Texas Children's Houston Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2024

Anthony Falcone

March 27

This week the PGA Tour begins the Texas swing in Houston for the Texas Children's Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

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Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7432 yards, plays long for a Par 70 course, three Par 5s, five Par 3s, two of the Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field and the other one is 630 yards and should play as a three shot hole for most of the field, three of the Par 3s are long in the 200-235 yards range with the other two way shorter at 155 and 167, the Par 4s have a huge range of different layouts and five of them are over 490 yards, tree lined fairways but if you don't miss wildly you could play between the trees, 2.5-3 inch Bermuda rough could be a bit penal between the fairway and the trees, only 19 bunkers on the course and just two water hazards in play on four holes, hitting fairways here is important, higher driving distance here vs. tour average (~290 vs. 283 yards), much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (~56% vs. 62), lower GIR percentage vs. tour average (~63% vs. 66%), above average sized elevated over-seeded Bermuda greens that are firm and severely sloped with crowned edges with small landing areas to have good scoring chances guarded by runoff areas, wind could play a big factor

Tournament Notes

This event used to be a regular season event and was moved to the fall swing season in 2020, and then now after a year of it not happening, it's back to a regular season event this year
This course has only hosted this event since 2020, so this is only the third year here

Key Stats

Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (25.9%)

Field

144 golfers - Pretty lousy field besides Scottie at the top

2022 Champion: Tony Finau (-16)

2022 Runner Up: Tyson Alexander (-12)

One and Done: Will Zalatoris

One and Done Considerations: ~~Scheffler~~, Zalatoris, Clark

Players

Sahith Theegala: 10300: +1800 - T22 and T61 finishes here the last two years, 9,6,37,5,20,64,MC,2,MC,19,1,15,13 finishes in his last 13 events, 20th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 100th in Fairways Gained, 46th in Par 3 Scoring, 35th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 26th in Proximity 200+ yards, 30th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 52nd in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 32nd in Bogie Avoidance

Will Zalatoris: 10100: +1800 - First time playing this event, MC,4,2,13,34,MC finishes since returning from injury this year, 6th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 40th in Fairways Gained, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 25th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 72nd in Par 4 Scoring, 39th in Proximity 200+ yards, 80th in SG: ARG, 85th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 27th in Birdie+ Gained, 27th in Bogie Avoidance

Tom Hoge: 9000: +5000 - 54,12,28,8,17,6,56,17,MC,38,48,MC,13,21 finishes in his last 14 events, T46 and MC finishes here, 1st in Approach, 109th in SG: OTT, 77th in Fairways Gained, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 37th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 61st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 132nd in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained, 19th in Bogie Avoidance

Aaron Rai: 8600: +6600 - T7 and T19 finishes here the last two years, MC,35,23,19,MC,33,MC,57,21,28 finishes in his last ten events, 10th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 1st in Fairways Gained, 30th in Par 3 Scoring, 63rd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 43rd in Par 4 Scoring, 33rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 65th in SG: ARG, 100th in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained, 29th in Bogie Avoidance

Doug Ghim: 8200: +7000 - First time playing this course, 67,16,16,8,12,13 finishes in his last six events after this long string of missed cuts, 14th in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 8th in Fairways Gained, 72nd in Par 3 Scoring, 130th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 102nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 37th in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 67th in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogie Avoidance

Luke List: 7500: +8000 - T57,T11,MC finishes the last three years here, Mc,56,MC,2,MC,26,50,66,22,19,20,45,18,1,25 finishes in his last 15 events, 17th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 95th in Fairways Gained, 14th in Par 3 Scoring, 21st in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 47th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 98th in SG: ARG, 91st in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 45th in Birdie+ Gained, 28th in Bogie Avoidance

Joel Dahmen: 7100: +8000 - T9 and T5 finishes here the last two years, 49,11,49,MC,41,MC,MC,72,59,7,13 finishes in his last eleven events, 8th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 7th in Fairways Gained, 109th in Par 3 Scoring, 84th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 61st in Proximity 200+ yards, 45th in SG: ARG, 143rd in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 106th in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

Guys starting on 1 have a significant advantage on Showdown slates this week, with 8-9-10 all having a birdie rate of over 12%
Scottie Scheffler is by far the best player in the field this week, by a significant margin. I even considered making him my only bet of the week but at +260, there's no one in golf history besides early 2000s Tiger that should ever even come close to those odds
I'm cutting my bet sizes this week a bit. Scottie probably blows through this field.