Islam Makhachev (1.18) vs. Dustin Poirier (5.00)
Makhachev is 14-1 in UFC, 25-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Poirier is 22-7-1 in UFC, 30-8-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-W
Makhachev (32) is coming off two successful defences of his LW title against Alexander Volkanovski in 2023 - he survived a scare in the first one with Volkanovski very much in the ascendency as the fight came to a conclusion but he then won in emphatic fashion with a first round head kick in the rematch. Won the belt from Charles Oliveira (submission) at UFC 280; that title shot was long overdue having won 10 fights in a row, the last of which was a dominant first round stoppage of Bobby Green (KO) towards the beginning of 2022. Went 3-0 in 2021 with dominant submission wins over ranked LWs Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises and Drew Dober. What had prevented him from earning that title shot earlier was initially inactivity and then the lack of a true marquee win on his record, although the latter could possibly be explained by top fighters looking to avoid a difficult stylistic match-up with the Dagestan native. The only setback in his career was against Adriano Martins (KO) at UFC 192. Other wins in his current streak over Davi Ramos (decision), Arman Tsarukyan (decision), Kajan Johnson (submission), Gleison Tibau (KO), Nik Lentz (decision) and Chris Wade (decision). Also won his UFC debut against Leo Kuntz (submission) back in 2015 before the Martins defeat. 4-0 in M-1 on the Russian regional circuit including a good win over Mansour Barnaoui (21-6). Elite wrestler (as you would expect to see in the protege of Khabib Nurmagomedov) and his striking has improved a lot to the point where he is a legitimate well-round threat. 16/25 wins inside the distance (11 SUB). Now in his physical prime and fighting more consistently having managed just eight trips to the Octagon in his first six years in the UFC. Splits his time training between Eagles MMA and American Kickboxing Academy.
Poirier (35) catapulted himself to the front of the queue for a LW title shot with a second round KO of Benoit St.Denis at UFC 299. It looks like that opportunity was some way off when he was finished by a Justin Gaethje head kick at UFC 291 in a rematch of their previous contest that Poirier had won via KO back in 2018. One other win over Michael Chander (submission) since his previous unsuccessful crack at the LW title against Charles Oliveira (submission) - overall he is 0-2 in LW title shots having also lost against Makhachev's teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov (submission) at UFC 242. The high point of his UFC career to date was two KO wins over Conor McGregor in 2021; the second fight was stopped due to McGregor breaking his leg, but it had been all one way traffic in Poirier's favour up to that point. One other UFC win since 2020 over Dan Hooker (decision). Won the interim UFC LW title when he beat Max Holloway (decision) at UFC 236 - a win that looks better after what Holloway did to Gaethje at UFC 300. Only one other loss at LW against Michael Johnson (KO), overall he has looked excellent in the weight class (13-4-1) with other wins over Eddie Alvarez (KO), Anthony Pettis (submission), Jim Miller (decision), Carlos Diego Ferreira (KO), Yancy Medeiros (KO), Joseph Duffy (decision) and Bobby Green (KO). Also had a very good 8-3 run at FW including wins over Holloway (submission), Erik Koch (decision), Diego Brandao (KO) and Akira Corassani (KO) but losses to the very elite guys in McGregor (KO), Cub Swanson (decision) and the Korean Zombie (submission). Very well-rounded, carries KO power at LW (15/30 wins by KO) and has a good grappling game (8 SUB). Trains at American Top Team.
It almost feels like we've already seen this fight before given the similarities between Nurmagomedov and Makhachev and it's difficult to see this fight ending up differently.
Prediction: Makhachev by submission in round 3.
