It's easy to look at this week's UFC card and immediately dismiss it. After all, it's an early afternoon APEX card that's only happening there because it got rejected by Saudi Arabia. It's also sandwiched between last week's Mexico City card and next week's fantastic looking UFC 299 pay-per-view event. The prelims feel like a combination of squash matches and Contender Series level bouts. The main event pits a Heavyweight gatekeeper against an opponent with one UFC fight on their resume, and without a Wikipedia page. The co-main event features a prospect against a can crusher. The two ranked matchups are both in the Flyweight division. There's an unbeaten Nurmagomedov on the card, but it's not Khabib.
To a lot of fans, this will feel like a throwaway card. Upon closer glance though, the main event has some appeal with every fight. There are two ranked matchups, both of which should be intriguing and entertaining scraps that will have an impact in the Flyweight division. If the unbeaten prospects win the main and co-main events, they could get notable pushes and become prospects worth following. And again, there is an unbeaten Nurmagomedov on the card, and he could become a notable player with a win too.
This is a low-key intriguing main card, takes place at a very fan-friendly start time for those who don't have to work on a Saturday, and it should yield some quality highlights. Compared to various other APEX cards, it's actually kind of interesting, even if the odds may not reflect it. The prelims are 90% predictable fights, even in a sport that can yield crazy upsets, so I'm going to bypass it this time. As for the main card, here's what I see happening over the course of the five-fight slate.
Main Card (4/3c, ESPN+)
(9) Matt Schnell (16-7, 1 NC) vs. (12) Steve Erceg (11-1)
Ranked Flyweight battles are usually fun, so Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg is a great choice to open up this interesting main card. Schnell's whole schtick is being an entertaining but inconsistent player in the division, having had six of his last eight fights end via finish. He's only recorded six decisions in 25 pro fights, which is a crazy low rate for the division, and is 2-3 with a no contest since his four-fight winning streak.
Erceg is the more composed fighter in this matchup, has won ten straight fights and has a chance to cement a top ten ranking with a win. I don't like how favored he is in this fight, but I get why he is. If he fights the way he's capable of, he should come away with a decision or a late finish. I'd love to see Schnell pull off a vintage victory, but I have to roll with the momentum and pick the streaking fighter. Prediction: Erceg via decision.
Bekzat Almakhan (14-1?) vs. (13) Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0)
Next up is a quality fight between Umar Nurmagomedov and Bekzat Almakhan. I have no idea what Almakhan's true record is. Some places list it as 11-1. The UFC says it's 14-1. Other places say 16-1. Whatever it may be, the fact of the matter is that he's beaten some fairly experienced opponents lately, and he's an entertaining knockout artist. I'm still going to pick Nurmagomedov to beat him and go to 5-0 in the UFC though. Prediction: Nurmagomedov via submission, round 2.
(7) Alex Perez (24-7) vs. (8) Mohammad Mokaev (11-0, 1 NC)
This fight should be the main event. Despite being ranked eighth in the division, Mokaev might be a win or two away from a title shot. He's 5-0 in the UFC, has finished four of those fights and is facing a former title challenger in this one. His list of opponents doesn't warrant a title shot, but a win over Perez would be enough to warrant a title eliminator opportunity.
Perez had a great start to his UFC career, but has been submitted within two minutes in each of his last two fights. Those losses were against then-champion Deiveson Figueiredo and current champion Alexandre Pantoja though, who are both elite-tier fighters. Mokaev has contender potential, and Perez is the perfect fighter to test his mettle. I don't think Mokaev will hand Perez his third straight submission loss, but I do trust him to do enough to come away with the victory. Prediction: Mokaev via decision.
Vitor Petrino (10-0) vs. Tyson Pedro (10-4)
Let's be clear about one thing; Tyson Pedro is one of the worst co-headliners in recent memory. That said, this fight is all about Petrino getting a spotlight against an opponent that's always involved in quick fights. Petrino's first four pro fights were against laughable competition, but he did beat former UFC vet Gadzhimurad Antigulov and a quality opponent in the Contender Series to follow that up. His UFC debut was against an awful opponent, but his other two UFC wins are against opponents who are at least somewhat decent. Now he faces Tyson Pedro, who is 3-1 since returning from a long injury hiatus in 2022, but has even worse wins in that span than Petrino does. This has slobber-knocker written all over it. I have to pick Petrino, and I can't say I trust either guy to make an impact in the UFC beyond this fight, but at least the fight should be fun while it lasts. Prediction: Petrino via tko, round 2.
(12) Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5) vs. Shamil Gaziev (12-0)
In the main event, Jairzinho Rozenstruik headlines another APEX card, despite losing three of his last four fights and being just 3-5 since 2019. What makes this fight interesting is that the UFC is booking an unbeaten Bahrainian, who has one UFC fight to his record and no Wikipedia page, in the main event against him.
Rozenstruik is a known commodity at this point. He is a Heavyweight striker and gatekeeper whose only losses have come against highly-ranked competition, and then against highly-touted prospect Jailton Almeida. He should be able to defeat a guy with one UFC fight, that too against a subpar opponent, and only one other notable win on his resume. But what if he doesn't? What if Gaziev is the real deal and comes away with the win against him? It's not out of question, and a win over Rozenstruik would turn Gaziev into a ranked, unbeaten prospect with contender potential.
Do I think Gaziev will win? No. I think Rozenstruik will coast for a bit and eventually win within three rounds if he really wants to. But again, Rozenstruik has lost three of four, and maybe it's all caught up to him. I'll pick Rozenstruik, but a win for Gaziev would be very interesting. Prediction: Rozenstruik via tko, round 3.
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