UFC 302 is a mercurial card. It only has one title fight, but it's a title defense for Islam Makachev, the top pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, against one of the most popular fighters of the past decade in Dustin Poirier. The odds are lopsided, yet it's a must-see fight due to the fighters involved, as well as the possibility that Poirier might retire after the fight. The co-main event is a five-round fight between former Middleweight champion Sean Strickland and former challenger Paulo Costa, but Costa's 1-3 since late 2019.
The only other fight that features ranked fighters is a Heavyweight matchup between Jailton Almeida and Alexandr Romanov, and that was supposed to be the featured bout, but it got moved to the prelims a couple days ago. In its place is a Middleweight matchup between Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk, which should be fun, but both fighters have struggled of late. The first two main card bouts are solid but, main event aside, this feels more like a glorified ESPN card than a PPV undercard. It's still a good card though, especially the televised prelim slate. Despite a slew of prelim bouts being altered or scrapped, it's a very good offering for the tv audiences. All in all, this is a solid card aside from the early prelims, with a must-see main event. Hopefully it winds up being a memorable one, because this is an overall balanced card with a lot of veterans and known names.
Early Prelims (6:30/5:30c, ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass)
Mitch Raposo (9-1) vs. Andre Lima (8-0)
The opening bout is the only one featuring relative unknowns, as Mitch Raposo takes on Andre Lima. Raposo, who is making his UFC debut, is a former CES and Cage Titans Flyweight champion. Despite that, he hasn't beaten a single quality opponent to date. Lima's resume is better, but not by much. His UFC debut was a hot mess, and he only won because his opponent literally bit him and got disqualified as a result. Lima fought dirty as well, and if not for the bite, he'd be in desperate need of a win right now. Nonetheless, Lima's the better fighter and I'll have to pick him, even though I don't want to. Prediction: Lima via decision.
Ailin Perez (9-2) vs. Joselyne Edwards (13-5)
Ailin Perez is a can crusher despite being 2-1 in the UFC. Edwards isn't much better, has gone the distance in seven straight fights and none of her UFC wins have aged well. I'll pick Edwards, but it's very hard to be excited for this one. Prediction: Edwards via decision.
Mickey Gall (7-5) vs. Bassil Hafez (8-4-1)
The final early prelim bout pits New Jersey native Mickey Gall against Bassil Haffez. Gall hasn't fought in over two years, but was brought back for this card, since it's essentially in his backyard. The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt has one win since 2019, so he clearly needs the win. Haffez is a two-time regional champion, including a CFFC Welterweight title win, and pretty well in his short notice UFC debut against Jack Della Madellana. He's gone the distance in most of his fights, but he's clearly the better fighter in this matchup. The odds are one-sided for a reason, and Hafez should take this fight with relative ease. Prediction: Hafez via decision.
Televised Prelims (8/7c, ESPN2)
Jake Matthews (19-7) vs. Phillip Rowe (10-4)
The televised prelim opener should be a good one, as Phillip Rowe takes on Jake Matthews. Rowe is 3-2 in the UFC, has finished all of his professional victories and always looks to bring the action. He's from Brooklyn, so the New Jersey crowd will probably be on his side. Matthews is entering his 20th UFC fight, and while his 12-7 octagon record is pretty good, he's alternated wins and losses over his last six fights. He's predominantly a grappler, but he can also strike when need be. It's a close fight on paper, and I'll pick Matthews to edge it out. Prediction: Matthews via decision or late submission.
Grant Dawson (20-2-1) vs. Joe Solecki (13-4)
A pair of talented grapplers take the stage next, as New Jersey's own Joe Solecki takes on Grant Dawson. Dawson is coming off a stunning 33-second knockout loss to Bobby Green, which snapped a 12-fight unbeaten streak. Both of his pro losses have been due to strikes in the first minute, and while Solecki is not a threat in that realm, it's still going to be interesting to see how Dawson will rebound from his last fight.
Solecki is also having a good UFC run, possessing a 5-2 record inside the octagon. He's also coming off a knockout loss, succumbing to a slam knockout in under 2 minutes against Drakkar Klose. When push comes to shove, I don't think he has any advantage in this fight. I think he'll avoid being submitted by Dawson, but I can't see him coming away with the win. Prediction: Dawson via decision.
(7) Jailton Almeida (20-3) vs. (13) Alexander Romanov (17-2)
For the first time in UFC history, a fight got moved from the featured slot on a PPV to the prelims of the same card. That's how poorly Almeida's recent fights were viewed by the UFC. It's sad, since this is one of only three fights on the card between ranked opponents. Nonetheless, this is Almeida's fight to lose. He's a fantastic grappler, has power when he chooses to use it, and his wins haven't aged poorly like Romanov's have. Let's hope this is a quick fight because if it isn't, it's going to drag badly. Prediction: Almeida via decision.
Roman Kopylov (12-3) vs. Cesar Almeida (5-0)
In the headlining prelim bout, combat sambo specialist Roman Kopylov will take on former kickboxer Cesar Almeida. It's a big step up for Almeida, who's never faced any proven opponents before this fight. He's a good kickboxer with nearly 60 kickboxing bouts to his credit, but Kopylov is much more experienced in MMA. The should win this fight rather comfortably. Prediction: Kopylov via decision.
Main Card (10/9c, PPV)
Randy Brown (18-5) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-1)
I hate picking a ton of fights to go the distance, but this card has a lot of them and this fight will probably go the same way. It's a quality fight, as Brown has won six of his last seven fights and Zaleski is 14-3-1 in his last 18 fights. However, Brown has gone the distance in four of his last six fights and Zaleski has gone the distance in five straight. Brown is the better fighter at this point, and it should be a solid fight overall. Prediction: Brown via decision.
Niko Price (15-7, 2 NC) vs. Alex Morono (24-9, 1 NC)
This fight was supposed to be on the prelims, but got moved on short notice. It's an odd choice, as Price has lost three of his last four fights and Morono has gone the distance in five of his last seven. Morono has the momentum entering this fight, has fared a lot better in recent years and should win this fight. How? That's right, by way of decision. Prediction: Morono via decision.
(1) Sean Strickland vs. (7) Paulo Costa (14-2)
In the co-main event, former Middleweight champion Sean Strickland will face former title challenger Paulo Costa in a five-round fight. It's an odd matchup, as Costa has lost three of his last four fights, while Strickland is coming off an unsuccessful title defense. I guess the idea is that this is a matchup between two strikers and Strickland will allow Costa to play his game, but I'm not sure. I'd love to see Costa win, but this feels like it has Strickland decision written all over it. Head pick: Strickland via decision. Heart pick: Costa via vintage TKO.
UFC Lightweight Championship: (C) Islam Makachev vs. (4) Dustin Poirier.
Love Dustin, but Islam's got this. prediction: Makachev via submission, round 2.
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