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Sean Strickland (1.36) vs. Paulo Costa (3.25)
Strickland is 15-6 in UFC, 28-6 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-W-L
Costa is 6-3 in UFC, 14-3 overall. Last 5: W-L-L-W-L
Strickland (33) couldn't defend his MW title with Dricus Du Plessis earning the split decision in an entertaining back-and-forth contest at UFC 297. He had shocked the world when he upset Israel Adesanya (decision) to win the belt at UFC 293. Stepped in for Du Plessis for that MW title shot having walked through Abus Magomedov (KO) in their main event last July. Fought on the last show of 2022 - losing a split decision to Jarod Cannonier - but then immediately rectified that by filling in on short notice and beating Nassourdine Imavov (decision) on the first show of 2023. That snapped a two-fight losing streak; he had previously paid the price for being content to engage in a striking match with Alex Pereira at UFC 276, getting finished with strikes in the first round. Earned himself that MW title shot eliminator by winning back-to-back main events against Uriah Hall (decision) and Jack Hermansson (decsision). Has raised his game since returning from a nasty motorcycle crash that kept him out of action for two years, winning his first five fights back with other wins over Jack Marshman (decision), Brendan Allen (KO) and Krzysztof Jotko (decision). Moved back up to MW having gone 5-2 as a WW, a stint that culminated in an impressive finish of Nordine Taleb (KO). Other WW wins against Court McGee (decision), Tom Breese (decision), Alex Garcia (KO) and Igor Araujo (decision) with the setbacks coming against Elizeu Zaleski (KO) and current WW Champion Kamaru Usman (decision). Began his UFC career at MW, winning his first two fights against Bubba McDaniel (submission) and Luke Barnatt (decision) before losing to Santiago Ponzinibbio (decision). Very good boxer, intelligent use of the jab (albeit his lack of urgency can be frustrating). Excellent chin. 13/28 wins by decision (10/15 in the UFC). Currently affiliated with Team Quest.
Costa (33) has lost three of his last four now after coming up short against Robert Whittaker (decision) at UFC 298 - the only success over that period was a win over Luke Rockhold (decision) in an entertaining bout at UFC 278. He was extremely unprofessional when he showed up to a MW contest with Marvin Vettori well over weight, forcing the main event to be switched to LHW on short notice and losing a decision. Hasn't seemed committed to his MMA career since a disappointing MW title challenge against Israel Adesanya at UFC 253; he waited on the outside while Adesanya destroyed his legs before meekly folding to strikes in the second round. Earned that crack at the title by picking up a unanimous decision win over Yoel Romero at UFC 241, which was his fifth straight UFC victory. Burst on to the scene in 2017 with dominant stoppage wins over Garreth McLellan (KO), Oluwale Bamgbose (KO) and Johnny Hendricks (KO) in very one sided fights. Only fought once in 2018, overcoming the first adversity of his UFC career but still emerging with a comprehensive second round finish of Uriah Hall (KO). 12/14 wins inside the distance (11 KO). One notable win on the Brazilian regional scene over UFC veteran Wagner Silva Gomes (KO). A dangerous striker and a BJJ black belt, although he has rarely used the latter throughout his career to date. Big, strong MW who is very physically imposing for the weight class. Competed on TUF Brazil 3 back in 2014, losing to eventual runner-up Marcio Alexandre Jr. in the quarter finals (decision). Fights out of his own Team Borracha.
The fact this is a five-round co-main event suits Strickland, who has lots of experience in the Championship rounds. He might have to come from behind as Costa is more than capable of scoring early knockdowns but Strickland's defence should ensure he doesn't get finished.
Prediction: Strickland by decision.
