Valero Texas Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2024

Anthony Falcone

April 3

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) - San Antonio, TX

This week for the final event before The Masters, the PGA Tour head to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. I hit the winner on Corey Conners here last year, let's follow it up with another win!

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Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7435 yards, Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia), overseeded Bermuda grass throughout with poa mixed into the greens, plays very long, the Par 5s are long, all of them around 600 yards with only one reachable in two by most golfers (Par 5s here play the hardest of any course on tour), 3 of the Par 3s are between 150-175 yards, 74 bunkers and water hazards on 3 holes, average driving distance here is longer than tour average by a few yards since guys don't care to hit the fairways, very hard to hit narrow tree lined fairways (~56% driving accuracy vs. ~62% tour average) that get more narrow with large bunkers in play in the landing zones, shorter rough isn't too penal to get out of, native areas will be very hard to get out of if you miss the fairways wildly, very hard to hit greens (~59% GIR vs. tour average ~66%), second-lowest GIR % on tour behind just Riviera, average speed greens that are multitiered with lots of undulation, closely mowed edges of greens (like Augusta), it can get very windy here with the prevailing winds more to the players backs on longer holes and in their face on the shorter ones, besides TPC Sawgrass this course has the most triple bogies on tour

Tournament Notes

There isn't as much of a difference between SG: OTT and Approach as there usually is, so you need to be good off the tee here and SG: OTT becomes more influential the higher the finish
Last chance to get into The Masters by winning this tournament, this is only the fourth year that it's been the tournament the week before The Masters
Historically one of the 10 hardest courses on tour but has played a bit easier the past few years
Besides Landry in 2018 who didn't play the year before he won and Conners last year (who had a T35 the year before but was a previous winner here with elite course history), 5 of the last 8 winners have a T30 the year before here (Spieth in 2021 was technically 2 years since the 2020 tournament was cancelled because of covid, but still fits this trend since he came T30 in 2019 here)
5 of the last 9 winners here were first time winners on tour
8 of the last 13 winners here (since they started playing this event at this course in 2010) were the 54 hole leaders (Conners was solo 2nd last year)
Prior to JJ Spaun in 2022 (who was 4th T2G and gained strokes in every facet of the game), the last 4 winners here were 4th, 1st, 1st and 2nd in Approach for the week and last year Corey Conners led in Approach for the week

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (20.2%), 200+ yards (18.7%), 175-200 yards (18.4%)

Field

156 golfers - Some solid talent at the top of the board but pretty weak field strength

Defending Champion: Corey Conners (-15)

Runner Up Last Year: Sam Stevens (-14)

One and Done: Hideki Matsuyama

One and Done Considerations: ~~Aberg~~, ~~Rory~~, Hideki, Conners

Players

Hideki Matsuyama: 10600: +2200 - Playing great golf right now with three T10s in elevated events in his last three events, already won this year at Genesis with 6,12,1,22,71,13,30,58,51,16 finishes in his last ten events, 15 and 30 finishes his two times here, 9th in approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 60th in driving distance, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 34th in proximity 150-175 yards, 17th in proximity 200+ yards, 36th in proximity 175-200 yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 136th in putting, 23rd in opportunities gained, 47th in birdie+ gained, 25th in bogie avoidance, Top 10 in driving, approach and short game over the past 12 rounds. In that span, he's averaging 0.33 strokes more than the next closest player in the field T2G per round, used a boost on him on Caesars

Ludvig Aberg: 10500: +1500 - Has the talent to win anywhere and maps out great for this course, MC in his debut here in 2022, 8,25,19,2,9,30,47,1,10,13,2,14,64,MC,4 finishes in his last 16 events, 10th in approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 16th in driving distance, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in proximity 150-175 yards, 21st in proximity 200+ yards, 55th in proximity 175-200 yards, 32nd in SG: ARG, 21st in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 5th in bogie avoidance, got a boost on him on Caesars

Corey Conners: 9400: +2800 - Defending champion with elite course history with two wins here last year and in 2019 and 1,35,14,1,26 finishes here, solid form coming in with 13,18,41,24,28,31,57,33,44,26,10,6,52,19,9 finishes in his last 15 events, 2nd in approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 67th in driving distance, 18th in Par 5 scoring, 18th in proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in proximity 200+ yards, 88th in proximity 175-200 yards, 128th in SG: ARG, 145th in putting, 28th in opportunities gained, 71st in birdie+ gained, 54th in bogie avoidance

Keith Mitchell: 7600: +6500 - Has had some solid finishes this season, 17 and 26 finishes his two times here, MC,17,73,9,19,17,54,MC,9,30 finishes in his last ten events, 32nd in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 25th in driving distance, 16th in Par 5 scoring, 30th in proximity 150-175 yards, 4th in proximity 200+ yards, 41st in proximity 175-200 yards, 116th in SG: ARG, 142nd in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 19th in birdie+ gained, 51st in bogie avoidance

Erik Van Rooyen: 7400: +8000 - Pops in my model this week and he's playing good golf with his stats lining up nicely for this course, MC and 14 finishes his two times here, MC,25,2,8,MC,20,25,52,22,1,23,16,30 finishes in his last 13 events, 6th in approach, 23rd in SG: OTT, 46th in driving distance, 4th in Par 5 scoring, 31st in proximity 150-175 yards, 61st in proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in proximity 175-200 yards, 124th in SG: ARG, 33rd in putting, 20th in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained, 80th in bogie avoidance