel Barez (decision) - who has since gone on to fight in the UFC - on the 2021 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. One other loss in a tough professional debut match-up with Gustavo Balert (12-4) in Titan FC. 4-0 in HFC against weak competition and made one successful appearance for LFA - beating Trevor Wells (8-5) before getting a place on DWTNCS. 4/9 wins by submission. 13-2 as an amateur. Trains at VFS Academy.
Tsuruya (21) enters the UFC fresh off of winning the Road to the UFC FLW competition, finishing Niushiyue Ji (13-4) with strikes in the final after wins over Mark Climaco (10-2) and Ronal Siahaan (8-2) in the semi- and quarter-finals respectively. On the Japanese regional scene he went 3-0 in strong regional promotions Pancrase and Deep with the pick of those wins coming over Satoru Enomoto (8-5), Masatoshi Ueda (20-10-3) and Kenta Kubo (8-5). 8/9 wins inside the distance (4 KO, 4 SUB).
Tsuruya looks like a good prospect and his strong grappling game aligns well with where Hernandez has struggled.
Prediction: Tsuruya by decision.
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