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Jailton Almeida (1.36) vs. Alexandr Romanov (3.25)
Almeida is 6-1 in UFC, 20-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Romanov is 6-2 in UFC, 17-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-L-W
Almeida (32) will look to rebound from his first UFC setback against Curtis Blaydes (KO) at UFC 299, which would have set him up for a crack at the interim HW title. He won his first six UFC contests, albeit the last of those - a main event with Derrick Lewis in November - saw his stock slightly fall having failed to finish the fight despite spending most of the 25 minutes in dominant position. Earlier in 2023 he entered the top 10 HW rankings after winning his first UFC main event against Jairzinho Rozenstruik (submission). After initially bouncing back and forth between LHW and HW, he has now committed to the latter. 3-0 in 2023 having also been dominant in beating Shamil Abdurakhimov with strikes from mount in the second round. After kicking his UFC career off with a first-round finish of Danillo Marques (KO) at LHW, he moved up to HW and had next to no trouble defeating Parker Porter (submission) in the first round. Was due to return to LHW but ended up instead competing in a short notice Catchweight contest at 220 lbs, completing a trio of first round finishes with another submission over Anton Turkalj. Looked excellent in graduating from the fifth series of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, making quick work of a good opponent in Nasrudin Nasrudinov (10-2). Showed himself to be a standout talent on the Brazilian regional circuit with wins over UFC veterans Ildemar Alcantara (submission) and Ednaldo Oliveira (submission). Two losses early in his career against Bruno Assis (13-7) and Tyago Moreira (15-13-1). A real physical specimen, 6'3 and very powerfully built. Grappling background. Has finished 18/19 wins (7 KO, 12 SUB) and has only seen the third round twice in his career. Fights out of LG Systems.
Romanov (33) snapped a two-fight losing streak with victory over Blagoi Ivanov (decision) last July. He put up very little resistance in a first round KO loss to Alexander Volkov earlier in 2023, which followed his first career MMA loss to Marcin Tybura (decision) at UFC 278. Began his career with 16 straight victories, five of those coming in the UFC - the last of those was when he walked through the badly overmatched Chase Sherman (submission) in the first half of 2022. Ended 2021 with a convincing victory over Jared Vanderaa (KO) having been lucky to emerge victorious in a tough fight with Juan Espino (decision) which went to the judges scorecards when Romanov couldn't continue following a third round low blow. Very dominant in finishes of Marcos Rogerio de Lima (submission) and Roque Martinez (submission) in his first year in the organisation. Almost all of his regional career took place in local Moldovan promotion Eagles FC where he picked up some decent wins over Sultan Murtazaliev (9-5-2), Sergio Freitas (6-1) and Alexander Stolyarov (26-7). One other notable win over Strikeforce and Bellator veteran Virgil Zwicker (17-9-1). Very large bear of a man but he has lost over 20 lbs since his first UFC weigh in. Limited striking but a very strong grappling skill set (Sumo background). Has finished 15/17 wins inside the distance (6 KO, 9 SUB). Trains at Lion Club.
These two are similar in that they're used to dominating fights with their grappling without needing to resort to plan B. Romanov is a naturally bigger guy but Almeida will have the edge technically on the ground. Quite a bit of uncertainty here, low confidence pick.
Prediction: Almeida by decision.
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Randy Brown (1.58) vs. Elizeu Zaleski (2.40)
Brown is 12-5 in UFC, 18-5 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Zaleski is 10-3-1 in UFC, 24-7-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-D
Brown (33) is coming off a big first round KO of Muslim Salikhov in February. Last year he had a four-fight win streak halted by Jack Della Maddalena (submission) before he rebounded to beat Wellington Turman (decision). The win streak featured wins in 2022 over Francisco Trinaldo (decision) and Kalinn Williams (decision) and wins in 2021 over Alex Oliveira (submission) and Jared Gooden (decision). Other wins since 2019 against Bryan Barberena (KO) and Warlley Alves (submission) with the only loss in his last eight coming against ranked WW Vicente Luque (KO). Three other setbacks in the UFC, including a bizarre loss to Niko Price halfway through 2018 where he was finished by hammerfists from the bottom. Struggled for consistency at the beginning of his UFC career, looking brilliant in a demolition of Brian Camozzi (KO), showing his natural talent in a come from behind submission of Erick Montano and winning a decision against Mickey Gall at UFC 217 but then looking considerably outclassed in other losses against Michael Graves (submission) and Belal Muhammad (decision). Discovered through Dana White's Lookin' for a Fight series after going 6-0 in Ring of Combat. Extremely large, long frame for WW (6'3). Vulnerable to leg kicks. 12/18 wins inside the distance (7 KO, 5 SUB). Trains at Budokan Martial Arts Academy.
