Bantamweight Bout
Angel Pacheco vs Caolan "The Don" Loughran - Pacheco has finished all 7 of his pro wins so he's dangerous, and he showed ridiculous durability on the Contender Series which is what earned him his UFC contract. Danny Silva hit him with everything but the kitchen sink and Pacheco just wouldn't go away, and we just saw Danny Silva look good against Josh Culibao in his own debut. Still, being able to take a beating isn't enough to make me think you're good enough to be here. If Loughran had never won a decision before, maybe there would be some concern that he might gas out and Pacheco could score a finish, but we've seen him win a decision so that's not really there. Pacheco got entirely outclassed and while Loughran isn't the same type of striker, I'll still say he outclasses him as well.
Pick: Caolan Loughran by Decision
Middleweight Bout
Andre Petroski vs Jacob "Mamba" Malkoun - This is a tough fight to call as I expect Petroski to have success early and an early finish in his favor wouldn't shock me, but he's shown cardio issues and Malkoun can definitely start to take over the longer the fight goes. This really depends on what version of Petroski we get in this fight, because we've seen him have improved cardio at times when he paces himself and fights a bit smarter. If he does that here, Malkoun's takedown defense isn't good, he hasn't defended a single takedown attempt in the UFC. Every opponent that's tried to take Malkoun down has succeeded 100% of the time, and against a powerful wrestler like Petroski, even if he gets tired, he can fall back on that. I expect Petroski to dominate early and slow down late, but be able to fall back on his wrestling to still edge out the rounds.
Pick: Andre Petroski by Decision
Women's Flyweight Bout
Melissa Gatto vs Victoria Dudakova - I think Gatto still has some potential, but it's hard to pick her right now, especially against a fighter like Dudakova. Dudakova is undefeated and well-rounded and can likely beat Gatto no matter where the fight goes. Gatto has only beaten low end fighters outside her win over Karol Rosa outside the UFC, and the power, accuracy, and wrestling of Dudakova are going to win out.
Pick: Victoria Dudakova by Decision
Light Heavyweight Bout
Ibo "The Last Ottoman" Aslan vs Anton "The Pleasure Man" Turkalj - This is a rematch as Aslan's only career loss came at the hands of Turkalj. I doubted Aslan going into the Contender Series and while he picked up a decent win, I still saw some holes in his game. Turkalj beat him before, and Aslan beat 3 fighters with negative records before beating an unproven fighter with an early knockout on Contender Series. It's only been 3 and a half years and I don't know if Aslan has made the necessary improvements to beat a fighter like Turkalj. Turkalj is durable but he can be knocked out, so barring him getting knocked out early, he should be able to get Aslan to the floor and submit him again.
Pick: Anton Turkalj by Submission RD 2
Featherweight Bout
Connor "The Controller" Matthews vs Dennis "The Great" Buzukja - I have a sneaking feeling that Buzukja can win this fight. He's the younger fighter, he's got a great team behind him, he's been facing better competition in the UFC, he's the betting favorite, but he hasn't actually gotten a win in the UFC yet. Matthews is making his debut here after earning his contract on the Contender Series and he showed a lot of improvement as that was his second time on the show. He's started training with the New England Cartel and has improved his striking a lot. He's also the more aggressive fighter and has solid grappling as well, so I like him as an underdog here. Buzukja might catch him, but if he doesn't, I see him dropping rounds to the more active and aggressive fighter.
Pick: Connor Matthews by Decision
Featherweight Bout
Julio Arce vs Herbert "The Blaze" Burns - Both of these fighters are getting older and haven't fought in a long time. Burns is coming off a pair of losses though and both were knockouts. Burns is dangerous early on, but he fades and Arce is a fighter who's durable and can fight the entire 15 minutes. That's exactly what I expect to happen in this fight, as Burns will have some moments early, but Arce will come back and put him away in the second or third.
Pick: Julio Arce by KO/TKO RD 2
Women's Strawweight Bout
Virna "Carcara" Jandiroba vs "Loopy" Lupita Godinez - This fight is most likely going to decision and won't be very entertaining. Godinez is a pressure and volume fighter and she will look to overwhelm Jandiroba and win the rounds. Unless Jandiroba can use that pressure against her and catch her in a submission, she'll likely lose the rounds and lose on points, which is what I expect.
