Heavyweight Bout
Mohammed "The Motor" Usman vs Mick Parkin - This is a close fight as I see both guys having an avenue to victory. Usman has the power, he can crack, and if he lands a good shot on Parkin, he can put him away. That being said, Parkin is pretty durable and he is the more active fighter. Parkin is going to be the one pressuring forward, looking to grapple, looking to land volume and outwork Usman. I also believe Parkin has better cardio, so I'm leaning towards him, but wouldn't be shocked if Usman pulls off another upset.
Pick: Mick Parkin by Decision
Flyweight Bout
Igor Severino vs Andre "Mascote" Lima - Both of these guys are decent prospects making their debuts after winning on the Contender Series. Looking back at their Contender Series wins, I was more impressed with Severino and graded him as a higher prospect than Lima. Severino was the much more aggressive fighter and there were multiple things I liked about him. One, his takedowns were very solid, and two, the way he stayed on the attack. Even though his aggression lost him a position, he stayed attacking at all times but in pretty smart ways that set him up for the win. Lima is good, but I just haven't been that impressed with him, nothing stands out. I wouldn't be shocked if Lima wins, but I like Severino as an underdog as I think his volume and aggression will help him pull off the upset.
Pick: Igor Severino by Submission RD 2
Women's Bantamweight Bout
Montserrat "Monster" Rendon vs Darya Zheleznyakova - This isn't a great fight, and obviously I think everyone is hoping that Zheleznyakova wins the fight. Rendon is coming off a win in her UFC debut over Tamires Vidal which was surprising, but all 6 of her pro wins have been by decision and she's not really great at anything. Rendon is big enough to be in the division, she's strong, and she's decent enough everywhere to keep getting wins over low end fighters so she's here. She's also 35 years old though and not a great athlete. Zheleznyakova has solid kickboxing, has finished 5 of her 8 pro wins by KO/TKO, is 28 years old, is the better athlete, and has a ton more upside. Zheleznyakova's 1 loss as a pro was a bit of a fluke as well in a fight that she was winning before an early stoppage. Rendon was able to wrestle decently well in her UFC debut and that worries me for this matchup as Zheleznyakova doesn't have good takedown defense. Either way this is a low-level fight, both fighters have paths to victory, but the one we all want to see is Zheleznyakova. She's better looking, has more upside, and her path to victory is much more exciting as she will either win by knockout, or Rendon will take her down and lay on her until the final bell.
Pick: Darya Zheleznyakova by KO/TKO RD 1
Featherweight Bout
Jarno Errens vs Steven "The Ninja" Nguyen - This is a tough fight to pick because I've seen some potential at times in Errens and even though he's 0-2 in the UFC now, he lost to 2 good fighters. His last performance against Seung Woo Choi was a bit disappointing and he didn't look great there though, so the recency bias is against him as Nguyen is coming off a big knockout win on the Contender Series that earned him his UFC contract. The opponent Nguyen fought on the Contender Series was AJ Cunningham though, who's not good, so Errens has been facing the better competition. This might be a bit of the recency bias but I am leaning Nguyen. Nguyen is the better striker and should be able to win the exchanges on the feet and has good enough defense everywhere else that he should be able to keep the fight where he wants it. If Errens can get the wrestling going though he has a shot to pull off the upset, but I think Nguyen will be too quick and throws well in combination, so he should do enough damage on the feet to win the rounds.
Pick: Steven Nguyen by Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Miles "Chapo" Johns vs Cody "The Renegade" Gibson - Gibson is old, not that good, and has lingering injuries. He's taking on Johns who's stepping in here on short notice to replace Davey Grant. Johns knew this was a good matchup for him, that's why he took the fight. Gibson is lanky and huge for the division so he can be tricky, but Johns is powerful and the better overall fighter, so he should be able to win the rounds.
Pick: Miles Johns by Decision
Featherweight Bout
Ricardo "Carcacinha" Ramos vs Julian "Juicy J" Erosa - This is a tough fight to predict as both guys are wild and could finish the fight but also because I'm a fan of both and hate to see either take a loss here. Erosa was making a solid comeback, had a nice winning streak, and then it was snapped when he got knocked out by Alex Caceres. Caceres is top 15, so that wasn't that bad of a look, but then to follow up by getting knocked out by the debuting Fernando Padilla right after, it brings back the worries of Erosa's bad defense and chin. Ramos is wild and is going to be constantly attacking, I see him getting a finish here.