Zaleski (37) returned from a USADA suspension in 2023 to beat Abubakar Nurmagomedov (decision) and salvage a draw with a 10-8 third round against a very good opponent in Rinat Fakhretdinov. Prior to that we last saw him administer a one-sided beatdown to Benoit St.Denis (decision) at UFC 267 - a win that looks much more impressive in retrospect. 1-1 in 2020, picking up a unanimous decision win over Alexey Kunchenko before being slightly unlucky to lose a split decision against Muslim Salikhov at UFC 251. Had a seven-fight win streak snapped by Li Jingliang in enemy territory in the second half of 2019, getting finished by strikes in the third round. His only other UFC setback came in his UFC debut in May 2015 when he lost a split decision to Nicolas Dalby. Following that he went on a good run picking up wins over Sean Strickland (KO), Omari Akhmedov (KO), Keita Nakamura (decision), Lyman Good (decision), Max Griffin (decision), Luigi Vendramini (KO) and Curtis Millender (submission). A striker with 14/23 wins by KO. Former Jungle Fights WW Champion. Losses earlier in his career to UFC veterans Guilherme Vasconcelos (submission) and Viscardi Andrade (submission). Trains at CM Systems.
Athletic advantages for Brown but Zaleski has that dog in him that has allowed him to overcome such disadvantages in the past. Tough one to call.
Prediction: Brown by decision.
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Kevin Holland (1.36) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (3.25)
Holland is 12-8-1 in UFC, 25-11-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-L-L
Oleksiejczuk is 7-5-1 in UFC, 19-7-1 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-L
Holland (31) has decided to move back up to MW after losing back-to-back fights against Jack Della Maddalena (decision) and Michael Page (decision). He went 4-3 at WW with the wins all finishes of Santiago Ponzinibbio (KO), Michael Chiesa (submission), Tim Means (submission) and Alex Oliveira (KO) with the other loss a late main event stoppage against Stephen Thompson (KO) at the end of 2022. Took an extremely short notice fight with Khamzat Chimaev (submission) at MW in the clusterfuck re-scheduling of bouts at UFC 279, losing via first round submission but showing an admirable attitude to take on any challenge presented to him. Originally left the MW division after suffering main event losses against Derek Brunson (decision) and Marvin Vettori (decision) - where his lack of ability to keep fights on the feet was exposed. 2020 was by far the highlight of his UFC career so far, going 5-0 with wins over Jacare (KO), Charlie Ontiveros (KO), Darren Stewart (decision), Joaquin Buckley (KO) and Anthony Hernandez (KO). Other UFC wins over Gerald Meerschaert (decision), Alessio Di Chirico (decision) and John Phillips (submission) and losses against Brendan Allen (submission) and in his short notice UFC debut against Thiago Santos (decision) at UFC 227. Appeared on the first season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series without being awarded a contract after beating Will Santiago Jr. (9-7). Paid his dues on the regional scene with experience in LFA (1-2) and Bellator (1-0). Owns a notable regional win over ranked WW Geoff Neal (KO). All losses on the regional scene came to good opposition: UFC veteran Curtis Millender (decision), former Bellator MW Champion Rafael Lovato Jr. (submission) and Ramil Mustapaev (9-1). 21/25 wins inside the distance (14 KO). Unorthodox style, places a high premium on entertaining. Tall (6'3) for WW. Trains at Travis Lutter BJJ.
