Detroit Golf Club - Detroit, MI With Scottie's playoff win at the Travelers last week, I've cashed in now on golf for three weeks in a row. This week the PGA Tour heads to Detroit Golf Club with a much weaker field for the Rocket Mortgage Classic…
With Scottie's playoff win at the Travelers last week, I've cashed in now on golf for three weeks in a row. This week the PGA Tour heads to Detroit Golf Club with a much weaker field for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Let's keep winning!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7370 yards, Donald Ross design, the course is a combo of the North and South course on the property, flattest course on tour so this should play much shorter than the yardage of the course, seven of the Par 4s range from 395-455 yards, four of the Par 4s are under 400 yards, four of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, two of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, two of the Par 5s are reachable by most of the field with another one reachable by some, birdiefest, tree lined fairways, fairway bunkers in the landing zones but not much trouble, undulating fairways and greens, less than driver on some holes but most guys still bomb it and average drives here were 13 yards longer than average, one of the longest average driving distance on tour (~296 yards vs. 283 yards tour average) since there is a ton of roll after it gets burned out with 50% of drives here going longer than 300 yards, mainly straight holes (not many doglegs on Donald Ross designs), slightly below average fairway widths, easier to hit fairways than tour average (66% vs. 62% tour average), 3.5-4 inch rough which hasn't really been penal at all, missing wildly off the tee could lead to approach shots over trees from nice lies on other fairways and should be easy for these guys to hit in most spots, barely less than average sized greens, easy to hit greens (72% GIR vs. tour average 66%), bunkers surrounding the greens, greens slope heavily from back to front with heavy undulation, Bluegrass greens (mix of mostly POA with around 20% bentgrass), some of the most birdies and eagles here of any courses on tour
Tournament Notes
2019 was the first year that this tournament was held, replacing the Quicken Loans National and was the first PGA event at Detroit Golf Club
Everyone in the T20 in 2019 here gained strokes putting. Putting matters here but its the one stat thats so variable that its not worth even looking at on a week to week basis. This is pretty much a putting contest since its a very easy course
In 2020, of the top 16 guys in SG: OTT they all made the cut besides Bubba and the rest of them besides Kevin Chappell (T62) finished in the T30
Even with very high winds in 2021, the winning score was still -18 and more than half the golfers that made the cut still finished -10 or better
Approach and SG: OTT are much closer here than a lot of other courses and guys can bomb and gouge it
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.8%), 150-175 yards. (18.4%), 125-150 yards (17.9%)
Corollary Courses
East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) - both similar Donald Ross design courses
Field
156 golfers - Horrendous field
Defending Champion: Rickie Fowler (-24 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Adam Hadwin, Collin Morikawa (-24)
One and Done: Tom Kim
One and Done Considerations: Tom Kim, Cameron Young
Players
Tom Kim: 11000: +1300 - Easily the best golfer in the field, coming off the playoff loss to Scottie last week where he forced the playoff with his clutch putt on 18 after the whole Oil protest idiots fucked up the green, MC,7 finishes here the last two years, 2,26,43,4,24,26,47,52,18,30 finishes in his last ten events, 12th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 8th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 96th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 59th in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 39th in Par 5 Scoring, 46th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Cameron Young: 10700: +1800 - Shot a 59 last week on Saturday at the Travelers, T2 finish here his only time here in 2022, 9,67,50,MC,63,34,62,9,2,54,36,4,16,8 finishes in his last 14 events, 42nd in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 42nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 19th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 82nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 102nd in Par 3 Scoring, 34th in Par 4 Scoring, 53rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 67th in Par 5 Scoring, 85th in SG: ARG, 130th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
Akshay Bhatia: 9800: +2200 - Has played really well lately and already won once this season, coming off playing in the final group last week at the Travelers with Scottie and Tom Kim, missed cut his only time here last year, 5,16,22,60,MC,MC,42,18,35,1,11,17 finishes in his last twelve events, 4th in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 21st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 52nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 15th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 52nd in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 84th in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Maverick McNealy: 8900: +2900 - His putting and short game has been fantastic and he pops in my model this week, 7,17,23,41,58,45,9,41,13,6,39,37 finishes in his last twelve events, MC,T21,T8 finishes here, 54th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 58th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 143rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 76th in Proximity 200+ yards, 16th in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained
Aaron Rai: 8800: +3500 - Back to my wheel of losers with him in a weak field event, T9 finish his only time here last year, 19,14,32,39,4,MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19 finishes in his last twelve events, 2nd in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 31st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 88th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 69th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in SG: ARG, 100th in Putting, 31st in Opportunities Gained, 96th in Birdie+ Gained
Keith Mitchell: 8500: +4500 - First in my model this week, seems to be the best lower tier golfer this year that hasn't won, missed cut here his only time here in 2019, 10,37,MC,20,14,MC,17,73,9,19,17 finishes in his last eleven events, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 35th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 7th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 11th in Proximity 200+ yards, 26th in Par 3 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 110th in SG: ARG, 128th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained
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