Pick: Lupita Godinez by Decision
Featherweight Bout
Nate "The Train" Landwehr vs Jamall "Pretty Boy" Emmers - Landwehr is a slight betting underdog but a favorite in the fan voting on Tapology. He's a popular fighter, but this looks like a bad matchup for him. Emmers is the better striker, he has more tools to attack with, he's more accurate, better defensively, and he's the better wrestler as well. Landwehr sets a high pace and throws a lot of volume, so there's a chance that he can overwhelm Emmers, and if he can get him to the floor he should have an advantage, but I see him struggling to do either with Emmers having the reach and better technique.
Pick: Jamall Emmers by Decision
Welterweight Bout
Chidi "Bang Bang" Njokuani vs Rhys "Skeletor" McKee - The last time that Njokuani cut to 170lbs was in 2016. That's not something that gets easier and he's now 35 and 6'3". That's really the only thing that worries me though. McKee isn't a wrestling threat, he's a volume striker that is going to walk right into the power shots of Njokuani as he also has terrible defense. The weight cut is a bit of worry, but not enough to make me think that Njokuani doesn't knock McKee out early.
Pick: Chidi Njokuani by KO/TKO RD 1
Featherweight Bout
Bill "Senor Perfecto" Algeo vs Kyle "The Monster" Nelson - Nelson had one foot out the door but has since rebounded with a pair of wins to save his place on the roster. He's better than I thought he was, but he also beat two very flawed and inconsistent fighters. Algeo is a fighter I've criticized frequently, but his mediocre skill set is mid-level and consistent at least. Nelson can be competitive in this fight, but Algeo throws more volume and is more effective so he should win the rounds.
Pick: Bill Algeo by Decision
Middleweight Bout
Nursulton "Black" Ruziboev vs Sedriques "The Reaper" Dumas - This fight doesn't make sense. Yes Dumas is 2-1 in the UFC coming off back-to-back wins while Ruziboev is only 1-0 in the UFC, but Ruziboev has a lot more experience overall and scored a much better win in his debut than both the wins that Dumas has picked up. That win immediately put Ruziboev into the top 25 range whereas Dumas is still near the bottom of the division making a name for himself. Ruziboev should outclass Dumas here as he can beat him no matter where the fight goes. Ruziboev should be able to hurt Dumas on the feet, follow him up on the mat, and lock up a submission to end it.
Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev by Submission RD 1
Middleweight Bout
Bruno "Blindado" Silva vs Chris "All American" Weidman - Weidman is going to have to get Silva down to the mat quickly or else he's going to get knocked out. Silva's takedown defense is pretty solid, 73% in the UFC, and he throws a lot of volume. Weidman is coming off that brutal leg break and then a loss to Brad Tavares who landed a ton of leg kicks and had him limping out. I expect Silva to land some shots to put Weidman away within two.
Pick: Bruno Silva by KO/TKO RD 1
Welterweight Co-Main Event
Vicente "The Silent Assassin" Luque vs Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley - I was kind of writing off Luque, but he rebounded with a solid win over Rafael dos Anjos to keep his place in the top 15. Buckley is a guy that has consistently failed to break into the top 15 and I don't see him doing so here against Luque. Luque sets a high pace and Buckley is an explosive athlete. Once that explosion starts to wear down, Luque is going to take over and put him away in the second or third.
Pick: Vicente Luque by KO/TKO RD 2
Women's Flyweight Bout
Erin "Cold Blooded" Blanchfield vs Manon "The Beast" Fiorot - This is a really tough fight to pick even though Blanchfield is a 2-1 favorite and I could see her dominating. Fiorot's nickname "The Beast" is really accurate, the woman is an animal and puts on a tough fight against anyone. Reviewing their stats for this fight as well, put more doubt into my mind for picking Blanchfield. Fiorot is listed as having a 64% takedown defense rate, but going over her fights, Victoria Leonardo went 0-1 on takedowns, Tabatha Ricci went 0-1, Rose Namajunas went 0-6, and the only fighter to take her down was Jennifer Maia who went 1-4 and racked up a whopping 1:16 of control time. Blanchfield is successful on 36% of her takedowns, both Namajunas and Ricci have a higher percentage than that and neither was able to even get her to the mat. I wouldn't be shocked if Blanchfield wrestles and dominates this fight, but it's 5 rounds, she isn't the fastest starter, and she's got a dog across the cage who's going to be looking to hurt her at all times. Fiorot is much more dangerous on the feet, her wrestling looks pretty solid, and I'm not worried about her grappling either. Give me Fiorot as the underdog.
Pick: Manon Fiorot by Decision
No comments:
Post a Comment