Oleksiejczuk (29) is 3-2 since dropping down to MW; his wins have all been dominant first round destructions of Chidi Njokuani (KO), Sam Alvey (KO) and Cody Brundage (KO). However, he has also been completely outclassed in both losses against Caio Borralho (submission) and in his most recent loss against Michel Pereira (KO) at UFC 299. Finished his 4-3-1 spell as a LHW with a narrow loss to Dustin Jacoby (decision) at UFC 272. Enjoyed a positive 2021, going 2-0 with wins over Shamil Gamzatov (KO) and Modestas Bukauskas (decision). Those wins followed a two-fight losing streak - both submissions - against Ovince St.Preux and Jim Crute, which highlighted the holes in his defensive grappling skill-set. Made a good start to his UFC career, beating Khalil Rountree (decision) at UFC 219 as a big underdog before the result was changed to a no contest due to a failed drug test. Returned from his suspension to pick up first round KO finishes of Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov (KO). The Pole entered the UFC riding a nine fight win streak with notable wins over Bellator veteran Lukasz Klinger (11-6-1) and Riccardo Nosiglia (8-4). Made his MMA debut at the start of 2014, picking up a couple of losses to Jan Kwiaton (6-2) and Marcin Wojcik (19-9) in his first year of competition. 14/19 wins by KO, looks very powerful since moving down to MW.
Oleksiejczuk is that sort of mid-tier MW that Holland was comfortably beating during his previous time in the weight class. He's going to have to be wary of the Pole's power but I think he'll be much faster and a grappling threat.
Prediction: Holland by submission in round 2.
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Grant Dawson (1.20) vs. Joe Solecki (4.80)
Dawson is 8-1-1 in UFC, 20-2-1 overall. Last 5: D-W-W-W-L
Solecki is 5-2 in UFC, 13-4 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Dawson (30) was upset by Bobby Green in his first UFC main event last October, succumbing to strikes in just 33 seconds. That was his first UFC loss after going undefeated through his first nine contests - the only other time he didn't emerge victorious was when he gave up a 10-8 third round to Rick Glenn which caused their fight to be scored a draw. He looked sensational in a dominant performance against what looked like a potentially tricky opponent in Damir Ismagulov (decision) earlier last year. Other wins since that draw over Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen - both third round rear-naked choke submissions. Three third round finishes in the UFC - he finished Leonardo Santos (KO) with just one second remaining in their 2021 contest. Other UFC wins over Nad Narimani (decision), Darrick Minner (submission), Mike Trizano (submission) and Julian Erosa (decision). Earned a UFC contract by submitting Adrian Diaz (11-7-1) on the first season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series in the summer of 2017. 1-0 in Titan FC and 3-0 in Victory Fighting Championship, picked up decent wins over Robert Washington (20-11-1) and Bryce Logan (13-8) during his regional career. One regional loss to Hugh Pulley (10-7-1). Relentless offensive wrestling. 17/20 wins inside the distance with 13 submissions (11 rear-naked chokes). Trains at MMA Glory & Fitness.
Solecki (30) was on the wrong end of a slam KO from Drakkar Klose in December. The 18 months prior to that had seen him pick up victories over Alex da Silva (decision) and Carl Deaton (submission). One other UFC setback against Jared Gordon, who beat him by split decision in the final quarter of 2021. 1-1 in 2021 having also picked up the biggest win of his career over veteran Jim Miller (decision). Other UFC wins over Austin Hubbard (submission) and Matt Wiman (decision). Graduated to the UFC after a successful appearance on the third season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, submitting James Wallace (8-4) with a first round guillotine. Spent the majority of his regional career competing for CFFC (5-1) and also appeared once for New Jersey organisation Ring of Combat (1-0). Owns a good regional win over Gilbert Patrocinio (11-4) while his other losses have come against UFC LW Nikolas Motta (KO) and Cesar Balmaceda (6-2). 8/13 wins by submission. Fights out of Gym-O.
Dawson is just a better version of Solecki, we've already seen Dawson thrive in these exact sort of match-ups.
Prediction: Dawson by decision.