Pick: Ricardo Ramos by KO/TKO RD 1
Lightweight Bout
Kurt Holobaugh vs Trey "Samurai Ghost" Ogden - This is a close fight as I feel Ogden is a bit underrated and Holobaugh is a bit overrated right now due to his last win winning him the last season of TUF. Both guys have somewhat similar styles, but Ogden is a bit younger and a bit better defensively. I could see either fighter abruptly getting a stoppage win here but I see this more likely going to a close decision. It's likely going to be razor thin but I'm leaning towards Ogden as I see him as the better athlete and better defense should help him edge it out.
Pick: Trey Ogden by Decision
Featherweight Bout
Fernando "El Valiente" Padilla vs Luis "Corazon de Leon" Pajuelo - Pajuelo looked impressive on the Contender Series, but if you read my review of that season, I definitely still had concerns. He looked immediately bigger and more powerful than his opponent on there and dropped him with the first leg kick he threw. There were multiple issues I noted being that when he had his opponent hurt, he let him off the hook and didn't follow up. On top of that, his takedown defense didn't look good, and he doesn't have a great team behind him either. Padilla came into the UFC and knocked out Julian Erosa and looked really good and then followed that up with an extremely disappointing loss to Kyle Nelson. I guess it depends what version we get of Padilla showing up here, but I like his chances either way. Pajuelo has faced low end competition and this is going to be a step up even though Padilla is inconsistent and unreliable.
Pick: Fernando Padilla by Decision
Featherweight Bout
Billy Quarantillo vs Youssef "The Moroccan Devil" Zalal - Zalal is returning to the UFC here after being cut. He's decent, and he won 3 straight to get back here, but the last opponent he beat was 0-0. Quarantillo is always a tough fight, he comes to brawl, and he should be able to overwhelm Zalal and make the fight ugly. Zalal is the more tactical fighter and should be able to survive the rounds, but he's going to be drawn into Quarantillo's type of fight.
Pick: Billy Quarantillo by Decision
Bantamweight Bout
Payton Talbott vs Cameron "MSP" Saaiman - This is an interesting fight between two young prospects. Talbott is undefeated whereas Saaiman is coming off the first loss of his career. Saaiman lost to Christian Rodriguez who has continued his ways of being the first to defeat unbeaten prospects. Saaiman has faced the better competition, he should have learned some lessons from that loss, and should be fired up to come back and get back in the win column. Talbott is a bit bigger, but he just hasn't shown that he can beat someone like Saaiman yet and doesn't have as good of a team behind him.
Pick: Cameron Saaiman by Decision
Middleweight Bout
Edmen "The Golden Boy" Shahbazyan vs AJ Dobson - If Shahbazyan can't get a win here there's no way he will still be on the roster and really should just retire. Dobson is currently 1-2 in the UFC with his only win being a decision over Tafon Nchukwi who turned out to be a complete bust and has since been cut. The only thing that worries me here is that Dobson is hard to put away. Other than that, Shahbazyan has faced much better competition and should be able to outclass him.
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan by Decision
Heavyweight Bout
Karl Williams vs Justin "Bad Man" Tafa - Either Tafa is going to score the early knockout or Williams is going to wrestle him and wear him out. Tafa has a 100% takedown defense currently in the UFC and Williams has a 62% striking defense rate, so both on paper have the skills to defend against the other. I trust Williams' striking defense more than I trust that takedown defense of Tafa, especially as Tafa doesn't throw a ton of volume whereas Williams constantly pressures and wrestles.
Pick: Karl Williams by Decision
Women's Flyweight Main Event
Amanda Ribas vs "Thug" Rose Namajunas - This is not a good main event but this is a good matchup for Namajunas. Namajunas is the better striker, is bigger, and has good enough takedown defense and grappling to stay out of danger on the mat. Namajunas has only ever been finished twice in her career, once by submission in her UFC debut for the title which was only her 4th pro fight and was facing the much more experienced Carla Esparza. Then she was knocked out by Jessica Andrade with a slam. I don't see Ribas being able to put Namajunas away is my point, which means for her to win she would have to win all 5 rounds, and she's never gone past round 3 before. This is a way to get Namajunas back on track unless she's completely fallen off.
Pick: Rose Namajunas by KO/TKO RD 2
No comments:
Post a Comment