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Niko Price (3.00) vs. Alex Morono (1.40)
Price is 7-7-2 in UFC, 15-7-2 overall. Last 5: NC-L-W-L-L
Morono is 13-6-1 in UFC, 24-9-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-W
Price (34) has had a rough few years which culminated in a 38-second loss to Robbie Lawler (KO) in his retirement fight. The only success in his last six came against Alex Oliveira (decision) towards the end of 2021; besides that he has suffered losses to Philip Rowe (KO), Michel Pereira (decision) and Vicente Luque (KO) as well as a draw against Donald Cerrone (which was overturned to a no contest due to Price failing a drug test for marijuana). 2-1 in 2019 with KO wins over James Vick and Tim Means either side of a loss against Geoff Neal (KO). A fun fighter who is almost guaranteed to deliver an exciting fight, only seeing the scorecards three times in 16 UFC contests. Has a knack for unusual finishes having knocked out Vick and Randy Brown off his back. Other UFC wins against George Sullivan (submission), Alan Jouban (KO) and Brandon Thatch (submission). Not the most cerebral of fighters, which was evidenced when he went toe-to-toe with the faster and more explosive Abdul Razak Alhassan and was finished inside a minute. Aggressive striker with 13/15 wins inside the distance (10 KO), finished in 6/7 losses (5 KO). Competed his entire regional career for Fight Time Promotions before signing with the UFC. Formerly trained at American Top Team but now fighting out of his own Futures MMA camp.
Morono (33) has a quick turnaround following a win over Court McGee (decision) in April. He split a pair of fights last year, finishing Tim Means with a second round guillotine in June but then falling short against an in-form WW in Joaquim Buckley (decision) in October. Ended 2022 with a heartbreaking third round loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio (KO) that he had been comfortably on his way to winning at UFC 282. Prior to that he was in the best form of his UFC career, stringing together four wins in a row over Donald Cerrone (KO), David Zawada (decision), Mickey Gall (decision) and Matthew Semelsberger (decision). 2020 was a down year, falling short against a high profile opponent in Anthony Pettis (decision) and getting knocked out by short notice replacement Khaos Williams either side of a comfortable win over Rhys Mckee (decision). Established himself as a solid middle of the pack WW with other wins at this level over Max Griffin (decision), Zak Ottow (KO), Kenan Song (decision), Kyle Noke (decision), James Moontasri (decision) and Josh Burkman (submission). Does also have a tendency to slip up in winnable fights, other UFC losses against Jordan Mein (decision), Keita Nakamura (decision) and Price (KO - but later overturned to a no contest). 7-2 in strong regional promotion Legacy Fighting Championship, including wins over TUF/UFC veterans Valdir Araujo (KO) and Derrick Krantz (submission). Jack of all trades, master of none with no real standout skill but solid in every department. 13/24 wins inside the distance (6 KO, 7 SUB), 6/9 losses by decision. Trains at Gracie Barra Woodlands.
This is a good chance for Morono to gain revenge for that 2017 KO loss, he'll be much faster and he's carrying much less wear and tear.
Prediction: Morono by KO in round 2.
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Phil Rowe (2.30) vs. Jake Matthews (1.62)
Rowe is 3-2 in UFC, 10-4 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-W-L
Matthews is 12-7 in UFC, 19-7 overall. Last 5: L-W-L-W-L
Rowe (33) had a three-fight win streak snapped by Neil Magny (decision) last year - those three wins all came via KO over Niko Price, Jason Witt and Orion Cosce (KO) - the latter two come-from-behind victories. Finally made his UFC debut at UFC 258 (having had three false starts in 2020), losing a decision against Gabriel Green in a fight that was there for the taking going into the third round. Graduated to the UFC from the 2019 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, beating Leon Shahbazyan (8-4) by third round KO. His debut loss snapped a seven-fight win streak after losing his first two professional contests. Very weak level of competition on the regional scene - including the two guys who beat him (who have a combined 2-11 MMA record excluding their wins over Rowe). 10/10 wins inside the distance (6 KO, 4 SUB). Huge WW (6'3) which is an advantage on the feet but a disadvantage once put on his back. Fights out of Jacare's Fusion Xcel Performance camp.
Matthews (29) has been exchanging losses and wins in his last five with setbacks against Michael Morales (decision), Matthew Semelsberger (decision) and Sean Brady (submission) sandwiching wins over Darrius Flowers (submission) and Andre Fialho (KO). His best career win came over Jingliang Li (decision) back in 2018; overall he is 8-4 since moving up to WW although none of his other wins are still on the UFC roster - the only other notable one in terms of name value was Diego Sanchez (decision). Left the LW division following setbacks against Kevin Lee (KO) and Andrew Holbrook (decision). UFC LW wins over Johnny Case (submission), Akbarh Arreola (KO), Vagner Rocha (submission) and Dashon Johnson (submission) plus one other loss against James Vick (submission). Trained by his father. 13/19 wins inside the distance (5 KO, 8 SUB).
Rowe is a huge WW but that size becomes a liability when he's put on his back - something I think Matthews will be able to do.
Prediction: Matthews by decision.
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Roman Kopylov (2.00) vs. Cesar Almeida (1.80)
Kopylov is 4-3 in UFC, 12-3 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-L
Almeida is 1-0 in UFC, 5-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Kopylov (33) had a four-fight win streak snapped by Anthony Hernandez (submission) at UFC 298. He had an outstanding 2023, going 3-0 with the final of those wins over Josh Fremd (KO). Earlier in the year he produced a highlight reel head-kick KO Claudio Ribeiro at UFC 291 after defeating Punahele Soriano (KO) on the first show of the year. The good run started when he picked up his first UFC win over Alessio Di Chirico (KO) in the second half of 2022. Managed to turn his UFC career around after losing his first two trips to the Octagon against Karl Roberson (submission) and Albert Duraev (decision). Entered the UFC with high expectations having been the reigning MW Champion of strong Russian regional promotion Fight Nights Global, winning the title with a fourth round KO of Abdulsupyan Alikhanov (13-3) and successfully defending against Yasubey Enomoto (22-15). Overall 4-0 in FNG, also made appearances in other strong Russian regional promotions ACB (1-0) and League S-70 (1-0). Other notable career wins over Jacob Ortiz (16-8) and Luiz Gustavo Dutra (6-3-1). 11/12 wins by KO with nine of them coming in the second half of the fight. Combat Sambo background.
Almeida (36) got his UFC career off to a good start in April, turning the tide on Dylan Budka (KO) in the second round. He is one of a number of professional kickboxers to abandon their original discipline and attempt to forge an MMA career instead following the success of Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. Had just three professional fights under his belt when he was invited to the 2023 season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series and was awarded a contract after beating Lucas Fernando (10-3) by decision. One other good MMA win over Vitor Costa (6-1). 47-8-1 as kickboxer including a win over Pereira (as well as two losses). 4/5 wins by KO. Trains at Lotus MMA.
This is a big step up in competition for Almeida, although it is a stylistically favourable fight given that we haven't seen Kopylov look to grapple yet. Not an easy one to call but I can see the superior striking pedigree of Almeida eventually telling.
Prediction: Almeida by KO in round 2.
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Mickey Gall (4.00) vs. Bassil Hafez (1.25)
Gall is 6-5 in UFC, 7-5 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-L-L
Hafez is 0-1 in UFC, 8-4-1 overall. Last 5: W-L-W-W-L
Gall (32) appeared to have been cut or retired but he's back over two years since his last appearance, which was a fist round KO loss to Mike Malott at UFC 273. Despite some early success he had hit a ceiling when it came to taking on mid-tier UFC WWs with other losses since 2020 against Mike Perry (decision) and Alex Morono (decision) with a dominant performance against Jordan Williams (submission) the only success over that period. Other UFC losses against Randy Brown (decision) and Diego Sanchez (KO) - the latter was very disappointing consider Sanchez's struggles at that point. Came into the UFC as a very inexperienced fighter with just one professional bout to his name but made very easy work of very poor competition in Mike Jackson (submission) and CM Punk (submission) before picking up more respectable wins over Sage Northcutt (submission), George Sullivan (submission) and Salim Touahri (decision). Very talented grappler (6/7 wins by submission) but with average wrestling he has been unable to consistently get fights to the ground. Trains at Miller Brothers MMA.
Hafez (33) surprised everyone by giving ranked WW Jack Della Maddalena a really tough test in a short notice debut last July, being unlucky to lose a split decision. On the Norther American regional scene he most recently fought for Fury FC, leaving as their WW Champion having avenged an earlier career defeat against Evan Cutts (16-7) to win the belt. 2-0 in that organisation having also beaten UFC veteran Anthony Ivy (decision). Other good career wins over Christien Savoie (10-1-1) and Chauncy Foxworth (17-9), other losses against Richard Williams (1-0) and De'Alonzio Jackson (4-0) plus a draw against UFC veteran Jeremiah Wells. Trains at Elevation Fight Team.
I suppose there's a chance that Gall has been working hard on his wrestling during his time off but I think it's more likely he still struggles to dictate where the fight takes place and gets out-struck on the feet.
Prediction: Hafez by decision.
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Joselyne Edwards (2.50) vs. Ailin Perez (1.57)
Edwards is 4-3 in UFC, 13-5 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-W-L
Perez is 2-1 in UFC, 9-2 overall. Last 5: W-W-L-W-W
Edwards (28) had a three-fight win streak snapped by Nora Cornolle (decision) in September. That win streak came with a fair amount of fortune with dubious decision wins over Ji Yeon Kim and Lucie Pudilova - the latter in particular is widely viewed as one of the worst decisions of 2023. Other UFC wins over Ramona Pascual (decision) at UFC 275 and in her UFC debut against Yanan Wu (decision). Some glaring defensive wrestling vulnerabilities were exposed by Jessica-Rose Clark (decision) and Karol Rosa (decision) in 2021. Only fought once in the two years prior to her UFC debut following a split decision loss to UFC veteran Sarah Alpar for the LFA WBW title. Owns a notable career win over Brenda Gonzalez (9-4). One other loss on the Panama regional circuit in her second professional fight. 8/13 wins inside the distance (5 KO, 3 SUB). Trains at Kings MMA.
Perez (29) got her UFC career moving in the right direction in the second half of 2023, picking up her first wins at this level over Ashlee Evans-Smith (decision) and Lucie Pudilova (decision). That success came after she moved down to WBW having lost her UFC debut against Stephanie Egger (submission) at WFW in 2022. The Argentinian graduated from her domestic scene where she has only one notable win over Stephanie Bragayrac (9-5). Her other professional loss against UFC veteran Tamires Vidal comes with an asterisk as it was a disqualification for illegal knees. 4/9 wins by KO. Sanda background. Now training at MMA Masters.
Low level WBW contest that is likely to be sloppy and determined by whoever makes the fewest mistakes.
Prediction: Perez by decision.
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Mitch Raposo (3.00) vs. Andre Lima (1.40)
Raposo makes his UFC debut, 9-1 overall. Last 5: L-W-W-W-W
Lima is 1-0 in UFC, 8-0 overall. Last 5: W-W-W-W-W
Raposo (25) was set to be involved in Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series this summer but has instead jumped at this short notice opportunity to make his UFC debut. He previously competed on the 2021 DWTNCS, losing to Jake Hadley (submission) - who missed weight. Since then he has gone 4-0 with the pick of those wins coming over Flavio Carvalho (7-4). Short (5'5), powerfully built FLW. 7/9 wins inside the distance (4 KO, 3 SUB). Fights out of Regiment Training Center.
Lima (25) won his March UFC debut in novel circumstances when Igor da Silva was disqualified for biting him. He earned a UFC contract after defeating Rickson Zenidim (15-2) by unanimous decision on the 2023 edition of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series. Made an appearance for LFA last year, beating Igor Taylon (7-4-1). Other decent career wins over Alexandre Rodrigues (5-4), Natan Ziele (5-2) and Victor Santos (4-2). Muay Thai and Kickboxing background. 5/8 wins by KO. Fights out of Team Lucas Mineiro.
Raposo is yet to prove he can consistently beat even good regional competition so I'm leaning towards Lima.
Prediction: Lima by decision.
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